NFL Predictions: The Top 10 Running Backs Primed for Success in 2011
For those of you that didn't swear to never read another article of mine—as some did after I ranked the top 10 wide receiver groups—here is a similar article looking at the 10 running backs who I think will fare best next season and explaining why I think so.
This is an article based on what lies ahead, not based on what they did last season.
Please read my reasoning and the actual slides before commenting, although putting this here is probably pointless because if you're not going to read the actual slides why would you read the introductory one?
Enjoy!
10. DeAngelo Williams
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Irrelevant of where he lands, DeAngelo Williams is going to have a big year in 2011. It's not like he can end up in many worse places than Carolina.
Williams should find a home that will look to get the best out of him, because he will likely get a big deal from whatever team signs him. Williams is one of the top free agents available this offseason.
He will no longer be splitting time with Jonathan Stewart, which should give him even more opportunities to showcase his explosiveness and physicality. However, even if he does return to Carolina, the Panthers will have a place for him.
Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart are fantastic backs, but a rookie/second year quarterback with little wide receiver talent will make the Panthers a one dimensional offense next season. There will be more than enough carries to go around for Stewart, Goodson and Williams. Since Williams is the best of the trio he would get the most carries, also.
9. Frank Gore
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Jim Harbaugh may be a quarterback coach first and foremost, but he will realize pretty quickly that the San Francisco 49ers' best player is a running back.
Gore missed five games last season which was the only thing that prevented him from his fifth season in a row reaching more than 1,000 yards. The fractured hip he suffered last season shouldn't slow him down next year.
Gore is an underrated back who has been carrying the San Francisco 49ers for basically his whole career. I don't believe Jim Harbaugh is going to make Alex Smith into Peyton Manning if the team re-signs him, but I do think he will get better play from the much maligned quarterback.
Smith has the ability but has yet to make it happen in the NFL. If he can improve even slightly to make the opposition's defense respect the passing game more, Gore will have a huge year.
Should Colin Kapaernik become the team's starter, Gore's work load will become even greater than it already is.
Either way, Frank Gore should have a big season in 2011, much like the last five, even if not many people care to notice.
8. Matt Forte
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The Chicago Bears' offense should improve next season as the offensive line can only get better, and the whole offense will have a full grip on Mike Martz' offense for the whole season.
Matt Forte is going to be a huge part of that offense. As of yet, the Bears still have average wide receivers at best, which will continue to force Martz to call more running plays than he would like. Forte, however, is the team's biggest threat so that shouldn't come as bad news to Bears fans.
His height makes him a viable receiver while his strength makes him one of the strongest backs in the league. If anything, he is slightly too tall as there is more of him for defenders to get hold of, but Forte overcomes that with his talent.
He is a strong running back with surprising speed. He was a home run hitter for the Bears last year as his longest rush was 68 yards while his longest reception was 89 yards. Forte had seven receptions of 20+ yards last season which should continue into next year.
Forte is one of the better running backs in the league and will benefit from an improving offense around him next year. He is entering his prime at 25 years of age and has already overcome his sophomore struggles after an outstanding rookie season.
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7. Rashard Mendenhall
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Rashard Mendenhall hasn't endeared himself to most onlookers during the NFL lockout, but you can't deny him his due on the field.
Mendenhall is one of the few feature backs left in the league. Entering this season for the first time as a starter—after starting 12 games last season—Mendenhall registered his second 1,000 yard season in only his third year. This is made more impressive by the fact that he missed out on most of his rookie season with a broken shoulder courtesy of Ray Lewis.
The former Illinois standout can beat you in many different ways. His dancing feet (literally) combined with his sheer size 5'10" 225 pounds make him very difficult to bring down. Whether he is using his almost patented spin move or putting his head down to try and run you over, Mendenhall is one of the most feared backs in the league.
Remember last season? Mendenhall had to carry the load for the whole offense in the first four games without Ben Roethlisberger. Mendenhall scored four touchdowns in that time and racked up 89 carries. His statistics from last season—1,273 yards and 13 touchdowns—don't tell the whole story, however.
The 23-year-old was running behind an offensive line that had only one of its original starters from when it was entering training camp. With an All-Pro rookie center only looking like improving next season and the return of some key veterans, Max Starks and Willie Colon(should he be re-signed), Mendenhall could eclipse 1,500 yards this season.
One thing Mendenhall does need to improve on is his security of the football. While it is not a major problem, he did lose two fumbles in the regular season and another two—including a crucial one in the Super Bowl—in the playoffs.
You can't hold this against him too much, however, as he was a huge reason why the team made the Super Bowl in the first place.
