NBA Top 10 Under 30: Whose Game Will Age Well, and Whose Won't?

Some players age more gracefully than others. All health issues aside, this depends mostly on the balance between basketball skills and raw athletic ability.

The latter can and do fade as the years add up; the former do not. More often than not, they actually evolve over time, which will serve to offset the loss of one's physical gifts.

With this in mind, I humbly submit my top 10 players under 30 years old:

Derrick Rose, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Amar'e Stoudemire and Dwyane Wade (who barely qualifies at age 29).

It wouldn't be a top 10 without a No. 11...Carmelo Anthony is it. Sorry 'Melo, somehow Griffin makes a more interesting entry for this topic than you do. For the record, you probably would have placed high on the list.

The idea, as you've no doubt gathered already, is to predict who will best be able to maintain their level of play as their odometers climb out of their primes.

10. Blake Griffin

To start things off on a pessimistic note, we have Blake Griffin. The athletic freak, the flying freight train, the guy who bangs his elbow on the rim during a two-handed 360-windmill (pictured). Griffin's recipe for success at the moment is unfortunately the farthest on this list from being sustainable in the long run.

Right now, Griffin's success is largely dependent on his springs. That aspect of his game just happened to be an overwhelming weapon right out of the gate, but how long can he keep this up?

There will come a time—one which may come sooner than we'd all prefer—when Griffin will have to do less bouncing. If he expects to maintain his productivity, he'll be forced to cultivate the finer aspects of the 4 position.

Among other things, he'll need to develop his already decent footwork, a dependable mid-range game and, generally, a more cerebral approach to the action on the floor.

That's not to say it won't likely happen but, all things remaining equal, Blake Griffin's current incarnation is on borrowed time.

9. LeBron James

The one thing LeBron will always have going for him is his excellent court vision and understanding of passing angles. That component of his game will make him a threat well into his twilight years...or will it?

What you have to consider is that a lot of those solid passes are made possible by the state in which today's LeBron can put opposing defenses by his sheer athletic presence.

He's a guy who will force your defense to break down, then put the ball right on the money. But what happens when his all-powerful physical gifts leave him?

LeBron himself knows that a time is coming when his wheels will begin to go, and we'll have a gradually less explosive LBJ who will no longer strike the fear he once did in the hearts of opposing teams.

The double-teams come less often, defenses adapt more effectively and maybe all of a sudden those assist totals take a noticeable dip.

As far as the tomahawks, rebounding, fast breaks, chasedowns and general physical dominance...those have nowhere to go but downhill as the years tick away.

8. Derrick Rose

Coming in at No. 8, your reigning MVP.

We all loved the guy from day one because we marveled at his lightning-quick foot speed and his ability to shift gears, turn corners, jump out of the gym and make an all-around mockery of physics.

Some will be quick to point out that Rose has since gotten very serious about being a more complete player, with dramatic results. While this is true, it ignores the fact that raw athletics is still a very central element of who Derrick Rose is on the floor.

Some players have the gift of brawn, which is less likely to leave them as the mileage piles up; not so with the gift of mobility. Rose's unparalleled lateral explosiveness is no exception.

Will he remain effective? With his work ethic, I fully expect him to develop the tools to remain a top-10 point guard until he retires. The question, however, is whose games will suffer the least with age—and I think a drop-off is unavoidable in Rose's case.

7. Dwight Howard

First, let's state the obvious: Dwight Howard will always be big. Unless he continues playing for decades into that age range where human beings actually begin to shrink, he'll always have that fact on his side.

But like the others on this list so far, his elite status is largely predicated on his unnatural ability to get off the ground. In Howards's case, this translates into monster dunks, impossible blocked shots and an overwhelming presence on the boards.

I think Howard will always leave his mark on the defensive end (which helped him climb up the list a little), but those gaudy shot-blocking and rebounding numbers will taper off as Superman gradually and figuratively leaves the building.

As far as his offense, we still have no proof that Howard can handle himself in the absence of his raw physical talent. What happens when time forces him to be more Kevin McHale and less Darryl Dawkins? He's at that point in a big man's career when he should have some semblance of a low-post arsenal to fall back on.

This mild stagnation in Howard's progress will only get more and more glaring on old legs.

6. Dwyane Wade

Now we come to Dwyane Wade, who is the closest one on this list to being 50/50 body-and-mind out on the court.

One of Wade's more unique physical gifts is his uncanny ability to upgrade plays, as I call it for lack of a better term. He routinely turns what ought to be a layup into a tomahawk dunk, a simple contest into a spike block, or a charge into a Euro-step and finish.

With Wade pushing 30, this skill has already begun subtly eroding, but it still manifests regularly. More importantly, his success doesn't hinge on it either way.

