College Football Predictions 2011: Preview for the Big Ten Conference
Nebraska was accepted with open arms as the Big Ten's 12th member last June.
College football will have a twist this year.
It was decided that, like the SEC and other major conferences, a championship game would be played for now on.
And a division among the 12 teams would be required to do so.
According to Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany, the divisions were settled by factoring three requirements: guaranteeing competitive equality, maintaining rivalries and securing geographical boundaries. It was decided that this separation would only exist in football.
It was also concluded that Legends and Leaders would be the names of the two divisions.
Delany also declared that each team will play five games against the other members of its division, that there will be at least one secured crossover game.
A ninth conference game is hoped to be added by 2015.
This is how the two divisions will play out beginning in 2011:
Legends: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern.
Leaders: Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin.
The Big Ten isn't the only football conference with extreme renovations. The Big 12 has been dissolved, and the Pac-10 (now the Pac-12) has been widely expanded, while smaller conferences like the WAC and Mountain West have made some noise.
However, my eyes are set on this year's Big Ten. We're being set up for an interesting and unpredictable football season.
And I wouldn't have it any other way.
This is my preview for each team in its renewed conference.
Legends
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6. Minnesota 2-10 (0-8) — The Golden Gophers have combined for a 23-40 record in their last five seasons. They ended 2010 on a two-game winning streak, defeating Illinois and Iowa. Quarterback Adam Weber threw for 389 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions in those games.
However, he will not be returning in '11.
Instead, backup QB MarQueis Gray is expected to start. He has completed a total of eight passes in his career.
The defense brings back a squad that allowed 33 points per game last season. New defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys has a successful background but may be biting off more than he can chew with this one.
B1G WIN: None B1G LOSS: versus Miami (OH)
5. Iowa 6-6 (3-5) — The Hawkeyes finished the 2010 season with a disappointing 8-5 record after starting off 5-1. They lost thier last three regular season games against Northwestern, Ohio State and Minnesota. Iowa scored 20.6 points per game in its last five decisions.
This is not good news for a team that loses seven starters on offense, including star quarterback Ricky Stanzi.
Although it brings back the majority of the offensive line, key faces will be missing—Ricky Stanzi, tailback Adam Robinson, fullback Brett Morse, tight end Allen Reisner, and wide receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos.
Not only will the offense struggle, but Iowa returns just five to what was an exceptional defensive crew.
B1G WIN: at Purdue B1G LOSS: versus Michigan
4. Michigan 7-5 (4-4) — The U of M finished its last season under Rich Rodriguez with a 7-6 record and lost to the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the Gator Bowl. Believe it or not, but this was Michigan's best year since 2007.
It may have taken awhile for the Wolverines football program to get used to Rodriguez's fast-paced, run-oriented version of the spread. But this was a process that athletic director Dave Brandon didn't have time for. After going 15-22 in three season, Rodriguez's era in Michigan was over.
And now the helm has been handed to Brady Hoke, former coach of San Diego State.
Hoke runs a pass-first style of the spread. The Aztecs averaged nearly 300 yards in the air in 2010, which ranked 12th in the nation. This offense transition won't take as long as Rodriguez's, but it won't be the foundation of winning right away, either.
The Wolverines return ten starters on offense, including dual-threat quarterback Denard Robinson. He passed for 2,570 yards in 2010 while rushing for 1,702 — the first player in NCAA history to pass and rush for over 1,500 yards each.
However, the question still lingers about his passing efficiency. Robinson seems to be more accurate when he's not forced to throw the ball a lot. When Rodriguez was coach, this wasn't a problem. But now Brady Hoke is head coach — we'll see Robinson's true athleticism in '11.
The defense returns eight starters from a team that allowed over 35 points per game last season.
35!
Former Ravens defensive coordinator Greg Mattison will take over this awful defense in hopes to retain what used to be a prideful asset of Michigan football.
