Realistic Expectations for Every 2nd-Year QB in 2026 NFL Season

The quarterback position was far from the strength of the 2025 NFL draft class, but the 13 signal-callers taken during the event—especially those selected over the first two days—have had a surprising amount of early-career success.

Several of these promising prospects emerged as starters, while others settled into depth or practice squad roles and rarely, if ever, saw the field. Regardless of how their first season went, Year 2 will be pivotal for each of these passers. All will be looking to improve, but some will inevitably suffer a dreaded sophomore slump and others will put their stamp on the league.

With that in mind, let's review last year's quarterback class and make some realistic predictions on how each member will fare during the upcoming 2026 NFL season.

QB3s, Practice Squad Members and Cut Candidates

AP Photo/Ben VanHouten

Jalen Milroe, Seattle Seahawks

Milroe was selected as both a developmental project and insurance option in case Seattle's splashy Sam Darnold acquisition didn't work out.

With Darnold leading the team to a Super Bowl victory and cementing his status as Seattle's starter for the foreseeable future, Milroe is set to remain a backup in 2026.

While Milroe only saw three offensive snaps as a rookie, there could be a few more plays for the dynamic dual threat signal-caller going forward—even if he settles into a third-string role behind veteran Drew Lock.

Milroe was glued to the bench after fumbling on one of his rare appearances early last season, but the coaching staff could give him another chance, attempting to catch defenses off guard by sporadically utilizing the sophomore in certain packages this year.

Realistic Expectation: QB3 with occasional snaps in specific packages.

Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns

Gabriel botched a chance to prove himself after Joe Flacco was traded early in the 2025 season.

The third-round rookie failed to spark Cleveland's offense in his six starts, going just 1-5 while completing fewer than 60 percent of his throws for 937 yards and seven touchdowns with two interceptions and 19 sacks.

It's unlikely Gabriel gets another shot following that disappointing showing. The Browns found far more success after shifting to Shedeur Sanders and have Deshaun Watson back in the mix this season, meaning Gabriel will have to settle for third-string duties to open 2026.

Realistic Expectation: QB3, only moving to QB2 if Watson or Sanders misses time.

Will Howard, Pittsburgh Steelers

Any chance Howard had at earning a starting job evaporated when Aaron Rodgers decided to return for another run with the Steelers.

Rodgers' decision instantly relegated Howard to a depth option in what is arguably the league's most crowded quarterbacks room.

Howard will battle against rookie Drew Allar and longtime veteran Mason Rudolph for roles behind the future Hall of Famer.

It's possible the Steelers trade Rudolph to clear the logjam, but there's also a chance they wind up keeping four signal-callers on the roster.

Howard is most likely to settle in as the QB3, only seeing action if Rudolph gets dealt and Rodgers misses time.

Realistic Expectation: QB3 unless team splits with Rudolph.

Kyle McCord, Green Bay Packers

McCord never panned out for a Philadelphia Eagles team that selected him in the sixth round of the 2025 draft. He spent his entire rookie season on the practice squad before being scooped up by the Packers in January.

While Green Bay conceivably has a wide-open competition for the QB2 role following Malik Willis' departure, McCord isn't likely to beat out veteran Tyrod Taylor or undrafted free agent Kyron Drones.

Taylor is a solid, proven depth option who has the inside track to be the direct backup for Jordan Love, while Drones looks to be a better fit as a dynamic, versatile practice squad weapon.

Realistic Expectation: Cut.

Graham Mertz, Houston Texans

The Houston Texans may have a quarterback conundrum on their hands following last year's playoff calamity, but even C.J. Stroud's immense struggles won't result in Mertz getting meaningful playing time as a sophomore.

Mertz was the third-stringer behind Stroud and Davis Mills last year and is likely to remain in the same position this season.

The sophomore's best-case scenario would involve a Mills trade opening the door for him to take over the QB2 spot. It will take a truly fantastic showing from Mertz during training camp to get Houston's brass comfortable enough to deal away an experienced backup.

Realistic Expectation: QB3, slotting up to QB2 if Mills gets traded.

Cam Miller, Miami Dolphins

Like McCord, Miller is another late-round quarterback who spent his rookie season on a practice squad before being plucked away by another franchise earlier this year.

