SEC Football 2011: Predicting Each Team's Record and Bowl Game
Although we’re still two-and-a-half months away from kickoff, it’s never too early to start thinking about football.
During the summer, it's always interesting trying to figure out how each team has improved or declined over the course of the offseason.
Florida is breaking in a new head coach.
The Ole' Ball Coach is playing the wait and see game with quarterback Stephen Garcia.
What will happen with the allegations against Cam Newton and Auburn? How much will the investigation and the loss of several key players hurt the team?
Will this be Mark Richt's final year as the head coach in Athens?
How can Vanderbilt's team get any worse after last year's fiasco?
Luckily for hardcore SEC fans, SEC Football Media Days will begin in another month. Until then, this article will have to suffice in answering questions and satisfying your hunger for football.
Without further adieu, here we go…
SEC East No. 6: Vanderbilt Commodores
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What can you say about Vandy? They try but just can’t win. Unfortunately, this year won’t be any different.
For the past couple of years, Warren Norman and Zac Stacy have been the sparkplugs on an otherwise lifeless offense. This year probably won’t be any different. Larry Smith has shown no signs of improvement. The receiving corps isn’t there. The offensive line needs major improvement from last season.
Senior linebacker Chris Marve is a stud but needs help from the other 10 guys on the field.
In typical Vanderbilt fashion, Bobby Johnson and Robbie Caldwell had a potential weapon in Jamie Graham, but neither guy knew whether to play him on offense or defense. In any case, he’s no longer listed on the roster.
Graham’s case is one of many of Vanderbilt’s head scratching decisions.
The Commodores open the season at home against Elon and Connecticut. They should win those games, and go winless the rest of the way.
Prediction: 2-10, 0-8
Bowl: None
SEC East No. 5: Kentucky Wildcats
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Kentucky reached a bowl game last year to extend the streak to five, but this year, I have hunch it’s coming to a halt.
The Cats have an experienced offensive line but need to replace Mike Hartline, Derrick Locke, Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews.
This won’t be easy. In fact, I’m not sure if anyone on the team can replace Matthews and especially Cobb.
The Wildcats do have junior quarterback Morgan Newton. Newton needs to show more consistency than he’s shown his first couple of years.
With Hartline gone, he can play his game and not worry about making one mistake and being benched.
On defense, Kentucky loses Micah Johnson but returns a veteran group led by senior Danny Trevathan. If Newton and the offense falter, the defense will have that much more pressure to perform.
The team has a winnable non-conference schedule, but Louisville is making a nice resurgence under Charlie Strong, and the game is no longer guaranteed.
Kentucky will probably be 5-5 heading into the final two games of the season, but will lose at Georgia and at home against Tennessee.
Prediction: 5-7, 2-6
Bowl: None
SEC East No. 4: Tennessee Volunteers
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Tennessee seems somewhat intriguing to me.
Sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray played well down the stretch to lead Tennesee to a bowl game but played the softest part of the schedule.
We’ll see if Bray has the stuff when he goes up against Cincinnati, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, South Carolina and Georgia.
Senior running back Tauren Poole had an outstanding junior campaign having eclipsed the 1,000-yard plateau last year.
Sophomores Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers provide to good targets for Bray, and the offensive line will only get better with more experience.
Defensively, the Volunteers have some work to do. They need to replace Chris Walker, Nick Reveiz, LaMarcus Thompson and Janzen Jackson (assuming he doesn’t return).
Head coach Derek Dooley needs highly touted newcomers such as A.J. Johnson, Maurice Couch and Byron Moore to contribute right away.
With Tennessee’s ongoing investigation, Dooley is getting far more than he bargained for when he signed on as coach. The Vols will be decent but will be mauled by the toughest part of their schedule.
Prediction: 7-5, 3-5
Bowl: Liberty
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SEC East No. 3: South Carolina Gamecocks
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Starting quarterback Stephen Garcia’s status is impending following another suspension from the team. Despite Garcia’s inconsistencies, he’s still the best Spurrier has at the moment.
