College Football 2011: The Worst-Case Scenario for Every Preseason Top 25 Team
Every college football program in the country has its focus on several aspects during the offseason that ultimately lead to one goal: a national championship. Or, at least they should be investing now for the dividends later, given the riches and exposure provided by a trip to the biggest college football platform.
Coaches, players, alumni and fans will be hyping their teams at this time, talking about star quarterbacks, unstoppable running backs and freakishly athletic wide receivers and defenders, hoping to scare the living piss out of their soapbox onlookers.
But what happens when it all goes horribly wrong? See: Texas 2010. Shame and embarrassment will be just the tip of the iceberg, but how bad could it get?
Every program hopes for the best and fears for the worst.
Barring the obvious (e.g. entire teams enduring season-long injuries), here are the worst-case scenarios for every preseason top-25 team, as ranked by ESPN's Mark Schlabach.
No. 25: Mississippi State
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Mississippi State has playmakers at the skill positions, including quarterback. But revamping a depleted offensive line will be a huge priority for Dan Mullen.
With Manny Diaz's departure for Texas and Chris Wilson's promotion to defensive coordinator, the Bulldogs will have to find that same fire and inspiration to replicate last season's defensive success.
Worst-case Scenario: No solutions on the offensive line trigger offensive woes, and the defense can barely keep its breath.
No. 24: Florida
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While Mack Brown's search for a new coaching staff ensued, Will Muschamp had no intention of sticking around.
The former defensive coordinator inherits a powerful program left behind by Urban Meyer in Gainesville. But in Muschamp's first crack at the Swamp, many eyes will scrutinize his every decision.
Muschamp brought in Charlie Weis to run the Gators' offense, but they will have to find an answer at quarterback to run the show.
Worst-case Scenario: The Gators' defense is up to par, but the offense stalls again without a proven option behind center.
No. 23: Virginia Tech
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Frank Beamer is easily one of the best at bringing talent and extracting said talent from his roster, but how he will fare in replacing the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Darren Evans and Ryan Williams will be one of the storylines to follow as the 2011 season commences.
Much of the defense will be back, but discovering new playmakers on offense will be paramount.
Worst-case Scenario: Logan Thomas, the Hokies' likely starting quarterback, shows promise, but cannot get the offense in a rhythm. The defense is shaky at best, even with a favorable schedule.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 22: TCU
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It's TCU's last year in the Mountain West before heading over to the BCS-guaranteed Big East.
Andy Dalton's replacement will hardly fill his shoes, and why should we expect him to? The Horned Frogs lost 26 seniors from last year's squad. It will be a very different Gary Patterson team, but it should fly under the radar again.
Worst-case Scenario: Behind a JAG (just another guy) at quarterback and underperforming offensive line, the one-time top-10 scoring offense and defense are a glimmer of the past.
No. 21: Arizona State
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The Sun Devils look promising going into the 2011 season, and why shouldn't they—a full offensive line returns, as well as a number of leading receivers and rushers.
Brock Osweiler comes back to start at quarterback after taking the lead position for the final two games in 2010.
But with all this optimism, ASU hasn't had a winning season since 2007 when it went 10-3. Since then, the program has reeled off a 15-21 record over three years.
Worst-case Scenario: The promise bleeds away by the time the Sun Devils reach Utah and Oregon, finishing with a losing record for the third time in four years. Dennis Erickson is promptly let go.
No. 20: Texas
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The Texas Longhorns have already been redeemed, it seems, by a preseason top 25 ranking.
But after a 5-7 season in 2010, expectations are very high in Austin, and cautious optimism has to be floating around the campus after what happened a year ago.
Mack Brown overhauled his coaching staff, and he littered it with enthusiastic and talented young blood.
Worst-case Scenario: New schemes don't stick, and the Horns miss the postseason again.
No. 19: South Carolina
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Stephen Garcia is back after his indefinite suspension, and the Gamecocks have a load of talent between him with running back Marcus Lattimore and receiver Alshon Jeffery.
Keep in mind that Steve Spurrier picked up a beast of a defensive end in incoming freshman Jadeveon Clowney, who should turn into an incredible anchor on defense.
South Carolina looks poised for a run at another SEC East title.
Worst-case Scenario: Garcia either gets suspended again or gets in a funk that leaves too much pressure on Lattimore. The Gamecocks finish with a mediocre season.
No. 18: Missouri
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Missouri put together an impressive season last year, but harshly missed out on a Big 12 title.
With their 3,000 yard passer in Blaine Gabbert off to the NFL, a brand new quarterback will take charge, expect the offense to sputter.
The team likely will be carried by a great defense ranked sixth in scoring in 2010, but every defense has a breaking point.
