MLB Draft 2011 Prospects: Fantasy Implications for the Top 1st-Round Picks
Round 1 of the 2011 MLB draft is in the books, but if your interest comes from a fantasy baseball perspective, the order of the picks isn't likely to do you too many favors in determining which players will be fantasy-relevant the soonest.
Some of it's easy. Gerrit Cole, who went first overall to the Pittsburgh Pirates, is a no-brainer. But No. 4 overall pick Dylan Bundy (Orioles) and No. 7 choice Archie Bradley (Indians), for example, are each less valuable in most dynasty leagues because of their youth/inexperience as high school pitchers.
With those guys, basically your best-case scenario is Jordan Lyles—a shiny prospect with a live arm and good control...who takes three years to reach the majors and hits some bumps in his initial tour through The Show due to inexperience. Lyles will likely be a stud, but do you want to wait that long without being guaranteed of your best-case scenario?
Bubba Starling, a high school outfielder who went fifth overall to the Royals, is even less appealing (despite his delightful name). Sure, he has tools, but look no further than Donovan Tate for evidence of why a minors spot on your fantasy team is better spent on a more reliable player at a more valuable/scarce position who is also likely more developmentally able to bounce back from an injury. Plus signability is a concern, and aside from the relatively quick promotion and success of an exceptionally more polished bat in Eric Hosmer, the Royals tend to be pretty slow with their position prospects.
You sense the theme by now. Basically, let's weed out most of the high schoolers and figure out which remaining players are both (1) likely to reach the majors soon and (2) pay dividends by having a shot to be among the best at their respective positions from a fantasy perspective.
We'll keep this simple and especially focus on the five players most worthy of being owned in fantasy baseball as soon as possible in your league(s)...
2011 MLB Draft Results
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First, let's run through the full list of picks from the first round of this year's MLB draft.
All high schoolers just say "HS" on their rows to keep it simple. For better or worse, this was a pretty youth-heavy first day.
There are definite exceptions to the rule with drafting high schoolers in fantasy baseball (Bryce Harper, of course), and a guy like Dylan Bundy should definitely prove worthy of ownership in a healthily deep league, but it's good to view that youth as a two-fold detriment: (1) they are less proven/polished, as the college ranks are generally like High-A ball, and (2) it'll likely take longer before they find their way to the big leagues.
First Round
1 | Gerrit Cole | Pittsburgh Pirates | RHP | UCLA |
2 | Danny Hultzen | Seattle Mariners | LHP | Virginia |
3 | Trevor Bauer | Arizona Diamondbacks | RHP | UCLA |
4 | Dylan Bundy | Baltimore Orioles | RHP | HS |
5 | Bubba Starling | Kansas City Royals | OF | HS |
6 | Anthony Rendon | Washington Nationals | 3B/DH | Rice |
7 | Archie Bradley | Arizona Diamondbacks | RHP | HS |
8 | Francisco Lindor | Cleveland Indians | SS | HS |
9 | Javier Baez | Chicago Cubs | SS | HS |
10 | Cory Spangenberg | San Diego Padres | 2B | HS |
11 | George Springer | Houston Astros | OF | Connecticut |
12 | Taylor Jungmann | Milwaukee Brewers | RHP | Texas |
13 | Brandon Nimmo | New York Mets | OF | HS |
14 | Jose Fernandez | Florida Marlins | RHP | HS |
15 | Jed Bradley | Milwaukee Brewers | LHP | Georgia Tech |
16 | Chris Reed | Los Angeles Dodgers | LHP | Stanford |
17 | C. J. Cron | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | 1B | Utah |
18 | Sonny Gray | Oakland Athletics | RHP | Vanderbilt |
19 | Matt Barnes | Boston Red Sox | RHP | Connecticut |
20 | Tyler Anderson | Colorado Rockies | LHP | Oregon |
21 | Tyler Beede | Toronto Blue Jays | RHP | HS |
22 | Kolten Wong | St. Louis Cardinals | 2B | Hawaii |
23 | Alex Meyer | Washington Nationals | RHP | Kentucky |
24 | Taylor Guerrieri | Tampa Bay Rays | RHP | HS |
25 | Joe Ross | San Diego Padres | RHP | HS |
26 | Blake Swihart | Boston Red Sox | C | HS |
27 | Robert Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds | RHP | HS |
28 | Sean Gilmartin | Atlanta Braves | LHP | Florida State |
