College Football Predictions: How They'll Finish in Every FBS Conference
Every epoch of history produces a few documents that are destined to stand the test of time.
Selections that come to mind are the Domesday Book of 1086, the Magna Carta, the Declaration of Independence, the US Constitution and the Marshall Plan.
All are sweeping pieces of literary genius that shaped the period in which they were written and their reverberations went on to be felt beyond the lives of their author.
In this proud tradition the following slideshow will attempt to forecast the precise end-of-year standings for each of the 11 FBS conferences and the Independents.
With the historic conference reshuffle this treatise will serve as a bold, first glance at what might transpire during the 2011 college football season; a campaign that is destined to be referred to as a turning point and/or starting point in the chronicles of the greatest of all American team sports.
This is a dissertation that will surely impact a great football people for at least 72 hours; its influence riling the masses and leaving in its wake the brunt force of brilliance delicately intertwined with idiocy.
The ACC
1 of 12
Atlantic Division
1. Florida State
2. NC State
3. Clemson
4. Maryland
5. Boston College
6. Wake Forest
Coastal Division
1. Virginia Tech
2. Miami (FL)
3. North Carolina
4. Georgia Tech
5. Duke
6. Virginia
Florida State is going to be a challenge to unseat from atop the Atlantic but NC State, Clemson and Maryland all have the firepower to do so, especially if QB EJ Manuel doesn’t manage to live up to high expectations.
In the Coastal it is hard to count out Virginia Tech (despite the loss of QB Tyrod Taylor) as the Hokies have won the division title four of the six years since the ACC expanded in 2005. Miami (FL) is definitely a threat with the Tar Heels as a wild card.
The Seminoles and Hokies relatively doable schedules make their postseason promise shine all the brighter; the two won’t play in the regular season and could only meet if they both make the title game, again.
Amid the huge conference reshuffling that will alter college football in 2011 the ACC remains untouched, but that doesn’t mean it won’t get interesting.
What remains to be seen is if an ACC member can find its way back to the BCS Championship; a contest that has not featured an ACC team since the 2002-03 season when Miami (FL) lost to Ohio State in double overtime.
The Big 12
2 of 12
1. Oklahoma
2. Texas A&M
3. Missouri
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas
6. Texas Tech
7. Baylor
8. Kansas State
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas
Change is indeed upon the cards for the Big 12 Conference in 2011.
Gone are Nebraska and Kansas, gone is the divisional format and gone is the Big 12 Championship that was ultimately played 15 times since the Big Eight and partial Southwest Conference joined forces in 1996.
Here to stay is the “Big 12” name (despite the new number of teams) and both Oklahoma and Texas who have dominated the league by capturing 10 of the 15 conference titles thus far including the last seven consecutive crowns.
In fact, only two Big 12 title games have been played without one of the two powerhouses; 1997 when Nebraska thumped Texas A&M 54-15 in San Antonio and in 1998 when the Aggies beat Kansas State in a memorable 36-33 affair in Saint Louis.
Though the format is obviously altered; the power structure remains almost completely intact.
For 2011 Oklahoma has all the pieces in place to make a magical run for more than another conference title. This is unfortunate for up and comers such as Oklahoma State and Texas A&M who will be ranked in the top 15 teams nationally this preseason but who will have their work cut out for them to rise from a second or third place finish.
Oklahoma State will have to find a defense to make a realistic bid and the Aggies will have to both regroup at linebacker and play more consistently to challenge the Sooners.
Texas is a complete unknown that has the talent to upset the entire apple cart while Missouri may be the classic dark horse candidate if their quarterback replacement program is successful early and often.
The Big East
3 of 12
1. West Virginia
2. Pittsburgh
3. Syracuse
4. South Florida
5. Louisville
6. Cincinnati
7. Connecticut
8. Rutgers
The Big East conference has one year remaining before TCU packs its Mountain West luggage and heads eastward to finally reach a destination that has “Welcome to BCS AQ Status” written on the door.
But until that moment the Big East still has to find a winner amongst its eight members.
Though West Virginia should be the team to beat in 2011 they are by no means a lock leaving a good Pitt team (with a new coach but lower expectations), Syracuse and even South Florida (who has a bunch of retooling to do under second year head coach Skip Holtz) in a position to make a charge.
In reality, any of these teams could step up and challenge for, at the very minimum, a top three conference finish.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The Big Ten
4 of 12
Leaders Division
1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Illinois
5. Purdue
6. Indiana
Legends Division
1. Michigan
2. Nebraska
3. Michigan State
4. Iowa
5. Northwestern
6. Minnesota
The Big Ten has been banding Midwestern football powerhouses together since 1896 and 2011 is the first year the conference will be split divisionally and the first time they will host a championship game.
Throwing Nebraska into the mix makes 2011 one of the most exciting seasons in the 115 year history of the oldest conference in the FBS.
The division names will definitely take some getting used to and the Big Ten would be doing themselves a favor if they published the format and breakdown on small laminated cards and included them as a freebee in newspapers, at gas station registers and possibly on the side of 12 packs of beer.
