NBA Draft 2011: 20 Bold Predictions About This Year's Draft Class
The NBA draft is one of the hardest events in sports to predict because it is the perfect representation of the domino effect. Every team's action (with the lone exception of the first overall pick) is completely dependent upon the actions of the teams ahead of it.
No one knows exactly how these young men will perform at the next level. There's simply no way to fully grasp how a player's game will translate to the NBA just by running him through cones and around chairs.
With that said, as the draft nears (Thursday, June 23rd), speculation about what will happen becomes a little more educated.
Here are 20 (somewhat) bold predictions about the NBA draft class of 2011.
No. 1 Overall Pick Kyrie Irving Will Never Make an All-Star Team
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Kyrie Irving is all but guaranteed to be drafted first overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers, and I believe he will be a fine player with a long career.
But good luck cracking an All-Star team at the point guard position over the next 10 years.
Just look at the young point guards in the Eastern Conference right now: Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, John Wall and Brandon Jennings are all studs.
Hell, even Jrue Holiday, Darren Collison and Jeff Teague showed All-Star potential during the heavily contested NBA playoffs.
That's eight guys age 26 or younger that are all better than Kyrie Irving as of now.
Good luck, kid.
Minnesota Will Trade the Second Overall Pick
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The Minnesota Timberwolves need veteran help, and they need it now.
Kevin Love is in danger of skipping town as a restricted free agent in 2012, and general manager David Kahn's job is about as safe as a 2:30 a.m. drunk drive to Taco Bell.
Basically, Minnesota must make a drastic improvement in the win column this year or heads will roll.
Luckily for the 'Wolves, the second overall pick is a hot commodity. They would be wise to trade it away in order to get an immediate contribution from a proven veteran.
Brandon Knight Will Be Drafted Ahead of Kemba Walker
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The Utah Jazz are in desperate need of a point guard, and I'd be surprised if they didn't take Kentucky freshman Brandon Knight with the third overall pick.
The Jazz tend to covet bigger guards (they drafted Deron Williams over Chris Paul in '05), and Knight fits the bill. Knight is 6'3", 180 pounds and has a 6'6" wingspan.
He should be exactly what the Jazz are looking for.
But Kemba Walker Will Have the Better Career
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I wrote yesterday about why I believe Kemba Walker will be a better pro than Brandon Knight.
In a nutshell, Walker's strengths (speed, ability to penetrate, ability to finish in the paint) translate beautifully to today's NBA game.
Just look at how 5'10" J.J. Barea absolutely dominated portions of the NBA playoffs. He was unstoppable at times, killing teams off the dribble.
If you're telling me that Walker can't do something similar, then you are absolutely crazy.
Knight will be a good player, but Walker will be the much more impactful one during his career.
Enes Kanter Will Be the First International Player off the Board
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Turkish big man Enes Kanter is an incredible talent who routinely dominated international competitions as a 17- and 18-year-old.
However, he hasn't played meaningful 5-on-5 in over a year due to the NCAA ruling him ineligible to compete for receiving "improper" benefits from his European team.
But I doubt this will affect his draft stock. Kanter has enormous potential, and I would be shocked if he falls out of the top five.
I believe he will go fourth overall to Cleveland and have an immediate impact on the young Cavs team.
Jonas Valanciunas Will Be the Best International Player in This Draft
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International scouts are unanimously high on Valanciunas, the 6'11" center from Lithuania.
Valanciunas isn't the stereotypical "soft" European big man who likes to shoot from the perimeter, throw pretty passes and play terrible defense.
Rather, he's a banger through and through. He loves to set screens and roll aggressively to the hoop. He does all his scoring around the rim and is developing a deadly set of post moves.
He's also an incredible rebounder, using his explosiveness, enormous wingspan and relentless motor to gobble up rebounds on both the offensive and defensive ends.
He was incredibly efficient while playing big minutes in the Euroleague (70.8 percent on field goals, 88.5 percent on free throws).
He has a $3 million buyout clause with his European team, so he will likely stay overseas for a year. But this isn't a bad thing since he can play competitively during the NBA lockout and add some muscle while he's at it.
Although it will take a few years, I expect Valanciunas to be a beast at the center position and ultimately the best international player in this draft.
Jan Vesely Will Be the Most Exciting International Player in Years
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One look at this picture gives you a pretty good idea of what Vesely does. He dunks, dunks and dunks some more.
The high-flying 6'11" small forward out of the Czech Republic is similar to Valanciunas in that he doesn't fit the mold of a stereotypical European player.
He isn't a great shooter, and his overall offensive game needs a lot of work.
But man, can he throw down. He has an excellent motor, runs the floor exceptionally well and finishes alley-oops and put-back dunks with ease.
Type his name into YouTube and you get highlight reel after highlight reel of posterizing dunks.
I sincerely hope that he is drafted sixth overall by Washington, just so we can all be treated to countless John Wall to Jan Vesely alley-oops.