During his short stint with the Las Vegas Raiders, Miller never lived up to the endorsement that minority owner Tom Brady provided during the 2025 draft.

Miller now has his work cut out attempting to make Miami's roster. The Dolphins may have moved on from Tua Tagovailoa, but they picked up Malik Willis in free agency and signed undrafted rookie Mark Gronowski to compete along with incumbent Quinn.

There's simply too much competition for the inexperienced Miller to be anything more than a practice squad option.

Realistic Expectation: Practice squad member.

Kurtis Rourke, San Francisco 49ers

With Brock Purdy starting and Mac Jones backing him up, the Niners have a rock-solid quarterback situation. This could change quickly, however, as Jones is a legitimate trade candidate following his stunning performance repping Purdy last year.

Jones could be a potential starter for several QB-needy clubs right now and will become even an more popular trade target should a team lose their QB1 to injury in the coming months.

As it stands, Rourke would need to truly shine in training camp for San Francisco to pull the trigger on a Jones trade. Purdy is a quality starter, but he's missed time in all four of his professional seasons.

These injury woes make it imperative that the Niners have a backup they can trust on the roster, meaning the QB3 job is by far the most realistic outcome for Rourke in 2026.

Realistic Expectation: QB3, slotting up to QB2 if Jones is dealt.

QB2s

AP Photo/Matt Durisko

Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns

Sanders may have been the best of Cleveland's quarterback options last season, but his status as the club's starting signal-caller is far from secure.

Despite Sanders going 3-4 in his seven starts and even earning a Pro Bowl nod as a rookie, Deshaun Watson will likely get the first crack at running new head coach Todd Monken's offense.

Cleveland's quarterback competition became a borderline circus during training camp last year and is already starting to look similar in 2026.

While Sanders is a popular choice among fans, Watson is still playing out his record-setting contract and seems healthy after numerous injury-plagued campaigns.

The two will split first-team reps until a winner emerges, but Watson is the more gifted passer and most likely to come out ahead as long as he can stay on the field.

Realistic Expectation: QB2 barring an injury or ineffective stretch from Watson.

Riley Leonard, Indianapolis Colts

In the wake of Daniel Jones' season-ending Achilles tear, Anthony Richardson's injuries and performance woes and Philip Rivers' inability to spur the squad to victory, the Colts gave Leonard a surprise starting nod for the 2025 finale.

Leonard showed promise in that contest, completing 21 of his 34 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns while adding another score on the ground. That performance should help him cinch up the QB2 job this season, especially with journeyman backup Easton Stick being the Colts' lone offseason quarterback addition.

Given the strong potential that Richardson gets traded before the campaign kicks off, Leonard is the top candidate to back Jones up.

Realistic Expectation: Firm QB2 behind Jones.

Quinn Ewers, Miami Dolphins

Ewers outperformed the modest expectations of a late seventh‑round QB last year, logging three late‑season starts for Miami, including one that came after the team benched Tua Tagovailoa.

While the 23-year-old showed some promise in those contests, the Dolphins still opted to splurge on Malik Willis in free agency.

Considering the team's hefty investment into Willis, Ewers will have to settle for opening the season on the bench again.

Don't be surprised to see him get some run during the latter portion of the season—especially if Willis doesn't live up to his new contract and the Dolphins fade out of playoff contention.

Realistic Expectation: QB2 with high potential to get another chance to start.

Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Peter Joneleit

The New Orleans Saints drafted Tyler Shough with the expectations that the second-round rookie would spend a season developing behind Derek Carr.

Those plans changed when the veteran signal-caller announced a surprise retirement in May, leaving head coach Kellen Moore scrambling to sort out the mess under center.

While Shough didn't win the QB1 role in training camp, the team's struggles under Spencer Rattler led Moore to make a switch midway through the campaign. After a rocky start, Shough found his footing and helped guide New Orleans to four wins in its last five games.

During those contests, Shough looked poised and confident. He moved the ball well and appeared comfortable executing the team's offense, ultimately finishing his rookie season with a respectable 67.6 percent completion rate, 2,384 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. Shough initially struggled with giveaways—losing two fumbles and getting picked off six times altogether—but settled in and turned the ball over just once across the final four games of the campaign.

