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My B/R Top 25 (Oct. 27)

Scott PusichOct 26, 2008

1. Texas (previous: 1) 8-0; beat No. 10 Oklahoma State 28-24

Try as they might, Texas couldn’t throw away the game. Seriously, though, the season is a marathon, not a sprint, and as long as the ‘Horns stay ahead of the competition, they’ll end up in the title game. The game next week @ No. 9 Texas Tech should be quite a duel between Colt McCoy and Graham Harrell and will be the toughest test until the Big 12 championship game.

2. Alabama (previous: 2) 8-0; beat Tennessee 29-9

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The Crimson Tide handled the “Third Saturday in October” without incident. Next up: Arkansas State. Remember Louisiana-Monroe? Hopefully the Tide do and are not looking forward to the game @ No. 17 LSU on Nov. 8.

3. Penn State (previous: 3) 9-0; beat No. 8 Ohio State 13-6

No respect, I tell ya! The Rodney Dangerfield of college football might run the table and not make the title game. It’s happened to him—uh, them—before. The key for the Nittany Lions is to stay focused on their own games—the season finale vs. Michigan State on Nov. 22 is when they will make their final impression on the voters (and computers).

Then, it’s up to (a) an upset in either or both the Big 12 and SEC championship games, or (b) lobbying, lobbying, lobbying—preferably on ESPN College Football Final. Of course, a playoff would be the most equitable solution, but we can’t be idealistic, can we?

4. Utah (previous: 4) 8-0; BYE

I believe that on a neutral field, Utah could handle any of the teams below them in the rankings—that’s why I have them here. They didn’t play, so they don’t move up or down, regardless of what happens around them. Next week @ New Mexico is the appetizer for the main course vs. No. 13 TCU on Nov. 6 (Thursday night).

5. Oklahoma (previous: 5) 7-1; beat Kansas State 58-35

Answer this: If Texas and Alabama lose the Big 12 and SEC championship games, respectively, does Oklahoma get to the BCS title game?

Not likely. It’s much more probable that Florida, Georgia (whomever makes the SEC title game), or USC (should they run the table) face Penn State.

That’s another reason I have Utah at No. 4. Should both the Utes and the Nittany Lions run the table, and Texas and Alabama lose, I believe (barring an eight-team playoff, which would and should include Oklahoma) the BCS title game should match Penn State with Utah.

6. USC (previous: 6) 5-1; beat Arizona 17-10

Arizona is a tougher opponent than most would think (stop laughing, everybody east of the Rockies). The Trojans weren’t at their best, and the Wildcats were pumped to pull the upset, but the ineptitude of the Arizona offense was their downfall. The Men of Troy escaped from the desert with their title hopes intact—albeit under threat by the performance of those teams immediately behind them.

7. Florida (previous: 7) 6-1; beat Kentucky 63-5

Oh, you crazy Gators. You could be in the driver’s seat right now. Why did you lose to Ole Miss? Were the Rebels carrying small pieces of Kryptonite—how else to explain Superman’s mortality? Nope, the Gators were just outplayed on the day.

They still have a shot: Beat No. 8 Georgia at the Cocktail Party this week, make it to the SEC title game, win that game (most likely vs. No. 2 Alabama), and hope the “cowchips” from Austin fall where they may. Oh, and make an LSU-like leapfrog jump over Oklahoma in the BCS rankings.

8. Georgia (previous: 9) 7-1; beat No. 12 LSU 52-38

The ‘Dawgs have the same route to the BCS title game as No. 7 Florida. Win the game that’s going to break out sometime during the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,” knock off Alabama in the SEC title game, and hope two out of the following three lose a game: Texas, Penn State, and/or USC. Not a lock, but given last year, what IS a lock?

9. Texas Tech (previous: T-10) 8-0; beat Kansas 63-21

I didn’t have Kansas ranked, so by my measure Texas Tech hasn’t played a ranked team. The pummeling was impressive, though. The Red Raiders have four games remaining. The key one is the season finale vs. Baylor. Ha! Just kidding!

