College Football 2011: Predicting Wins/Losses for Every Rookie Coach
Nearly 18 percent of FBS programs will feature a new head coach on the sidelines in 2011. The total number of new leaders, 21, represents a one-coach decline from last year’s turnover mark of 22.
These new gridiron bosses walk into 21 unique situations, and though their performance will no doubt be ranked on wins and losses, they each will begin their work at different starting points.
Some will have their personnel cupboards full and have the pressure of taking over a team that was successful last season equaling high expectations and offering very little grace time for transition.
Others will take over teams that have been beleaguered with losing records or disappointments hoping their new coaching gem can finally revive them and bring glory to the glory-less; these guys obviously have more time to work with.
Regardless of the circumstances, winning is the end goal in coaching, and when we rank their performance at the end of the 2011 campaign, ultimately the evaluation will be highlighted by wins and losses.
And so, in the spirit of victory as the proper ambition of major college football, the following slideshow will attempt to pinpoint the win/loss record for every new head coach in the FBS this coming season.
Hugh Freeze, Arkansas State
1 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
Hugh Freeze was Michael Oher’s high school coach (of The Blind Side) and takes over at Arkansas State after serving one season as their offensive coordinator.
Though Freeze led NAIA Lambuth University to a 20-5 record from 2008-09 his only FBS coaching experience comes from a two-year stint (2006-07) as the tight ends coach at Ole Miss.
Freeze takes over at Arkansas State for Steve Roberts who went 45-63 in nine seasons.
The Redwolves return 15 starters from a team that went 4-8 in 2010 and their biggest concerns are at offensive line and defensively were they ranked No. 91 in scoring last season.
The offensive skill positions will only carry Freeze’s first ASU team so far and big improvements seem more distant than this season.
Predicted First Year Record: 4-8
Pete Lembo, Ball State
2 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 79-36
Pete Lembo takes over at Ball State for Stan Parrish, who managed only six total wins in his three-year tenure as the Cardinals head coach.
Lembo most recently served as the head man at FCS Elon where he went 35-22 over five seasons; prior to that job he led FCS Lehigh to a 44-14 mark (that included two Patriot League crowns) from 2001-05.
Ball State returns 16 starters from last year’s team that went 4-8 and their biggest strength is defensively which is relative to an offense that ranked No. 94 in scoring and No. 106 in total yardage in 2010.
Lembo’s Cardinals may be another year away from improvement, especially with a schedule that includes Indiana, USF, Army and Oklahoma.
Predicted First Year Record: 3-9
Jon Embree, Colorado
3 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
Jon Embree played tight end at Colorado from 1983-86 and takes over as the head coach of his alma mater for Dan Hawkins who went 19-39 over five disappointing seasons.
After playing in the NFL Embree was a positional coach at Colorado from 1993-2000 before serving as an assistant head coach and offensive coach at UCLA from 2003.
Most recently Embree has been a tight ends coach in the NFL first with the Chiefs (2006-08) and then with the Redskins in 2010.
Though the Buffaloes return an impressive 17 starters from last season this is still the team that lost five consecutive midseason games and went 5-7 (though they looked better after Hawkins’ departure late in the season).
Couple this with the fact that Colorado moves to the Pac-12 and has a schedule with zero FCS opponents (non-conference games are at Hawaii, Cal, Colorado State and at Ohio State) and it’s easy to define Embree’s first campaign as “challenging.”
Predicted First Year Record: 5-7
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Paul Pasqualoni, Connecticut
4 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 141-76-1
Paul Pasqualoni played linebacker at Penn State from 1968-71 and has enjoyed a long career in coaching; his last stop was at the NFL Dallas Cowboys where he served as defensive coordinator for the 2010 season.
Pasqualoni takes over in Connecticut for Randy Edsall who went 74-70 over 12 seasons in Storrs, a run that notably ended with a share of the Big East title and a BCS bid.
No stranger to the Big East, Pasqualoni was the head man at Syracuse from 1991-2004 where he went 107-59-1 and captured four Big East titles. He suffered only one losing record in 14 seasons, his bowl record was 6-3 and the Orange were ranked in the final polls seven times during his tenure.
