College Football 2011: Predicting Each Conference's Offensive Player of the Year
I have already discussed my thoughts on who the Heisman frontrunners are for next season. The Heisman Trophy is an extremely lofty position though, and only a select few are serious contenders to win the award.
I have decided to broaden my scope a little bit and examine the top offensive talent on a conference by conference basis.
We will take a look at just who is the cream of the crop amongst the little guys in the Sun Belt and the MAC. Questions will also be answered on a large scale as well, with decisions being made about the top offensive playmakers in the SEC and Pac-12.
Read on as I give a conference by conference rundown and reveal who will be named offensive player of the year in every conference.
ACC: Lamar Miller (Miami [FL])
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Running back Lamar Miller had a fabulous freshman campaign for Miami [FL] last season, rushing for 646 yards and six touchdowns.
As good as Lamar Miller’s freshman campaign was, the running back is poised to have even more success next fall as a sophomore. Miller shared carries with senior Damien Berry last season, but Berry has exhausted his eligibility, and now Lamar Miller will take on the featured role in the Hurricanes backfield.
Lamar Miller was one of the top 100 recruits in the class of 2009 as rated by Rivals. He had his coming out party against Virginia Tech last season. Miller gashed defensive coordinator Bud Foster’s Hokie defense by rushing for 163 yards and one rushing touchdown.
Running back Mike James will also get a sizeable amount of carries for the Hurricanes, but Miller will be one of the main catalysts of Miami [FL]’s offense next fall.
Big 12: Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State)
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I ended up giving Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon the nod over Oklahoma stars Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles.
The 6’1" 207 lb. Blackmon has blazing speed, good size and excellent athleticism which all equates to the 1,782 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns he accumulated as a sophomore in 2010.
Quarterback Brandon Weeden returns to deliver the ball to Blackmon. The duo know each other well and have great timing.
The majority of Justin Blackmon’s big plays have come off vertical routes and jump ball situations. It is in these two situations especially that the wide receiver separates himself from his peers.
One thing to watch though in regards to Blackmon and the Cowboy offense next season will be the departure of offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen. Holgorsen was the architect behind Oklahoma State’s high octane spread offense. He left over the offseason and is the head coach in waiting at West Virginia.
Big Ten: Denard Robinson (Michigan)
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Denard Robinson was awarded Big Ten offensive player of the year in 2010, and there is no reason to believe that he will not take home the award next season.
The dual-threat quarterback returns virtually his entire cast of supporting skill players. Wide receiver Darryl Stonum is indefinitely suspended after being arrested for drunken driving, but the Wolverines have more than enough talent at wide receiver to make up for the loss of Stonum.
Robinson put up ridiculous statistics last season as a sophomore, gaining over 4,000 yards of total offense and scoring 32 touchdowns. He is a threat to make a huge play whenever he has the ball in his hands, whether throwing the football or gaining yards on the ground.
The only thing that will derail Robinson’s chances of taking home offensive player of the year honors will be an injury.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Big East: Geno Smith (West Virginia)
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In a league that lacks starpower and subsequent national publicity, West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith stands out as the player who has the best chance of making noise on the national stage next season.
Smith threw for 2,763 yards, 24 touchdowns and only seven interceptions last season as a sophomore. He displays good decision-making under center and has no problem accurately delivering the ball to his wide receivers.
The presence of offensive guru and head coach-in-waiting Dana Holgorsen should greatly aid Smith as well. Holgorsen directed a potent offense at Oklahoma State that centered on a high volume passing attack run out of the shotgun. This type of system will be conducive to greater success and bigger statistics for Smith. Geno Smith and wide receiver Tavon Austin will form the Big East’s top quarterback-wide receiver duo next season.
Smith will have to deal with increased expectations as well as the departure of decorated running back Noel Devine next fall.
Conference USA: Kyle Padron (SMU)
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Some might argue that Houston quarterback Case Keenum is the obvious choice here. I have a lot of respect for Keenum, but I am hesitant to put too much stock into his return next fall. A torn ACL is a very difficult injury to return from, and I am not convinced Keenum will immediately revert back to his 2009 record setting form.
SMU quarterback Kyle Padron excelled in head coach June Jones run and shoot offense last season as a sophomore. Padron threw for 3,828 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
Kyle Padron should take another step forward in 2011 as a junior. Wide receiver Cole Beasley amassed 1,060 receiving yards last season and will be Padron’s top target next season.
June Jones produced two decorated collegiate quarterbacks during his time at Hawaii in Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan. Padron has a chance to have a similar impact for this resurgent SMU program.
MAC: Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois)
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Jerry Kill did not leave the cupboard bare when he left Northern Illinois for Minnesota. New head coach Dave Doeren will inherit a veteran Northern Illinois squad that is headlined by senior quarterback Chandler Harnish. Harnish was a first team all Mid-American conference performer last season.
