College Football 2011: 5 Worst-Case Scenarios for the Michigan State Spartans

The Michigan State Spartans had a very successful season in 2010. They won 11 games en route to a Capital One Bowl appearance against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Although they got throttled in that game 49-7, they finished the season ranked 14th in the nation.

Head coach Mark Dantonio's up-and-down tenure at the helm of the Spartans, including four consecutive bowl-game losses, makes this a very important season for him. The expectations heading into the season are higher than they have been in a long time at Michigan State.

The Spartans are expected to be ranked somewhere within the top 15 when the first polls are released. Increased expectations means increased pressure on a head coach. Despite his positive results in 2010 and very reasonable salary, Dantonio can expect to come under fire should Michigan State fail to impress in 2011.

With that in mind, here are five “doomsday” scenarios for Michigan State heading into the season that could ultimately land Dantonio on the hot seat.

Kirk Cousins Suffers an Injury Early in the Season

In his second season as the starting quarterback of the Michigan State Spartans, Kirk Cousins became a very efficient game manager. Although the term game manager usually has a negative connotation among fans, Cousins is exactly the type of quarterback the Michigan State offense needs.

With a backfield trio of Edwin Baker, Larry Caper and Le'Veon Bell, the Spartans are going to be able to grind out a lot of yards on the ground. It is extremely beneficial to have three tailbacks you can trust. This allows a coach to keep one of them fresh for the fourth quarter when the defense is worn down.

With the three-headed running back monster leading the offensive attack, Cousins should only need to make a few big passes each game to move the chains. He raised his completion percentage to 67 percent in 2010 after being at 60 percent in 2009. If he can cut down on the interceptions, he will be even more successful.

So, Cousins obviously isn't the most talented member of the offensive unit, so why would losing him be such a crushing blow? It all boils down to the lack of depth behind the senior gunslinger. Cousins has 29 games and 709 pass attempts under his belt at the collegiate level. His main backup, Andrew Maxwell, has just five games of experience and completed just 44 percent of his passes.

If Cousins goes down early in the season, even though his role is simply to manage the game, it would be a huge blow to Michigan State's lofty aspirations.

The Linebacking Core Struggles After Losing 2 Key Pieces

Following the 2010 season, the Michigan State Spartans bid adieu to its top two tacklers. Linebackers Greg Jones and Eric Gordon, who combined to make 198 tackles last season, both finished their careers with the Spartans. Jones was drafted in the sixth round of the NFL draft by the New York Giants.

This leaves two big holes in the linebacking core. Chris Norman, Steve Gardiner and Denicos Allen are expected to get the first crack at winning the three spots. The three of them combined to make 98 tackles last season, exactly 100 less than Jones and Gordon. There will be a learning curve early in the season, no matter who wins the positional battle.

A weak set of linebackers will pose several problems for the Spartans. Most notably, Michigan State finished third against the run in the Big Ten last season. That ranking could drop dramatically if a new set of linebackers struggle in run support. Michigan State should be able to burn a lot of clock with their running game but, if they allow the opponent to do the same, the possibility for an upset increases greatly.

Other problems that could come back to bite the Spartans include pass-defense and pass-rushing. The Jones and Gordon tandem had six quarterback hurries, five pass breakups, three interceptions and three sacks last season. Norman showed some ability in pass coverage during his 10 starts last season, but Gardiner and Allen are untested.

Stopping the run is one of the most important aspects of football and, if Michigan State's new group of linebackers fail to do it, the Spartans will struggle.

Fail to Defend the Paul Bunyan Trophy Against Michigan

Michigan State took control of the Paul Bunyan Trophy with a 34-17 triumph at The Big House last season. Despite the Spartans victory in 2010, Michigan still holds the all-time series lead 34–22–2. And you can bet Michigan will be gunning to regain the trophy at Spartan Stadium after failing to defend its home turf last year.

Michigan is ranked outside the preseason Top 25 by most outlets, but quarterback Denard Robinson returns after an impressive sophomore campaign. Robinson totaled 4,175 yards of total offense last season, including over 2,500 yards through the air, while being sacked just seven times. The duel threat quarterback will undoubtedly be giving defenses fits again.

