College Football Rankings 2011: First 10 Teams to Exit the Coaches Poll

The release of the first USA Today Coaches Poll this morning means that college football is finally upon us.

Yes, prepare your long and tearful farewell speech to baseball because we are, as of today, 27 short days away from the blessed kick-off of the 2011 season and we now have actual authorized rankings to dissect, discuss and be disgusted with.

The following slideshow takes a bold first look at the initial pollsters’ (ummm…coaches’) results and identifies the 10 teams that will drop out of the coveted Top 25 first.

These are the programs that will fly south for the winter before they would like and subsequently be replaced by birds of a different feather.

For a concise breakdown of the rankings please check out the following link:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/791920-preseason-college-football-rankings-2011-complete-usa-today-coaches-top-25

Penn State

The Nittany Lions squeaked onto to the list by virtue of capturing the No. 25 spot with 161 points, narrowly beating out Arizona State with 158 points and West Virginia with 149 points.

What makes Penn State a candidate for dropping out quickly is that they open the season against FCS Indiana State (which we’ll go ahead and forecast as a win) but then they face Alabama at home in Week 2.

The Nittany Lions aren’t likely to move up much after beating Indiana State but they are so low they will likely fall out (temporarily) if they lose to Alabama.

Though Penn State should be an improved squad you would think that the Crimson Tide will be heavily favored despite the Happy Valley venue.

The rest of the story is that if Penn State does drop out after an early loss they will more than likely find their way quickly back into the rankings with post-Alabama games at Temple, Eastern Michigan, at Indiana, Iowa, Purdue and at Northwestern.

Georgia

The Bulldogs hit the initial rankings at No. 22 but have to face one of the toughest season opening one-two punches of anyone in the Top 25.

Georgia opens 2011 with the highly touted game against Boise State in Atlanta (a game you could honestly call either way) and then gets to welcome the surging Gamecocks to Athens for an early conference opener.

The Bulldogs could easily be 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2 by the time Coastal Carolina visits on September 17 and since either of the last two options mean they’ll drop out of the rankings you have to say that Georgia is absolutely a candidate to go first.

But, they are yet another team (like Penn State) who could likely jump back in to the mix as the season continues onwards.

Missouri

Missouri debuts at No. 21 (with six points more than Georgia) and is one of five Big 12 schools to crack the preseason Top 25.

Though Missouri might make it further into the season than others two tough road games in the first four weeks (at Arizona State and at Oklahoma) make you think that if the QB transition provides more of a challenge than anticipated that the Tigers could fall either after Week 2 or Week 4.

Another interesting caveat is the opener against Miami (OH) which is a game that Missouri should win but let’s not forget that the Redhawks went 10-4 last season and return 17 starters; a near miss to Miami and an upset win by another team could cause a swap in the early season rankings.

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs fall in at No. 20 in the USA Today/ESPN poll and though the opener against Memphis in Starkville shouldn’t be a problem, the next two games (at Auburn and LSU at home) definitely create a scenario that could involve MSU dipping out after Week 2 or 3 and then back in as the season progresses.

Even though Auburn seems like a bigger unknown who knows how LSU will look after facing Oregon in the opener and then having a bit of a respite against Northwestern State in Week 2.

Mississippi State could survive Auburn and lose to LSU or that could totally flip-flop, either way if they lose a game in the first three weeks they could drop out of the Top 25 (especially given their relatively low starting position).

Auburn

The defending champs sign on in 2011 with a generous No. 19 slot and they may be among the first teams to fall next season because of their high personnel turnover combined with two “loseable” games in the first four weeks.

The Tigers return the least starters of any squad in the nation (with only six guys coming back) and also rank low in lettermen retention with just 38.

Auburn might have enough talent leftover to make some waves, but this could take time which won’t have passed when they host Mississippi State in Week 2 and then travel to Clemson in Week 3.

Just like everyone else on this list it will come down to on field performance which is a “wait and see” type of analysis, but, that said the numbers spell trouble for Auburn who could struggle all season.

Notre Dame

The Irish are one of the five teams in the preseason Top 25 that did not finish 2010 ranked and though their 2011 looks promising Notre Dame doesn’t exactly have the type of schedule that lets you carefully test the waters before you jump right in.

The preseason No. 18 ranked  Irish open up at home against an under loved USF team which may be very good, then there is a visit to the Big House to face Michigan, a home game against a stacked Michigan State squad and a road trip to play what should be a very good Pitt team.

Since we’re talking Notre Dame we know that, realistically, it will take two losses to knock them completely out of the rankings (especially given the hype) but it’s certainly possible that it could happen (i.e. they could be 2-2 after Week 4).

Ohio State

Well, the Buckeyes have to be on this list due to the reality of the unknown (how’s that for a provocative, insightful and ridiculous statement).

Yes, Ohio State has experienced so much turmoil (which is not over in reality) that anything could happen come game time which makes games at Miami (FL), at home against Colorado and Michigan State followed by road trips to Nebraska and Illinois nothing but intriguing.

I personally think OSU will hang around until Week 6 or so and then drop-out with every possibility of a return up the charts late; but at the end of the day they’ll fall before others.

Oklahoma State

Though the last thing I want to see is a Cowboys collapse I think that the three game stretch starting September 8 will, unthinkably, push Oklahoma State (listed as the lofty No. 8 team preseason) downwards and then out of the Top 25 by then end of Week 4.

OSU opens the season against Louisiana-Lafayette but then hosts what will be a very hungry Arizona team, travels to Tulsa (who was ranked in the Top 25 at the end of last season and returns everyone) and then onwards to College Station to face a very good Texas A&M team ready to avenge last year’s bizarre loss.

Unfortunately, Oklahoma State is one of those teams that doesn’t have the “clout” to stay around up top if they start losing.

Call me crazy, but the Tulsa game might be a shocker…it’s the No. 6 ranked scoring offense from 2010 (Tulsa, who returns 10 offensive starters) against the No. 61 ranked defense (OSU, who returns only five defensive starters).

Florida State

The No. 5 ranked Seminoles will almost certainly be 2-0 coming into the Week 3 showcase showdown with Oklahoma and though they’ll remain in the Top 25 regardless of the outcome of that game what happens next is completely up in the air.

If (a big “if”) they lose to Oklahoma (who is overall a more stacked team) they will still have to travel to Clemson and win the next week to stay afloat in the rankings…yes, two losses spell a huge and ugly nose dive.

There is no certainty attached to this type of list but when you look at the early match-ups in the Top 25 you have to say that FSU has as good a chance of anyone in the Top 15 of dropping two early losses.

LSU

As a disclaimer, this may be the craziest pick amongst the bunch (and I know that), but No. 4 LSU has a chance of unbelievably dropping out of the Top 25 early by virtue of an almost insane schedule.

You absolutely have to give the Tigers huge gobs of credit for scheduling the opener against Oregon in Arlington. But what’s hard to even fathom is that after the early conference opener (a road trip to face a very talented Mississippi State team), LSU will travel to face West Virginia, which has every chance of shocking a bunch of teams (and they lost to the Tigers in Baton Rouge last season by a narrow 14-20 margin).

Saying that the No. 4 team will drop out of the Top 25 early is strong stuff, but remember, even if LSU survives these early thrillers, Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn and Alabama all wait in the corridors.

A fantastic, breath-taking schedule can either bring unprecedented glory or unthinkable defeat, and so the Tigers' season will go (I just can’t wait to watch).

If LSU falls (and they could), they will be a victim of a fearless, bold and valiant schedule, which is due our collective respect.