If Garcia‘s gone, look for sophomore running back Marcus Lattimore, who deserves to be an early candidate for the Heisman trophy, to carry a heavier load.
Spurrier is known as a pass-first coach, but he’s no stranger to giving a heavy load to running backs.
Errict Rhett and Fred Taylor racked up over 3,000 yards in their four-year careers at Florida.
Alshon Jeffery is obviously the go-to receiver, but South Carolina needs another target. The other options will not scare anyone.
South Carolina will miss Cliff Matthews but signed perhaps the heir apparent in Jadeveon Clowney. The guy appears to be a Carlos Dunlap clone, but it’s interesting to see how he fares this season.
South Carolina seemed vulnerable against the pass last season. If the secondary doesn’t improve, they will be in big trouble come fall.
Most prognosticators have South Carolina as their early Eastern division winners. However, many fail to see South Carolina’s brutal four-game stretch in which they will play at Mississippi State, at Tennessee, at Arkansas and a home game against Florida.
The Gamecocks are infamous for their late-season slides, and I see the typical slide after starting out 6-0.
Prediction: 8-4, 4-4
Bowl: Gator
SEC East No. 2: Georgia Bulldogs
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This is it for head coach Mark Richt. If his program continues its downward spiral, he’ll be given the ole pink slip.
He was fortunate enough to land one of the top recruiting classes in the country and will need them immediately.
Aaron Murray made Richt look foolish last year. In 2009, Richt, ever known for his loyalty to upperclassmen, started Joe Cox over Murray. While Murray sat out as a red shirt, Cox continued to struggle as quarterback.
He was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise sorry season for Georgia in 2010.
Richt landed managed to keep running back Isaiah Crowell at home, and he should see the playing field immediately with the dismissal of Washaun Ealey.
Will Richt, out of loyalty, stick with Caleb King, a fifth-year senior who’s been a bust in his time with Georgia or give the keys to Crowell?
With A.J. Green off to the NFL, Murray will need another target.
Orson Charles will be one of the best tight ends in the country and could very well take home the Mackey Award.
The Dogs need help from their receiving corps. After being in Green’s shadow for two years, will Tavares King shine? Can Marlon Brown, a junior who’s listed at 6’5” and 222 pounds, finally live up to the hype coming out of high school?
The ole saying goes, “Rome wasn’t built in a day.” The same can be said for defensive coordinator Todd Grantham’s defense.
The Bulldogs didn’t handle the transition to the 3-4 particularly well but were still in the process of searching for the right pieces to fit in.
Georgia struck gold on the defensive front with Sterling Bailey and Ray Drew, but the most important piece is Johnathan Jenkins.
Jenkins is a 6’4”, 340-pound hoss from the junior college ranks and will fit in well at the nose tackle position.
No team in the country boasts a better kicker and punter tandem than Blair Walsh and Drew Butler. These two guys should win the Lou Groza and Ray Guy awards.
Add in Brandon Boykin as a lethal kick returner and Georgia hands down has the best special teams unit in the country.
Georgia will be improved, but I predict losses to Boise State, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Florida. At this point of the season, Georgia will be 4-4. Will Richt get fired?
Prediction: 8-4, 5-3
Bowl: Chick-fil-A
SEC East No. 1: Florida Gators
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Florida’s success hinges on the success of one man…John Brantley. If he manages to play well, Florida will be successful.
If he makes boneheaded plays and acts as if he is as a Sweathog on Welcome Back, Kotter, the Gators will be up the creek.
Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey are two proven spread running backs who will try to prove they can run in a pro-style offense.
Frankie Hammond, Jr. and Omarius Hines showed playmaking abilities when Brantley threw a catchable pass.
Inexplicably, Andre Debose was never given a fair chance on offense after proving his worth on kick returns.
Young receivers such as Quinton Dunbar, Robert Clark and Solomon Patton will be counted on to contribute to the receiving corps.
Jordan Reed will be able to fully showcase his skills as a full-time tight end this season.