29 | Joe Panik | San Francisco Giants | SS | St. John's (NY) |
30 | Levi Michael | Minnesota Twins | SS | North Carolina |
31 | Mikie Mahtook | Tampa Bay Rays | OF | LSU |
32 | Jake Hager | Tampa Bay Rays | SS | HS |
33 | Kevin Matthews | Texas Rangers | LHP | HS |
Supplemental First Round
34 | Brian Goodwin | Washington Nationals | CF | Miami Dade College |
35 | Jacob Anderson | Toronto Blue Jays | OF | HS |
36 | Henry Owens | Boston Red Sox | P | HS |
37 | Zack Cone | Texas Rangers | CF | University of Georgia |
38 | Brandon Marin | Tampa Bay Rays | SS | HS |
39 | Larry Greene | Philadelphia Phillies | OF | HS |
40 | Jackie Bradley, Jr. | Boston Red Sox | OF | University of South Carolina |
41 | Tyler Goeddel | Tampa Bay Rays | 3B | HS |
42 | Jeff Ames | Tampa Bay Rays | RHP | Lower Colombia College |
43 | Andrew Chafin | Arizona Diamondbacks | LHP | Kent State |
44 | Micheal Fulmer | New York Mets | RHP | HS |
45 | Trevor Story | Colorado Rockies | SS | HS |
46 | Joe Masgrove | Toronto Blue Jays | RHP | HS |
47 | Keenyn Walker | Chicago White Sox | OF | HS |
48 | Micheal Kelly | San Diego Padres | RHP | HS |
49 | Kyle Crick | San Francisco Giants | RHP | HS |
50 | Travis Harrison | Minnesota Twins | 3B | HS |
51 | Dante Bichette, Jr. | New York Yankees | OF | HS |
52 | Blake Snell | Tampa Bay Rays | OF | HS |
53 | Dwight Smith | Toronto Blue Jays | OF | HS |
54 | Brett Austin | San Diego Padres | C | HS |
55 | Hudson Boyd | Minnesota Twins | RHP | HS |
56 | Kes Carter | Tampa Bay Rays | OF | Western Kentucky |
57 | Kevin Comer | Toronto Blue Jays | RHP | HS |
58 | Jace Peterson | San Diego Padres | SS | McNeese State |
59 | Grayson Garvin | Tampa Bay Rays | LHP | Vanderbilt University |
60 | James Harris | Tampa Bay Rays | OF | HS |
Honorable Mentions
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Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians
He's a young'un, and Lindor still doesn't quite qualify in the top five, but I like this pick for the Indians, and I think Lindor is likely to reach the majors pretty quickly for his young age and bump Asdrubal Cabrera (pictured) over to second base by 2014.
Lindor should pan out to be a better fantasy shortstop than Elvis Andrus, able to hit for a higher average and more power. He's obviously not as likely to smell Andrus' Gold Glove-caliber skills, but that doesn't matter too much for fantasy.
Some other honorable mentions worth extra attention in fantasy baseball:
Matt Barnes, RHP, Red Sox
George Springer, OF, Astros
Jed Bradley, LHP, Brewers
Levi Michael, SS, Twins
Taylor Jungman, RHP, Brewers
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Rays
Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks
Matt Purke, RHP, Undrafted (so far...injury concerns hurt his stock)
Blake Swihart, C, Red Sox
Alex Meyer, RHP, Nationals
5. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles
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Remember what I said about high schoolers? Sometimes you have to set it aside a bit if the player looks like he'll seize strong value, especially if you think you might be inclined to trade your draftee at some point.
Their repertoires are a bit different, but I tend to think of Shelby Miller (pictured) when I look at Dylan Bundy. There are reports of Bundy hitting 100 mph, and you simply don't read a lot of downsides about him besides signability and inexperience.
Miller, if you recall, was the 19th overall pick in 2009. He was just promoted by the Cardinals to Double-A after striking out 81 batters in 53 innings at High-A Palm Beach and could make the St. Louis rotation fearsome if he, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia can all be active at the same time under pitching coach Dave Duncan.
Being 18 and in the Orioles system (which is great but also displaying a bit of a logjam, not to mention feeding an AL East team) does not help him, but Bundy seems like the kind of prospect who will generate all kinds of buzz and trade interest as early as this time next year.
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4. Danny Hultzen, SP, Mariners
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I may be oversimplifying things, but this pick felt like the Mariners were looking ahead for a replacement in the rotation for the inevitable next injury that befalls Erik Bedard (pictured, left).
