2011-2012 NCAA College Football Preview: Big Ten Edition

This is the first installment in my series of conference previews for the upcoming 2011-2012 college football season.  Many things are subject to change, but early predictions are fun to read with the long summer lull in sports.

Which teams are on the rise?  The decline?  Who will be each team's impact player? 

What's Changed?

With Ohio State seemingly in a tailspin, the newly configured Big Ten is up for grabs.  Nebraska's admission to the conference brings another perennial powerhouse into the mix.  The conference has been divided into two awkwardly named divisions: the "Legends" and the "Leaders."  While these division names make very little sense, the Big Ten schedule is just as much of a mystery.  How will things shake out?  Well, you just sit back and read, I'll do all the thinking.

Sixth, Legends: Minnesota 3-9 (0-8)

The Skinny

Oh, those sneaky Gophers.  They managed to give several good teams scares last season, but not much more than that in most cases.  New coach Jerry Kill should bring some excitement to Minnesota fans with his offensive scheme.  QB MarQueis Gray will take over the reigns and should have a lot of freedom to make plays.  The defense is a wreck and looks to stay that way with the Gophers replacing six of the back seven.  CB Troy Stoudemire (former WR) adds some playmaking potential to an otherwise lackluster defense.

Impact Player

The relative strength of the Gophers is their stable of RBs, led by Duane Bennett and DeLeon Eskridge.  There should be a lot of fireworks on the ground for Minny this year with those two explosive guys in the backfield.  But if there is no threat in the passing game, defenses will be able to key in and stuff the run.

Oh, Really?

Minnesota suffered a nine-game losing streak during the middle of the season last year.  Not surprisingly, they were the only Big Ten team to accomplish such a feat.

Fifth, Legends: Northwestern 8-4 (4-4)

The Skinny

The fact that I have Northwestern picked fifth in the Legends division shows the depth that this side of the conference has.  They are a very good team and will no longer be able to sneak up on teams.  QB Dan Persa has a lot of experience returning in his offense, including four starters on the O-Line.  Look for RB Mike Trumpy to have a breakout season.  CB Jordan Mabin has NFL talent and is the best player in the back seven for the Wildcats.  DE Vince Browne came out of nowhere to have a fantastic season last year, posting seven sacks. 

Impact Player

Northwestern can turn a good season into a great season if Dan Persa can rebound 100 percent from his torn Achilles he suffered last season.  He is a legitimate threat to have an all-conference season and (gulp) a shot at a dark horse Heisman campaign.  Expect to hear Persa's name a lot this season.

Oh, Really?

Evanston, IL is a lovely suburb of Chicago that currently houses one of the best QB's in the Big Ten.

Fourth, Legends: Michigan State 8-4 (4-4)

The Skinny

 While the general thinking is that Michigan State will have another strong season, I see some tougher times ahead for Sparty.  They travel to NEB, OSU and Iowa this year—a stark contrast to their relatively easy conference schedule last season.  They seem to have been exposed by Alabama in their Capital One Bowl blowout loss.  Kirk Cousins played pretty well last season, but looked rather flustered at times against stiffer competition.  MSU likely boasts the best stable of RBs in the conference, and the WRs aren't too shabby, either.  While the team may be better, the team's record may not reflect that.

Impact Player

 A very under-the-radar player, Keshawn Martin is a special talent.  His WR running mate BJ Cunningham may attract more attention from opposing defenses, leading to single coverages for Martin.  He is lightning quick and should be a force once again in the return game as well as the passing attack.

Oh, Really?

The Spartans were outscored 86-13 by Iowa and Alabama last season.  They won the other 11 games they played. 

Third, Legends: Michigan 9-3 (5-3)

The Skinny

 Michigan's conference schedule sets up semi-favorably, avoiding Wisconsin (a team Michigan has struggled against recently).  The key matchup is against Notre Dame at home.  They have handled the Irish well recently, one of the few teams Michigan can say that for.  If the defense can gel under a more traditional scheme (out with the 3-3-5), Michigan has the defensive talent to become a respectable unit.  All in all, the Wolverines have the talent to compete with Nebraska and Iowa for the "Legends" division title, but will likely have to wait another year due to the new scheme(s).

Impact Player

 Quite possibly the biggest impact player in the country, Denard Robinson is back and ready to make another Heisman campaign.  The biggest question facing him this season is how to handle the transition to the new offense.  Out with the spread option, in with the pro-style attack.  If he continues to have the freedom to roll out and make plays, expect to see Shoelace at the Heisman ceremony in New York.

Oh, Really?

