2011 Haskell Invitational: Race Preview and Predictions

The biggest race of the season for Monmouth Park, the $1 million Grade I Resorts Haskell Invitational, will be run at a mile and an eighth in the dirt on Sunday. Now in its 44th edition, it has attracted Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford and Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice, among others.

But the main reason why top three year-olds come here to run is because the last three winners of the Haskell Invitational have gone on to win their division championship honors. Looking at Lucky, Rachel Alexandra and Big Brown have all won the Eclipse Award for American Champion Three Year-Old.

The highlight of the race is the potential battle between Shackleford and the hometown duo dubbed as “Fire & Ice” which is comprised Ruler On Ice and Grade II Louisiana Derby and Grade III Pegasus Stakes winner Pants On Fire.

While the three favorites have the most attention, they should not overlook their competition. They have five very capable contenders in Astrology, Coil, Concealed Identity, JJ’s Lucky Train and Joe Vann.

Coil is the surprising morning line favorite. The son of the 2001 Haskell winner Point Given is a fast horse that won the Grade III Affirmed earlier this year at Hollywood Park, and missed only by a head in the Grade II Swaps last out.

The Haskell would be Coil’s first start over a conventional dirt track. He has the same connections of last year’s Haskell winner Looking At Lucky,

Shackleford, is the odds second choice and comes in ready with two bullet workouts. He burst into the scene with his second place finish in the Florida Derby and then his Kentucky Derby fourth and his win at the Preakness.

Even though he faded badly in the Belmont, he would relish going back to the nine furlongs distance. Also he has shown to be a different runner when running just off the leader, instead of being on the lead like he did in the Belmont. There is a lot of speed in this race.

One of the hometown favorites, Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice is next. He is a different horse since his career debut last year. After that race he came back weeks later to break his maiden at Delaware Park.

This year he has been very consistent, finishing on the board in all five of his starts. He comes into this race in great shape and a workout on July 24 of :47 3/5 for the four furlongs shows just how good he looks.

The other part of the “Fire and Ice” duo is Pants On Fire, who will have a new rider in Elvis Trujillo, replacing injured regular jockey Rosie Napravnik. He comes from scoring an impressive win in the Grade III Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth.

Before that, he bled during his ninth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, but has a resume of good performances, including an impressive win in the Grade II Louisiana Derby. His last workout was the alongside stablemate Ruler On Ice, scoring the same time of :47 3/5 for the four furlongs.

Then we have Grade III winner Astrology, who had finished third in this year’s Preakness behind Shackleford and Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom before his latest race, an extremely disappointing sixth as the 1-2 favorite in the Grade III Iowa Derby.

He is from the same connections that produced 2009 Haskell Winner Rachel Alexandra. He will have a new rider for the race in Julien Leparoux. He has made one start over the racetrack when he finished in third-place in the Garden State Stakes back in September 2010.

The last three horses are Federico Tesio winner Concealed Identity, Illinois Derby winner Joe Vann and Bay Shore winner JJ’s Lucky Train. Joe Vann is a horse that depends on being up front to show his best. He must do so here if he is to contend.

JJ’s Lucky Train has been taken back in his last two races. A change of racing style, like the one First Dude has done, that could serve him well in this race, given the amount of speed in it. Concealed Identity finished strong behind Pants on Fire in his last and has already beaten Ruler On Ice in the Tesio.

I see this race with a lot of speed, but no one to eager to go to the front at the beginning. Which makes me think the horse at the rail, Coil is going to the front taking the first quarter mile fractional.

He should be followed closely by Pants On Fire and Shackelford, with Joe Vann right behind them, and then we would have Ruler On Ice, JJ’s Lucky Train, Astrology and Concealed Identity.

In the back stretch, Pants On Fire and Shackleford would move up to challenge Coil straight up with Ruler On Ice setting up his attack right behind them and JJs Lucky Train and Concealed Identity gaining.

I see Ruler On Ice joining them and passing this trio at the top of the home stretch with Concealed Identity gaining right behind him. My prediction is that Concealed Identity will catch him and repeat his Federico Tesio victory over Ruler On Ice who should be second.

Then I see a three-way close finish between Shackleford, Pants on Fire and JJs Lucky Train, followed by Astrology, Coil and Joe Vann last.

Concealed Identity’s Preakness was deceiving. He was forced at the beginning by his jockey so he could cut to the inside and not get caught up wide at the first turn.

He was then bumped in the back stretch, forced wide, and then when about to cut back inside, he had Animal Kingdom and Dialed In pass him on the inside which forced him to give way and fall back to last. He finished out running albeit passing tired horses.

If you take that one away, he is improving and sitting on his best race yet to come. He should not have the same traffic problems he had in the Preakness with less horses, and he repeats the mount of jockey CP De Carlo from his last race, which should have served him as a learning experience.

At 12-1 odds is difficult not to bet on him.

Here is the field with horses, jockeys, weight, trainers and odds for the $1,000,000 Grade I Haskell Invitational. It will be the 12th race with a post time at 5:43 p.m. ET, run at a mile and one-eighth on dirt.

1. Coil, Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert, 3-1

2. Joe Vann, Joe Bravo, Todd Pletcher, 15-1

3. Pants On Fire, Elvis Trujillo, Kelly Breen, 4-1

4. Concealed Identity, Chris DeCarlo, Edmond Gaudet, 12-1

5. Shackleford, Jesus Castañon, Dale Romans, 5-2

6. Ruler On Ice, Jose Valdivia Jr., Kelly Breen, 4-1

7. J J's Lucky Train, Paco Lopez, William Anderson, 20-1

8. Astrology, Julien Leparoux, Steven Asmussen, 9-2