B1G WIN: at Illinois B1G LOSS: versus Ohio State
3. Northwestern 8-4 (5-3) — After a surprising 8-5 record in 2009, the Wildcats got off to a hot 5-0 start in '10.
Then they hit a brick wall.
Northwestern won just two of seven games to end the regular season. It then followed with a shootout loss to Texas Tech in the TicketCity bowl.
But with nine starters coming back on the offensive side of the ball, big things are expected for Pat Fitzgerald's 'Cats.
Quarterback Dan Persa returns for his senior season. He passed for 2,581 yards and 15 touchdowns while rushing for 519 yards and nine scores.
He'll have his No. 1 receiver back in Jeremy Ebert, who caught 62 balls for 953 yards and eight TDs.
Northwestern should have no problems putting points on the board. It's the defense that fans will have to worry about—opponents averaged 29 points against the Wilcats' defense in 2010, and they return seven starters for this season.
B1G WIN: at Illinois B1G LOSS: at Boston College
2. Michigan State 9-3 (6-2) — The Spartans found their way to an 11-1 regular season record in 2010. This was before an embarrassing loss to Alabama in the Capital One Bowl.
But they're ready for another promising run.
The Spartans lost deep-threat receiver Mark Dell, tight end Charlie Gantt and three startling offensive linemen on offense. Six starting players will not be dressing on defense, including First-Team All-American linebacker Greg Jones.
However, they bring back quarterback Kirk Cousins and a trio of running backs that integrated nearly 2,000 yards last season. They are excited to give coach Mark Dantonio his first BCS bowl appearance, and its a very good possibility that it can happen.
B1G WIN: at Ohio State B1G LOSS: at Notre Dame
1. Nebraska 10-2 (6-2) — The Cornhuskers are coming off their first back-to-back 10-win seasons since 2000-01.
They're looking for a three-peat.
Taylor Martinez, the magnificent freshman quarterback from a year ago, comes back for his sophomore season, and his physicality will try to blend in with the smash-mouth Big Ten. His stats weren't jaw-dropping, but when you're a power-running football team, his contribution sufficed.
The upcoming sophomore passed for 1,631 yards and had 965 on the ground. He scored a total of 22 touchdowns.
The Big Ten is known for its running game. This would work out great for last year's Nebraska team, which averaged just under 250 yards per contest. That formula of pounding the ball and playing defense is missing some big names this year: three starting offensive linemen and power back Roy Helu have departed.
The defense brings back an outstanding (and scary) defensive line. Opposing offenses will have a hard time running the ball on defensive tackle Jared Crick and the rest of his heavy-duty D-line teammates.
This won't be the same high-scoring Nebraska squad we saw in 2010, but it will find a way to play smash-mouth football and win ball games.
Bo Pelini has implemented a winning attitude, and it will continue to drive the Cornhuskers to a first-place finish in the Big Ten's Legend's division and a BCS appearance.
B1G WIN: versus Ohio State B1G LOSS: at Penn State
Leaders
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6. Indiana 3-9 (0-8) — Indiana is coming off of a 5-7 season in 2010.
The sad part is, that'll probably be its best season for awhile.
The Hoosiers lose starting quarterback Ben Chappell. He broke the school's single-season passing record with 3,295 yards last season, adding 24 touchdowns through the air.
Star receiver Tandon Doss was drafted to the Baltimore Ravens in the fourth round. His huge numbers will be missed greatly on what will be a struggling Indiana Hoosiers team in 2011.
B1G WIN: None B1G LOSS: versus Virginia
5. Purdue 5-7 (2-6) — Statistics were the Boilermakers' worst enemy last year. Well, that and every opponent they faced.
Purdue ranked 112th in the NCAA with its passing game at 150.8 per game. Its heart was still beating with the running game, which averaged 160 yards. But when your defense is allowing almost 30 each game and your offense is only throwing 19.7 on the scoreboard, it's hard to win games.