The matchup against Notre Dame will mark the first ever night game in the Big House.  Ugly throwback jerseys will be used to celebrate the occasion.

Second, Legends: Iowa 10-2 (6-2)

The Skinny

Ricky Stanzi was a rock in the Iowa offense over the last few years, but he is gone to the NFL.  James Vandenberg is the most likely candidate to replace him, but it won't be as rough of a transition as some might assume.  The talent around Vandenberg is outstanding, led by WR Marvin McNutt and RB Marcus Coker.  The defense should be solid, as usual, led by CBs Shaun Prater and Micah Hyde, who might be the best tandem in the conference.

Impact Player

 WR Marvin McNutt has all the tools to be a star in college football.  He could have bolted to the NFL, but decided to stay in school.  While Iowa's mantra is to run the ball for tough yardage, it is always nice to have a player as skilled as McNutt.  Expect to see him on many postseason award lists, including All-Conference and Best Name.

Oh, Really?

Last year was the first season since 2006-2007 that someone not named Derrell Johnson-Koulianos led the team in receiving.

First, Legends: Nebraska 11-1 (7-1)

The Skinny

 Nebraska has what most people are considering the best defense in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country.  All facets of the D are impeccable, with NFL prospects everywhere.  CB Alfonzo Dennard makes plays and is a legitimate shutdown corner.  The defensive line is the strength of the group, led by potential all-conference tackles Jared Crick and Baker Steinkuhler.  If Taylor Martinez can keep the offense on track and stay healthy, expect to see Nebraska in the Big Ten title game and possibly a BCS bowl game.

Impact Player

There are many options to choose from with the talent Nebraska boasts on defense, but it all starts up front with Jared Crick.  The Huskers were 11th in scoring defense last season, and that should carry over to this year.  Crick's ability to clog up the middle of the line and free up other linemen allows Nebraska to drop more players into coverage, thus creating less passing lanes and forcing turnovers.

Oh, Really?

Nebraska fans are renowned for their tendency to travel to opposing teams' stadiums.  They will be put to the test with dedicated fans in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, etc.

Sixth, Leaders: Purdue 4-8 (1-7)

The Skinny

 Purdue returns nine defensive starters.  The bad news, however, is that the D was not very stout last season.  DT Kawann Short has the ability to dominate an O-Line and should free up some blitzers.  The entire secondary returns, led by CBs Josh Johnson and Ricardo Allen.  Junior Ralph Bolden is back from injury and should see the bulk of the carries in the offense.  The QB battle is between Rob Henry and former Miami transfer Robert Marve, neither of whom have been overly impressive.

Impact Player

 67 yards.  Carson Wiggs kicked a FG of 67 yards in the spring game.  I'll say that again: 67 yards.  Range like that is usually reserved for military weapons.  That means the Boilermakers have to get the ball to the 50 yard-line to be in Wiggs' range.  That's the definition of an impact player. 

Oh, Really?

Ranked by some as a 5-star QB coming out of high school, Robert Marve has been relegated to backup at a bottom-tier Big Ten school. 

Fifth, Leaders: Indiana 5-7 (1-7)

The Skinny

 New coach Kevin Wilson has brought some much needed excitement to Bloomington.  This is his first season as a head coach, but he has orchestrated the recent dominant offenses at Oklahoma.  His main task is to find a new QB, with Ben Chappell departing.  Sophomores Dusty Kiel and Edward Wright-Baker will compete with true frosh Tre Roberson for the starting gig.  The defense was awful last season, and many spots will have to be filled due to graduation.  Senior LBs Jeff Thomas and Leon Beckum should be the standout players on an otherwise pedestrian defensive unit.  Look for the Hoosiers to possibly pull some upsets this year.  You know what they say: Crazy things happen in Bloomington.

Impact Player

 With Tandon Doss moving on to the NFL, WR Damarlo Belcher will have some big shoes to fill as the primary offensive weapon.  He may not have the full skill-set Doss had, but he certainly has all-conference potential.  Whoever ends up as the starting QB will have a big, physical WR weapon on the outside to throw to.

Oh, Really?

Basketball season starts in November.

Fourth, Leaders: Penn State 5-7 (2-6)

The Skinny

The focal point of the offense will be WR Derek Moye.  He has NFL ability and is one of the few players on this offense that can say that.  QB should be another rocky season with a continuous battle between Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin.  Look for RB Silas Redd to have a fantastic season carrying the load for this offense.  The defense is a bit of a question mark, with the only proven unit being the secondary.  Safeties Nick Sukay and Drew Astorino are all-conference talents, but may have a tough go of it if the D-Line can't create any pressure.  Watch out for sophomore LB Khairi Fortt to have a breakout season.

