College Football Predictions 2011: Ohio State and Every FBS Conference Champion
With nearly all of the coverage surrounding the college football wold centering on off-field scandals, it's time to dive into some actual college football talk with some preseason predictions.
There are some big-time stories heading into the 2011-2012 college football season. Who will prove superior in the SEC with Cam Newton gone? Can the Ohio State Buckeyes put the off-field distractions behind them and win their seventh straight Big Ten Title? Can Boise State burst into the national title game?
From the Southeastern Conference to the Sun Belt Conference, it's time to predict the champions of each conference.
Sun Belt Conference: Troy Trojans
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The Sun Belt Conference is probably the weakest of the 11 FBS conferences, but the Troy Trojans seem to be the best of the bunch in the Sun Belt.
The Trojans found their quarterback for the next three years in Corey Robinson, who came on the scene with an impressive showing his freshman year, throwing for over 3,700 yards with 28 touchdowns.
The Trojans will also return starting running back Shawn Southward, who rushed for over 800 yards last year and should be able to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark this year.
Troy has lost its most explosive offensive weapon, Jerrel Jernigan, who was drafted in the third round of the 2011 NFL draft, but the Trojans have young talent that can fill in with Eric Thomas and Corey Johnson.
The Trojan defense will be returning nearly all of its starters, including Jonathan Massaquoi, who recorded 13.5 sacks last year with 20.5 tackles for loss.
Troy will finish the season with a 6-2 mark in conference play, which will be good enough for it to claim the Sun Belt title.
Western Athletic Conference: Nevada Wolf Pack
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The University of Nevada-Reno put together a stellar year in 2010, finishing with 13 wins to only one loss, topped off with a 20-13 bowl win over Boston College.
Despite losing star quarterback Colin Kaepernick and star running back Vai Taua, I still think Nevada will have a good shot in the WAC.
Senior quarterback Tyler Lantrip will be in line to fill in for Kaepernick, while senior running back Lampford Mark will take the place of Taua.
With two seniors filling holes left in key positions, this should make the transition easier for the Nevada Wolf Pack.
Senior wideout Rishard Matthews (870 yards, five touchdowns in 2010) should become an early favorite target of Lantrip.
The non-conference schedule for the Wolf Pack is as hard as any team's in the country with road games against Oregon, Texas Tech and Boise State. The good news is that all but two of their conference games are at home, so Nevada should be able to reign superior in the WAC with a final conference record of 5-2.
Mid-American Conference: Northern Illinois Huskies
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The Mid-American Conference is another pretty weak FBS conference, to say the least, making it difficult to predict a winner.
The Northern Illinois Huskies stand out from the pack. They finished with an 11-3 mark in 2010, and with so many returning starters, they are the favorites in the MAC.
Chandler Harnish put together a nice junior season at quarterback: 2,500 yards passing, 800 yards rushing and 28 total touchdowns.
Harnish has improved greatly each year, so 2011 could be a big year for the senior quarterback.
The Huskies will need to find a replacement for feature running back Chad Spann, who rushed for over 1,300 yards in 2010. James Hopkins looks to be the man for the job, having rushing for over 360 yards on only 38 carries—good for almost a 10 yard per carry average.
The Huskies will return their trio of receivers—Willie Clark, Nathan Palmer and Martel Moore—who each amassed over 500 yards of receiving last year.
With an offense that should be far superior to any other in the MAC, the Huskies should be able to outscore any team they face in conference play.
The Northern Illinois Huskies went undefeated in the MAC last year, and with Chandler Harnish being the best quarterback playing in the conference, I think they will match that feat again.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Mountain West Conference: Boise State Broncos
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The Mountain West took a hit this year with the departures of Utah and BYU, but the conference still has two very good teams in Texas Christian University and Boise State University.
If one thing is clear, it's that one of those two teams will win the Mountain West.
I'm going to put my money on Boise State simply because of Heisman hopeful Kellen Moore.
Moore has had quite the career for the Broncos: 10,687 yards passing and 99 touchdowns. Most impressive is that Moore has only thrown 19 interceptions to those 99 touchdowns.
Kellen Moore has lost his two favorite targets, Titus Young and Austin Pettis, but in an offensive scheme like Boise State's and with a quarterback as good as Moore, new receivers will step up.
With the loss of its two top receivers, Boise State could also elect to run the ball more with Doug Martin. Martin gets little credit in the Broncos' successes, but he rushed for over 1,200 yards last year and found the end zone 12 times, so he could get more carries this season.
By far the biggest challenge in conference play for Boise State will come when it faces TCU in mid November.
I have Boise State running the table this year in conference play, and if it beats Georgia in its regular season opener, it would be tough to keep it out of the national title game.