Seriously though, folks, if Tech wins the next three games—vs. No. 1 Texas this week; vs. No. 10 Oklahoma State on Nov. 8; and @ No. 5 Oklahoma on Nov. 22—then they will replace Texas in the Big 12/BCS driver’s seat. The gauntlet begins this week. Texas is not Kansas...

10. Oklahoma State (previous: T-10) 7-1; lost to No. 1 Texas 24-28

Oh, how close they came...even the loss is good for the Cowboys, given the slim margin of victory, the fight the ‘Pokes gave the ‘Horns throughout, and the potential Achilles' heel in the Longhorns’ game that the Fighting T. Boones exposed—savvy viewers will remember they did the same to Missouri (and came away with the win).

The schedule sets up nicely with a game this week vs. Iowa State before the Nov. 8 game @ No. 9 Texas Tech, and a game @ Colorado and a bye before the season finale Nov. 29 vs. No. 5 Oklahoma.

11. Ohio State (previous: 8) 7-2; lost to No. 3 Penn State 6-13

The highest-ranked team with two losses. Now known as THE (other) OSU, since the Cowboys are above them. The Bucks can claim a moral victory, fighting to the end against No. 3 Penn State in the Horseshoe, but the loss all but ends their hopes of returning to the BCS title game.

The remaining schedule is as follows: @ Northwestern, @ Illinois, vs. Michigan. If the Buckeyes win out, they have a reasonable shot at the Rose Bowl. However, they have to rely upon Penn State making it to the BCS title game to do so.

12. Boise State (previous: 13) 7-0; beat San Jose St. 33-16

There is still a chance that the Broncos make it to a BCS bowl. They have to hope that No. 13 TCU upsets No. 4 Utah on Nov. 6, but not by too wide a margin, and make sure that they accumulate as many "style points" as possible, however distasteful that may seem.

The polls are a cross between a beauty pageant and a political caucus, which is why I hold out hope for a playoff someday, so that questions of whether "mid-majors" truly belong can be resolved. Of the five games remaining on the Broncos' schedule, Nov. 22 @ Nevada and Nov. 28 vs. Fresno State are the most challenging.

13. TCU (previous: 15) 8-1; beat Wyoming 54-7

As I’ve mentioned previously, the loss to Oklahoma makes it highly unlikely—though not impossible—for the “Horny Toads” to make it to a BCS bowl game. TCU must both win out (beating Utah) and hope for other games to go their way—specifically, that No. 12 Boise State and No. 14 Ball State lose.

14. Ball State (previous: 14) 8-0; beat E. Michigan 38-16

No more Saturday games for the Cardinals (see my previous article). Their schedule just does not lend itself to “big wins,” and I don’t see any scenario that will boost them any higher than where I have them now, at No. 14...just outside the “magic zone.” Have I mentioned that they’re not even in first place in their division in the MAC?

15. Minnesota (previous: 16) 7-1; beat Purdue 17-6

GO-GO-GOPHERS! Minnesota’s mascot reminds me of the “Old School” Joe Bruin UCLA mascot from the 80s *cough* when I was an undergrad *cough*, and hey, there’s nothing more inspiring than a worst-to-first (or in this case, probably third) turnaround, right? (See Tampa Bay Rays.) The Gophers were 1-11 last year—coach Tim Brewster is making a case for Coach of the Year honors.

16. Missouri (previous: 18) 6-2; beat Colorado 58-0

I feel sorry for teams that have to play teams the week after those teams play Texas. Does that make any sense? My condolences to the Buffaloes.

As for Mizzou, they’re now the inside favorites (though tied with Nebraska and Kansas in conference at 2-2) for the Big 12 North, and thus the Big 12 championship game.

17. LSU (previous: 12) 5-2; lost to No. 9 Georgia 38-52

The Bayou Bengals gave it their all but came up short by two touchdowns. And since their two losses are in regulation, the defending champs will not be defending their title. LSU’s hopes for a BCS bowl hinge on running the table, including vs. No. 2 Alabama on Nov. 8 and the SEC title game.

Otherwise, it’s a run-of-the-mill New Year’s Day game, and Les Miles will probably start getting phone calls from (or making phone calls to?) Ann Arbor again.

