College Football Predictions 2011: 5 Non-BCS Teams Who Can Crash the BCS Party

Since its inception prior to the 1998 season, the Bowl Championship Series has matched up college football’s premier programs hailing from the sport’s top conferences. Over the past 13 years, there have been a few non-automatic qualifiers who have made their presence known and crashed the BCS party, however.

Schools from non-BCS conferences have competed in a BCS Bowl seven times over the course of the system’s life. Boise State, Utah (now of the Pac-12) and TCU have made two appearances each, while Hawaii has made one. Despite the fact that these smaller schools are usually considered heavy underdogs, they have fared quite well traditionally, earning a 5-2 record overall.

While most of these schools continue to be overlooked by the BCS system, they certainly have a soft spot in the hearts of many college football fans. If their own favorite team is unable to go all the way in a given year, it isn’t uncommon for fans to align themselves with successful non-BCS schools due to the fantastic story it creates when David takes on, and often slays Goliath.

While some of the aforementioned teams have gained respect from the human voters over the past five or so seasons, it remains very difficult to reach a BCS Bowl game without automatic-qualifier status. In fact, if a non-BCS team doesn’t go undefeated, they have virtually no chance of playing in a BCS Bowl, and even if they do go undefeated, there are no guarantees.

Here are the top five non-BCS schools that have a chance to go undefeated and play in a BCS Bowl game in 2011.

5. SMU Mustangs

As a 7-7 team last season in the ho-hum Conference USA, it may be difficult for some to envision the SMU Mustangs playing spoiler in the BCS picture 2011. While it’s certainly improbable and unlikely that the Mustangs will run the table this season, they are the dark horse among non-automatic qualifiers to do so.

Buoyed by an incredible 18 returning starters in total, SMU should have plenty of continuity, which is obviously a huge advantage in college football. While the Mustangs will have to make some strides defensively, offense should not be a problem in 2011.

Although SMU suffered just one loss on offense, it will be a significant one in the form of top receiver Aldrick Robinson. Despite the fact that Robinson led the team in receiving yards and touchdowns last season, Cole Beasley and Darius Johnson should have no problem picking up the slack.

Junior quarterback Kyle Padron will be calling the signals in his second full season in 2011. Padron made the Mustangs go last year, totaling over 4,000 total yards and 35 total touchdowns in SMU’s pass-happy offense. The Mustangs certainly weren’t averse to running the ball, though, as sophomore running back Zach Line rushed for nearly 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns. He will return this season to give SMU a very balanced attack.

Defensively, the Mustangs will have to continue getting to the quarterback as they did in 2010 with 30 total sacks, good for 32nd in the nation. Integral to doing so will be All-C-USA linebacker Ja’Gared Davis who was second in the conference with nine sacks last season.

The biggest thing going for SMU, though, is a fairly weak schedule. While Conference USA has its pitfalls, the Mustangs’ only real challenges within the conference will probably be Tulsa and Central Florida. TCU will be a very formidable non-conference opponent, as will Texas A&M. SMU will face the Aggies in Week 1, and essentially put its BCS hopes on the line immediately. It will be extremely tough to beat a top-notch Texas A&M, but if the Mustangs can pull off the upset, they could be well on their way to a BCS berth.

4. San Diego State Aztecs

If any conference is to produce a “BCS buster” this season, it is most likely going to be the Mountain West Conference. Among the Mountain West’s strongest teams is the San Diego State Aztecs. The Aztecs turned in a strong performance in 2010, going 9-4, and they are poised to improve on that number this season with eight starters returning on an explosive offense.

With that said, the key to San Diego State’s success this season, like SMU, will undoubtedly be its offense. Quarterback Ryan Lindley returns for his senior season after starting each of his three previous collegiate seasons. Lindley made huge strides as a junior, setting career highs in passing yards (3,830), completion percentage (57.7), yards per attempt (9.1) and touchdowns (28). Although Lindley lost his top two receiving weapons to graduation (Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson), his natural progression suggests that he should be in for a career year.