The Wolverines are a veteran team with juniors or seniors making up most of the starting lineup. They are expected to have 10 returning starters on offense and eight on defense, which means if they can fill the other holes effectively, they could surprise some people in 2011.

Darryl Stonum, Junior Hemingway and Roy Roundtree make up one of the best receiving cores in the Big Ten and gives Robinson more than enough weapons to destroy an opposing defense. On defense, Ryan Van Bergen and Mike Martin anchor a defensive line that should be able to wreak havoc in the backfield.

Barring an unexpected event prior to their Oct. 15 meeting, Michigan State will be favored heading into the 59th annual Paul Bunyan Trophy game. If the Spartans allow Michigan to enact revenge for last season's defeat, it would be a tough pill to swallow.

Fail to Finish with a Record Above .500

Although the Michigan State Spartans open the season with three cupcakes in their first four games, there are eight games on the schedule where a loss is possible.

Sept. 17 at Notre Dame: Ranked inside the Top 25 by most early prognosticators, the Fighting Irish are led by a strong group of receivers and a stout defensive line. Quarterback Dayne Crist returns from knee injury and will have his top two targets, Michael Floyd and Theo Riddick, at his disposal. The defense returns nine starters and is led by linebacker Manti Te'o.

Oct. 1 at Ohio State: The turmoil at Ohio State should make this game more winnable than it appeared when the date was first announced. That said, the Buckeyes still have a lot of talent on the roster and will have had four games to prepare for the Spartans. With Jim Tressel's resignation and Terrelle Pryor's decision to leave school, the Buckeyes will look a lot different in 2011.

Oct. 15 vs. Michigan: See previous slide.

Oct. 22 vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin scored more than 40 points per game last season, and return most of the offensive line and running back James White who powered the attack. Finding a replacement for quarterback Scott Tolzien will be the main goal of the Badgers in the early weeks of the season, but they should be a well-oiled machine by the end of October. Wisconsin also sports one of the best cornerback duos in the Big Ten with Antonio Fenelus and Devin Smith.

Oct. 29 at Nebraska: Taylor Martinez flew under the radar for most of the 2010 season, but he proved to be a terrific duel-threat quarterback. Rex Burkhead will take over the main rushing duties from the NFL-bound Roy Helu. Burkhead gained nearly 1,000 yards last season. The defense returns seven starters from a group that finished third in the Big Ten in scoring defense.

Nov. 12 at Iowa: If this was a home game, it wouldn't have made the list. However, the Iowa Hawkeyes only lost two home games last season. Both came against top-10 teams, Wisconsin and Ohio State, by a grand total of four points. Marvin McNutt is a game-changing wide receiver while the Hawkeye defense has five returning senior starters.

Nov. 26 at Northwestern: The Northwestern Wildcats return nine starters on offense, including quarterback Dan Persa and receiver Jeremy Ebert. Defensive end Vince Browne and strong safety Brian Peters are the impact players on defense. This is the final game of the regular season for both teams, meaning it will likely be very important.

The Spartans schedule poses quite a few challenges. While they are probably better than most of these teams on paper before the season, if the losses start to mount it could become a slippery slope toward a disastrous season.

Don't Qualify for or Lose in a Bowl Game

After making great strides last season, it would be a rough time for Spartan fans if Michigan State loses in a bowl game for the fifth straight season under Mark Dantonio. That said, it would be devastating if the Spartans fail to qualify for a bowl game after such high preseason expectations.

There is no doubt that the pieces are in place for a solid season. The offensive quartet of Kirk Cousins, Edwin Baker, Keith Nichol and B.J. Cunningham should ensure consistent offensive production, but there are question marks along the offensive line that need to be addressed.

On defense, the front four and secondary are both good enough to be part of a top-10 team, but the linebackers will need to prove they belong in the same category. Special teams is also an area that will remain in limbo until the position battles are decided.

At the end of the day, the Michigan State should contend for the Big Ten title and a trip to a BCS bowl game. There are no guarantees, however, and the possibility of a chain reaction of disasters leading to a miserable season always exists. Spartan fans will hope the bad luck is located somewhere other than East Lansing in 2011.