College Football 2011: Projections for Every BCS Game

Mark your calendars!

The Bowl Championship Series has released the dates of all five BCS games for January. That means it's prediction time!

Who's headed to the Orange Bowl this year? Will Boise State be able to make it back to the BCS? Which Big Ten will rise above the off-season madness and punch a ticket to Pasadena?

What are we waiting for? Let's get right into our projections for every BCS bowl game!

Rose Bowl—January 2

The first thing about this game anyone is going to notice is that it's not on New Year's Day. When January 1 falls on a Sunday, the Rose Bowl is moved to Monday.

The Rose Bowl has also been played on January 3 in 2002 and January 4 in 2006, when the game served as the BCS championship game.

This will be the first January 2 Rose Bowl game since 1995, but the 13th time since the first game on January 1, 1902.

As everyone knows, the Rose Bowl typically pits the champion of the Big Ten against the champion of the Pac-10, now the Pac-12, unless one of those teams is playing in the BCS championship game.

We'll start first with the Big Ten.

The off-the-field mess in Columbus has certainly thrown a wrench into the Big Ten prediction process. For the better part of the last decade, Ohio State could be counted on as one team that was sure to be in the national championship mix at some point each year.

It seems pretty clear that the Buckeyes will be facing some pretty hefty sanctions and will most likely lose at least one year of postseason eligibility. That means no Big Ten championship, as there's now a conference championship game to determine the Big Ten winner, and no bowl game in late December or early January.

While it's true we won't discover the extent of the penalties probably until early August, for the time being, we're going to assume that Ohio State is out of the running. Even if they're not prohibited from appearing, it seems less and less likely they'll be able to survive 2011 long enough to be Big Ten champions.

With Ohio State most likely out of the running, the Leaders Division will come down between Wisconsin and Penn State in 2011. Wisconsin certainly had the better 2010 of the two teams, and ended up winning a share of the Big Ten title last season and earned a trip to the Rose Bowl. As long as nothing changes between now and September, it's likely that Wisconsin will be the favorite to win the first-ever Leaders Division championship in the Big Ten.

But before they can win a ticket back to Pasadena, they'll need to get past the Legends Division champion in the Big Ten Championship Game.

The Legends Division is a little murkier, especially with the addition of Nebraska—still an unknown in terms of Big Ten conference play. It seems likely that this division will be decided on October 29 in Lincoln, when the Cornhuskers host Michigan State.

Michigan State is also a defending co-Big Ten champion, and this season they'll be looking to prove that 2010 wasn't a fluke year. Sparty is also hoping to erase the memory of a shellacking by Alabama in the Capital One Bowl at the end of last year—a game which led many to believe that MSU was a definite pretender of 2010.

But Mark Dantonio is no slouch, and he has quite the collection of returning talent for 2011. While it's too early to tell what kind of noise Nebraska can make in the Big Ten, right now, Michigan State has to be the early favorite in the Legends.

MSU was the only Big Ten team to beat Wisconsin last year, and Wisconsin will again have to travel to East Lansing on October 22 this season. The outcome of that game could go a long way to determine who will be victorious on December 3 in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game. Michigan State has always shown the ability to play Wisconsin well, even when Sparty was vastly over-matched. In 2011, don't expect the Spartans to be over-matched by anyone they play.

Because of that, Michigan State gets our nod as Big Ten champion and Rose Bowl participant for the first time since 1988.

To face off against MSU, we'll need to find a team from the Pac-12. Oregon is everyone's early pick, and there's not much fault to find in that pick. Stanford does have Andrew Luck returning, but beyond that, the Cardinal are massively depleated. USC is still ineligible to play in a bowl game this season (or for that matter, the Pac-12 title game). Newcomers Utah and Colorado don't appear to have the firepower yet to really compete week-in and week-out in the Pac-12.

So it's Oregon, right? In the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friends.”

Arizona State has one heck of a football team shaping up for this season. While many look at ASU's win-loss record of last season and dismiss the Sun Devils out of hand, it's important to look deeper to determine how good ASU can be this season.

Four of ASU's six losses last season were by four or fewer points—two of them were one-point losses. The other two losses consisted of a 11-point loss to Oregon (closer than most of Oregon's opponents) and a blowout loss to Cal.

Either way you look at it, ASU was a grand total of less than two scores away from being 10-2 instead of 6-6.

