BCS Bowl Projections: Power Ranking the Teams Most Likely to Land in Each Game

Now that the schedule is out of the upcoming season's BCS bowls and we've made our bold projections for each BCS bowl, it's time to power rank each team in regards to each of the BCS bowls.

Which teams are locks? Which teams are on the bubble? Which teams don't have a shot?

What could be more fun that prognosticating about football bowls that are more than six months away?

Rose Bowl, Jan. 2

The Rose Bowl generally has the champions from the Big Ten and Pac-10/12 face off against one another. It's very early, but it's not likely either team will field a representative in the BCS championship game, so we'll stick with the Big Ten versus Pac-12 matchup for our power rankings.

First, from the Big Ten.

The conference outlook was thrown into disarray last December when the Ohio State “Tattoogate” scandal broke. Fast forward six months and things are even murkier than before. Suffice it to say that we've taken Ohio State out of the running.

Sure, the Buckeyes could still be a decent team in 2011, as they have more than enough depth to still win the big games. But it's highly likely that even if they manage to sport the best record in the division, they won't be allowed to play in the Big Ten Championship Game—or any bowl game for that matter—as part of their sure-to-be-harsh sanctions.

That really leaves Wisconsin or Penn State to come out of the Leaders Division, as Illinois, Purdue and Indiana will put up little more than token resistance.

The Legends Division is a little tougher to predict this season, not only because it includes three or four legit contenders, but because it also has the biggest unknown in the conference this season: Nebraska.

Based on preseason polls, Michigan State seems to be the favorite in the Legends. But MSU has always (not just last season) had problems with Iowa and Northwestern. Michigan could go either way this year, with a new head coach, and Minnesota will still be Minnesota.

So, from the Big Ten, we're looking at somewhat of a logjam at the top.

1. Michigan State

2. Wisconsin

3. Nebraska

4. Penn State

It will basically all come down to the Big Ten Championship Game matchup. If MSU faces Wisconsin or Penn State, expect MSU to be favored. If it's Nebraska against Penn State, bet on the Huskers. If it's Nebraska and Wisconsin... Six to five and pick 'em.

Moving on to the Pac-12, there are a lot of people still stuck on Oregon.

Sure, they had one heckuva 2011, and they're returning a lot of great talent. But it's difficult enough to repeat as conference champions, much less follow up last season's performance with another sprint through the new Pac-12.

Arizona State is returning everybody from the 2010 offense and more than a handful of starters on defense, too. While Arizona State was 6-6 last season, that record is very misleading. Four of those losses were by razor-thin margins, two of them by one point a piece. Sprinkle in some experience topped off with another year of maturity, and you have a winning recipe.

Oregon will still be a tough opponent in 2011, but the dynamic of the conference will be completely different with challenges coming from places you least expect. Oregon will be the early favorite in the North Division, while ASU will is our pick to win the South.

As a whole, the conference will be weaker than in past years, as Stanford will suffer through a marked drop off. Sure, Andrew Luck is back, but he's about it. He's one of only a handful of returning starters from last year's Orange Bowl championship team.

Believe it or not, newcomer Utah is going to have one of the best chances (other than Arizona State) to come out of the South Division, along with possibly UCLA. In the North, there's not a whole lot convincing us that anyone will be able to knock off Oregon this season.

1. Arizona State

2. Oregon

3. UCLA

4. Utah

Sugar Bowl, Jan. 3

We've taken the projected winner of the SEC for 2011, Alabama, and plugged them into the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 3, 2012. But if there's one conference that's notoriously difficult to predict, it has to be the SEC.

One thing seems certain, however. The SEC-West certainly has a leg up on the East, and that's not likely to change for 2011.

Alabama and LSU are leading the early polls in the SEC, and come September, they will both be top five teams. LSU probably has the tougher path to the BCS, and fellow top five team Oregon looms on their schedule. Plus, the 2011 Alabama-LSU contest is in Tuscaloosa. Slight of an advantage as home field is, it's still an advantage. In games like this year's installment is sure to be, every little bit helps.

Arkansas also can't be counted out of the running in the West. While a few people in the SEC might dismiss their chances, one must keep in mind that they're sitting almost exactly where Auburn was sitting at this time last year.

If we shift over to the East, there's not much this season that appears to challenge the West at first glance. While the East will again be a battle down to the last week of the season, the major difference will be that the East as a whole will take a step forward.

Last season, South Carolina made the SEC Championship Game with three SEC losses. Three in-conference losses won't cut it this year. It's likely that the East rep in Atlanta will need two, or quite possibly only one conference loss to earn the divisional title in 2011.

The candidate most likely to emerge with the fewest losses in 2011 is Georgia. With a combination of returning talent—especially in young Aaron Murray—and lingering angst over last season's start, the Bulldogs will definitely be on a mission this year.

1. Alabama

2. LSU

3. Arkansas

4. Georgia

To meet the SEC champ, we've projected an automatic qualifying berth for Notre Dame (meaning they will finish in the BCS's final top eight). While Notre Dame would technically be an automatic qualifier, anyone else appearing in the 2012 Sugar Bowl would be an at-large team.

Besides Notre Dame with their not-tough-but-not-weak schedule, it's possible we could see a second Pac-12, ACC or Big 12 team gobble up the spot.

The Pac-12 could send their conference runner-up to New Orleans for the “early” game in the Big Easy. In this case, we project that to be Oregon. The Big 12 is a little harder to gauge this season than in past years, and we no longer have the benefit of a Big 12 Championship Game.