Conference USA: University of Central Florida Knights
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The University of Central Florida seemed at times to be the best team in the state of Florida last year, believe it or not.
The Knights finished the season with an 11-3 record, capping it off with the school's first bowl victory ever coming against the University of Georgia.
The Knights finished conference play at 7-1, with their only loss coming against Southern Miss.
Leading the UCF offense will be true sophomore Jeffrey Godfrey. Godfrey had an impressive freshman campaign, throwing for over 2,000 yards and rushing for over 550 yards while scoring 22 total touchdowns.
In two of the Knights' three losses, Godfrey threw multiple interceptions. If Godfrey can limit the mistakes and show improvement as a passer in 2011, the Knights should be a tough team to beat in Conference USA.
Ronnie Weaver and Latavius Murray will form a two headed monster for the UCF rushing attack. Both are big backs that wear down opposing defenses in the late stages of the game.
Defensively for the Knights, they were statistically one of the better defenses in the nation last year. They held opponents to 17 points per game, which was good for eighth in the nation, and that defense will be tough again this year.
It's no secret how the Knights plan on winning games: playing good defense and running the ball straight at their opponents.
Two games stand out on the Knights' conference schedule—at Southern Miss and at East Carolina back to back in mid November. If UCF can just win one of those, I think it takes Conference USA.
UCF will finish the season with a conference record of 7-1 and then beat out East Carolina in the championship game.
Big East Conference: West Virginia Mountaineers
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The Big East is very similar to the ACC when it comes to predicting a winner; you can never feel confident in a specific team to run the table.
The Big East was an absolute mess last year, and I don't know if it will be any better this year.
The Connecticut Huskies found their way into a BCS bowl last year despite four regular season losses. They were outmatched from start to finish against the Oklahoma Sooners, losing 48-20.
I like the West Virgina Mountaineers to claim the Big East title in 2011.
They return three starting receivers in Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Brad Starks, but most importantly welcome back their star quarterback Geno Smith.
Smith had a prolific year for the Mountaineers last year—2,763 yards passing, 24 touchdowns and 216 yards rushing—and he should be able to be the difference maker in leading the Mountaineers to a Big East title.
West Virginia will need to find a replacement at running back for Noel Devine, who accounted for 936 yards on the ground last year. Shawne Alston looks like the most likely replacement for Devine, and at 5'11", 220 pounds, Alston is built to carry the running load.
The Mountaineers face the Connecticut Huskies at home October 8th and travel to Cincinnati November 12th, if they can get past those two games, they should claim the Big East title with a conference record of 6-1.
Atlantic Coast Conference: Virginia Tech Hokies
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The ACC has been one of the toughest conferences to predict the past few years. Nearly every team seems to be a major disappointment at some point in the year.
By looking at the schedules on paper, the Virgina Tech Hokies seem to have the clear edge and would be my pick to be crowned league champions.
The Hokies will be at home for their two biggest challenges of the year against Miami and Clemson. They do travel to Georgia Tech to take on the Yellow Jackets, which will be by far their toughest road test of the year.
Quarterback Logan Thomas, who will fill in for the departed Tyrod Taylor, will have the first four weeks to get a rhythm established within the offense, as the Hokies' non-conference schedule is laughable. With Thomas gaining some momentum heading into conference play, the Hokie offense should be good to go following two weeks against Clemson and Miami.
The Hokies should once again have a solid running attack led by sophomore David Wilson, who accounted for over 600 yards on 113 carries while splitting carries with star running back Ryan Williams.
The Hokie defense will be its usual dominant self, let by All-American CB Jayron Hosley.
The Hokies will be 7-1 heading into the ACC Championship Game, where I think they will face Florida State and should beat the Seminoles to win the ACC once again this year.
Pac-12 Conference: Oregon Ducks
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The Oregon Ducks are another team that is under investigation by the NCAA for possible recruiting violations, but either way, they will be a very scary team when they take the field in September.
The Ducks return Heisman hopeful LaMichael James and star quarterback Darron Thomas, who could also be a Heisman finalist by season's end.
The Ducks will also have one of the best return men in the country in Cliff Harris and should once again have a solid but not great defense.
Breaking down their schedule, only two games stand out to me: opening week against LSU and November 12th at Stanford. These two games will by far be the biggest tests of the year for the Ducks.
LSU is obviously a non-conference game, so win or lose, it won't affect their Pac-12 standings, but these Ducks have their sights set on more then a conference championship.
As for the showdown with Andrew Luck and the Cardinals, the Oregon Ducks are just a more balanced team with more weapons on both sides of the ball. Luck will keep the Cardinals in the game, but James and Thomas will prove to be to much for Stanford and the entire Pac-12.
