Washington Nationals: Take Some Advice From Tampa Bay

The Nats have to start instilling hope in their fan base. The Rays have given hope to every small-market team in the league. This year’s Rays should be proof enough that payroll doesn’t buy championships; you have to out-think the field.

It starts with the Draft: The Rays spent years stock piling their farm system. You have to make subtle trades to acquire high-upside pieces down the road, sign players to no-risk contracts, and most importantly, stop tilting at windmills making token efforts to improve.

Early in the Rays existence they signed Lou Piniella, and guys like Greg Vaughn and Wade Boggs who have the appearance of winning. Appearances don’t put fans in the stands, wins do.

The fans don’t want to flail at contention for one year, they want to see hope down the line for perennial contention. Washington, DC is inherently a weird place to start a new franchise. A large part of the people in DC aren’t from DC so there’s no “hometown” allegiance, and many come here as fans of other teams.

The Nats have a tougher fan base to win over.

The true value of players happens early in their careers. Baseball players are attached to a franchise for around six years after their draft. It’s an incredibly complicated process involving terms like super-twos and arbitration, but it’s safe to say that teams get the most value (production versus cost) from the good players they draft. The draft is where a franchise finds hope.

The Rays have drafted phenomenally well over their five or six years. No team gets every pick right, but that’s why you have 25-30 picks per year–you get a huge margin for error.  

Teams need to take both high probability/lower-ceiling players as well as low probability/high-ceiling players to keep the right balance of talent, but talent is the key in the equation.

Over the past six years the Rays have drafted Evan Longoria, David Price, BJ Upton, Delmon Young, Andy Sonnanstine, Elijah Dukes, Josh Hamilton, Jacoby Elsbury, and so many more. Not all of those picks have ended up on the Rays (Hamilton is in Texas via Cincinnati, Young is in Minnesota, Elsbury is in Boston), but look at all that talent.

In addition, they have guys like Reid Brigniac in the pipeline. The point is, for years baseball executives have been drooling over the Rays’ talent and have been trying to steal players unsuccessfully.

Getting the talent isn’t the only part; evaluating it is also paramount. Teams tend to fall in love with guys they draft long after the love is proven false (see: Peña, Willy Mo).

 The Rays traded Young to Minnesota for Matt Garza (potential ace) and Jason Bartlett (good place holder). They knew Young wasn’t as good as his stock and they sold high.  The Mets being desperate (as always) to sneak into the playoffs, traded what is a young, potential ace in Scott Kazmir, for Victor Zambrano (long since out of baseball). Think the Mets could’ve used Kazmir this year?

The draft and trade aren’t the only places that teams build talent. Teams like the A’s and Padres have invested heavily in Latin America. International players aren’t subject to the draft, so scouting and early involvement are paramount.

The Padres just built a truly amazing new facility in the Dominican Republic to start training and scouting players, and to start building a relationship with the local area.  Boston, Los Angeles, and Seattle have heavily invested in the Pacific Rim to mostly positive results.

Here’s the problem. The Rays resurgence was fueled by a front office that was creative, forward thinking, and incredibly well organized and disciplined. How many of us have faith that The Nats’ administration is capable of this? This is the sound...of silence.