Worst-case Scenario: The offense can't stay on the field long enough, and the Tigers' defense wears against the high-tempo, Big 12 offenses. Mizzou misses out on in the Big 12 North again.
No. 17: Georgia
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Georgia had a rough campaign in 2010, to say the least.
Under a new 3-4 defensive scheme, the Bulldogs reeled off expected wins over very mediocre programs in Louisiana-Lafayette, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Idaho State. Mark Richt's team also took home its rivalry match against Georgia Tech too.
The lack of true superstar impacts could lead this team out to dry. With no A.J. Green, who is Georgia's top playmaker?
Quarterback Aaron Murray returns after a solid freshman season, but he will have to be much better if the Bulldogs are to challenge for the SEC East.
Worst-case Scenario: Murray struggles with no go-to receiver during a sophomore slump. The second-year 3-4 defense shows little improvement, and the team only achieves the expected wins again.
No. 16: Notre Dame
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The Irish look to have a solid season.
Whether it's Dayne Crist, Tommy Rees or Andrew Hendrix at quarterback, it appears to be enough to make noise, especially with receiver Michael Floyd back for his senior year.
Cierre Wood had a promising freshman year, reeling off 5.1 yards per carry. With Armando Allen Jr. gone, the load likely will shift solely to Wood.
Worst-case Scenario: The saying goes, "When you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks," or something like that. Brian Kelly's multiple-QB look will stall the offense, adding even more weight on Wood's shoulders. Notre Dame's 2011 looks a lot like 2010.
No. 15: Ohio State
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It is entirely possible Ohio State has already been through its worst-case scenario before the season even began.
Jim Tressel is gone, Terrelle Pryor has his own investigation and a number of other Buckeyes are suspended for about half the season. Could it get any worse?
Linebackers coach Luke Fickell will serve as the interim head coach, and he's thrust into a very difficult position.
Worst-case Scenario: Fickell loses control of his team throughout the ongoing distractions, as the Buckeyes simply look lost without any leaders. Ohio State has four conference losses by the end of October to the tune of a 2-6 record.
No. 14: West Virginia
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West Virginia's third-ranked scoring defense from 2010 lost much of its luster and will have to replace several starters.
Whatever is happening with new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen may or may not impact the quality of the Mountaineers' offense, but WVU still has to find playmakers apart from Geno Smith.
They always contend for a Big East championship, but they will be operating with a first-year offense, so kinks and bumps are expected.
Worst-case Scenario: Smith has no help in the new offense, but the defense will be somewhat stable. WVU really has to battle for a championship.
No. 13: Nebraska
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The Big Ten's newest member will have plenty of spotlight and attention coming out of the Big 12.
Nebraska will likely look to its defense for stability until Taylor Martinez finds his feet at quarterback again after a roller coaster freshman campaign.
The Cornhuskers look the part of a Big Ten program.
Worst-case Scenario: After starting the season 4-0, the Huskers get a nasty greeting card from the Big Ten. Nebraska drops all of its road conference games and wins just three of its four home contests. Year two will be better.
No. 12: Wisconsin
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If there is one expectation of a Wisconsin football team, it's that it will produce a powerful running game.
The Badgers return a couple of well-oiled backfield products in Montee Ball and James White, but they will need to reinvent themselves at quarterback with Jon Budmayr.
With that in mind, the Big Ten suddenly looks weaker with Ohio State in shambles.
Worst-case Scenario: Opposing teams use magic to make the Wisconsin running game ineffective. The Badgers miss their chance at a Big Ten title.
No. 11: Arkansas
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Arkansas' vertical threat will look nothing like 2010 with Ryan Mallett in the NFL.
Yes, the Hogs return a number of talented receivers and tailback Knile Davis who rushed for more than 1,300 yards last season. But will a defense that ranked 47th in scoring be improved enough to challenge for the SEC West?
Worst-case Scenario: Tyler Wilson, the Razorbacks' new signal-caller, leaves much to be desired, and the offensive talent that we all raved about disappears and can't keep up. Arkansas' defense can't maintain the intensity all year long.
No. 10: Michigan State
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The Spartans should be in awe of the roller coaster at Ohio State.
With the Big Ten looking like a two-dog race between Michigan State and Wisconsin, Mark Dantonio's team has the appearance of Big Ten champions.
Kirk Cousins is a serviceable game manager at quarterback, and he's shown improvement from season to season. Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell make a great two-headed running back.
But there are holes on the offensive line, in the secondary and at linebacker.
Worst-case Scenario: Cousins doesn't show improvement in his final year, leaving the offense to a running game with new linemen. The Big Ten feeds on the inability to throw.
No. 9: Texas A&M
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The Aggies will have a load of offensive talent that will light up the scoreboard.
Ryan Tannehill played superbly after being handed the starting job at quarterback, and Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael are perhaps the deadliest one-two combo in all of college football. Jeff Fuller could also be the most under-the-radar receiver in the country.