The Huskies return 17 starters from last season’s team (8-5 overall) and the biggest concerns are a new quarterback, running back and losses at linebacker.
The non-conference schedule makes .500 look obtainable; FCS Fordham, at Vandy, Iowa State, at Buffalo and Western Michigan.
After that the Big East slate begins which is anybody’s guess.
It is intriguing that Pasqualoni hasn’t gotten more press. He’s older (61) but his track record is impressive, and he is one of the few guys on this list who have long term proven success at the FBS level. Don’t be surprised if he gets more out of the Huskies than is expected.
Predicted First Year Record: 7-5
Will Muschamp, Florida
5 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
One of the most talked about hires for the 2011 season, Will Muschamp has the immense pressure of taking over a powerhouse program with zero head coaching experience.
Muschamp takes over for the retiring (for now) Urban Meyer, who went 65-15 in six seasons netting a 81.25 percent winning ratio which is second only in Gator history to Steve Spurrier who posted a winning percentage of 81.66.
Muschamp played safety at Georgia from 1991-94 and has made defensive stops all over college football after initially striking out in 1995 as an assistant at Auburn. Most recently he was the defensive coordinator and coach-in-waiting at Texas.
Florida returns only 13 starters in 2011, and though they are unequivocally fast and talented, they are young.
The schedule is rough even by SEC standards and includes a nasty six game stretch that begins September 17 at home against Tennessee, at Kentucky, Alabama at home, at LSU, at Auburn and then the annual showdown against Georgia.
How quickly Muschamp and company can put all the talent together into a high powered winning machine and how good of a head coach he really is are all yet to be seen, but Florida has enough talent to be in the hunt now.
Predicted First Year Record: 8-4
Kevin Wilson, Indiana
6 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
Kevin Wilson takes over in Bloomington for Bill Lynch who went 19-30 over four seasons.
Wilson, who hasn’t got the media attention of say Will Muschamp, is a well proven assistant at the highest level who has to be considered to be a bit of a hiring coup for the Hoosiers.
Wilson played offensive line for North Carolina from 1980-83 and after stops at Miami (FL) and Northwestern has been the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma since 2002.
Indiana returns 15 starters from their 2010 product that went 5-7 and the biggest concerns are at quarterback and defensively where improving on a No. 102 scoring ranking last season will be hamstringed by a lack of depth, especially in the secondary.
Kevin Wilson has all the right stuff to be very successful at Indiana, but tangible improvement may be at least one year away for the Hoosiers.
Predicted First Year Record: 5-7
Darrell Hazell, Kent State
7 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
After almost two decades of bouncing all over the college ranks Darrell Hazell became the wide receivers coach at Ohio State in 2004, a position he held until 2011 when he was named the new head coach at Kent State.
Hazell takes over in Kent, Ohio for Doug Martin who went 29-53 in seven seasons, a mark that earned him the highest winning percentage (35.36) since Glen Mason’s 12-10 run from 1986-87.
The Golden Flashes return 17 starters in 2011 which includes 10 offensive starters from a unit that ranked No. 99 in scoring and only five on the defensive side of the ball which ranked No. 10 in overall yardage allowed.
The defense will have to retool quickly to get back to their stellar form in 2010, and the offense must be prepared to improve in order to balance the scales.
Though Hazell has gobs of experience he has never been more than a positional coach at the FBS level which begs asking the question, how long will it take him to ramp up as a fully fledged gridiron chief?
Predicted First Year Record: 6-6
Mark Hudspeth, Louisiana-Lafayette
8 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 66-21
Mark Hudspeth takes over at Louisiana-Lafayette for Ricky Bustle who went 41-65 over nine seasons that never saw the Cajuns go above the .500 mark.
Hudspeth most recently served as the wide receivers coach at Mississippi State (2008-10) but previous to that he enjoyed a highly successful run as the head coach at FCS North Alabama where he posted a 66-21 record and two Gulf South crowns in seven seasons (2002-08).
Hudspeth could be the long term answer at ULL, but 2011 will be a huge challenge to even reach .500; the Ragin’ Cajuns return just 11 starters from last season; a team that ranked No. 92 in offensive scoring and No. 112 in defensive scoring.