But 6-6 they were. The old saying goes, “experience is what you get when you don't get what you want.” And experience is exactly what ASU will have this season. They return all 11 starters on offense this season and nine on defense. That is exactly the kind of talent and experience combination needed to win the close games down the stretch.

For Oregon's part, they're certainly returning a great group of athletes and will again be a tough team to beat in 2011. But repeating any type of championship, be it Pac-10/12 or BCS or any other sport, is a very difficult thing to accomplish. The one thing Oregon does have on its side is the feeling of unfinished business. Sometimes that, more than anything else, can spur a team on to do things no one thought possible.

Still, Arizona State's qualities and the (to this point) lack of attention they're getting provides them with a perfect opportunity to return to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1997.

Projected Final Score: Michigan State 35—Arizona State 31

Sugar Bowl—January 3

The second game of the 2011-2012 BCS season will be the Sugar Bowl on January 3.

The game has historically placed the SEC champion against an at-large opponent and does so today, unless the SEC champion plays in the BCS championship. In that case, two at-large teams will play in the Sugar Bowl (although in practice, one of the at-large teams is still from the SEC). In fact, there hasn't been a Sugar Bowl with an SEC team since 2000, and that game served as the BCS title game.

There's been a lot of talk about the SEC's BCS championship streak. Regardless of the reasons for its existence, looking forward the only question that matters is whether or not it can continue.

While it's probably unlikely Auburn even gets close this season, that's not to say there aren't SEC teams in perfect positions for a run at the BCS title this season. In fact, there are two SEC teams that are sure to start the season in the top five—LSU and Alabama.

Both the Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers have quite a squad put together for 2011. Both are hungry for an SEC title after Alabama finished worse than expected (by not winning it all), and LSU finished somewhat better than expected (by being on the cusp of winning it all) in 2010.

While it's difficult to nitpick who will win what game when you're dealing with two teams that seem to be so evenly ranked, we're going to give the nod to Alabama this season.

Before LSU fans get all bent out of shape, it's important to point out that LSU has a more difficult schedule in 2011 than does Alabama. First off, LSU starts the season by meeting up with Oregon. Alabama starts off with Kent State. LSU also plays at West Virginia. The only relatively difficult non-conference game on Alabama's schedule is a depleted Penn State.

Plus, the game that will prove to be pivotal this season in the SEC-West has LSU traveling to Tuscaloosa—never an easy place to win.

Now that we have Alabama as our SEC representative, it's time to search for an opponent. Over the past few seasons, the SEC's opponent has come from anywhere and everywhere across the country. From Cincinnati to Hawai'i to Utah to Virginia Tech. The at-large spots in the BCS really are a great utility for the BCS to plug in whomever they choose. And this year, their choice will be the same team chosen in the 73rd Sugar Bowl—Notre Dame.

Yes, the Irish will make a return to the BCS in just their second year under new head coach Brian Kelly.

Notre Dame will benefit greatly in 2011 from a combination of returning talent and a relatively weak schedule. Notre Dame will also be starting the year ranked high enough in the polls, and a 10-2 Irish squad will finish high enough—eighth or better—in the final BCS poll in order to earn their automatic qualification. Even if Notre Dame finishes lower than eighth, they still have the opportunity to earn an at-large (rather than automatic) berth in the BCS.

Notre Dame's important games throughout the season, including a September 17 showdown against Michigan State, an October 22 visit from USC and a season-ending November 26 trip to Stanford, will prepare Notre Dame for a BCS ticket. Beyond those three games, the Irish only have to take care of USF, Michigan, Pitt, Purdue, Air Force, Navy, Wake Forest, Maryland and Boston College. Not exactly the crucible of tough games one might find in the Big Ten, SEC or Pac-12 these days.

Still, Notre Dame will earn its way back to the BCS, and in doing so, the Fighting Irish will signal to the rest of the nation that the days of snickering at Notre Dame are over.

Projected Final Score: Alabama 31—Notre Dame 17

Orange Bowl—January 4

Day three of the four-day-long bonanza of college football greatness will consist of the 78th Orange Bowl in Miami.

The Orange Bowl's automatic tie-in is with the ACC, and that conference's champion earns a berth to the Orange Bowl, again unless such a team earns a berth to the BCS Championship Game. The ACC champion meets up with an at-large opponent. Every other BCS AQ conference, except for the SEC, has played in the Orange Bowl at least once since the separate BCS championship game was created after the 2005 season.