But Mike Sherman doesn't have a replacement at defensive end for Von Miller.
Worst-case Scenario: The offense scores in bunches, but the defense, which was left with a huge void by the departure of Miller, allows more bunches.
No. 8: Stanford
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The 2011 season should be all about Andrew Luck returning to Stanford for his senior year.
But with Jim Harbaugh out and coaching in the NFL this year (maybe), we all will see if coaching makes the biggest difference.
The Cardinal have many pieces to replace, including ones on the offensive line and all around the defense.
Worst-case Scenario: Luck is injured in Stanford's opening drive against San Jose State. No Stanford supporter buys a lottery ticket all season.
No. 7: Boise State
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Watching Kellen Moore go to work is a beautiful thing, and under Chris Petersen's tutelage, he is a front-runner to win the Heisman.
Even with Titus Young and Austin Pettis—two of Moore's most dependable receivers—gone to the NFL, Boise State always seems to have the right athletes available at the right times to make the Broncos' offense move.
Maybe it's just the Petersen system.
At any rate, the Broncos will be good, the sun will rise tomorrow and the grass in Boise will be blue.
Worst-case Scenario: Mountain West programs conspire and paint the grass a very natural-looking and irreplaceable green hue. The Broncos never win again.
No. 6: Oklahoma State
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There is no more Kendall Hunter in Stillwater, Okla., but with quarterback Brandon Weeden and Biletnikoff winner Justin Blackmon returning, the Cowboys figure to be just as explosive.
The mantra that defense wins championships isn't so applicable these days.
Oklahoma State will score enough points to win at least nine, maybe 10 games, but don't expect defense to be the reason why.
Worst-case Scenario: Blackmon runs into trouble again, and Weeden has nobody to throw to. Game, set, match.
No. 5: LSU
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LSU will consistently field a team with as much talent as any program in the country, but it doesn't always equate to the best result.
Coach Les Miles has a semi-dependable starter at quarterback in Jordan Jefferson. Spencer Ware at tailback and Russell Shepard at receiver look to be the top playmakers on the roster.
The Tigers always seem to have a defense that ranks among the best in the country, so expect the status quo from the Bayou Bengals.
New punter and kicker though, so clock management beware.
Worst-case Scenario: Miles has clock management episodes all season, costing games here and there. Jefferson shows more of his 2010 self—and his 2009 self—and shrinks the Tigers' offense to a one-dimensional vanilla machine.
No. 4: Oregon
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Oregon returns the two most important pieces from its BCS championship run in 2010.
Darron Thomas at quarterback and LaMichael James at tailback will again be a force in the Pac-12 and make headlines nationally.
But replacing a number of offensive linemen, as well as even more on defense will test Chip Kelly's roster.
Worst-case Scenario: James is brought under the NCAA microscope, and his future is indeterminate. Thomas is good, but James can carry the offense. Without the Ducks' best player, doubts over their offensive production will increase.
No. 3: Florida State
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It will be an interesting second year for coach Jimbo Fisher, to say the least.
Florida State will usher in E.J. Manuel at quarterback full-time, but the Seminoles don't have the explosive playmakers that will pin them as national championship contenders—for now.
Defensively, they are above average, which is perfectly fine in the ACC.
Worst-case Scenario: Manuel's solid late-season performance last year was a mirage, and he just isn't that great. Opponents will then be able to shut down the 'Noles running attack.
No. 2: Alabama
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The Crimson Tide had a "down" year last season—if one could call it that—going 10-3, but just 5-3 in the SEC.
Former Heisman winner Mark Ingram is gone, but the load will shift to a very capable replacement in Trent Richardson, who very well could leave Tuscaloosa with a better career ahead of him, though perhaps not as decorated.
Nick Saban will field a typical Nick Saban defense, so the lingering issue will be the quarterback position and finding a new Julio Jones at receiver.
Worst-case Scenario: Richardson doesn't handle the load as well as most expect him to, and the Tide have no answers on offense, despite a top-five defense. Alabama effectively misses out on a SEC crown for the second year in a row.
No. 1: Oklahoma
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Oklahoma is one of a few programs in the country that is poised with the right pieces to make a run at the BCS championship.
Quarterback Landry Jones is back for his junior season after a great 4,700 yard performance in 2010, as is the Sooners' top receiver in Ryan Broyles.
Bob Stoops made a name for himself as a defensive coach, but the Crimson and Cream haven't pieced together a dominant defensive squad in a few years.
Worst-case Scenario: Ryan Broyles or Landry Jones succumbs to the injury bug for a significant amount of time, leaving the Sooners with a severe lack of proven playmakers. The defense may hold, but Oklahoma can't score enough without one of the two aforementioned.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