This is a coach and a team that will make a huge mark on the Sun Belt conference in the next couple of seasons…2011 is just the beginning.
Predicted First Year Record: 4-8
Randy Edsall, Maryland
9 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 74-70
Randy Edsall takes over at Maryland after compiling a 74-70 record at UConn which included managing the successful transition of the Huskies from the FCS to the FBS in 2004. Included in the Edsall portfolio are two Big East titles, a 3-2 record in bowl games which includes last year’s loss to Oklahoma in the BCS Fiesta Bowl.
Edsall, who played QB at Syracuse from 1976-79, takes over at Maryland for longtime Terrapins coach Ralph Friedgen who compiled a 75-50 record in his 10 seasons in College Park.
Maryland returns 14 starters from a team that went 9-4 in 2010 and has many of the pieces in place to extend their success into 2011.
The Terrapins were a really good team that flew under the radar last season, but how they’ll respond to Edsall and friends in the midst of an upswing in performance is unknown.
Predicted First Year Record: 8-4
Al Golden, Miami (FL)
10 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 27-34
Another “big hire” for the 2011 season is Al Golden at Miami (FL) who will be the next new Hurricane coach to attempt to bring the once prolific program back into national prominence.
For Miami getting fully back doesn’t mean winning nine games, it means competing for the ACC title and the national championship; the Hurricanes haven’t ever won an ACC crown of any kind ( remember they crossed over from the Big East in 2004), and they haven’t won the whole enchilada since 2001.
Al Golden comes off a wildly successful five-year stint at Temple where he took one of the worst programs in the FBS to a MAC divisional title in 2009, their first bowl appearance in 30 years (also in 2009) and their first consecutive eight-plus win seasons since 1973-74.
Golden replaces Randy Shannon who went 28-22 in four seasons in Coral Gables.
The Hurricanes return 13 starters for Golden’s maiden voyage which will be made even more interesting with a schedule that includes non-conference clashes with Ohio State and Kansas State (both at home) and road trips to Maryland, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Florida State.
Predicted First Year Record: 8-4
Don Treadwell, Miami (OH)
11 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
The “cradle of coaches” welcomes its newest member in 2011 with Don Treadwell who most recently served as the offensive coordinator at Michigan State.
Treadwell is a Miami alumnus who played wide receiver from 1978-81, and his name will now forever more be added to the impressive list of Redhawk coaches that include Sid Gillman, Woody Hayes, Ara Parseghian and Bo Schembechler. It’s also interesting to note that the legendary Paul Brown played at Miami.
Treadwell has never been a head coach at any level but has held the offensive coordinator position at Youngstown State, Boston College, Ball State, Cincinnati and Michigan State.
He takes over for Michael Haywood who took a team that finished 1-11 in 2009 to a stunning 10-4 record in 2010.
The Redhawks return 18 starters in 2011 and all the pieces are in place (with the exception of a harder schedule) to repeat at MAC champions.
Treadwell is a great hire, but the pressure will be on for him to win immediately. Regardless, he may be the next great coach to emerge from Oxford, Ohio.
Predicted First Year Record: 9-3
Brady Hoke, Michigan
12 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 47-50
Ohio native Brady Hoke takes over at Michigan for Rich Rodriguez who posted a 15-22 record over three seasons, netting a 40.54 winning ratio which is the lowest mark in Wolverine history.
Hoke played linebacker at Ball State from 1977-80 which is also were he kicked off his head coaching career from 2003-08 with a record of 34-38 (including a 12-1 run in 2008).
Most recently Hoke went 13-12 over two seasons at San Diego State where he let the Aztecs to their first bowl victory in 41 years.
Notably, Hoke has posted only three winning seasons in the eight years he has served as a head coach.
Michigan returns 20 starters in 2011 but will need to address its No. 108 ranked scoring defense to make progress over their 7-6 finish in 2010.
Brady Hoke is an enthusiastic coach who spent six years as an assistant at Michigan in the mid 90s; now that he has all the tools to work with, we will see how good of a football coach he really is.