The Boilermakers have questions all over the place, including who the starting QB will be. But when its all said and done, Purdue will win five games at best. I expect improvement from 2010 but no bowl game.
B1G WIN: versus Middle Tennessee B1G LOSS: versus Illinois
4. Illinois 6-6 (3-5) — This is a tricky one. The Fighting Illini could be a very dangerous team in 2011. They return nine starters on what was already a very good offense. However, they lose the biggest asset to that high-scoring team from a year ago; running back Mikel Leshoure was drafted by the Detriot Lions. He rushed for 1,697 yards and 17 touchdowns last year.
The Fighting Illini return four starting offensive linemen and a quarterback with a year of experience under his belt. They reacquire five (not including Michael Buchanan who is suspended) of 11 starters on defense, including cornerback Trulon Henry.
Nevertheless, Illinois is a raw-talent team and have yet to beat a ranked opponent since 2007.
B1G WIN: versus Arizona State B1G LOSS: versus Northwestern
3. Ohio State 9-3 (5-3) — Who knows what will become of the Ohio State Buckeyes in the future. All we know now is that they are Terrelle Pryor-less, Jim Tressel-less and still have four starters suspended for the first five games.
But it looks as if they'll still have a decent season.
The Buckeyes have the talent to get by Akron, Toledo and Colorado with ease. Miami will be a problem, but OSU has a knack for beating the Hurricanes lately. The three losses I have here come from Michigan State, Nebraska and Wisconsin.
But who knows how good Ohio State will be and how much of an impact freshman quarterback Braxton Miller will make?
Ohio State could either be looking at 11-1 (I don't see a win at Nebraska) or 6-6. We'll just have to see how this one plays out.
The Big Ten did a great job with accomodating the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry. These teams are seperated between divisions, but they will still play each other on the last regular season game of the year.
It also gives the possibility of seeing the rivals play two weeks in a row for the Big Ten championship game, which is downright wonderful for college football.
BIG WIN: at Miami (FL) BIG LOSS: versus Wisconsin
2. Penn State 9-3 (6-2) — Penn State loses its tailback and a chunk of its offensive line for the 2011 season. But boy oh boy, does its defense look good.
Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions come stumbling into the new year after a disappointing 7-6 campaign in 2010. They were 0-4 against ranked teams, losing by an average score of 29-11.
The offense looks to improve off of an overall sub-par season. It brings back sophomore starting quarterback Rob Bolden and the trio of receivers in Moye, Brown and Smith—these guys combined for 113 receptions, 1,700 yards and 10 touchdown grabs.
The defense returns its entire D-line and secondary. Be prepared to watch one tough Nittany Lions squad in 2011.
B1G WIN: versus Nebraska B1G LOSS: versus Alabama
1. Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1) — The Badgers are 43-4 at home since 2004. This supports the common phrase, "Wisconsin doesn't lose in Madison."
And wouldn't you know it, Wisconsin has eight home games in 2011.
The Badgers lost quarterback Scott Tolzien to graduation, running back John Clay and All-American offensive linemen Gabe Carimi and John Moffit to the NFL draft. This will certainly provide a few problems for the upcoming season.
Problems that will be resolved in Week 1.
Wisconsin has had a great running game since before I was born; even though they lose a force on the O-line, they have James White returning. White rushed for 1,052 yards and 14 touchdowns as a freshman last year and split carries with Clay.
Sophomore Jon Budmayr is expected to start at quarterback in place of Tolzien. He completed eight of 10 passes in his two appearances last season.
The Badgers are presented with a very winnable schedule, which is a huge reason I have them winning the Leaders division. The majority of better teams on their schedule will be played at home, and I see their one loss coming on the road to a hungry Michigan State team.
B1G WIN: versus Nebraska B1G LOSS: at Michigan State
With Nebraska atop of the Legends and Wisconsin winning the Leaders, a hard-nosed regular season rematch between the two will be set up in the Big Ten championship game.
Looking forward to it!
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