College Football 2011: Measuring the Hot/Cold Seats in the Pac-12

Every year brings the potential for success and failure to every coach in the conference. But how many coaches are sitting on a block of ice? And how many are sitting on a chair primed with gasoline and a fan base with lighters in hand? Here is where I gauge the level of heat on the coaches as they enter the college football 2011 season in the newly minted Pac-12.

12. Chip Kelly

At the moment, easily the safest seat in the entire conference. In only two years on the job he has taken the Ducks to a Rose Bowl and a National Championship Game (obviously winning the conference both times). And has done so in impressive fashion, often beating teams by huge margins with scores usually relegated to the video game world. So barring any major incident, Kelly will be here for quite some time. But the seeds of incident could be starting to sprout. Who knows if anything will come of an NCAA inquiry into the team's (and Kelly's) involvement in the Will Lyles fiasco, or how Cliff Harris got possession of a rental car. And will fans get restless if they have to endure a 9-3 or 8-4 season? Time will tell. At the moment, Chip Kelly is going to be the head coach at Oregon for the foreseeable future. 

11. Kyle Wittingham

Kyle Wittingham has experienced a good deal of winning while coaching the Utes. Many had speculated that the only thing that would pull him out of Utah would be to go to a BCS job where he could have a better chance at making a major bowl game (or NCG). But with Utah accepting an invitation to the Pac-12, it looks like the BCS came to him. Many expect Utah to be an immediate player in the conference, and they very well could be. The South division will be pretty wide open at the start of the year. As long as they don't sink to the bottom they won't be looking at alternatives. And if he achieves immediate success in the conference, expect him to be in Utah until he retires from coaching altogether.

10. Mike Riley

Even though the Beavers had a down season last year, Mike Riley has an incredibly cool seat in the conference. He will forever have a place in the hearts of many Beaver fans for what he has done with the program. He is the reason the fans have high expectations in the first place. And he has accomplished this the old fashioned way by developing a lot of 2- and 3-star talent into all-conference type players. If the fan support weren't enough, the school also gave him a contract extension that runs through the end of the decade. And for a school not swimming in disposable money, they probably can't afford the "buy out" clause. So he will be given the time to turn things around even if OSU has to weather a couple tough years in the meantime.

9. Steve Sarkisian

Ironically Jim Lambright was fired following the 1998 season for finishing 6-6, this year Sark was praised for the same accomplishment. Funny how time changes perspective. But despite that observation, Sark’s seat is very cool for a multitude of reasons. There is a lot of optimism that the program is on the rise. And for good reason: Recruiting has been strong, the team has been more competitive, and he will be given time to fully develop his system. I think the Huskies will continue to improve this year but even if they have some growing pains, Sark's job is safe. The fan base and administration is "all in" enough to give him the time he needs. And if he can continue to make the team better, expect him in Seattle for quite some time. As it looks now, Sark wont be going anywhere unless it is by notice of resignation.

8. Lane Kiffin

Kiffin will have job safety (at least for the immediate future). For starters, an 8 win season is not exactly a failure (in all but USC standards). He is not only a new coach but is from the USC family, so they are likely to give him time to try to get his players and system installed. But most importantly, the administration simply won't want to go on a coaching search while riding out their NCAA sanctions. Most high profile coaches that USC would seek out would not be too keen on walking into a situation with multiple years of scholarship reductions. If Kiffin does get the axe it will not be for another two to three years, when the job will be a little more attractive to potential candidates.

7. Jon Embree

Colorado fans have high demands for their football team, but rarely does anyone give a pink slip to a first year head coach. Even if the Buffs have to endure another losing season he will be back in 2012. After spending several years as the Big 12 punching bag, the fans have thicker skin than pulling the plug right away. The schedule will be tough; they really have ten conference games this year (Cal was a previously scheduled non-conference game that they couldn't change), but a game at Ohio State that once looked impossible now looks like they could steal one from a depleted Buckeyes team. The upcoming season could be a surprising success for Colorado. But either way Embree has some time to develop this team.

