2011 NFL Predictions: How Kevin Kolb Affects the Arizona Cardinals

In a busy offseason for the Cardinals, one move will stand above the rest. As someone put it, the Arizona Cardinals' offseason in 2011 will be defined by how Kevin Kolb does. 

That's saying something, because the Cardinals have made a lot of personnel moves (even Adam Schefter noticed on Twitter). 

So what exactly does Kolb bring to the table? What are some of his strengths? His weaknesses? 

Some of them you can tell by his stats. Others, well, you just have to hear by word of mouth. 

He Is Hard-Working and Intelligent

This is something that Coach Whisenhunt has talked about, although I haven't heard of Andy Reid saying it. 

Reid did like him though, and it's certain Kolb learned a lot from the man. But these variables are hard to quantify. 

I mean, Derek Anderson claimed he worked hard...well...he added a few other choice words too. 

Still, he's going to know his stuff coming from Reid, and Whisenhunt was the man responsible for working with Ben Roethlisberger. Not to mention the transformation that Kurt Warner underwent while in AZ. 

So Kolb has the intangibles. But will he show them? 

He's Played in a West Coast Offense Until Now

This, to me, is intriguing. 

The Cardinals definitely don't run that style of offense, and I can understand why with Larry Fitzgerald. 

But why get a QB who was in it?

Here's a thought that nobody has mentioned: Maybe Kolb wasn't suited for the West Coast offense. Maybe that's why the Cardinals went out and got him—because they thought he'd work great in their system. 

Maybe that's why his stats aren't that great. 

A lot of maybes. 

Still, I do think the Cardinals simplify the offense for a few games to get Kolb's feet wet. After that, I'm interested to see how he transitions. 

He Didn't Have a Great Running Game in Philly

LeSean McCoy is an up-and-coming back, no doubt about it. But he only ran for over 100 yards once when Kolb was starting last year. His next-best total was 64 yards. 

McCoy is a better receiver out of the backfield than any of the Cards backs, but LaRod Stephens-Howlings and Beanie Wells can compensate (and who knows about Ryan Williams?). 

The point is, Kolb had to generate much of the offense through the air. He didn't rely on the running game. 

So he should be used to what he'll see in Arizona. 

Don't get me wrong—the Cards should be a little better this year. But they were supposed to focus on the run last season and didn't. 

So I still expect them to struggle. 

He Did Throw More to His TEs and Secondary Receivers

You don't think having Kolb made the Cardinals go out and get Todd Heap?

Think again. 

Other than one game, Brent Celek did do a little better with Kolb under center. Not significantly, but I remember hearing somewhere that Kolb did look his way more often than Vick. 

A bigger note is the lack of production for DeSean Jackson. In the few games that Kolb started and Jackson played in (actually three of note), Jackson had three, two and one catch. 

Concern for Larry Fitzgerald?

Nope. 

Here's why: The players he targeted more during those games? Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant, bigger possession receivers. 

Just like Larry. 

It also is a good sign for guys like Early Doucet or Braylon Edwards (should he join). Not a good sign for Andre Roberts or Chansi Stuckey really. 

Either way, it's good to know that Kolb can go to his secondary receivers, and likes big possession guys. 

His Stats Are Skewed by One Bad Game

May people keep harping on the low 70s rating for Kolb, pointing to an equal number of touchdowns and interceptions last season. 

What people don't account for last season is a bad last game against Dallas, a game in which he had no starters to work with. 

His numbers minus that game are a little better than average: 97-of-153, 1,053 yards, 63 percent completion rate, 85 rating, six TDs and four INTs. 

Not great, but like I said before, maybe he's not meant for Philadelphia's West Coast offense. 

He Wasn't Great in the Fourth Quarter Last Year

These stats may be skewed by the Dallas game, but his rating in the fourth quarter was far worse than in the other three. 

His fourth-quarter rating was a 46.2, as opposed to 102.9 in the first, 78.0 in the second and 80.3 in the third. 

Not a comforting stat, but one that should be known at this point. 

A Couple of Great Games Provide Hope

Derek Anderson's best game may have been his first last year. An 85.1 rating for the game, Anderson completed 22-of-41 for 297 yards against the Rams.

Of course, he completed 7-of-20 later in the season against them. 

Kolb may have had some so-so games last year, but one games sticks out as hope. Against Atlanta, who destroyed the Cardinals a couple of weeks before, Kolb completed 23-of-29 for 329 yards for three TDs. 

Think the Cardinals coaches didn't watch that game a few times? 

That game was far better than any game for a Cardinals QB last year. I know he won't do that every time, but I'll take what he did the week before: 21-of-31 for 253 yards. 

Against? 

The 49ers. 

'Nuff said. 

He Was Good on 2nd-and-Long

You know how many 2nd-and-longs the Cardinals got into last year?

No, you don't want to know. 

Here are Kolb's numbers on 2nd down with anywhere from three to 10 yards to go: 33-of-46, 314 yards, 71.7 percent completion rate and two TDs. 

His numbers with over six yards to go: 35-of-52, 412 yards, 67.3 percent completion rate and two TDs.

The Cardinals will get into a lot of 2nd-and-longs because of a lack of running game. 

Bring it on. 

More Two Wide Receivers?

Here's an interesting stat that I did notice about Kolb last year: His rating with three receivers on the field was 67.6, and with four it was 51.6. 

Not so great. 

But with two, his rating was 101.0. Nice! With two tight ends? 82.2. 

The Cardinals are particularly fond of two-tight-end sets, and they will be this year with their plethora of tight ends. 

You know who else has found success in two-tight-end sets? Beanie Wells. 

Just saying is all. 

Overall

In all, Kolb provides an upgrade; there's no doubt about that. 

He's going to struggle at first; there's no doubt about that either. 

But if the Cardinals can use their plethora of big targets to simplify the passing game, and also use the run game to help him adjust, I see him being the best QB in the division this season. 

Let's put it this way, folks: Bad QB play helped the Cardinals lose at least two games last season (thinking specifically of Tampa Bay and Minnesota). That would've put the Cardinals at 7-9, or tied for first. 

If Kolb can eclipse 3,000 yards and 20 TDs, while getting 60 percent on completions, wouldn't you take that?

If the Cardinals can hold the ball a little more and help out their defense, wouldn't you take that? 

I think that's why Kolb was worth the risk.