The Leaders division (aka the Drama division) has Wisconsin as a clear front runner and it’s hard to move Ohio State out of the No.2 slot despite the debacle in Ohio’s capital; the Buckeyes have so much talent that losing more than a few games still seems outrageous.
Penn State could challenge both depending on how close they are to closing out their rebuilding scheme and Illinois also should be a considered a contender and has the kind of schedule to silently propel them upwards.
The Legends division seems to have a lot more wiggle room; if Michigan makes even small steps forward defensively they could be the team to beat and a real shocker candidate to make the first ever Big Ten title game.
Nebraska and Michigan State are among the most talented groups in the entire conference but can they play consistently through the entire season? Both are certainly capable and an argument could easily be made that their names should fall above that of the Wolverines.
Iowa is dangerous when they “fly under the radar” and Northwestern has the Dan Persa factor to make both programs perfect spoilers but unlikely division champions.
All in all and regardless of what region of the country you live in this is the year to watch the Big Ten every weekend.
It’s the conference that has it all; scandal, reshuffling, a new powerhouse member, a first ever championship game and absolutely no opportunity for a tie when the season comes to an end.
Provocative.
Conference USA
5 of 12
East Division
1. Southern Miss
2. UCF
3. East Carolina
4. UAB
5. Marshall
6. Memphis
West Division
1. SMU
2. Houston
3. Tulsa
4. UTEP
5. Rice
6. Tulane
C-USA enters its 15th season full of intriguing story lines and ripe with the very real possibility of someone other than ECU or UCF winning the conference title for the first time since Houston won it all in 2006.
The East is home to reigning champ Central Florida but the Knights will have some retooling to do to catch a Southern Miss team that may turn more than a few heads in 2011.
East Carolina’s defense needs to improve to allow the Pirates to contend for another title but a schedule that includes South Carolina, Virginia Tech and North Carolina will make the task even more perilous.
In the West SMU is primed to win its first piece of any title since capturing a Southwest Conference crown back in 1984 (which came just before they found themselves in “the chair”; 18 returning starters are back from the 2011 Ponies squad.
Houston may do more than challenge SMU but we will have to wait and see if QB Case Keenum returns at 100 percent and if the Cougars defense can improve from its No. 96 national ranking in scoring.
Tulsa may be the best team in the West but their schedule which includes trips to Oklahoma and Boise State and a home game against Oklahoma State make another 10 win season seem very difficult.
The C-USA title will likely be decided in a game that pits Southern Miss or UCF against one of two teams from the Lone Star state; SMU or Houston.
The MAC
6 of 12
East Division
1. Miami (OH)
2. Ohio
3. Temple
4. Kent State
5. Bowling Green
6. Akron
7. Buffalo
West Division
1. Northern Illinois
2. Toledo
3. Western Michigan
4. Central Michigan
5. Ball State
6. Eastern Michigan
The MAC is the second oldest conference in the FBS; its 1947 founding date is second only to the Big Ten that was established in 1896.
In 2011 there is every realistic opportunity that Miami (OH) will repeat as MAC champions; the Redhawks return 18 starters from a 2010 squad that went 10-4 and if they can survive the coaching changes they should be able to hold off Ohio and Temple in the East.
If Northern Illinois can defensively rebuild they may be able to surpass surging (and more mature) Toledo in the West but Central and Western Michigan have enough of the right pieces in place to keep things very interesting.
The Mountain West
7 of 12
1. Boise State
2. Air Force
3. TCU
4. San Diego State
5. Colorado State
6. UNLV
7. Wyoming
8. New Mexico
Though the MWC adds flashy Boise State to its membership rolls in 2011 gone are Utah and BYU; the departure of the entire state of Utah absolutely alters the face of the conference which will be further depleted when TCU exits in 2012.
The reductions make Boise State’s campaign to win the conference in its first season as a member seem that much easier and even if they don’t make a run at the national title or bust the BCS it is safe to assume the Broncos have a golden opportunity to hoist the MWC trophy.
Sitting quietly in the wings is Air Force who returns enough munitions to challenge Boise State; with road trips to Navy and Notre Dame on the books the Falcons will have their work cut out to catch the high riding horses.
Don’t be surprised if Air Force at Boise State on October 22 doesn’t become just as critical as Boise State at TCU on November 12.
TCU will retool and will be (again) stacked with talented athletes but how they mesh together and who emerges as the on-field leaders will tell the tale of how quickly the Horned Frogs are “back.”
TCU’s schedule is somewhat friendly for such a rebuilding effort but a Week 2 trip to Air Force will set the tone early for the MWC.
It’s difficult to make a case that the other five teams will make a serious run at anything other than bowl eligibility; which would be a great accomplishment especially for the bottom three programs.
The Pac-12
8 of 12
North Division
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. California
6. Washington State
South Division
1. USC
2. Utah
3. Arizona State
4. Arizona
5. UCLA
6. Colorado
If it weren’t exciting enough to have the Big Ten expand we also have the Pac-12 enlargement program to look forward to in 2011.