Like Brantley, it’s now or never for Deonte Thompson. Getting open has never been Thompson’s problem…catching it is the problem.
Outside of Halapio and Nixon, Florida will be starting over on the offensive line.
From what was witnessed last season, it’s good news for Florida fans. Unfortunately, Halapio and Nixon were subpar at best.
Florida should have an excellent duo of defensive tackles between Sharif Floyd and Jaye Howard. Ronald Powell, Chris Martin and Dominique Easley will get a chance to play heavy minutes on the line this year.
Junior Jon Bostic and redshirt sophomore Jelani Jenkins had their ups and downs as full-time starters but should be much improved after one year in the physical SEC.
The biggest Achilles’ heel has to be the secondary.
The dismissal of Janoris Jenkins, a sure lock for the first round of the 2012 NFL draft, hurts the secondary. The secondary now deals with losing Ahmad Black and Jenkins.
Jeremy Brown was inconsistent, but it’s to be expected after missing two years with back injuries. He will be very good with more experience.
Will Hill’s lackluster play at safety will not be missed. Time will only tell if junior Josh Evans and sophomore Matt Elam can be the next great tandem at safety.
Special teams will be a cause for some concern. Caleb Sturgis is back after missing most of last year with a back injury. However, Sturgis has not proven to be the most reliable kicker.
The Orange and Blue have the toughest schedule in the country and take on “Murderer’s Row” once again in SEC play. I predict Florida will beat Tennessee, Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina and Florida State. Florida will have tough losses to Alabama at home and LSU on the road.
Prediction: 10-3, 6-2
Bowl: Capital One
SEC West No. 6: Ole Miss Rebels
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After starting out 18-8 in his first two years, Houston Nutt’s squad hit rock bottom with a 4-8 record last year.
Randall Mackey looks to be the quarterback for the Rebels in 2011. Mackey, a highly touted junior college quarterback, redshirted in favor of Jeremiah Masoli last year.
Senior running back Brandon Bolden tallied 17 total touchdowns this year and will top the mark unless other players step up to help.
The Rebels struggled last year after losing several key players on both sides of the ball.
This year they have to replace the defensive tackle position with the graduation of Jerrell Powe, Ted Laurent and Lawon Scott.
With linebacker D.T. Shackelford missing at least most of the season with a torn ACL, Ole Miss will need their young linebackers to step up in his absence.
The secondary, led by seniors Marcus Temple and Damien Jackson, will need to do much better than their showing in 2010.
I expect the Rebels to play better, but won’t have anything to show for it, outside a lone conference win at Vanderbilt.
Prediction: 4-8, 1-7
Bowl: None
SEC West No. 5: Auburn Tigers
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Auburn shocked the college football world and brought home the SEC’s fifth consecutive national championship.
Now, here comes the hard part…dealing with the target on their backs.
Redshirt junior quarterback Barrett Trotter (assuming he’s named the quarterback) is similar to Florida quarterback John Brantley in a few ways.
Both are taking over as redshirt juniors and both replace the greatest athlete in their school’s history (sorry Bo Jackson).
Neither guy fits within the spread offense.
If Trotter falters, redshirt sophomore Clint Moseley and true freshman Kiehl Frazier will be waiting in the wings.
Frazier, a 6’2”, 210-pound quarterback from Arkansas, could be the next Cam Newton but very well could be Kodi Burns 2.0.
The Tigers have two talented running backs in Michael Dyer and Onterrio McCalebb, but how will they fare without Cam Newton?
Defenses had to account for Newton running the ball, which made it easier for the running backs.
Darvin Adams’ early defection to the NFL hurts. The group as a whole wasn’t good before but will be worse without him.
Junior tight end Phillip Lutzenkirchen is the best target, but Auburn will need help the receivers to step up.
Auburn will be forced to start over for the most part with the offensive line. Brandon Mosley is the lone returning starter. Senior A.J. Greene returns after missing most of last year with an ankle injury.
The Tigers will have large voids on defense as well. Not only does Nick Fairley need to be replaced, but linebackers Josh Bynes and Craig Stevens do as well.
