Iowa Football 2011: 5 Keys to Hawkeye Chase for a Big Ten Title
They make the difference. They determine the destiny.
It's been well documented how much turnover Iowa has to deal with this season. The list of names is long and distinguished.
From their all-time leading receiver and three-year starting quarterback to an All-American defensive end and a pair of star safeties, the Hawkeyes have lost a ton of talent. The offense may appear crippled and the defense may appear devastated.
Does that automatically mean that Iowa will have to settle for also-ran status in the conference race? Worse?
Not necessarily.
That's not to say that you should pencil the Hawkeyes in as early participants in the Big Ten Championship Game this December. However, there are a set of keys to the chase that, if Iowa can get locked down, could lead to a shot at the first Legends Division title.
1. The Offensive Line Must Play Up to Potential
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This unit is the linchpin of Iowa's offense. Always has been, and probably always will be. If they're not up to snuff, the run game sputters and the quarterback spends more time running for his life than scanning through his progressions.
Riley Reiff, James Ferentz and Markus Zusevics return to anchor a line that is widely considered the strength of Iowa's returning offense. Adam Gettis will likely join that trio, along with (potentially) Nolan McMillan.
With Ricky Stanzi going off to eventually play for the Kansas City Chiefs, James Vandenberg will take over the quarterback duties. He's had some admirable performances (at Ohio State, 2009), but has also had some very pedestrian performances (Minnesota 2009).
Having room to breath and time to make his reads would be tremendously beneficial to a young man getting his first taste of being the full-time starting field general.
Marcus Coker showed that he was more than capable of carrying the running duties for Iowa but, as with any running back, his chances of getting great numbers improve exponentially if he's not battling to break tackles the second he touches the ball.
The offensive line can't do what the defensive line did in 2010. It can't be merely "okay". It can't be good in just one area, while mediocre in another. It has to be good—all the way around.
If it is as good as advertised, Coker can get the kind of yards on the ground to help take a ton of pressure off Vandenberg and the Hawks can put together sustained drives that should produce points.
It will buy Vandenberg time to make good decisions and avoid the rookie mistakes that tend to happen when an inexperienced quarterback is under too much pressure.
2. Vandenberg Has to Limit His Turnovers
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Inevitably, when people start talking about James Vandenberg as the new Hawkeye quarterback, they mention his performance in Columbus in 2009. Vandenberg did lead Iowa to an overtime loss against the eventual conference champion Buckeyes.
What's often overlooked in that solid performance though, is that "Vandy" threw three interceptions to two touchdowns. In fact, in 2009 (when he saw the most action) he threw a total of five interceptions to just those two touchdowns.
In the two games outside of the Ohio State contest in which Vandy saw appreciable playing time (vs Northwestern and Minnesota), he failed to throw a single touchdown while tossing an interception in each game.
That might be expected of a freshman, especially given that he spent so little time practicing with the first-team offense. It's also worth noting that he played so little in 2010 that we can't accurately gauge how improved he may have been last season.
Still, he has to be more careful with the football. With Marcus Coker running behind him, he shouldn't be asked to do a lot, so when he does throw the ball, he needs to make it count.
The defense might be fine. We don't really know yet. To some degree though, we have to assume that there will be some issues that may not get worked out.
Given the strength of the offenses Iowa will face—such as Michigan State's, Michigan's, Northwestern's and Nebraska's—the Hawkeyes can't afford to hand away extra opportunities. The defense might not be able to come through.
If he can limit the interceptions, Iowa's offense should be potent and dangerous on two fronts. He's got good receivers in Marvin McNutt and Keenan Davis. He just needs to make sure he hits them.
3. Michael Meyer Needs to Be More Consistent
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Don't get the impression that Meyer was "bad" in 2010. He did successfully connect on 14 of 17 field goals (82.4 percent), and he did make 31 of 33 extra points (93.9 percent).
For a freshman, that's not bad at all.
However, his failures seemed to come at inopportune times (missed PAT was difference in Iowa's 30-31 loss to Wisconsin). Special teams as a whole looked awful against Arizona early in the season last year, though we can't rightly blame that solely on Meyer.
The problem is, Iowa tends to play very close to the vest. Their five losses in 2010 were by a combined 18 points. Three of those losses were by three points or fewer. The year before, they won four by three or fewer points and two more by 10 or fewer.