The Kings Select Jimmer Fredette with the Seventh Pick
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Okay, now things are getting a little bold.
Sacramento desperately needs a point guard so it can slide Tyreke Evans over to the shooting guard position. Brandon Knight will be off the board, and I think Toronto takes Kemba Walker with the fifth overall pick.
That leaves the Jimmer, who wowed the Kings in his workout with them and would actually be a better fit than Walker.
The Maloof brothers fell head over heels for Fredette after his June 10th workout in Sacramento, and he would fit beautifully with Evans' slashing style.
Of course, many people will freak out at the idea of Jimmer going this high in the draft. But he has the exact skill set that the Kings need, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them pull the trigger on Fredette at No. 7.
Kawhi Leonard Is the Next Gerald Wallace
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Many people are predicting Leonard to be a bust because he doesn't do one thing particularly well, which is often a dangerous caveat for a lottery pick.
However, I think he will be a very good player.
He is an incredible athlete with a relentless motor and enormous hands. He'll make a living in this league simply by being ridiculously athletic and playing harder than everyone else, which is pretty much why Gerald Wallace has been successful.
He'll never be a great offensive player but will get points off offensive rebounds and fast-break opportunities. He has the potential to be an excellent defender and a great rebounder at the small forward position.
Marcus Morris Will Be Drafted First, but Markieff Will Be the Better Player
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Marcus Morris will be the first twin off the board (likely late in the lottery) because of his incredibly polished offensive game. But I'm not sure how his skill set will translate to the NBA.
He has the dreaded "tweener" syndrome, in that he is too small to be a power forward but not fast or athletic enough to be a small forward. I expect him to struggle to find a position in the league.
On the other hand, Markieff has the perfect set of tools to be a very effective pick-and-pop power forward at the next level. He has decent size, is very strong and possesses a deadly mid-range jumper.
He is also very competitive on the defensive end and was an elite rebounder at the collegiate level. I expect him to contribute immediately and ultimately have a better career than his more highly touted twin brother.
Tristan Thompson Will Be a Bust
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I'm a Texas fan, so this one hurts to say, but I just don't see how Thompson will be a good player at the next level.
He's a slightly undersized power forward that plays like a center because he literally has no mid-range game whatsoever.
His jump shot is atrocious, he's Shaq-like from the free throw line (49 percent in college) and he doesn't play hard on a consistent basis.
He is a solid defender, but I believe he'll regularly get bullied by stronger players on the low block.
I hope he does well because I always root for UT alums, but right now he has "bust" written all over him.
Klay Thompson Will Be the Best Shooting Guard in the Draft
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I really like the top three shooting guards in this year's class (Thompson, Alec Burks, Marshon Brooks) and believe all will be starters in this league for a long time.
But out of the three, I think Thompson has the brightest future.
His jump shot is absolutely gorgeous, and at 6'7" he should have no trouble getting it off at the next level.
He isn't an elite athlete like Burks or Brooks, but he moves fluidly without the ball, utilizing screens to perfection and effortlessly finding seams in the defense.
I won't go so far as to say he's the next Ray Allen, but I believe he fits into that mold very well.
He'll have a long career in the NBA and will be one of the deadliest weapons on a championship contender sometime in the near future.
Bismack Biyombo Becomes an Absolute Beast Defensively
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In addition to having the draft's best name, Bismack Biyombo also has the longest wingspan (7'7") and the most "holy crap, this guy could swat 10 shots a game" potential.
The 6'9" power forward from Congo led the Spanish ACB League (the world's second most competitive league) in blocked shots despite playing limited minutes.
He is incredibly raw offensively but will come in and dominate the defensive end immediately. Look for him to be a Ben Wallace/Serge Ibaka/Joel Anthony type of player, one who won't score a lot of points but will win games with his defense alone.
He is a freak athlete with an even more freakish wingspan to go along with impeccable defensive instincts. He's also a very emotional player, a la Kevin Garnett or Joakim Noah.
Biyombo will likely never be a 20 point per game scorer, but he'll be a star in this league because of his defense and high-energy play.
Chris Singleton Will Be an Elite Perimeter Defender at Next Level
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Chris Singleton is an absolute nightmare for opposing perimeter players, often shutting down top-notch scorers with relative ease.
He'll keep this up in the NBA and become a major weapon for the team that drafts him.
He's 6'9", 230 pounds and can guard multiple positions. His defensive instincts and technique are remarkable for a player coming out of college.
The former Florida State Seminole is a rare Tony Allen-type defender who doesn't need the ball to be effective.
He will probably be drafted in the 15-20 range, but I believe he'll make a bigger first-year impact than most rookies drafted ahead of him.
Kenneth Faried Becomes a Rodman-Esque Rebounder
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The 6'7" Faried is undersized at the power forward position, but he makes up for it with incredible energy, great instincts and elite athleticism.