Nosa Eguae played well last season, but can he hold down the fort like Fairley did last year?
Neiko Thorpe leads a mostly inexperienced secondary. If last year’s experienced secondary was burned often, imagine what this year’s inexperienced group will look like.
The loss of Wes Byrum, who kicked the game-winning field goal in the National Championship, should not be undervalued.
Outside of his sophomore season, Byrum showed why he was one of the most dependable kickers in school history.
Chizik brought in a solid recruiting class, but I expect major growing pains with this year’s squad.
The questions surrounding Newton and the program will only have a negative vibe on a young team.
This year’s struggles will pay dividends down the road, unless sanctions, handed down by the NCAA, decimates the program.
Prediction: 6-6, 2-6
Bowl: Music City
SEC West No. 4: Mississippi State Bulldogs
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Dan Mullen has created quite a buzz around Starkville with the play of his Bulldogs. His teams have fielded tough defenses and mediocre offenses. Imagine what his offense would have looked like with Cam Newton at quarterback.
Against Michigan, Chris Relf looked like Cam Newton. Against everyone else, he looked like a lost cause.
Mississippi State certainly needs him to step it up in his final year.
Although backup quarterback Tyler Russell was rated 4-stars coming out of high school, he looked no better than Relf—if not worse.
Senior running back Vick Ballard was a pleasant surprise for the Bulldogs as he tallied 20 touchdowns last year.
Junior wide receiver Chad Bumphis could have been a 1,000 yard receiver with a more consistent quarterback throwing him the ball.
On the defensive front, losing Pernell McPhee hurts, but the Bulldogs return plenty of experience.
Mississippi State also loses K.J. Wright and Chris White at linebacker. Senior Chris Maye will try to offset one of the losses.
The secondary should be one of the most experienced in the SEC. However, they’ve been the weakest link for the Bulldogs on the defensive side in the past couple of years.
Mississippi State will have one of their best seasons in a while and will be in contention for the SEC West title late in the year.
My guess is the Bulldogs fall at Auburn, at home against Alabama and at Arkansas. A shot at a 10-win season isn’t too shaby around Starkville.
Prediction: 9-3, 5-3
Bowl: Outback
SEC West No. 3: Arkansas Razorbacks
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Arkansas will field one of the most experienced teams in the league. The biggest losses are quarterback Ryan Mallet and tight end D.J. Williams.
Redshirt junior quarterback Tyler Wilson will step in for Mallet.
He filled in admirably in the place of an injured Mallet in a 65-43 loss at Auburn last season. He finished with 25-for-34 for 332 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions.
Junior Knile Davis enjoyed a great breakout season as he eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark.
Although the Razorbacks lose senior running back Broderick Green to a torn ACL, they get redshirt junior running back/kick returner Dennis Johnson, who missed most of last year, back in the mix.
Wilson will have plenty of targets at his disposal from the likes of seniors Joe Adams, Greg Childs and Jarius Wright.
Junior Chris Gragg will take the place of D.J. Williams at the tight end spot.
Arkansas played better on defense last year but still has a long way to go if they want to pass the likes of Alabama and LSU on a consistent basis.
Defensive end Jake Bequette and linebacker Jerry Franklin are two seniors will look to set the tone for the defense this year.
Arkansas plays well, but I’m predicting losses against Texas A&M, Alabama and LSU.
Prediction: 9-3, 5-3
Bowl: Cotton
SEC West No. 2: LSU Tigers
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Year in and year out, Louisiana State will always be one of the most talented teams in the country.
LSU has the targets in juniors Rueben Randle, Russell Shepard and Deangelo Peterson, but who will throw them the ball?
Jordan Jefferson? Jarrett “Pick Six” Lee? Junior college transfer—by way of Georgia—Zach Mettenberger?
LSU also has to replace Stevan Ridley at running back.
LSU has a slew of young backs in sophomores Spencer Ware, Alfred Blue, Michael Ford, redshirt freshmen Jakhari Gore and 4-star Kenny Hilliard.