The tough bit is the fact that the clock is ticking for Hoke and friends, and after the Rich Rod debacle, Wolverine fans will expect wins sooner than later.
Predicted First Year Record: 9-3
Jerry Kill, Minnesota
13 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 127-73
Jerry Kill’s road to the Big Ten has been long and successful. From 1994-98, he was the head coach at Saginaw State (38-14), he spent 1999-2000 at Emporia State (11-11), 2001-07 at Southern Illinois (55-32, including three consecutive Gateway conference titles and five straight NCAA FCS playoff appearances) and finally, Kill was at Northern Illinois from 2008-10 where he went 23-16 and captured a MAC title.
Jerry Kill takes over at Minnesota for Tim Brewster who was 15-30 through almost four seasons (he didn’t coach the final five games of 2010).
The Golden Gophers return 15 starters in 2011 from a team that struggled to a 3-9 finish last season. Concerns are a plenty, but the defense and quarterback situation are headliners.
Minnesota will improve under Kill’s leadership in the years to come, and if the past is any indicator, they may make things interesting in the Legends division sooner than later.
However all good feelings aside, too many questions and challenges face the Golden Gophers to expect Kill to right the ship in 2011.
Predicted First Year Record: 4-8
Dan McCarney, North Texas
14 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 56-85
Dan McCarney played offensive line at Iowa from 1972-74 and is probably best known for his 12 seasons as the head coach at Iowa State where he amassed a 56-85 record from 1995-2006.
McCarney most recently spent three seasons as a defensive line coach at Florida and replaces Todd Dodge at North Texas who went 8-40 over four seasons in Denton. Dodge’s 16 percent winning ratio is hard to stomach regardless of what conference you play in.
The Mean Green return 14 starters from the 2010 squad that went 3-9 which, as scary as it is to say, marked their best finish since 2006.
Dan McCarney will have his work cut out for him at North Texas and the opening five games of the 2011 schedule do him absolutely no favors: at FIU (the defending conference champs), Houston, at Alabama, Indiana and at Tulsa (finished 2010 ranked No. 24).
Yikes.
Predicted First Year Record: 3-9
Dave Doeren, Northern Illinois
15 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
Dave Doeren has the unenviable task of taking over the reins at Northern Illinois from the wildly successful Jerry Kill who went 23-16 over three seasons. Kill’s 58.9 percent winning ratio is the best performance by a Huskie coach since Howard Fletcher won 60.5 percent of his games from 1956-68.
Doeren most recently enjoyed a successful stint as the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin (2006-10) and has never been a head coach at any level.
Northern Illinois returns 14 total starters from their record breaking 11-3 team last season, but gone are all but four starters from a defense that ranked No. 14 in scoring.
The good news is on offense where the Huskies bring back almost the entire offensive unit that ranked a lofty No. 12 in point scoring.
Given all the returning talent and his defensive background Doeren will be expected to have the Huskies back in the hunt for their first MAC title since 1983.
Predicted First Year Record: 9-3
Todd Graham, Pittsburgh
16 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 43-23
Todd Graham has spent five seasons as a head coach and taken his squads to bowl games four of those five years which is even more impressive when you take into consideration that he was working at Rice and then Tulsa.
Graham’s four-year run at Tulsa included three 10-plus win seasons and three bowl victories, and his tenure was wrapped up with the Golden Hurricane’s first Top 25 finish in nearly 20 years.
Graham takes over at Pittsburgh for Dave Wannstedt who went 42-31 in six seasons but failed at getting the Panthers into the BCS.
Pittsburgh returns 16 starters in 2011 and has many of the pieces in place to make a run for a Big East title (in which there is no frontrunner).
How quickly Graham can establish himself as a fixture at Pitt will be critical; this is not a team that is in need of someone to save them, they just want to take it to the next level which Graham can do if he can get this Panther team to follow him.
Predicted First Year Record: 8-4
Rocky Long, San Diego State
17 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 65-69
Rocky Long takes over at San Diego State for Brady Hoke who, after two seasons, had the Aztecs winning more games than they had since 1977.