There are a number of teams in the ACC that have high hopes for a trip to the Orange Bowl this season, but all of the hype seems to surround Florida State. The Seminoles will earn a seemingly ridiculously high preseason ranking, but before the season is half through, they will prove that they were worth all of the talk.

The Seminoles' main adversary in the ACC this season will be, not surprisingly, the Hokies of Virginia Tech. In fact, it's likely that these two cross-divisional rivals will meet up in Charlotte on December 3 to determine exactly who the ACC's representative in the Orange Bowl will be in January.

Last season, the Hokies rebounded nicely after starting off 0-2 against Boise State and FCS James Madison, and ran the table, winning their next 11 games, including the ACC Championship Game against none other than Florida State.

With FCS Appalachian State and ECU comprising the first two games for the Hokies this season, don't expect them to start 0-2. But without Tyrod Taylor, a repeat trip to the Orange Bowl may be a bit beyond their reach.

Ready for revenge are the ever improving Seminoles under second-year head coach Jimbo Fisher.

Don't forget, FSU finished 2010 with a 10-4 record, including an impressive Chick-Fil-A Bowl win over SEC-East champion South Carolina. While FSU does have a monster of game on their schedule against No. 1 Oklahoma, it's important to bear in mind that losing that game would have no bearing on their BCS chances, so long as they win the ACC title.

While the ACC does have some up-and-coming programs, it's doubtful that anyone other than VA Tech has much chance of keeping Florida State from the Orange Bowl this season.

For Florida State's opponent, the Big East will return to their once-traditional bowl game, and this year, it seems as if there's one Big East team that stands out amongst the others. The West Virginia Mountaineers have been slowly rebuilding after the loss of head coach Rich Rodriguez a few years ago. It seems as if WVU finally has the pieces in place to return to the top of the conference in 2011.

Perhaps, the biggest addition to the team is offensive coordinator Dana Holgorson. West Virginia was able to pluck Holgorson from Oklahoma State where he engineered one of the most prolific offenses in the nation last season. Not only was Holgorson offered the offensive coordinator position at West Virginia, but his new job comes with the understanding that he'll be elevated to the head coaching position after the 2011 season when Bill Stewart steps aside.

The short version of this means that you shouldn't expect WVU to rank 67th in the FBS in total offense in 2011.

Adding a productive offense to an already stellar defense will certainly bring the wins back to Morgantown. As bad as the offense was last year, the defense ranked third in the nation and topped the Big East defensive rankings in every meaningful category. While there will be a fair amount of rebuilding necessary with only four full-time starters returning this season, West Virginia does have a good deal of depth on defense, and the players stepping into the starting roles aren't exactly without any experience for the Mountaineers.

It's likely that a September 24 visit from LSU will keep West Virginia from climbing very high in the polls early on, but with the rest of their schedule after that point filled with MAC and Big East opponents, their stock should be soaring come November.

Projected Final Score: Florida State 41—West Virginia 38

Fiesta Bowl—January 5

The 41st Fiesta Bowl will conclude the four-day run of BCS bowls at the end of this season. The Fiesta Bowl, the youngest of the BCS bowls, typically pits the Big 12 champion against an at-large team, but this year, it will for the third time in four years that it features two at-large BCS selections.

The first selection for the Fiesta Bowl is Wisconsin. The Badgers will certainly benefit this season for the mess in Columbus, as we mentioned earlier. While they may fall just short of a Big Ten championship in 2011, their preseason ranking combined with their near miss in 2011 will be enough to keep them in the hunt for a BCS bowl berth.

Wisconsin will keep their tried and true method of winning Big Ten games with a strong, powerful running game complemented by a stifling defense.

But if the Badgers hope to actually win their BCS game this year and erase last season's Rose Bowl loss to TCU, they may need to pull a few more tricks out of the bag in order to beat their Fiesta Bowl opponent.

Louisiana State will begin the year as one of the top teams in the nation. They'll finish the year much the same way with one notable exception. They won't be SEC champions, and they'll be just a few spots lower in the polls than where they were in September. Still, being ranked in the top 10 at the end of the year is nothing with which to be disappointed, although some Tigers fans certainly will.

LSU, like Wisconsin, will be a near miss when it comes to conference championships this season, but their successes will not go unnoticed or unrewarded. LSU will earn a BCS berth and will have the opportunity to be the top SEC representative to face off against a Big Ten team this postseason. The much-loved SEC-Big Ten rivalry may be more important to fans in the south than it is in the Midwest, but the Big Ten fans will always point to their (shrinking) lead in the all-time series, and the SEC fans will always point to their “winning the big games,” as if the Big Ten never won any big games against the SEC.