It makes sense for the Mariners to covet a lefty starter here to complement Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda. (If they weren't feeling Anthony Rendon or the need for a third baseman or bat.) Hultzen won't blow people away, and he's a tad underwhelming for a No. 2 overall pick, but his fantasy value will be greatly aided if he stays with the club and pitches at Safeco Field. It's been pretty friendly to Pineda, Hernandez and Bedard so far this season, not to mention Jason Vargas and Doug Fister.
Considering that depth and some likely work on Hultzen's mechanics, the Mariners aren't likely to rush their new lefty, but he's already fairly close to 22 years old and probably doesn't need a ton of development time.
In reality, Hultzen is not likely to ever reach Bedard's level of dominance, and he's a different pitcher who uses a changeup and slider (Bedard's more of a curveball guy, hence his myriad injuries), but the newest Mariner can become a No. 2/3 starter as a deceptive lefty with a solid fastball. His control is good, too, as he walked just 17 batters at Virginia this season against 148 strikeouts in 103.1 innings.
3. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
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Really, Rendon is good enough to be No. 1 on this list, but I think there is too much of a premium on high-end arms in good fantasy baseball leagues to choose a corner infielder over a potential ace.
That said, third base has become a shallower position over the past few years, and Rendon has a good chance of being a similar-but-better-in-every-way hitter than Jays shortstop Yunel Escobar due to his advanced approach and solid tools. He's also got Ryan Zimmerman (pictured) ahead of him at the hot corner, though—a problem the Nationals will probably be happy to solve if Rendon knocks on the door too hard.
In fact, that could represent a boon to Rendon's fantasy value, as he might get a shot at a middle infield position. For now, though, we have to assume that Rendon will stick at third.
And as a third baseman, Rendon should be pretty good. He's not that fast, and his power is a bit of a concern, as fellow B/R writer Stephen Meyer noted that "his power production dropped all the way from 26 home runs and 85 RBI as a sophomore to just six and 37 as a junior," but he's got the kind of hitting ability to get on base at a .400-plus clip. Don't overlook him.
2. Trevor Bauer, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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I was tempted to pick Trevor Bauer ahead of Gerrit Cole to shake things up, as I do like his chances of superseding Tyler Skaggs as the Diamondbacks' top pitching prospect in short order, and God knows Arizona has room in its rotation.
In some ways I like Bauer's situation better than Cole's, and you can't go wrong with either UCLA teammate, but Cole is more of the conventional/safe pick to be a good starter in the major leagues due to Bauer's height (6'1").
That said, Bauer looks like he could develop into a Tim Lincecum (pictured), and there are reports that Bauer has even modeled his mechanics after the original Big-Time Timmy-Jim.
If you want more quantitative proof, Bauer went 13-2 with a sparkling 1.25 ERA this year for UCLA. Oh, and he posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 203 to 36 in 136.2 innings.
1. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh
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Yeah, yeah—really creative of me to call the No. 1 overall pick the top pick in a fantasy baseball league as well, but it's usually pretty tough to argue with top MLB draft picks these days (Tim Beckham notwithstanding).
But, I mean, this guy has several pictures in the Getty image database. He must be good, right?
The Pirates have done a pretty good job turning other teams' trash into buried treasure lately, particularly with Charlie Morton and James McDonald and possibly with Brandon Wood, so Pittsburgh is feeling a bit less like a barren wasteland. Morton is a pretty different pitcher than Gerrit Cole, but the Pirates' ability to work on Morton's mechanics and harness his great talent shows some added hope that Cole won't be mishandled.
I'm a bit leery of this pick over Bauer nonetheless because I do think Bauer is a bit more polished and likely to hit the majors first, but Cole is a beast and should immediately be considered the Pirates' top prospect, just ahead of fellow standout righty Jameson Taillon due to scouting reports like this one from MLB.com:
"Cole looks and throws like a future ace, with three plus power pitches. His fastball is 92-99 mph and sits comfortably at 95-96 deep into starts. His hard slider comes in at 88-90 mph, and even his changeup is 88-90 mph.
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While Cole's numbers aren't as eye-popping as Bauer's, his 119-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 114.1 innings this season is a great sign. Plus you've got to love a guy who turned down the Yankees after being drafted by Brian Cashman in the first round of the 2008 draft.
Ultimately, Cole is the best pick simply because, all similarly valuable players being considered, he should hold the most trade value, and trade value of prospects cannot be underestimated in fantasy baseball if you're looking to win a championship.
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