Cincinnati Reds: Losing Now, but Not Without Hope for October

There is no joy in Redsville these days. 

That is to be expected when a team not only loses eight of nine games, but one of those losses included a no-hit inning pitched by an opponent’s second baseman, who picked up a win in the process of shutting down the meat of the Red's once-imposing lineup.

The Reds were most everyone’s preseason favorites in the NL Central coming into this year, but they are currently in the midst of being lapped by aged and unathletic St. Louis Cardinals team that plays no defense, and have been caught by a Brewers team the Reds have dominated head-to-head.  

The Reds’ recent play has not exactly inspire confidence, so some fan anxiety is understandable. 

The good news, though, is that there need not be panic in the streets.

But before delving into the Reds’ potential solutions, let us examine the issues to be addressed.

Multiple factors have played into the team's funk. A series of minor injuries has made the Reds’ roster a constant carousel. The expected superior pitching depth has turned out to be an interchangeable mix of mediocrity. The left field and shortstop positions have been offensive black holes. 

Almost as maddeningly, Dusty Baker still doesn't understand the concept of putting his best hitters near the top of his lineups and seems to think he is entitled to some kind of managerial extra credit per needless double-switch.

While this year's Reds roster is almost identical to the one that thrilled fans on its way to a division title last year, it seems, in short, to be missing last year's magic. 

At a glance, this story looks awfully similar to what Reds fans saw in 2000. That year, a Reds team was similarly awash with preseason hype, but lacked the chemistry of the unexpectedly good 1999 team, and ultimately went nowhere. 

The story sounds familiar, but the similarities disappear on closer inspection. 

Unlike the 2000 team, this year’s squad is not faced with the dynamic of adjusting to the new presence of an declining but hypersensitive all-time great who does not seem to want to be there. It is not on the verge of revolting against its manager. 

This season, the Reds are not relying on repeat improbable career years from a series of journeymen pitchers. Steve Paris is nowhere to be found.

So fear not, Reds Nation. 

This team is, or at least will be, better than it has played thus far this year. The Southern Ohio has not been sucked in a time warp to the year 2000.

The Reds pitching has been bad so far, but Bronson Arroyo will come around—he always does. Johnny Cueto has been good since returning from the disabled list, and there's every reason to think he will continue with the annual improvement he's shown each year he has been in the majors. 

Edinson Volquez is too talented not to figure out his issues eventually, just like he did last year. In the meantime, Mike Leake will at least pitch well enough to keep games competitive. Homer Bailey looks to have finally morphed into the dominant pitcher he was always projected to be, if only he can stay healthy. 

The Reds have generally been good in the bullpen and will be better when Aroldis Chapman can rest his shoulder long enough to get healthy and again be dominant. If Francisco Cordero continues to blow saves, the Reds could at least theoretically just get rid of him this year, since his bloated contract comes off the books in October regardless.

The pitching is going to be fine, eventually. 

The offensive solutions are not as simple, but they are not a lost cause either.  The Reds have gotten acceptable (or better) production from every spot in the lineup other than left field and shortstop. 

In left, Johnny Gomes might get hot at some point and hit 20 home runs for the third consecutive year, or he might revert to his 2008 form and still be hitting .180 at year's end. 

The former would solve the left field problem. 

The latter would open the door to the future in Chris Heisey. While Heisey, has thus far only been ok, this year, consistent at-bats will speed up his development into a key contributor. One only has to look to last year to see this same saga played out with Drew Stubbs, another inexperienced player who struggled mightily the first half of the year, but turned into a tremendous asset when things finally clicked in the second half of the season.

The Reds may have reason to worry about production from shortstop, but this will be less of an issue if Baker ever wises up and bats Paul Janish or Edgar Renteria eighth consistently.

Cincinnati can live with a .220 there, particularly if a low batting average there is balanced out with Janish's defense. 

Of course, a good team is more than the sum of its parts. There is an argument to be made that this year's Reds team so far has been slightly less than what its parts suggest it should be, and that is puzzling because on paper, this year’s team looks better than last year’s. 

But this annoying puzzle is exactly what should give Reds fans hope. 

It also means there is no reason why they team should not snap out of it and start playing up to its talent at some point during the long marathon of this baseball season. 

The team has as much talent as last year’s version, none of the clubhouse chemistry issues that marked the 2000 squad, and none of the numerous injuries they have suffered so far appear to be serious. 

The 2011 Cincinnati Reds will get healthy, and they will get better. 

And when they do, whoever is leading the NL Central probably won’t be out of reach.