Faried passed Tim Duncan as college basketball's all-time leading rebounder, and I expect him to accomplish similar feats in the NBA.
He is very raw offensively, but that's not necessarily a bad thing because he can focus all his energy on defense and rebounding.
Every team needs an elite rebounding big man that doesn't need the ball to be successful, and I think Faried will be that man for whichever lucky team he falls too.
Like Singleton, he'll probably be drafted in the late teens to early twenties, but I expect him to make a far bigger impact than most other rookies.
Chandler Parsons Sneaks into the First Round
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While many like to criticize his lack of athleticism, I think Chandler Parsons will be a very good player at the next level.
At 6'9.75" he has excellent size for a small forward and is incredibly versatile.
He has a beautiful shooting stroke, is a solid rebounder (7.8 per game last season) and is a great ball-handler capable of playing the point-forward role.
Like Klay Thompson, he moves very well off the ball and knocks down shots when he gets his space.
I expect to him to be a Hedo Turkoglu-type player with a long career in the NBA.
Dallas, San Antonio and Chicago are all very possible options late in the first round.
Kansas Has the Most First-Round Draft Picks
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Kansas (the Morris twins) and Texas (Tristan Thompson, Jordan Hamilton) are the only schools with two guaranteed first-round picks (unless you count Enes Kanter as a Kentucky Wildcat, which I don't).
Both have a third player that could possibly sneak into the first round (Kansas: Josh Selby, Texas: Cory Joseph).
But despite his immaturity, I believe Selby will go in the first round while Joseph is relegated to the second round.
Schools, and particularly coaches, pride themselves on producing first-round picks, and every year you see the graphic of schools with the most first-round picks in NBA history.
I don't believe Selby will be a very good pro, but his selection in the first round would give Kansas the most first-round picks and a minor victory over its Big 12 rival.
Charles Jenkins Will Be the Biggest Steal on the Perimeter
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Charles Jenkins isn't a household name, but he will be soon.
The combo guard is a dynamic scorer and an absolute physical specimen at the guard position. At 6'3", 220 pounds of pure muscle with a 6'7" wingspan, Jenkins is capable of playing both point and shooting guard at the next level.
He has a gorgeous outside shot and uses his strength to bully smaller guards.
He likely won't be selected until late in the first round, but he will have a very successful career. I expect him to be a prolific scorer off the bench a la Ben Gordon/O.J. Mayo/James Harden.
Jenkins is a matchup nightmare and the perfect guard to have waiting on the bench. He would be a great fit in Chicago (who hold the 28th and 30th picks), as he could spell Derrick Rose or play alongside him in an incredibly fast and athletic backcourt.
I don't know if Jenkins will ever be a starter in this league, but I expect him to contend for Sixth Man of the Year awards on a regular basis.
Jeremy Tyler Will Be the Biggest Steal on the Interior
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Jeremy Tyler was once touted as a future top-10 pick before he made the much-maligned decision to skip his senior year of high school and play professionally in Israel.
Israel proved to be disastrous for Tyler, and he eventually quit the team to play in Japan.
He may have lost his status as a lottery pick, but he certainly hasn't lost his size or talent. At 6'11", 260 pounds with a 7'5" wingspan, Tyler is one of the more physically impressive prospects in this year's class.
To go along with his size, he also has incredible defensive potential. He put on a clinic at the Chicago pre-draft combine, where he basically made all the other prospects look bad because they couldn't score over him.
I believe he will be an elite defensive center in the NBA, similar to Tyson Chandler. Every team that intends to compete for a title needs a top-notch interior defender, and Tyler can be that player.
Boston at 25 or San Antonio at 29 would both be wise to select him, as he could blossom into one of the best defensive big men in the game under the tutelage of Kevin Garnett or Tim Duncan.
Derrick Williams Will Be the Rookie of the Year
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Derrick Williams is a rare offensive talent with a unique skill set. At 6'9", 248 pounds, he is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.
He can overpower small forwards and has a very polished repertoire of low-post and mid-range moves once he establishes position.
He also has an explosive first step, which will allow him to blow by power forwards at the next level.
Williams is a fantastic outside shooter (check out this Sport Science video) that can keep his defender from playing off him and stretch the defense.
An unheralded prospect coming out of high school, Williams had a very impressive freshman season, followed by an even better sophomore campaign. These drastic improvements from year to year are a testament to his tremendous work ethic.
He isn't an elite rebounder or defender but makes up for it with his stellar offensive ability. I see him being a Carmelo Anthony-type scorer (although not quite as good) that will be able to take advantage of any defense employed against him.
It will be interesting to see which team selects him, as Minnesota will look to trade the second overall pick. But wherever he lands, Williams will be a 20 point per game scorer for years to come.
For more 2011 NBA draft coverage, stay tuned to Bleacher Report for updated NBA mock drafts, NBA draft rumors, NBA draft results and draft grades.