6. David Shaw

Perhaps it is surprising to see him this high on the list. But unlike Embree, who is taking over after a losing season, Shaw is taking over a team coming off one of the best seasons in school history. You never want to be the guy that replaces the hero, it rarely ends well. After the Harbaugh years, Stanford fans have become accustomed to winning football games and pushing other teams around. Coaches rarely lose their job after one year, so don't expect Shaw to be unemployed in 2012. But if Stanford regresses over the next couple of years expect a fan base that now has raised expectations to start looking for a new guy. Someone a little more Harbaugh-esque.  

5. Mike Stoops

Mike Stoops has brought some very competitive teams through the field in Tucson and Arizona didn't have a particularly bad year in 2010. But it was a bit Jekyll and Hyde. On one hand, they were in the top 25 early in the year, beat a good Iowa team, finished with a 7-5 record and a trip to the Alamo Bowl. But on the other hand many fans left with a bad taste in their mouth after finishing with a 4-5 conference record followed by a loss in the Alamo Bowl (5-game losing streak to end the year). Losing the Territorial Cup after a pair of blocked PATs was especially painful. And many fans are growing tired of Stoops' notorious temper tantrums on the sidelines. A bad season in 2011 will not likely result in losing his job, but could make for a very warm posterior entering the 2012 season.

4. Jeff Tedford

Cal fans haven't had to endure a long stretch of bad football. Last year's 5-7 finish was their first losing season since 2001. Tedford has been credited with bringing football success back to Strawberry Canyon, but success is a double edged sword. The fans that were so thankful to have a competitive team return to town have begun to demand more than just a decent finish. They have visited the bowl circuit of the conference but have yet to reach the Rose Bowl (or higher) in recent years. Some are speculating how many Holiday, Sun and Fight Hunger Bowls the fans will smile through before they look for a guy who can take them to a conference championship. A winning season will likely bring him back in 2012, but for how long?

3. Dennis Erickson

Possibly a surprising pick for a team that is a dark horse candidate to make the Title Game. The fans in Tempe are used to having a competitive team in the conference, and struggling to get to 6-6 will only fly for so long before they change the guard. In recent years, many have begun to question his coaching skill as well as his ability to control his players. ASU was the most penalized team in the conference by a wide margin. Especially with such a wealth of talent at his disposal this year, anything shy of eight or nine wins will probably spark some serious closed door discussions. Many fans see this as their chance to make a run at greatness, and will never forgive Erickson if he squanders it. So this is a unique situation where a successful season marks him as an ASU legend and a bad one could get him run out of town.

2. Paul Wulff

Now into some serious heat, and many consider this the No. 1 hot seat. I disagree. Wulff has a luxury the next coach won't have: low expectations. The Cougs have had a pretty rough go of it the last several years. Two 2-10 seasons sandwiching a 1-11 season. Often filled with double digit losses. The losses are particularly painful for a program that was used to 10-win seasons at the start of the 2000s. So the tough thing to gauge is what the fan base will consider a success. I think they would be fine with a 4-8 finish (not thrilled with it, but acceptable). And the schedule looks forgiving enough to give them at least that many wins, maybe more. Barring a major step backwards, Wulff should be back in 2012. But if the team doesn't land more than one conference win, expect to see a new face.

1. Rick Neuheisel (Senior Muy Caliente)

The people in Westwood have a lot better things to do in LA than watch depressing football. Where WSU fans will probably be fine with four wins, UCLA fans will demand at least six (probably more). And I don’t know if I see that many wins in the Bruins' future. The only seemingly sure thing is San Jose State, every other game will range from difficult to impossible. They have major question marks for a team that struggled to get to 4-8 last year. With USC in detention, many UCLA fans expected they would be able to step into the LA (and Pac-12) spotlight. Neuheisel made some pretty bold claims upon his arrival, and has yet to deliver on any of them. If fans have to sit through another losing season his seat will not just be hot, it will be set ablaze by rioting fans.