Perhaps even more vital to the Aztecs offense, however, will be running back Ronnie Hillman. As a freshman, Hillman tore up the Mountain West in 2010, rushing for over 1,500 yards and 17 touchdowns. With the departure of many of San Diego State’s top receivers, Hillman is likely to be leaned upon even more heavily in his second season.

While the Aztecs are returning just five defensive starters, they should still have plenty of experience on that side of the ball as well with 10 upperclassmen expected to start. Among them are All-MWC performers in linebacker Miles Burris and cornerback Leon McFadden. Although defense is far from the team’s strength, it will have to be stout this season in order to outlast top offensive squads like Boise State, TCU and Air Force, among others.

An underrated part of San Diego State’s team could aide in that as well, however, as both kicker Abel Perez and punter Brian Stahovich were all-conference performers last season. If they can help the Aztecs win the field position game regularly, San Diego State has a legitimate shot at running the table.

3. TCU Horned Frogs

As the defending Rose Bowl champions, the TCU Horned Frogs have undoubtedly entered the upper echelon of non-BCS schools. Despite returning only 10 starters from one of the most successful teams in school history, the Horned Frogs are poised to make a run at another undefeated season in 2011.

Unlike the other teams on this list, TCU’s success will hedge largely on the defense’s ability to shut down opposing offenses. Although TCU was fourth in offensive points per game last season, a complete retooling on that side of the ball could lead to some early growing pains. Clearly, the biggest loss will be the departure of all-conference quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton may not have been the most physically gifted quarterback, but he was a fantastic leader who ran the TCU offense with great effectiveness.

Sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall will obviously have very big shoes to fill. At this point, it’s relatively unknown what Pachall will be able to bring to the table as he received very scarce playing time as a freshman. It does appear that he has good mobility, however, which is something that Dalton also possessed. With that in mind, it’s possible that TCU will be able to install the same exact offense as it has in recent years.

Luckily, the Horned Frogs feature a running game that will be able to take much of the pressure of Pachall in his first year as a starter. The three-headed monster of Ed Wesley, Matthew Tucker and Waymon James combined for over 2,300 yards and 23 touchdowns last season on a TCU offense that ranked 10th in the nation in rushing yards per game. This should allow Pachall to manage the game while keeping the defense fresh.

A fresh TCU defense is certainly a dangerous one as the Horned Frogs led the nation in a host of defensive categories last season, including points allowed per game (11.4), pass yards allowed (1,515) and total yards allowed per game (215.4). The All-MWC combo of Tank Carder and Tanner Brock at linebacker will anchor the defense and make life miserable for opposing offenses.

The Horned Frogs will have to overcome a tough MWC schedule that features games against Boise State, San Diego State, BYU and Air Force, but they should be able to get through the non-conference schedule intact. The only BCS school on the schedule is Baylor, who while solid, shouldn’t pose a huge problem for TCU. It’s entirely possible that the MWC teams will beat each other down to the point that none will come out unscathed, but if one does, TCU is a safe bet.

2. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

As the toast of Conference USA over the past few seasons, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane are beginning to garner national respect, but they have yet to reach the level of Boise State and TCU. That could very well change this season, however, as the Golden Hurricane are returning 19 starters from a 10-win 2010 team.

With Conference USA being fairly weak outside of a couple select teams, Tulsa will have an excellent chance to steamroll through the conference in 2011. With 10 starters returning from an offense that ranked 13th in rushing, 15th in passing and sixth in scoring last season, Tulsa should feature one of the nation’s most prolific offenses.

Texas transfer G.J. Kinne will his third season at Tulsa with high expectations. Kinne is equally adept as slinging the ball as he is at running it, giving Tulsa’s offense an extra dimension that most teams can’t boast. Kinne racked up over 4,100 total yards last season, as well as 38 total touchdowns as opposed to just 10 picks. Also returning is Kinne’s top receiver, Damaris Johnson. Johnson led the team in both receptions and yards last season, but he is perhaps most valuable for his superior kick returning skills.