On the defensive side of the ball, Patrick Petersen, Drake Nevis and Kelvin Sheppard will be sorely missed.
Defensive end Sam Montgomery will be back after a knee injury cost him half of his freshman season. Defensive tackles Michael Brockers and Josh Downs will get their chance to showcase their talent.
Junior linebacker Ryan Baker is back for more after recording 87 tackles and seven sacks as a sophomore.
Cornerback Tyrann Mathieu flourished as a freshman, but will now be counted on as the man in the secondary. Will he rise to the occasion or fold under the pressure?
LSU’s special teams spots are up for grabs as well.
Drew Alleman and Brad Wing are slated to be the new kicker and punter.
Kicker James Hairston signed on in the class, and it will be interesting to see if he can win the kicking job from Alleman.
The Bayou Bengals will need to find a new return man to replace Peterson.
LSU survives in a thriller against Oregon, but will be upset at Mississippi State. I’m predicting LSU will enter the fourth quarter with a lead but will fall in Tuscaloosa to Alabama.
Prediction: 10-2, 6-2
Bowl: Sugar
SEC West No. 1: Alabama Crimson Tide
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Alabama will have a somewhat of a chip on their shoulders after last year’s heartbreaking 28-27 defeat at home in the greatest Iron Bowl ever played.
Breaking a new quarterback is the first for the Crimson Tide.
Whoever wins the job between redshirt sophomore A.J. McCarron and redshirt freshman Phillip Sims will have the luxury of one of the top running backs in the country in junior Trent Richardson.
The one minus for the new quarterback is the loss of Julio Jones. The receiving corps will need to play well as a whole to offset his loss.
Without a true option at receiver, opponents will fill free to load the box with eight or nine men to stop Richardson.
With that said, Saban and offensive coordinator Jim McElwain will want to keep things simple for the unexperienced singal caller.
They aren't going to put the quarterback in a position to lose a game with a poor play call.
Seniors Darius Hanks and Marquise Maze return at wideout, but neither guy has proven to be a true number one option.
Hanks is more of a possession receiver, while Maze is a good slot receiver.
Redshirt sophomore Michael Bowman (6’4”, 225 pounds) adds a physical presence to the receiving corps.
Youngsters Keiwan Malone, DeAndrew White, Kenny Bell, Ronald Carswell and Kevin Norwood will be counted on to soften the loss of Jones.
Defensive end Marcel Dareus is the biggest loss on the defensive side of the ball.
Nose tackle Jesse Williams, a defensive tackle from junior college, is a guy who will see heavy minutes in Saban’s 3-4 scheme.
Alabama boasts the best and deepest line backing corps in the country. With highly regarded linebackers such as Trey DePriest and Brent Calloway, the rich is only getting richer.
Robert Lester and Mark Barron were phenomenal last year.
DeMarcus Milliner and Dre Kirkpatrick really hit their strides once they gained the experience needed towards the end of the season.
Throw in senior cornerback DeQuan Menzie and incoming freshman safety Ha’Sean Clinton-Dix, and this will be the best secondary in the country.
Saban must find new return men to replace Jones and Richardson. With Richardson being the featured back, it makes absolutely no sense to risk him to injury fielding kicks.
A healthy Richardson is the difference between a national championship and a New Year’s Day bowl.
Even if the offense struggles, there’s no reason to believe the defense won’t win a couple of games this year for the Tide.
I’ll predict close wins versus Florida and LSU, comfortable wins versus Arkansas and Penn State and a blow out over Auburn in the key games.
Prediction: 13-0, 8-0
Bowl: BCS National Championship
2011 SEC Championship
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A few weeks ago, I actually predicted Florida as a dark horse for the national championship. There’s something about this team (although I certainly didn’t see it in the spring game) that tells me they can win a national championship this year.
Round 2 of Muschamp versus Saban, also known as "Student versus Teacher Part Deaux" would be very entertaining.
Muschamp would have one week to prepare against the man that has mentored him.
However, I’ll go against my better instincts and will pick the Tide to win the SEC Championship.
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