New Orleans has every reason to believe it found its franchise quarterback following that performance. The team went into the offseason with a plan to build around Shough and executed it well, using a series of draft picks to augment the young passer's weaponry—including landing standout receiver prospect Jordyn Tyson at No. 8 overall—and signed veteran guard David Edwards to reinforce the offensive trenches.

With Shough getting a full training camp to prepare as the starter and key free-agent pickup Travis Etienne Jr. ready to provide a spark in the backfield, the Saints should boast a much more potent and well-rounded offense this year.

If all goes to plan, Shough will be able to guide this unit—which ranked No. 28 in scoring and No. 23 in total offense last year—into the top half of the league and establish himself as one of the game's up-and-coming stars.

Realistic Expectation: Top-16 QB

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Jaxson Dart is on the cusp of stardom following a transformative offseason in the Big Apple.

The New York Giants made a slew of changes with the goal of breaking through and returning to playoff contention after some lean rebuilding years, including hiring head coach John Harbaugh and onboarding a myriad of new veteran and rookie pieces.

Dart, rising superstar receiver Malik Nabers and hard-charging running back Cam Skattebo will remain the nucleus of Big Blue's offense, but the supporting cast around this triumvirate has been greatly improved.

Dart will have plenty more weapons in the passing attack after New York signed a trio of veteran receivers in Calvin Austin III, Darnell Mooney and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Promising rookie Malachi Fields is also in the mix after his surprising fall to the G-Men in Round 3 of the 2026 draft.

Dart's protection has been upgraded as well, with the most notable addition being first-rounder Francis Mauigoa. The rookie solidifies the Giants' right guard position, while a pair of free-agent signings in Lucas Patrick and Daniel Faalele—an experienced starter who followed Harbaugh from the Baltimore Ravens—provide depth and options to shuffle the deck with.

Faalele wasn't the only Raven to join Harbaugh in New York. The head coach also lured one of the league's top fullbacks in Patrick Ricard—who will plow lanes for Skattebo and keep Dart upright—and a talented pass-catching tight end in Isaiah Likely away from Charm City. These two key additions round out a new-look offense that is set to make a massive leap in Year 2 of the Dart era.

While health will be the key factor after Dart, Skattebo and Nabers all missed significant time last year, the pieces are in place for this group to join the upper echelon of NFL offenses.

If Dart can stay on the field and continues developing rapidly, he'll be in the discussion for the first of potentially many Pro Bowl appearances.

Realistic Expectation: Top-10 QB, Pro Bowler

Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans

AP Photo/Stew Milne

The Tennessee Titans may not have been the latest team to go from worst-to-first with a prized rookie quarterback leading the way, but they still saw enough from Cam Ward last year to feel confident in the No. 1 overall pick's ability to lead this franchise for the long haul.

Despite being hamstrung by a poor supporting cast and uninspiring offensive system, Ward still managed to complete nearly 60 percent of his throws for 3,169 yards and 15 touchdowns. He accomplished this despite being consistently under siege working behind a sieve-like offensive line, one that was largely responsible for the rookie taking a league-worst 55 sacks in 2025.

Tennessee's receiving corps left much to be desired last year, an issue that general manager Mike Borgonzi, new head coach Robert Saleh and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll prioritized fixing this offseason. Considering the pass-catching talent set to surround Ward in 2026, this goal looks to have been soundly accomplished.

The team's most noteworthy offensive addition is Carnell Tate, a dynamic, game-changing wideout who the Titans secured with the No. 4 overall pick. Tate is the ideal receiver to develop alongside Ward, offering a rare blend of size, strength, speed, toughness and hands that will make life easy for his quarterback.

The Titans also nabbed a high-volume possession receiver in Wan'Dale Robinson. Robinson is coming off his first 1,000-yard receiving campaign and has racked up a whopping 185 catches over the last two seasons combined, making for an ideal target in short-yardage and third-down situations.

These new wideouts, along with veteran offensive line additions Austin Schlottman and Cordell Volson, will assist Ward in making a huge leap during his pivotal sophomore season. If the signal-caller takes to Daboll's system and his teammates live up to the hype, there should be little doubt Ward will cement himself as a franchise QB in 2026.

Realistic Expectation: Top-12 QB