Just going by early season predictions, we can project that Oklahoma State is the likely runner-up in the Big 12 this season. A reminder for all the Big 12 fans out there: It's not just head-to-head anymore. Final conference record is king in the conferences without the CCG. A likely second representative from the ACC would clearly be the loser of the ACC title game between Florida State and Virginia Tech.

1. Notre Dame

2. Oklahoma State

3. Virginia Tech

4. Oregon

Orange Bowl, Jan. 4

The automatic tie-in for this season's Orange Bowl is with the ACC. We've projected that the Seminoles from Florida State will win the ACC and earn their conference's berth in the Orange Bowl, so they're at the top of our power rankings for the 2012 Orange Bowl.

Probably the only other team in the ACC that could really challenge the Seminoles this season (provided FSU lives up to all of the preseason hype) is Virginia Tech. The Hokies beat out the Seminoles last season for the ACC title, but this year the job of replacing Tyrod Taylor could be just a little too much to earn a repeat trip to the BCS. Still, Va Tech is the second team to make a second appearance for a BCS bowl in our power rankings, after Oregon was listed for both the Rose and Sugar Bowls.

It's also worth mentioning that Maryland could be a dark-horse program in the ACC this season. Their returning sophomore quarterback, Danny O'Brien, is the real deal, and could emerge as a real superstar this season in the ACC.

1. Florida State

2. Virginia Tech

3. Maryland

4. NC State

Returning to their traditional role in the Orange Bowl this season in the Big East. Technically an at-large bid, the Big East is the only BCS AQ conference not to have a direct tie-in with a particular BCS bowl. Nevertheless, they are guaranteed as BCS bowl (unless an extremely unlikely set of circumstances occur).

While Connecticut was able to hang on last season, it's doubtful a repeat performance is in store for the Huskies. While losing your coach is bad enough, losing your entire offensive backfield, including your starting quarterback, will just be too much for the Huskies to handle.

On the other end of the spectrum, West Virginia seems to have most of the pieces they need falling into place. If they can get past a few off-the-field distractions going on right now in Morgantown, they should be in a perfect position to blast through the Big East this season.

While Pitt and Cincy appear on our power rankings for the Big East's representative to the BCS, it needs to be understood that they are about as likely to play in the BCS this season as Ohio State is to have Terrelle Pryor win the Heisman en route to a BCS championship.

Their inclusion says more about the Big East's comical weakness than it does about Pitt's or Cincy's football talent level. Head-to-head, there are a great many people who would take the MWC this season over the Big East. More on that later...

1. West Virginia

2. Connecticut

3. Pittsburgh

4. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 5

The Fiesta Bowl in home to the game between the Big 12 champion and a BCS at-large selection. Due to our projection of Oklahoma's selection for the BCS championship, this season's Fiesta Bowl will feature two at-large teams.

Our first projected participant is Wisconsin. Last year, the Badgers won the BCS tie-breaker in the Big Ten and earned a bid to the Rose Bowl. With the Big Ten beginning divisional play this season, a conference championship game will eliminate co-champions.

We've projected MSU to top Wisconsin in the 2011 Big Ten Championship Game, but Wisconsin's run through the Leaders Division should leave them ranked high enough to earn an at-large BCS bid. Besides Wisconsin, there are many other candidates for a spot in the Fiesta Bowl, and since neither spot in the this bowl will be decided by conference, we're going to combine our power rankings for the Fiesta Bowl bids.

One conference you should never count on having just one BCS team is the SEC. The SEC West has enough power that a team that doesn't qualify for the SEC Championship Game could easily lose out because of only one or two losses. That could very well be the case for LSU this season. Although we've projected Alabama as SEC champions in 2011, that doesn't mean that LSU won't be a mighty good team this season.

Beyond LSU, there are a number of other teams already discussed that could slide into the Fiesta Bowl, depending on final poll details.

1. Wisconsin

2. LSU

3. Oklahoma State

4. Oregon

5. Virginia Tech

6. Arkansas

7. Georgia

8. Penn State

BCS National Championship Game, Jan. 9

While the Rose Bowl may be the “Granddaddy Of Them All,” the BCS National Championship Game is the bowl in which every team wants to play.

We've already mentioned that Oklahoma is one of the teams we've projected to play in the BCS championship at the end of this season. But that means we've accounted for all of the BCS Automatic Qualifiers, including Notre Dame. So where do we get their opponent?

Look no further than Boise, Idaho.

We've explained our reasoning behind this selection here, but since we're power ranking who else might show up in this game, we'll need to look at all of the rest of the programs that could end up playing in the “late game” in New Orleans this year. With the exception of Boise State, we've already touched on every other team appearing on the rankings.

Boise State's loss to Nevada last year may prove to be a good thing for the Broncos. It definitely left a sour taste in Boise's mouth, as they went from playing in the Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl to playing in the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl, whatever that is. Any other 11-1 team forced to play in a minor bowl that no one was able to find on television?

Don't expect Boise State or Kellen Moore to settle for anything less than perfection this season.

1. Oklahoma

2. Boise State

3. Alabama

4. Florida State

5. Oregon

6. Michigan State

7. Arizona State

8. LSU

So there you have our BCS Bowl Game Selection Power Rankings. Mark your calendars. This season is sure to be one of the more exciting season we've seen in years.

Is it September yet?