The quarterback threw for 2,530 yards, 21 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He has good size for the position at 6'2" 219 lbs. and displays great decision-making as evidenced by his impressive 4-1 touchdown to interception ratio.
Harnish also returns his top two wide receivers in Willie Clark and Nathan Palmer.
A case could be made for Miami [OH] quarterback Zach Dysert or Bowling Green wide receiver Kamar Jordan, but Chandler Harnish stands above the two as the favorite to be named offensive player of the year at season’s end.
Mountain West: Kellen Moore (Boise State)
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This was probably the most no-brainer selection out of all the conferences.
Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore leads the Broncos into their first season of Mountain West play, and is far and away the most potent offensive talent that the conference has to offer.
Kellen Moore threw for 3,845 yards and 35 touchdowns last season as a junior. During his three seasons at the school, Moore has never thrown less than 3,000 passing yards in a season.
Critics contend that Moore will struggle this season with the departures of wide receivers Titus Young and Austin Pettis, but personnel losses have not slowed down the quarterback in the past. Expect Tyler Shoemaker to step into the role of No. 1 wide receiver in Boise’s spread offense next season. Running back Doug Martin has also proven to be a skilled pass catcher as well.
TCU running back Ed Wesley was given slight consideration here, but Wesley cannot match Moore’s offensive firepower.
Pac-12: LaMichael James (Oregon)
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Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is the top overall player and professional prospect in the Pac-12 conference. With that being said, Oregon running back LaMichael James is much better suited to take home offensive player of the year honors in the conference.
Luck’s top two wide receivers have departed in Doug Baldwin and Ryan Whalen. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has left the program as well. Harbaugh filled the San Francisco 49ers coaching vacancy in the offseason. I realize that new head coach David Shaw was the offensive coordinator at Stanford last season, but there will still be an adjustment period for Luck and his teammates.
LaMichael James returns to Eugene to play in Oregon head coach Chip Kelly’s wide open spread offense. James will be surrounded by returning playmakers such as quarterback Darron Thomas, running back Kenjon Barner and wide receiver Josh Huff. James will be less of a marked man in Oregon’s offense and will be in a more familiar situation than Andrew Luck.
Both are excellent players, and it would not be too farfetched to call them the top two talents in the country. At the end of the season though, LaMichael James will take home Pac-12 offensive player of the year honors over Andrew Luck.
SEC: Trent Richardson (Alabama)
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SEC offensive player of the year honors will go to Alabama running back Trent Richardson.
Richardson split carries with running back Mark Ingram during his first two seasons in Tuscaloosa. He averaged an impressive 6.3 yards per carry last season as a sophomore. Richardson has a devastating mix of power and speed that make him a nightmare for opposing defenses.
Trent Richardson will be the featured running back in head coach Nick Saban’s offense next season. He will not be the sole running back in the offense though. Sophomore Eddie Lacey rushed for 406 yards last season, and should take an ample amount of carries as well.
A case could also be made here for South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore as well as his teammate wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. I actually slightly favor Marcus Lattimore over Richardson as a running back, but I have serious questions as to whether South Carolina’s offensive line can consistently open up holes for Lattimore. Alshon Jeffery, meanwhile, will have to get solid quarterback play out of either Stephen Garcia or Connor Shaw in order for the wide receiver to put up POY numbers.
Sun Belt: T.Y. Hilton (Florida International)
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Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton had a great season for head coach Mario Cristobal and Florida International in 2010. The wide receiver had over 1,100 total yards and nine touchdowns. Hilton was named Sun Belt player of the year for his accomplishments.
Entering the 2011 season, there is no reason to think that Hilton will not build on the success he achieved last fall. Senior quarterback Wesley Carroll returns to get the ball to Hilton in space.
T.Y. is being projected by scouts to be a third-round pick in next year’s 2012 NFL draft. The receiver has the skills to dominate his competition in the Sun Belt conference. Barring an injury, T.Y. Hilton will be the conference’s top offensive talent next season.
WAC: Bryant Moniz (Hawaii)
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It is truly remarkable that just a few years ago Hawaii quarterback Bryant Moniz was delivering pizzas in an attempt to pay for school as a walk on football player.
Needless to say, Hawaii has now chipped in with a scholarship to pay for some of Moniz’s classes. No word on if he still has the hat and uniform from his pizza boy days.
The senior quarterback from Wahiawa, Hawaii had a breakout season last year throwing for an astounding 5,040 passing yards, 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Wide receiver Greg Salas has moved onto the NFL, but expectations for this upcoming season are still sky high for Moniz.
Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore has moved on to the Mountain West Conference, and Bryant Moniz is the clear favorite to take home some well-deserved honors at the end of the year.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
