In a Close Race...Lincecum Is The Thoroughbred.

I am a San Francisco Giants fan and have been a loyal one for over twenty years.  This article might be a bit bias, but I feel the facts I have compiled support my case.  The only other pitcher in the running for this year's NL Cy Young is Johan Santana.

This will prove why Lincecum deserves the Cy Young.

Let’s look at the main numbers in the most important pitching categories:

Pitcher	GS	Wins	Loses	IP	Quality Starts	ERA	Strikeouts	CG	WHIP	Shutouts	Home ERA	Road ERA	Batter Avg w/RISP	BAA	Leader
Lincecum	33	18	5	227	26	2.62	265	2	1.17	1	3.05	2.22	0.167	0.221	5
Webb	34	22	7	226.2	24	3.3	183	3	1.2	1	3.35	3	0.211	0.242	1
Santana	34	16	7	234.1	28	2.53	206	3	1.15	2	2.09	3.24	0.23	0.232	5

Let me start by saying the game on April 29 against Colorado was a false loss for Lincecum.  He should have gotten a no decision.  As he started his wind-up, Molina called time; Lincecum stopped his windup, the umpire then called a bogus balk which brought in a run.  He should have one less loss. 

Tim Lincecum has been the best pitcher in the National League on one of the worst teams all year.  I am getting sick and tired of hearing why Webb should win because of his wins.  If you are any type of writer and say this you need to be fired.  Wins are an important stat, but they do not always show how well a pitcher is pitching.

How well a pitcher pitched each day and gave his team a chance to win shows more of a pitcher's ability than winning a game 7-6 and allowing 5 earned runs.  Lincecum won zero games in which he allowed 4 or more earned runs; Webb won three of those such starts while Santana won two.

Pitcher	Wins allowing 4 or more runs
Tim Lincecum	0
Brandon Webb	3
Johan Santana	2

Again Lincecum had three losses in games in which he didn't deserved losses; the balk game should have been a no-decision.  And as far as all the Webb supporters saying Lincecum should have pitched longer into games, well look who has more innings.  Those innings include starts in Houston where he got hurt 4.1 innings in and could have gone his normal 6-7 and in the first crazy game against LA where the rain delay also only let him go 4 innings.  Those are about six to seven more innings he would have had, matching pretty close to Santana.

His ERA should be close, if not lower to Santana’s from a crap switch of an error on Rich Aurillia to a hit giving him two more earned runs (Sept 23, COL).  That also includes a recent “error” against the left fielder Eugenio Valez who misjudged a fly ball and didn’t touch it, but it sailed over his head allowing two “earned” runs to score and Lincecum got another “loss” (Sept 18, @ Ariz).  Without those unfortunate events he would have a 2.46 era. 

The strikeouts speak for themselves.  Strikeouts do not make one pitcher better than the other, but they are important.  I do not want to hear anyone saying strikeouts are worthless because when there is a runner on third with one out, do you want a ground ball that could score the run or a strikeout.

The strikeouts do hurt Tim’s chances at more complete games.  His pitch count gets up to around 100 in the seventh and eighth innings and that is an area he will get better in with maturity.  That being said he pitched into the eighth inning four times, the ninth once and had two complete games with a shutout in the last eleven starts.

The WHIP is right next to Santana and shows how he is able to keep guys off base quite a bit.  He allowed very few hits, but his walks are what made his WHIP near Santana’s.  If he lowers his walks he will have a sub 1.000 WHIP. 

All of the critics who say he pitches in a pitcher’s park and gets his numbers that way, look at his road vs. home era.  He has the LOWEST away era in the national league, so that argument is gone.  And good starts against quality opponents in the Cubs (twice), Phillies (twice) and Cardinals show he can go up against the big teams as well.

His batting average against with runners in scoring position is one of the most impressive stats.  Even when guys get on base, he goes into the stretch and pitches even better.  That is the sign of a true ace, when there is a threat it is shut down.   Oh, he also has the lowest batting average against in the league.

Pitcher	GIDP	Blown W	0 runs (support)	1 run	2 runs	3 runs	ERA Men on
Lincecum	23	6	2	2	3	7	0.192
Webb	25	2	0	3	4	6	0.21
Santana	12	5	0	3	4	3	0.205

People all year were saying how Webb pitches to ground outs and gets more double plays which are keys to a lower pitch count and going deeper in games.  Well, Webb only had two more than Lincecum and Webb still had the higher ERA, fewer quality starts and fewer innings pitched. 

Lincecum should have 23 wins and two less losses, period.  That does not include the misplay in Arizona.  His bullpen gave up five of them and if Webb’s had held his he would have 24.  That is one more “would have wins” than Lincecum, how does everything else look now? 

Tim’s era with men on base is another statistic that goes to show how much ability he has in the tough and stressful situations.  Tim also had two games in which his team was shutout; neither Webb nor Santana had such starts.

At this point, Webb is out of the discussion.  Santana is the only one that deserves consideration as much as Lincecum.  His numbers are excellent and he had as many blown wins as Lincecum.  Santana is an amazing pitcher.  Both pitchers numbers are close across the board.  Lincecum has dominated and dazzled with slightly better numbers and the same hard luck

Lincecum is the winner.

Stats and information compiled partly from ESPN.com and Stats.com