The truth of the matter is that for such a long time, the Big Ten absolutely dominated the series, especially thanks to the exploits of the Michigan Wolverines, who hold a 20-6-1 record over the SEC. Now, it seems as if it's the SEC's turn. They're certainly closing the gap on the Big Ten's lead, and it's possible that either 2011 or 2012 could see the SEC gain the upper hand in the all-time series (which now stands at 99-95-7 in favor of the Big Ten).

Regardless of who wins this year's Fiesta Bowl, the projected matchup between Wisconsin and LSU could be one of the more entertaining games of the entire year.

Projected Final Score: Wisconsin 23—Louisiana State 21

BCS National Championship Game—January 9

The college football season all comes down to one game. In the closest thing we have to selecting an actual national champion in the top division of college football, the BCS championship is the biggest game of the year, and always (in theory) places the No. 1 ranked team in the nation against the No. 2 ranked team in the nation.

If you've been following along, you'll notice two things.

First, the Big 12 champion hasn't been placed yet, which means they are obviously playing for the big trophy. Oklahoma has the distinct possibility of going wire-to-wire as the No. 1 team in the nation, and all signs point to a likelihood of that happening.

Bob Stoops and company seem to have gotten that BCS curse monkey off their back after last season. Granted, the Sooners played Connecticut, but a BCS bowl win is a BCS bowl win. Oklahoma also has an absolute ton of talent and loads of starters returning this season, which all mean that Oklahoma has their eyes placed squarely on one thing: the BCS trophy.

Remember, there is no Big 12 championship game to get in the way this season. Every game will mean just as much as every other game. Any stumble along the way could mean losing out on the Big 12 championship and a BCS berth as well.

But after years of dominating the Big 12 and still falling short of a national championship, the folks in Norman have probably had enough of all the comments, snickers and mocking. This year, it's BCS title or bust.

Now on to that second little thing you may have noticed. Now that we've accounted for the Big 12, all the conference champions from the BCS Automatic Qualifying conferences (plus Notre Dame) have been placed in a BCS game. So where's Oklahoma's challenger?

Look no further than Boise, Idaho.

While more than a fair share of people will scoff at this projection, it's important to peel away some of the layers to determine exactly how and why Boise State will be placed in the BCS championship game at the end of the 2011 season.

First, Boise State will begin the year ranked in the top 10. There will most likely not be more than one (if that many) undefeated teams in the nation besides Boise State. Given BSU's high preseason ranking, they're sure to move up pretty rapidly after others lose.

Second, Boise State is no longer the only team worth anything in their own conference. For this season, Boise State and TCU will be conference opponents until TCU moves to the Big East for 2012. Nevada has also made the move, so it's entirely possible that Boise State will have two ranked conference opponents this season. That takes care of the strength-of-schedule penalty Boise was getting from those pesky computers.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the biggest strike against the BCS has been that it's not “fair” to all of the FBS programs. Those from the “little five” conferences have no earned access to the BCS, much less the BCS championship. The BCS has always maintained that if there's a deserving team, they could play for the championship—there just hasn't been a deserving team yet, in the eyes of the BCS.

Well, now the federal government is involved. Representatives from the BCS have been asked by the US Justice Department to provide an explanation as to why the BCS isn't in violation of US anti-trust laws. This is the first step in a new effort by the Justice Department to investigate the perceived fairness of the BCS.

Needless to say, the BCS needs to not only tell, but show the Justice Department—and the rest of the nation, for that matter—that the BCS is open to everyone, even if the program isn't from a BCS AQ conference.

So Boise State finally gets a chance to prove that they can play with anyone in the country.

Not to put too much pressure on Boise State, but the entire future of the system could rest on their shoulders in this game. If the Broncos get blown out by Oklahoma, it will allow the BCS and their minions to say, “See? We told you so,” and the non-AQ programs will have to wait years or decades before getting another shot. If Boise State wins, then it's entirely possible that the BCS's house of cards will come tumbling down, and a new BCS system incorporating some type of very limited playoff system will take its place.

Either way, this game could be one of the most important and far-reaching contests in college football history.

Just another year in the exciting world of college football, right?

Projected Final Score: Boise State 42—Oklahoma 41