18. BYU (previous: 19) 7-1; beat UNLV 42-35

The loss to TCU really let the air out of the Cougars’ tires. They struggled to overcome an otherwise mediocre UNLV Running Rebel team that had no business being that close to winning. BYU can still play spoiler, though, by ruining Utah’s chances at a BCS berth...if TCU doesn’t beat them to it...heh...

19. Michigan State (previous: 23) 7-2; beat Michigan 35-21

Never pass up a chance to kick a rival when they’re down. The student body and the alumni will thank you for their year of bragging rights, and your in-state recruits are impressed. Sparty did the business in the Big House, and Javon Ringer “takes a lickin’ and keeps on tickin’...” (bonus points to the first person to answer which ad that slogan comes from).

As I’ve mentioned previously, there’s a very good chance the Spartans will finish 9-3, and that’s assuming a loss in the season finale Nov. 22 @ No. 3 Penn State. A plush berth in a high-paying bowl game is within sight.

20. North Carolina (previous: NR) 6-2; beat No. 20 Boston College 45-24

What in the name of Dean Smith is up with the ACC this year? Boston College and Georgia Tech pop into the Top 25 and pop right back out again. Overall the Tar Heels are looking the class of the conference—at least for this week!

Clutch wins over erstwhile powerhouses Miami and Notre Dame, and blowouts over Rutgers, Connecticut, and Boston College indicate the quality of Butch Davis’ team.

The Tar Heels cannot afford to trip up again, including this week vs. Georgia Tech, if they want to make the ACC title game...and they’ll also need No. 25 Virginia to trip up.

21. South Florida (previous: 17) 6-2; lost to Louisville 20-24

The Bulls start well and finish weakly—this happened last season as well. I really don’t like them in the Big East, if for no other reason than geographical principle. Regardless of that, dropping two conference games has put them virtually out of the running for the Big East title, and they’re lucky to still be in the Top 25. This week is another road test, @ Cincinnati.

22. Tulsa (previous: 25) 8-0; beat Central Florida 49-19

“I don’t like Sun-days...I don’t like Sunnnn-days...” (see my previous article, “Eight Days a Week?!?”) Thanks, Golden Hurricane. I waited for your crummy game to end before doing my Top 25. Are you happy? You get to move up three spots. Next week you have a game @ Arkansas (3-5).

And consider this, Tulsa: If you played Arkansas’ schedule, you’d be 3-5 too. Or worse...

23. Florida State (previous: NR) 6-1; beat Virginia Tech 30-20

Florida State is overrated in the major polls and the BCS rankings, the same way Kansas was. Trust me on this—I’ve been a student at both schools, and I’d like to think I know them pretty well. Putting the 'Noles in the Top 25 is doing them a favor—I could just as easily have put Maryland in this spot.

Why do I come to this conclusion? It’s simple: The one game against a ranked opponent (Wake Forest) was a loss. As with Kansas, I expect Florida State to continue to have problems against quality opponents. Of their remaining opponents, only No. 7 Florida is currently ranked, but Atlantic Division rivals Boston College and Maryland could easily be ranked by the time they face the Seminoles.

24. Oregon (previous: NR) 6-2; beat Arizona St. 54-20

Well, look who’s back! The Ducks are still on course for a decent season, and this week’s game @ California will likely decide second place in the Pac-10—which this year holds a status similar (if not inferior) to that of second place in the Mountain West Conference. Really.

25. Virginia (previous: NR) 5-3; beat Georgia Tech 24-17

The highest-ranked (and only) team with three losses. Edges out Maryland, West Virginia, and Connecticut to nab the last spot on the bus. The win over Georgia Tech was workmanlike, which reflects the Cavaliers’ season in general.

Losses to USC, Connecticut, and Duke are balanced by wins over Maryland, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech. The Wahoos also lead the Coastal division of the ACC and are still in the running for the ACC title game (and thus a BCS bowl), but face upcoming tests: this week vs. Miami, and the season finale Nov. 29 @ Virginia Tech.

Dropped out: No. 20 Boston College (5-2), No. 21 Pittsburgh (5-2), No. 22 Georgia Tech (6-2), No. 24 Northwestern (6-2)

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