There's just no room for error, particularly in the kicking game. It's always something of a crap shoot to ask a kicker to hit a 50-yard field goal, especially if there's any wind at all. However, everything 40 yards and under has to be money in the bank. It just has to be, when your team finds itself in so many close situations.
Extra points have to be automatic (barring a block, that is). There can be no excuses for missing kicks that close to the goal.
Meyer will be very, very good, but it has to happen now. If he can clean it up a little bit and become more consistent, the coaching staff will come to have faith in him in every circumstance, but especially when the game is tight.
With a better kicking game, Iowa can start winning the close games again, like they did in 2009 when they finished the season 11-2.
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4. Defensive Secondary Needs to Tighten Up Pass Defense
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The Hawkeyes did get 19 interceptions in 2010 that resulted in four touchdowns. Micah Hyde's pick-six in the Insight Bowl handed Iowa their victory over Missouri. Eight different Hawkeyes recorded an INT last year.
That's all well and good. Great even, considering that the Hawkeyes were tied with Ohio State for having the most take aways via interception in the conference.
However, in total yards allowed through passing, the Hawkeyes finished a paltry seventh in the conference. They allowed an average of 230.5 yards per game through the air.
Consider that, at the very least, Pitt, Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan (maybe), Michigan State (definitely) and Nebraska will all have quarterbacks capable of exploiting Iowa's secondary. All of those teams are beatable, but it will become exponentially more difficult if the Hawkeyes can't control the air attack.
There's plenty to be excited about with this group though. Micah Hyde's move to free safety answers one of the biggest questions coming out of last season when both Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood moved on. Shaun Prater should lock down one of the corner positions nicely.
There are still some concerns however, with the other corner position and the strong safety slot.
Assuming that the run defense will continue to be good, as it usually is on a Norm Parker coached team, if the pass defense can step up and rise into even the top four in the conference, Iowa will be in every game they play with a solid shot at winning.
5. Coaching Needs to Stretch the Mold
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You have to respect the coaches at Iowa for their approach to the game. They don't do anything fancy. They play straight forward on both sides of the ball and challenge their opponents to be more fundamentally sound than Iowa.
It's borderline cocky in a very unassuming package that's chalk full of humility.
Most of the time, it has worked very well. The Hawkeyes either execute or they don't, but they rarely win or lose because of gimmicks or flashy schemes.
However, there comes a time when the basics may not be enough, and that time is usually dependent on the talent available.
As mentioned before, Iowa typically has little room for error. They routinely have several games per season that are decided by the narrowest of margins where a single play can change the outcome of the contest.
There could be an argument that because Iowa does play so close to the vest, they can't afford to mess with their formula. If a single play can turn the tide of a game, they might not want that play to be a trick play gone awry and then wonder what might have been if they'd have just played it straight.
However, I think about some of the teams under Hayden Fry. It's difficult to debate whether the talent level was any better, much worse or pretty much the same. Iowa is Iowa is Iowa.
Yet, "the Silver Fox" always had a trick or two up his sleeve for special occasions. You never really knew when he would pull out one of those tricks or how spectacular it would be.
I'd challenge Kirk Ferentz (and OC Ken O'Keefe) to take a page from his former boss. Put together a handful of "special plays" for those games when a little extra oomph would throw the opponent for a loop and potentially set the Hawkeyes up for victory.
Having said that, I hope Ken O'Keefe listens to this: an end around is not an effective trick play. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
Flea flickers are trick plays. Hook and laterals are trick plays. Naked bootlegs, if correctly sold and timed, are trick plays. End around's are over done and so rarely work the way they're intended—at least for Iowa.
At any rate, Iowa's opponents know what they're getting.
They know that Marcus Coker will plow across the line and they know that Marvin McNutt is a dangerous receiver.
They know that the Hawkeyes will use their tight ends as receivers as much or more than they use them as blockers.
They know that the defense will be solid against the run and they know that it will give up a ton of short plays to protect the long one.
It's time Iowa shows them something they don't know. In tight contests, stretching the mold of what Iowa football is might just make the difference between a 7-5 or a 10-2 season. Don't be afraid to take some chances and throw a little "spark" into the way the game is played.
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