Founded in 1959 the conference who always promises to air a late, late game on Saturday night welcomes Colorado and Utah to its ranks next season and then neatly splits the association into two divisions; North and South.
The North division is top heavy with recently dominant Oregon and Stanford; the Ducks get the nod in the new North as despite the fact the two play one another in Stanford it is Oregon who can boast both leadership stability and total returning starters.
Don’t count out Oregon State who could prove to surprise more than a few folks in 2011.
The lack of a clear front runner in the South has many folks heralding Arizona State (who went 6-6 last season but returns 19 starters this season) as the front runner but until they actually prove it on the field it still seems questionable.
If USC can regain their attitude and swagger they may have the athletic prowess to get the job done in the South; just because they can’t move on in the postseason doesn’t mean they can’t beat everybody.
Utah is a proven winner and though they are 35-70-2 all time against Pac-10 opponents they are 15-15 against this group since 1990. The Utes may be ready earlier than a lot of people thought possible.
The challenging nature of the early portion of Arizona’s schedule may put them out of title contention early (tweaking is made much more difficult under serious fire) and the entire Colorado schedule could put the Buffs under .500 for an additional season.
Overall, it’s fairly easy to see Oregon or Stanford representing the North in the first ever Pac-12 Championship game while the candidate from the South is far more difficult to determine; my guess is Utah (partially because of USC’s sanctimonious woes).
The SEC
9 of 12
East Division
1. South Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Florida
4. Tennessee
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt
West Division
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Mississippi State
4. Arkansas
5. Auburn
6. Ole Miss
The SEC fans get the satisfaction of finally watching the Big Ten and Pac-12 teams have to compete for a conference crown via an actual on-field game which should add great enjoyment to their viewing season.
However, the 12 members of the Southeastern Conference will still have to literally fight, tooth and nail, inch by inch through a perilous league of football nations to win both the coveted SEC title and the single guaranteed reservation at the BCS table.
In the East, which is on paper the weaker of the two divisions, South Carolina is the only team that has thus far proved their moxie on the field. The Gamecocks had moments last season when they looked truly destined for something more and with a schedule that is cooperative (by SEC standards) it could all come together in 2011.
Georgia and Florida will be neck in neck and close on the Cocks plumage; either could realistically swoop in and capture the East.
In the West what looks to be a two team race between Alabama and LSU (the edge goes to Alabama because the two meet in Tuscaloosa and due to the fact that the Tide look more stable across the board) could again plausibly be shaken up by either Mississippi State or Arkansas.
Neither division offers any guarantees, a not so bold statement that is validated by the fact that many major media outlets had the two teams who played for the 2010 SEC title (Auburn and South Carolina) both listed as preseason third place finishers in their respective conferences.
And that’s precisely why we love college football.
The Sun Belt
10 of 12
1. Troy
2. FIU
3. ULM
4. Arkansas State
5. North Texas
6. Louisiana-Lafayette
7. Western Kentucky
8. Middle Tennessee
9. FAU
The Sun Belt Conference was founded back in 1976 but didn’t become a football association until 2001 when the Big West conference joined forces with what was previously primarily a basketball league.
In 2011 the Sun Belt should be again dominated by Troy and FIU; the Trojans get the edge especially if they can manage to improve defensively.
ULM may be the most improved squad in the conference but an early season stretch that includes a road trip to Florida State in the opener, a home game versus neighborly FCS Grambling followed by road trips at TCU and at Iowa might zap much of the momentum before things even get properly started.
The real surprise next season could be the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers who have only played a couple of seasons in the FBS (they have two wins overall, both last season) but who return 17 starters and are due to improve by leaps and bounds in Willie Taggart’s second season as the head man in Bowling Green.
The WAC
11 of 12
1. Hawaii
2. Nevada
3. Fresno State
4. Louisiana Tech
5. Idaho
6. Utah State
7. New Mexico State
8. San Jose State
With Boise State and their blue turf gone after a ten year stint with the WAC you can bet that less conference games will be televised in 2011.
Regardless, Hawaii looks to be the team to beat coming into next season which will be the Warriors last campaign as members of the WAC.
Nevada has a bunch of retooling to do and opens the season with three difficult road games (at Oregon, at Texas Tech and at Boise State) while Fresno State has a difficult enough schedule to make running the conference tables seem necessary to capture a conference crown (at Cal, at Nebraska and Ole Miss and Boise State at home).
Both will still have enough firepower to beat the odds and Hawaii will have to watch its painted back.
The dark horse in the 2011 WAC might be the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs who are one defensive revival away from being in contention.
The Independents
12 of 12
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. Army
Though this is obviously not a conference ranking (more a predicted order of finish) it will be exciting to see how BYU copes with its first independent schedule in school history (the slate is highly intriguing and worth looking up).
All in all in 2011 the independents play 19 BCS opponents (Notre Dame leads the way with 10 BCS games), two FCS teams and they face one another four times.
Notre Dame looks to be the frontrunner in the race betwixt the freedom fighters but don’t overlook BYU who, though they lack an automatic way to go BCS-ing, they have all the right stuff to make a surprise splash in their inaugural conference-less campaign.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
