Ohio State-Penn State Analysis: Game Hinges on Chris Wells' Performance

In order for Ohio State to cruise to another Big Ten title - and possibly draw the ire of the nation with a third straight national title appearance - star tailback Chris "Beanie" Wells must have a tremendous game on the ground. When the ninth-ranked Buckeyes take the field in Columbus on Saturday, they will have to fight a very formidable team across the field in third-ranked Penn State. The Nittany Lions' defense will have to stop Wells by integrating more blitz packages and limiting traffic in the box if they hope to gain sole possession of first place in the Big Ten conference.

Wells, when healthy, is far-and-away the top running back in the nation with the most first round potential for the 2009 NFL Draft. At 6-1, 237 lbs. Wells possesses imposing size and is able to punish smaller defenders with ease, as illustrated by his 619 rushing yards in five games this season. Wells also mixes in deceptive speed, as he has shown many times throughout his career (see: 65 yard TD run vs. eventual National Champion LSU in last year's title game). Although it is obvious that Penn State must tackle the powerful Wells low, more relevant are the defensive schemes the Nittany Lions must utilize to get to him.

Wells, combined with freshmen quarterback Terrelle Pryor, provide an extremely formidable two-headed monster in the Ohio State backfield. Pryor’s recent success has been well-documented: he is undefeated as a starter and exposes defenses with his 6-6, 235 pound frame. Pryor is a long strider who easily brings up memories of current Tennessee Titans’ backup and Texas legend Vince Young. Penn State must stop the run in order to force the young QB to pass, because as good as Pryor is thus far in his development, his passing skills are questionable at this point. The obvious result of forcing Pryor to throw under pressure is turnovers, and they might be the Nittany Lions’ greatest asset on Saturday.

Turning up the heat on Pryor will not be relevant, however, unless Penn State finds a way to limit Wells. In doing so, they will be able to put all the pressure on the young freshman behind center. Blitzing the banged-up Ohio State offensive line is the first way to stop Wells. Penn State cornerbacks Tony Davis and A.J. Wallace have done an excellent job thus far in zone coverage, and the framework of the zone should enable them to use their size to take down Wells in zone blitzes from the corner. Safety Anthony Scirrotto, who has great strength to counteract his sub-par speed, will be more than able to cover the zones vacated by Davis and Wallace.

The aforementioned blitzes are a necessary addition to complement Penn State’s defensive line and linebackers, who will be the main players in containing Wells. The only time Penn State has had trouble this year was against teams with spread offenses, mainly in Illinois and Michigan. It was against the run that Penn State suffered, especially early in the game when they were down 17-7 to Michigan. In those games the linebackers were caught up in heavy traffic in the middle, with blockers and receivers clogging space and allowing backs like Illinois’ Daniel Dufrene (96 yards) and Brandon Minor (117 yards, 2 TDs) to run wild. You can bet that Ohio State Head Coach Jim Tressel took great notice of those backs’ production, and he would be wise to also look out the QB’s rushing success in those games as well (Illinois’ dual threat Juice Williams: 64 yards rushing, Michigan’s very slow, 6-8 Steven Threet: 50 yards rushing). These numbers are very alarming and are in the Buckeyes’ favor for utilizing Wells’ obvious skills and Pryor’s speed.

Penn State LBs Tyrell Sales, Josh Hull, and Navorro Bowman must show better vision in order to take down Wells during his initial burst through the offensive line. It is a given that they must read the spread option attack well, but when “Beanie” has the ball they must tackle low near the line of scrimmage to prevent him from getting loose. While DTs Ollie Ogbu and Jared Odrick will challenge the banged-up defensive front of Ohio State, the X-factor for Penn State will be DE Aaron Maybin. Maybin has 10 sacks this season, and his ability to challenge Buckeyes’ OT Alex Boone will determine the initial cuts of either Wells or Pryor.

One could certainly make the argument that the game could come down to the two signal callers, Pryor and Darryl Clark, who have yet to face significant pressure against an elite team this season. The impact of Wells, however, is too significant to ignore in a Big Ten game in Columbus. Expect Tressel to take advantage of Penn State’s run defense, with Ohio State winning 28-24 in a game where “Beanie” Wells shows his pre-season Heisman form and overcomes his sore foot injury.