The Oregon Ducks will win the Pac-12 championship with general ease and could find themselves in the national title game for the second straight year.
Final conference record: 9-0.
Big Ten Conference: Ohio State Buckeyes
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With the Ohio State University being at the forefront for an ongoing NCAA investigation involving free tattoos for autographed memorabilia, the Ohio State football team will go one of two directions this year: thrive in the face of adversity or go down in flames.
I lean on the side of the Buckeyes coming closer together and using all of the distractions as a motivational tool to win games.
"Us against the wold" pretty much sums up these Buckeyes.
Even with the loss of Terrelle Pryor for the season and four other starters for the first five games, this Ohio State team is still going to be good whether people like it or not.
The Buckeyes have a stable full of great running backs with Jaamal Berry, Roderick Smith, Jordan Hall, Dan Herron and Carlos Hyde. I think Berry and Smith will prove to be the best running back duo in the Big Ten.
The receivers will be one of the fastest groups the Buckeyes have had since the days of Santonio Holmes, Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez. Corey Brown, DeVier Posey and James Jackson have the speed to house the ball whenever they touch it. Throw in 6'5" T.Y. Williams, and the Buckeyes have many options through the air.
The quarterback position is where most questions will come surrounding the Buckeyes.
I look for freshman Braxton Miller to get the job and surprise many during his first year on campus in leading the Buckeyes. Miller is a dual-threat quarterback who passed for over 2,000 yards and rushed for over 600 yards in leading Wayne High School to the Ohio state championship game.
Braxton Miller has all the ability and potential to lead the Buckeyes from opening week on. If the Buckeyes were to go with senior Joe Bauserman over Miller, I would change my pick to the Wisconsin Badgers to take the Big Ten.
Defensively Ohio State will be its usual dominant self and should keep the team close in every game.
Ohio State has a favorable conference schedule with its toughest games being at Nebraska and at home against Wisconsin.
I have Ohio State finishing 7-1 in the Big Ten and avenging its Week 6 loss to Nebraska in the first-ever Big Ten title game.
Big 12 Conference: Oklahoma Sooners
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The Oklahoma Sooners are coming off a beatdown of Big East champion Connecticut in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl, and they should be able to carry that momentum into the start of the 2011 season.
The Big 12 is the easiest conference to predict, in my opinion. With Texas not being its usual self and Nebraska now in the Big Ten, the Sooners should be able to breeze through the Big 12 untouched.
The Oklahoma Sooners return key players at the skill positions and pretty much everywhere else, with 18 total starters returning from last year.
Landry Jones threw for over 3,700 yards during his sophomore season while tossing 38 touchdown passes as well. Jones should put up huge numbers again this year with starting wideout Ryan Broyles (1,600 yards, 14 touchdowns) returning and an experienced offensive line protecting him.
The Sooner defense will be led by linebacker Travis Lewis, who had 109 tackles last year and three interceptions last year, and they return players all over the defense, which should make them even better than they were last season.
The biggest question for the Sooners will be who will fill the hole left at running back with the departure of DeMarco Murray, but with a passing attack as good as the Sooners are going to have, running lanes will be there.
November 26th should be the Sooners' toughest conference game when they square off against Oklahoma State.
The reality is no conference team can match up with the Sooners on paper, so barring an upset, the Big 12 belongs to the Oklahoma Sooners.
Southeastern Conference: South Carolina Gamecocks
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The entire SEC is up for grabs this year.
Had Cam Newton decided to come back for his senior year for the Auburn Tigers, this would be an easy pick, but Newton made the right choice and entered the 2011 NFL draft, leaving the door open for the rest of the SEC.
The South Carolina Gamecocks will be my early prediction, but this is my least confident pick of all the conferences.
Let's face it: The SEC is the best conference in football, and to win it you have to be great every week, and sometimes even that is not enough.
Fortunately for South Carolina, it returns the two best offensive players in the conference in running back Marcus Lattimore and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery.
Lattimore had a prolific freshman season for the Gamecocks last year, rushing for nearly 1,200 yards with 17 touchdowns. Jeffery was just as impressive, recording nine touchdowns with over 1,500 yards of receiving.
Those two players alone should keep the Gamecocks offense rolling, but on the defensive side of the ball is where South Carolina could be exposed.
The Gamecocks will need to fill holes all over their defensive line. The only game-changer returning on defense is Devin Taylor, who recorded 7.5 sacks to go along with 11 tackles for loss.
I have to think Steve Spurrier will be able to reload his defense no matter how many players they lose, and with an explosive offense I think the Gamecocks will make it to the SEC title game and beat out Alabama for the crown.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
