UFC 131: 5 Reasons Junior Dos Santos Should Easily Defeat Shane Carwin

With The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale now in the books, fans can salivate for a week in anticipation of the upcoming heavyweight duel between Junior dos Santos and Shane Carwin.

The bout will not only decide who is next to challenge champion Cain Velasquez, it will outline the clear number two heavyweight under contract with the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

Interestingly enough, both dos Santos and Carwin possess strikingly (pun intended) similar skill-sets. That however, will not change the fact that Junior dos Santos is poised to turn Shane Carwin into another piece of an already lengthy highlight reel.

To argue my point, I bring you five reasons Junior dos Santos not only defeats, but likely stops Shane Carwin within fifteen minutes.

5. Agility

Shane Carwin is a beast of a man who’s at times had to battle the scales just in order to meet the heavyweight 265-pound weight limit.

With his size comes unbelievable power, and Shane has proven time and again very capable of turning that power into effective aggression.

Against dos Santos however, Shane’s agility and overall cage mobility will appear stiff and slow.

Dos Santos navigates the cage with the agility and fluidity of a middleweight; against the division’s more nimble competitors the Brazilian may not necessarily possess the advantage; against the lumbering Carwin, agility will be a major factor in the fight.

4. Chin

While Shane Carwin has proven capable of speedy recovery, his chin has looked the more susceptible of these two combatants.

Junior is definitely human, and can be hurt if the perfect punch lands, but we really haven’t seen “Cigano” affected by a strike inside the UFC.

Gabriel Gonzaga on the other hand was able to put Carwin in big trouble with punches when they met at UFC 96, and that’s all this writer needs to see to know that the advantage in the beard department goes to dos Santos, who, up until this point, has looked nearly invincible inside the Octagon.

3. Momentum

The momentum dos Santos brings to this contest is practically unheard of within the UFC’s heavyweight ranks.

Since making his promotional debut at UFC 90, dos Santos has toppled six foes, stopping all opponents (including Gabriel Gonzaga, Fabricio Werdum, and Mirko Filipovic) save for Roy Nelson.

Amazingly, the case can be made that dos Santos hasn’t even come close to losing a single round.

Shane Carwin, in contrast will enter this bout looking to rebound from his first professional loss; a second round submission defeat to former champion Brock Lesnar.

While suffering a single loss to a current champion isn’t likely to ruffle Carwin’s feathers, the fashion in which he was disposed of should. After an aggressive first round that saw Carwin nearly finish Lesnar, Shane completely melted in the second frame of the fight.

What should weigh heavily on Shane’s mind is round two, and how his body responds to treading fairly foreign territory. Entering the cage to collide with Junior dos Santos after suffering a very revealing defeat isn’t the ideal scenario.

Junior’s got the momentum on his side, no debate.

2. Technique

Shane Carwin may hit like a mac truck, but he’s still a bit robotic in his technique, and his abilities outside of power punching are unproven. He’s stuffed a takedown or two, but he’s also been taken down and finished.

We have no idea of how efficient Carwin’s overall game is, and that comes in part due to his ability to finish foes in quick fashion without needing to rely on much of anything other than his fists.

Carwin’s wrestling appears solid, but if pushed in directions unexplored, can he keep up with the seemingly versatile dos Santos, who has exhibited superb defensive wrestling and a much deeper arsenal of strikes?

Make no mistake, Junior dos Santos’ grappling pedigree has yet to be fully displayed inside the octagon. He’s been forced to the canvas outside of the promotion, and proven capable on the ground, but in the last three years we haven’t seen much grappling from Junior.

With Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira controlling Junior’s jiu-jitsu regimen, it’s likely this fistic wonder packs a savvy submission game; which we may finally see should Shane land some significant punches Saturday night.

1. Experience

Upon first glance, these two appear neck-and-neck in the experience department. Upon closer inspection, you’ll note a staggering difference in the level of opposition these two men have bested in their careers.

Both men sport professional records of 12-1. The difference comes in the breakdown: Shane Carwin has fought 14 rounds, dos Santos has fought 17 rounds; Carwin has managed to out-battle the likes of Frank Mir and Gabriel Gonzaga, while dos Santos has also beaten Gonzaga, current top five ranked heavyweight Fabricio Werdum, former Pride Fighting Championships open-weight champion Mirko “Crocop” Filipovic, experienced kickboxer Gilbert Yvel, and “The Ultimate Fighter” season 10 winner, Roy Nelson.

Carwin hasn’t exactly experienced a walk in the park, but he hasn’t consistently beaten the level of opposition that dos Santos has, which may prove pivotal come June 11th.