6. Ray Rice
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Continuing the AFC North theme, Ray Rice is an outstanding talent. The only thing that can prevent Rice from putting up big numbers week in and week out is Ravens' offensive coordinator Cam Cameron.
The Ravens lost their identity to an extent last season trying to put more of the offense on Joe Flacco's shoulders. Rice had more carries than he had the previous season but notably the team only lost one game when he had at least 20 carries.
Rice is the last running back to run for 100 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers. If you can run on that defense—which he didn't last season because of injury and Cameron's play calling in the second matchup—you can run on any defense.
The Ravens should make Rice the focal point of their offense once again. The team is expected to release Willis McGahee. McGahee had only 100 carries last season and LeRon McClain will likely take some of those, but nonetheless Rice should be on the field more often than not.
Durability could be a question mark coming into this season, but of the Ravens' 16 games, they are facing 10 teams who ranked in the bottom half of rushing per attempt from last season.
Couple this with what surely will be an improved offensive line, whether it be through the return of Jared Gaither or the maturity of Michael Oher. Jah Reid has been added to the mix and could make an impression early with his 6'7" 327 pound frame.
Rice is a back that will always find a way to hurt you. Despite the abundance of new receivers in Baltimore last season, he still managed to register 63 receptions. He is lethally dangerous when on the end of screen passes.
5. Jamaal Charles
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This slide should really pay homage to Thomas Jones. Jones and Charles are the best running back duo in the whole league. They perfectly complement each other and one is nowhere near as effective without the other.
Nonetheless Charles is the more explosive of the two and entering the prime of his career while Jones is enjoying the twilight of his.
The 24-year-old averaged a historic 6.4 yards per carry last year on 230 rushes. That number likely won't improve next season as the Chiefs look to move to a more balanced offense but Charles will likely receive more carries. Charles should average somewhere around five yards per carry next season.
His importance to the Chiefs' offense won't waver despite additions elsewhere. His injury in last season's playoff game against the Ravens exemplified just how important a piece he will be for the team over the coming years. The loss of Charlie Weiss should not have a major effect on Kansas City's running back even if it affects the offense as a whole.
You can't take away Charles' ability to beat defenders and explode down the sideline. He is the type of player you can only hope to contain, which becomes more and more difficult after Thomas Jones has repeatedly beaten defenses with his hard-nosed running style.
Charles added over 400 receiving yards to his 1,467 rushing yards last season. He is looking to become a complete all around running back entering his fourth season in the league. I expect he will break into the top tier of the elite running backs in this league, if he is not already there in most people's eyes.
4. LeSean McCoy
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The Philadelphia Eagles brought in Danny Watkins to protect Michael Vick ahead of his second NFL season as the team's starter. Vick was sacked an overwhelming amount last season. However anyone that has watched Vick play will know that there is no realistic way of preventing that from happening.
Watkins will however be an upgrade on the line for both protecting Vick and opening holes for LeSean McCoy to burst through.
McCoy broke the 1,000 rushing mark in only his second NFL season and his first with substantial time on the field. In a few years McCoy could be closer to the top of this list. Right now he is potentially the best dual threat running back (as a runner and receiver).
The former Pitt Panther is like a bigger and stronger Ray Rice. He is just as elusive with breakaway speed and the quickness to make defenders miss in tight areas. McCoy continued on where Brian Westbrook left off as he led the team in receiving with 78 receptions last year (Hey Eagles fans, how does that make sense? I thought they had easily the best receivers in the league*).
McCoy will have to fight against Ray Rice to establish who is the best receiver of the elite running backs in the league. His 592 yards last year ranked him second among running backs while his 78 receptions were obviously first by a long way—12 more than Arian Foster who played one more game.
*This is not directed to all Eagles fans, just a vocal minority.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
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I'd love to tell you that Maurice Jones-Drew will struggle this season because of the poor offense around him or the fact that he suffered with some seemingly serious injuries last season.
However that has been the story of Jones-Drew's career. He is the Jaguars' offense. The team goes as far as he can carry them.
I don't expect Blaine Gabbert to play during his rookie season, but even if he does, it won't affect Jones-Drew's production.
With David Garrard in the game, the talisman back will benefit from Garrard's ability to hold the weak-side defender with his running threat. With Gabbert in the game the team will have to respect the pass a little bit more while Jones-Drew's opportunities to carry the ball will rise (well, rise more than the 299 carries he had in 14 games last season).
Jones-Drew's carry total is made even more startling because of the impressive Rashad Jennings who backs him up. Jennings averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season but still couldn't get more than 89 carries from the man many call Pocket Hercules.
That nickname is well earned as the 26-year-old is one of the strongest backs in the league despite standing at only 5'7". His height actually helps him as defenders have less of him to grab onto while his center of gravity is so low that it allows him to make cuts that others cannot.