Long played quarterback for New Mexico from 1969-71 which is also where he spent his entire head coaching career (thus far) taking the Lobos to a 65-69 record over 11 seasons (1998-2008).
After leaving New Mexico (on his own accord) Long was hired as the defensive coordinator at SDSU, a position from which he has been promoted from to replace Hoke.
The Aztecs return 13 total starters from their nine win team in 2010 and many of the key pieces remain in place for a repeat shot at a bowl game.
How much of a negative effect the departure of the enthusiastic Hoke (and offensive coordinator Al Borges) will have on San Diego State in 2011 is an unknown but you have to figure that there will be a transition period.
Predicted First Year Record: 6-6
David Shaw, Stanford
18 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
Stanford Alum David Shaw was finally promoted to the Cardinal head job when Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL after the 2010 season.
Shaw played wide receiver at Stanford from 1991-94 and after several coaching stops (including eight years in the NFL), he landed back at his alma mater in 2007 as the offensive coordinator.
The Cardinal returns 13 starters from last year’s 12-1 team and the biggest holes are on the offensive line and nose tackle.
Above and beyond discussions of personnel are critical questions about whether or not Shaw can whip Stanford up into the winning frenzy Harbaugh achieved in during his four years on the sidelines.
Swagger, confidence and attitude oozed from the Cardinal, especially last season, and you have to wonder if Shaw can be successful at retaining the spirit that underlies a winning team.
The major disadvantage for Shaw is that with Luck coming back the entire football community (most importantly the Stanford fans) will expect very big results, now.
Predicted First Year Record: 9-3
Steve Addazio, Temple
19 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
Steve Addazio takes over at Temple after the exit of Al Golden who went 27-34 over his five years at Temple.
Addazio’s only head coaching experience came during a long stint at the high school level in his home state of Connecticut, and his most recent jobs include a three-year run as the offensive coordinator at Indiana and then the offensive coordinator at Florida under Urban Meyer (2005-10).
The Owls return 14 starters from the team that went 8-4 last season and overall have the talent to do as well in 2011.
Turning the tide at Temple was no easy task and the 17 wins the Owls scored over the past two seasons are the most in two consecutive years at Temple since 1977-78; maintaining this success will be no picnic either.
Addazio’s expectations will be higher than other new head coaches due to the personnel retention and the unprecedented recent success.
Predicted First Year Record: 6-6
Bill Blankenship, Tulsa
20 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
Bill Blankenship played quarterback at Tulsa from 1975-79 and other than the past three years as an offensive positional coach at Tulsa his entire career has been spent (very successfully) at the high school level.
Blankenship takes over for Todd Graham who bolted for Pitt after compiling a 36-17 record over his four years at Tulsa.
The Golden Hurricane return an impressive 17 starters from the 2010 squad that went 10-3 (including being ranked in the final AP poll for the first time in almost 20 years) but the 2011 schedule doesn’t do anyone any favors.
The opener at Oklahoma is followed by a road trip to Tulane and capped off by a home game against Oklahoma State and a road trip to Boise State.
With the exception of the “big three” ugly games in the first four weeks, Tulsa should have an opportunity (providing the defense can improve) to realistically win every other game on its schedule.
We’re about to see what Blankenship can do on a much bigger stage.
Predicted First Year Record: 7-5
James Franklin, Vanderbilt
21 of 21
Overall College Head Coaching Record: 0-0
James Franklin has had a plethora of coaching experience leading up to his first ever head coaching position which he was offered via the Vanderbilt job.
Franklin, who coached at NFL’s Green Bay and Kansas City from 2005-07, was most recently the offensive coordinator (and coach-in-waiting) at Maryland from 2008-10.
Franklin takes over at Vandy for Robbie Caldwell who went 2-10 in one season (remember he was brought in to coach after Bobby Johnson left suddenly before the 2010 season).
Vanderbilt returns an impressive 21 starters (the most nationally) but this is metered by the fact that the Commodores ranked No. 112 in scoring offense and No. 94 in scoring defense in 2010.
James Franklin is enthusiastic about his daunting task at Vandy, but at least he will have the whole team back next season to ease the blow of his first campaign in the relentless SEC.
Predicted First Year Record: 4-8
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