Deal for Padres' Peavy Not Expected at GM Meetings

DANA POINT, CA - The big stuff will come later. But the Phillies acquired Brad Lidge from the Astros at last year's general managers meetings, and the GMs again plan to carve out more private time for themselves at this year's gatherings, away from agents, reporters, and other such pests.

Actually, most clubs have been talking for weeks, and we've already seen a deal of modest significance—the Marlins' trade of first baseman Mike Jacobs to the Royals for reliever Leo Nunez. Additional trades are possible at these meetings, but no free agents can change teams before Nov. 14.

Not to worry, one way or another, news will be made. A quick primer on what to expect over the next few days.

Peavy and more Peavy

Padres GM Kevin Towers rolled into the meetings Saturday, a day before most teams were set to arrive. He doesn't necessarily expect to trade right-hander Jake Peavy this week. Frankly, I'd be surprised if he did.

Towers' problem is that he gave Peavy full no-trade protection through 2010 when he signed the pitcher to a contract extension last December.

Thus, Peavy effectively controls the process, and none of his five preferred National League teams represents an easy match.

The Padres already have reached an impasse with the Braves, who seemingly had the first crack at a deal. Braves officials will head straight from the meetings to Phoenix, where they will watch their top pitching prospect, right-hander Tommy Hanson, start Thursday night. In other words, Hanson isn't going anywhere before Thursday—and to hear the Braves tell it, not anywhere after that, either.

The Braves ultimately might land Peavy without giving up Hanson, but the Padres will shop around first. The Dodgers, another attractive trading partner for the Padres, also will not budge easily with their top young players. The Cubs could grow more interested as they face the potential loss of free-agent right-hander Ryan Dempster, but their talent isn't as appealing.

Chances are the talks will drag out, perhaps to the winter meetings next month in Las Vegas, perhaps even beyond. Towers will open the discussions to other teams—specifically the Yankees—only if he can demonstrate to Peavy that he made a good-faith effort with the pitcher's selected teams first.

A.J. Burnett, free at last

Of course, A.J. Burnett will exercise the opt-out clause in his contract; we've known that for months. The formal announcement is expected Monday after a face-to-face meeting between Burnett's agent, Darek Braunecker, and Blue Jays officials. After that, Braunecker can begin to talk to other clubs.

Burnett would prefer to land close to his home in Maryland, and he figures to have plenty of options, including the Red Sox and Yankees.

The Orioles and Nationals hold a geographic advantage, but that's about it.

The only way either of those clubs could entice Burnett is by making him an outrageous offer. The Nationals are not going to do that as long as Stan Kasten remains club president, and Orioles owner Peter Angelos has shown little tolerance for risk.

Burnett, who turns 32 on Jan. 3, is no guarantee to stay healthy or pitch to his ability. Staying in Toronto might be best for him—he has strong relationships with Brad Arnsberg, the Jays' pitching coach, and Roy Halladay, the staff ace. It might take Burnett a full season to get comfortable elsewhere, but his transition would be eased if he joined a team with a top pitching coach—say, the Red Sox.

The Brewers regroup

Indications are that the Brewers offered CC Sabathia $100 million—not for four years, as some in the industry expected, but five.

Regardless, a $100-million offer of any kind is impressive, even astonishing, for a team with the Brewers' revenues. Sabathia will not accept it, not when the Yankees are all but certain to offer him at least $50 million more. But the Brewers at least have made a genuine attempt to keep their ace.

Next for the Brewers: Deciding by the end of the day Monday whether to exercise their $10 million option on center fielder Mike Cameron. The best guess is that they will say yes; the market for center fielders is limited, and the Brewers lack internal alternatives.

The Phillies' next curse

Winning the World Series for the first time in 28 years was a minor challenge compared to what the Phillies face next—the difficulty of sustaining success after losing Pat Gillick as general manager.

Gillick's three previous teams—the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Mariners—still have not recovered from his departure. The Phillies, however, are in decent position to remain a perennial contender under their new GM, Ruben Amaro.

Amaro's biggest decision will be whether to re-sign left fielder Pat Burrell or replace him; Burrell is streaky offensively and below-average defensively, but unlike any of his potential replacements—Manny Ramirez, Matt Holliday and Co.—he has proven that he can thrive in Philadelphia.

The Phillies also could use another starting pitcher—their fifth spot currently is a toss-up between Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick, and J.A. Happ, with the team's top prospect, Carlos Carrasco, another possibility. And, as good as the Phillies' bullpen was this season, relievers are volatile, fluctuating from year to year.

The Mariners' managerial search

New GM Jack Zduriencik already has made changes, firing scouting director Bob Fontaine and accepting the resignation of Vice President of Player Personnel Benny Looper. His next move—the hiring of a manager—will be his most significant step yet.

Some baseball people believe that Zduriencik will lean toward Ned Yost, his former colleague with the Brewers. Yost, who helped restore the Brewers to legitimacy, would be a reasonable choice. But shouldn't the Mariners—and every other team, for that matter—be looking for the next Joe Maddon?

The Mariners' clubhouse is highly factionalized, and a Maddon type is necessary to bring the various cliques together. White Sox bench coach Joey Cora, who possesses the advantage of being bilingual, at least deserves a look.

The next Maddon is out there; the M's need to go find him.

This article originally published on FOXSports.com.

Read more of Ken's columns here.