The Jaguars have a brilliant run-blocking offensive line with studs such as Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton playing tackle. Monroe is an outstanding left tackle but doesn't receive national acclaim in a league that prefers to celebrate the expert pass-blocking linemen.
The Jaguars' offensive line follows in this mold throughout. The team has a relatively young group of players blowing holes open for Jones-Drew and added guard Will Rackley could potentially improve the group.
2. Chris Johnson
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Statistically you can't argue with Chris Johnson being the best running back in the league. He became one of only six players to eclipse 2,000 yards rushing the season before last while also breaking Marshall Faulk's record for all-purpose yards.
There is no doubt that Johnson is a great back and is deserving of being the top running back. Everyone knows this so I will predominantly explain why he is not the highest ranked back on this list.
While he can run between the tackles well he does not punish defenders much with his 5'11" 191 pound frame. This is nitpicking with a back that is faster than all but one in the whole league—Jamaal Charles wins on the eye test when both are wearing pads—and can score from any position on the field.
He racked up 12 touchdowns with the struggling Titans last year. The Titans don't look like exploding into a playoff team any time soon as their defense needs to transition and the offense is looking to insert rookie Jake Locker.
This will give Johnson extra carries to shine. Unlike other backs on here who love a large work-rate, this doesn't suit Johnson. He is not built to repeatedly carry the ball over 300 times a season. His statistics should suffer this season as defenses can further key in on him.
Last season Johnson really suffered against the teams that went all out to stop him and him alone. In five games—against the Steelers, Broncos, Eagles, Texans and Colts—of last season's 16, Johnson averaged less than three yards per carry. These teams all set out to shut him down which he has no answers for.
Johnson cannot carry defenders on his back but he can definitely outrun them.
1. Adrian Peterson
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Before last season, I thought there was no contest between Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson as the league's best back. In fact I had Peterson ranked behind Maurice Jones-Drew and Stephen Jackson in fourth position.
There is one simple reason for this—fumbles!
My logic was simple; Peterson isn't much of a receiver so he doesn't give you much in the passing game and he couldn't be trusted with the football so he gave you fits as a rusher.
Peterson's determination and attitude has always been obvious with his aggressive running style. What I didn't know at that point was that he carried that determination and attitude with him off the field. His offseason work focused on eradicating his one major flaw as he went from 20 fumbles in three seasons to just one last season, which came in the second to last week of the season.
Peterson is undoubtedly the most violent runner in the NFL today. He will see the football a lot this coming season as the team looks to protect Christian Ponder, but even if they bring in a veteran Peterson remains their best weapon.
Toby Gerhart may have been brought in last season to spell Peterson a bit but in reality Peterson is too good to come off the field except for when he absolutely has to.
Provided that Peterson continues to keep hold of the football there isn't a back in the league that will come close to him. Not even Chris Johnson. This is because no other running back can punish defenders so brutally while still possessing breakaway speed to hurt defenses late in the fourth quarter.
As much as Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson are freaks of nature at the receiver position, Adrian Peterson is one at the running back position.
Notable Exclusions
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Arian Foster
It may come as a major shock to some that I don't have last season's rushing leader on the bill to repeat his performances for next season. In short, Foster is not built to endure the physical toll his body underwent last season and the team is going in a direction that will reduce his effectiveness.
Michael Turner
Whether it is the right or wrong decision, the Falcons will be putting the ball in Matt Ryan's hands more often next season. While Julio Jones was attractive to the Falcons for his run blocking skills, it is not the reason they traded up in the draft for him.
Couple that with the fact that Jason Snelling looks to take away even more of his touches as he continues to emerge as a prominent back in both the rushing and receiving game.
Stephen Jackson
The Rams appointed Josh McDaniels to facilitate their transition to a spread offense. The team is obviously building around Sam Bradford and will be looking to put the ball in his hands as much as possible. Jackson will still be part of the offense but running from the shotgun doesn't suit his style.
He will remain a serviceable back and a threat to opposition defenses with his physicality but the likelihood is his numbers will fall drastically. Jackson is continually fighting niggling injuries, which is a result of the amount of carries he has endured over the past few seasons (over 600 the past two seasons and 1,000 the past four seasons).
Peyton Hillis
Hillis is in a similar position to Jackson in that the team is moving to a west coast offense and will put the ball in Colt McCoy's hands more often. The Browns also drafted Owen Marecic, whom they reportedly believe "has the traits to play fullback in an NFL West Coast offense."
Hillis also had some major fumbling issues last season that were somewhat overlooked because of his impact on the Browns' offense. He could lose a significant number of snaps because of those two factors combined (There's always the Madden curse if none of that affects him!).
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