Impact Player

 I easily could have gone with Moye as the impact player, but safety Drew Astorino will have a bigger say in the team's finish.  He has the task of organizing the defense as well as making big plays in the passing game.  As I said before, the pass rush was very weak last season, making Astorino's job even tougher.  Expect to see him making a ton of plays this season. 

Oh, Really?

Joe Paterno will turn 85 at the end of this season.  I think 46 years is long enough, and JoePa will call it quits after this season.

Third, Leaders: Illinois 8-4 (4-4)

The Skinny

Illinois' season is going to be pretty tough to predict, but it really all rests in the capable hands of QB Nathan Scheelhaase.  He is a defensive coordinator's (and SpellChecker's) worst nightmare.  He is lightning quick and makes some pinpoint passes.  RB Jason Ford will be a nice complement to him in the backfield, as well as playmaking wideout AJ Jenkins.  The defense is anchored by sophomore DT Akeem Spence.  He was a freshman All-American last season and should bring that momentum over into 2011.  Losing a ton of talent to the NFL, the defense may struggle at times this season, but overall should turn out a pretty respectable season. 

Impact Player

 With another year under OC Paul Petrino and QB Scheelhaase, expect big things from WR AJ Jenkins.  There aren't a ton of other options at wideout, so Jenkins may see more passes purely by default.  His ability to stretch the defense and make big time plays is something Illinois has sorely missed since Arrelious Benn a few years ago.

Oh, Really?

Coach Ron Zook has only had his Illini ranked once to end a season, and that likely won't happen this season either.  Expect to see his seat become really hot if they can't live up to expectations this season.

Second, Leaders: Ohio State 10-2 (6-2)

The Skinny

 Well that got ugly very quickly, didn't it?  Who knew a few free tatoos could destroy a school's reputation so quickly?  There now exists a gaping hole at QB in Columbus, leaving senior Joe Bauserman and freshman Braxton Miller to duke it out for the starting gig.  The Buckeyes have a pretty easy schedule over the first five games (when several stars are suspended).  The remaining talent on defense should be able to get through unscathed.  Junior Ohrian Johnson appears primed for a all-conference caliber season at free safety. 

Impact Player

 RB Dan "Boom" Herron was a legitimate candidate for Big Ten POY and possible All-American honors before he received his five-game suspension.  He is a complete back and will likely be the focus of the Buckeye offense with Terrelle Pryor's absence.

Oh, Really?

Interim coach Luke Fickell made a school record 50 consecutive starts at nose tackle in the 1990's.  No word on what benefits he received as a result.

First, Leaders: Wisconsin 12-0 (8-0)

The Skinny

 Wisconsin lost a lot to the draft last season, but boy, do they have the firepower to replace them.  Montee Ball and James White look like the best two-deep RB tandem in the league, but not by much.  Transfer QB Russell Wilson should be the starter if he decides to go to Wisconsin, as is expected.  Should Wilson go elsewhere, Jon Budmayr should assume the starting role.  Experience is abundant on the defense, led by seniors DT Patrick Butrym and DE Louis Nzegwu.  Look for them to play pretty well on defense, but nothing too flashy—typical Badger fashion.

Impact Player

 WR Nick Toon will go a long way in determining the Badgers' fate this season.  No, not Rugrats or CatDog, but the football player Nick Toon.  He provides a serious passing threat for Wilson (or Budmayr) to throw to.  Russell Wilson has the legs to make some fantastic plays, but the big, experienced Toon will allow for more consistent production.

Oh, Really?

Wisconsin has one of the best crowd traditions in all of sports, as students "Jump Around" at the end of the third quarter to the song by House of Pain.  80,000-plus fans jumping in unison is what sports is all about.

Big Ten Championship: Nebraska V. Wisconsin

Big Ten Title Game

I have Nebraska losing at Wisconsin during the regular season, but given a second chance, expect the Huskers to come back with a vengeance.  Nobody wins in Madison, so the neutral site title game should be a welcome location for the Huskers.  In the end, I see Montee Ball and James White wearing down the Huskers defense and continuing their undefeated run to a BCS Bowl.  Wisconsin has all the guns needed to be a National Title contender; with a lucky bounce here and there, watch out for the badgers come January.

Bowl Eligible Teams

Wisconsin, Ohio State, Illinois, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State and Northwestern

Next Time: Big XII

Can Texas revisit their past success?

Can Oklahoma win the National Championship?

Why are there 10 teams in the Big 12? 

These burning questions (and more) answered in the next edition of 2011-2012 NCAA College Football Preview