The hallmark of Tulsa’s offense is a penchant for spreading the ball around. Five players had 350 or more receiving yards last season, while nine players had at least one receiving touchdown. The same is true in the running game as a host of rushers combined for nearly 3,000 total yards and 32 touchdowns in 2010.

Tulsa will certainly need to become more polished defensively if it is to make the jump to BCS contention this season. The Golden Hurricane ranked 85th in the nation in points allowed last season. This puts unnecessary pressure on the Tulsa offense to outscore opponents. If nothing else, Tulsa should have a cohesive unit with nine defensive starters returning, including seven upperclassmen.

 The Golden Hurricane gave up entirely too many yards through the air last season, ranking second to last in the nation in pass defense. The secondary appeared to improve a bit late last season, however, which is a good omen for the Tulsa defense in 2011.

Tulsa’s biggest obstacle this season will be a brutal non-conference schedule. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State, all of whom could be ranked in the preseason top 10, stand in the way of Tulsa. Because of that, it will be difficult for the Golden Hurricane to finish with less than two losses, but if they can upset two of those three opponents, a BCS Bowl may still be in the cards.

1. Boise State Broncos

It should come as no surprise that the nation’s most celebrated non-BCS team, the Boise State Broncos, are first on this list. Unlike the aforementioned programs, Boise State football has had sustained success against high-level opponents, losing more than one game in a season just once over the past five years. The Broncos’ real coming-out party occurred when they beat Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. Since then, Boise State has taken on and beaten all comers, regardless of conference affiliation.

Boise State is making the jump from the Western Athletic Conference to the Mountain West Conference this season. Although the MWC is still considered a mid-major conference, it is viewed as a significant step up from the MAC. Should the Broncos run the table there would likely be much more consideration given to allowing them to play for the national championship than there was in years past.

Few teams were as balanced between offensive and defensive excellence as the Broncos were last season as they were second in both points for and points allowed. The Boise State offense begins and ends with Heisman Trophy candidate Kellen Moore. The southpaw signal caller has been a model of consistency as the Broncos quarterback, passing for at least 3,500 yards and 35 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. While Moore passed for four fewer touchdowns and three more interceptions in 2010 than he did in 2009, he made huge strides in other areas.

Not only did Moore throw for a career-high 3,845 yards, he also set new career marks in completion percentage (71.3) and yards per attempt (10.04). Despite Moore’s yearly improvements, it will challenging for him to continue his upward trend this season due to the losses of starting receivers Titus Young and Austin Pettis who combined for over 2,100 yards and 19 touchdowns last season. Luckily for the Broncos, however, Moore’s best attribute over the course of his career has been his ability to get everyone involved and spread the ball around, much like Tom Brady is able to do in the NFL.

The Broncos will also have to absorb the loss of running back Jeremy Avery who rushed for 11 scores last season. That issue should be curtailed by the continued advancement of Doug Martin, though, as he ran for 1,260 yards and 12 touchdowns in his own right last year.

On defense, the Broncos are returning four All-WAC selections from last season, each of whom will be seniors in 2011. Not only was Boise State second in points allowed last season, but it was also sixth in rush yards allowed, third in pass yards allowed and fourth in total yards allowed. The Broncos also tied for first in the nation with 48 sacks, making them perhaps the best all-around defensive unit in college football.

With little doubt surrounding the fact that Boise State is the most talented non-BCS school in the country, it will have nobody to blame but itself if it falls short of a BCS bid this season. With Georgia and Tulsa as the only formidable non-conference opponents on the schedule, the Broncos have an excellent chance to finish the regular season undefeated, and if everything else goes their way, a spot in the national championship game is not out of the realm of possibility.