His mid-range game is enough to keep defenses honest, he uses footwork over speed to get in the paint, and, like his more ballyhooed sidekick, he has above-average playmaking skills. These are traits that age well.

I expect Wade to continue attacking the basket for years, but his days of downright embarrassing defenses are numbered. His perimeter D should endure nicely, but the big blocks (pictured) and the transition stops will remain in the past.

All in all, a drop-off in highlight-friendly plays shouldn't render Wade too ineffective as his body breaks down...which it likely will one day, judging by the way he plays. But as far as the stud he is today, I give that guy two more years.

5. Amar'e Stoudemire

Amar'e Stoudemire, the NBA's other young low-post stud, makes the top half of the list by virtue of his much more refined low-post repertoire, where power moves make up one chapter rather than the whole book.

As Amar'e gets on in years, Knick fans should expect to see him play at or near an All-Star level on the offensive end thanks to his size and his educated hands and feet. When the bounce is gone from his legs, his game stands to suffer the least out of everyone on this list from being grounded.

Defenders will still have to worry about being scored on; they just won't have to worry about getting a Spalding face tattoo in the process.

As for the defensive end...well, to be honest, he doesn't really set the world on fire as it is. Aside from the occasional monster block, aging shouldn't really take away from his current performance on D. Maybe with time, he learns how to plug the middle better.

4. Deron Williams

First off, we all know Williams is a steady ball-handler, an above-average shooter, an elite playmaker and a solid defender.

This is all true, however, a lot of D-Will's offense is made possible by quick bursts and a measure of physical robustness. He normally creates by burning his defender and more or less trucking his way around any backup that comes. After a time, this will be harder to do at will.

By the time Williams is 30-something, it will likely be possible to consistently stop him off the dribble. This will naturally make shooting and court vision more important, and there's no reason to think either of these will abandon him, regardless of age.

In fact, Williams should only get smarter with time, so at best he improves his shot selection and maintains the shooting touch. That being said, the stop-n-go penetrating style (pictured) that more or less characterizes him right now has a debatable shelf life.

3. Rajon Rondo

Rajon Rondo is the epitome of the mental player. Aside from being agile and light on his feet, his style of basketball is played entirely between the ears.

First and foremost, he's perhaps the NBA's best playmaker; the only possible knock on him would be his wealth of passing options versus a Chris Paul or a Steve Nash.

Secondly, Rondo may also be the NBA's best improvisationalist. Very few guys can keep a defense guessing the way he does, and that's not likely to change too much when age starts to slow him down.

Rondo does have his fair share of foot races and flying lunges to the basket, and those will not come as easily when he's in his mid-30s. But that's maybe 10 percent of his game.

Finally, when Rondo is on the decline, it's not like anyone will miss his scoring...because he's really not about that. He'll just spend his twilight years dribbling through and around defenses, finding 10 or so teammates per game for the bucket and being a royal pest on defense.

Kind of like now, but with laugh lines.

2. Chris Paul

In a nutshell, CP3 beats Rondo for second by being a far more dependable scorer.

Like Rondo and unlike Deron Williams, Chris Paul's way of getting through the defense is relatively low impact; he relies more on his ability to keep the ball on a string while snaking between defenders.

Rather than force the action, Paul has a certain patience that lets the play come to him. This also preserves his body from excess abuse, which can accumulate after a decade or so in the league.

Speed is most definitely still a key component, and a few years from now, people may find themselves reminiscing wistfully about Paul's ability to push the ball in transition.

But in the halfcourt, where lack of foot speed is easily covered up by capable ball-handling, timely playmaking and smooth scoring, expect Paul to remain among the top point guards in the league.

Defensively, not much will be lost aside from the occasional feats of raw speed. A tenacious mindset combined with the aforementioned ability to weave between bodies (i.e. screens) will make getting by even an aging CP3 a frustrating experience.

1. Kevin Durant

And finally we come to the NBA equivalent of a fine Beaujolais.

Kevin Durant is the most natural scorer in the league, which is no secret. He's so good, he makes you forget that he's rail-thin and his shot selection is still not perfect.

It's the shooting touch. The guy has pretty much the longest range in the league, and he uses every one of those six feet and nine inches to give himself one of the most un-guardable jumpers in a long time.

Like everyone on this list, that's not to say his youth and physical exuberance don't come in handy from time to time (just ask Brendan Haywood). What you don't often hear discussed is that his legs are probably taking less punishment just based on his slight frame. Both he and his game are built for longevity.

So, when Durant is 33, I think he'll look more like his current self than anyone else on this list. And when he does slow down, we probably won't notice it much, because he'll still make an art out of rising up and stroking jumpers all night.

Between the huge numbers and the sustainable level of play, Kevin Durant has the best chance out of anyone to top the all-time scoring list. Imagine him scoring around 2,000 points a season for the next fifteen years...