Trickle Down Economics and Pigskin Prognostication: Bama Vs Tennessee

Avoid the Rush - Hate Orange Early.

Whew!

Another home game that turned from a blowout into a close battle has been won. The venom that flowed from the Mississippi fan base both before and after this game was remarkable.  I guess that is to be expected from a team who holds a 9-45-2 record against you.

The 2008 Ole Miss Rebels are a study in both trickle down effects of recruiting, and schizophrenic coaching. Ed Orgeron elevated the efforts of recruiting at Mississippi from average to good, and while his ineptitude as a coach resulted in very little to show for his recruiting, he did lay a solid foundation for Houston Nutt to build a team on.

Many Bama fans hold severe disdain for Houston Nutt, and for many reasons. Some fans will point to the fact that Houston Nutt reported Alabama to the NCAA during the tenure of Mike DuBose, however that issue enough is not enough to “hate” Nutt.

The fact is, Nutt, Fulmer, and Spurrier, as well as several other coaches, their spouses, friends, enemies, casual acquaintances, and Pee-Wee Herman, turned the DuBose staff in for recruiting issues.

Alabama rivals fear the return of the winningest program in Southern Football History to full strength; so much so that a booster of a rival team recently hired a private investigator to try and dig up dirt on Nick Saban’s recruiting—in spite of the fact that Saban has recruited top classes everywhere else he has been, without ever being accused of wrongdoing.

I guess such tactics are not unexpected, in light of the fact that an Auburn booster was once caught paying a former Alabama player (Gene Jelks) to lie about receiving inducements while at the Capstone.

Such is life in the SEC.

The real reason that Bama fans dislike Nutt, is that he puts schizo teams on the field that can beat you on any given day. Nutt is one of those rare coaches who will coach up a team to beat the best, only to lose to a mid-major the following week.

In 2006, USC hung fifty points on Arkansas, who then beat both Alabama and Auburn, followed by Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee, to win the west. If a mad scientist created a hybrid coach from the DNA of both Mike Leach and Bill Curry, it would be Houston Nutt.

He can be incredibly annoying and outrageous…at times he is insane…at others he is brilliant—but you never like playing his teams. It is maddening, and Bama fans have grown to seriously dislike the man.

Against Arkansas, Alabama played another game where we only played two complete quarters, yet we still made it through with a win. A win is always better than a loss, but I don’t know how much more the collective nerves of the Bama Nation can handle.

On to Tennessee

Tennessee is the antithesis of Arkansas in terms of trickle down football.

UT has recruited well for most of Fulmer’s tenure, however in 2008 the Vols class was rated 35th by Scout. In 2007 they finished 4th. The 2006 class weighed in at 24th, and the 2005 class was rated the No.1 class by Scout. The 2004 class held the No.9 spot, giving their five year average ranking between 14 and 15.

Dropping this year’s freshman class from the ranking makes their average class finish in the top 10. While UT has lost numerous players to off the field issues, they still have a lot of talent on the field—so much so that they were on many preseason top 20 lists.

Simply put, what UT has in terms of talent, they make up for with lack of coaching.

The 2008 UT Vols opened the season with a disappointing loss at UCLA—a loss the looked much worse when UCLA was roasted 59-0 by BYU the following week.

Of the three wins that the Vols have posted this season, only one has come against a team with a winning record—and that was a 4-3 MAC team (Northern Illinois), by a score of 13-9.

The combined records of the three teams that UT has beaten, is 7-14. That means that Alabama has posted as many victories this season, as the Vol’s three victims—combined.

UT has improved some as the season has progressed, however their offense in the second post-Cutcliffe era is second (SEC) only to MSU in terms of ineptitude. The 2008 Vols rank ninth in the SEC in scoring, averaging just under 20 points per game. The Vols improved some against MSU this past weekend, however MSU is ranked eighth in total defense in the SEC with a schedule that includes two directional Louisiana teams, as well as Auburn—an offensive disaster.

MSU gave up 438 yards rushing to Georgia Tech— not a misprint, 438 yards was the actual number—and it is not surprising that UT managed 139 after being held to just one yard by Georgia.

The score of the MSU game is somewhat misleading, as the Vol defense victimized the pathetic passing attack of MSU for TWO interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. Tennessee’s two TD scoring drives began just across on their side of the 50, and their longest drive was a 63-yard drive resulting in a field goal.

To put it plainly, UT is ranked ninth in the SEC in rushing, averaging 124.6 ypg (139 against MSU). NIU held them to 69 yards rushing. They are not a great rushing team. UT also ranks eighth in the SEC in passing with an average of 171.4 ypg (136 against MSU). They are not a great passing team. Those two units combine to give UT an average of 296 yards per game, good enough to rank ninth in the SEC.

Defensively, the Vols are a bit of a mixed bag. At times this season they have played pretty solid defense, and they currently ranked in the top half of SEC in total defense. Those numbers may be somewhat inflated due to the weak sisters on the Vol schedule.

UGA gashed UT for 458 yards and held a 42:04 to 17:56 advantage in time of possession. The 30-6 blowout at the hands of Florida was fueled by a combination of big plays in special teams, and UT turning the ball over. UT actually played Florida a statistically close game, out-gaining UF in total offense. UT also out-gained UCLA in a losing effort.

The Matchup

When UT is on offense, look for them to try and test the middle of Alabama’s defensive line early. Without Terrence Cody in the lineup this week, the Alabama DL becomes a question mark. Unlike 2007, Alabama does have some depth at the nose. Josh Chapman has played well in rotation with Cody, and has been reported to be the strongest player on the team.

While he does not have Cody’s bulk, he has still drawn double teams much of the time, and does not cause a glaring weakness. It is vital, however, that Alabama does not give up extended drives to UT. The depth behind Chapman is not so good, and I expect that effort will be spent in practice this week trying to shore up that position. It is likely that a new name will be seen at nose tackle this week.

Tennessee is on their second quarterback of the season in Nick Stephens, and his completion percentage is just under 50 percent. The Vol passer has completed several passes for long yards, but the young signal caller is not likely to beat you with his arm. Still, Alabama will need to pressure the sophomore, and Nick Saban defenses are good at getting in the head of inexperienced quarterbacks.

As long as he is not given all day to throw, his effectiveness is minimal. That should not be a difficult task, given the poor play by the Vol OL this season. Stephens has been sacked a total of six times, in just three starts.

Look for Alabama to use the same script that they used against Clemson and UGA. Stop the run first, and keep the passing game in front. The Vols have not shown significant offensive power, and have been held in check by virtually everyone.

When Alabama is on offense, it will be McElwain’s time to shine. In 2007, UT made John Parker Wilson look like a bona fide Heisman candidate, and that was with a running game that was on its third string tailback and missing four starters on the OL. The 2008 Crimson Tide offense has significantly more fire power, and will (as with the defense) try to duplicate the UGA and Clemson game plans, with a few added wrinkles.

The UT defense was victimized by Stafford, as the UGA QB threw for over 300 yards against the hapless UT secondary. The passing game was opened up by the running game of Georgia. Moreno ran for 101 yards, as the Bulldogs ran for 148 on the day. Auburn and Florida’s spread offenses ran for right at 100 yards apiece.

If UT has a strength on defense, it is against the run, but they have not played against a team with a line the caliber of Alabama’s. Second-half let-downs aside, the Alabama offensive line can be unstoppable when it gets rolling, and with the adrenaline of a match-up against a traditional rival, there is no better time to get physical.

Intangibles: The coaching match-up

Fulmer is just 1-3 against Nick Saban, however the one win represents the only game Saban ever coached in Knoxville, an eight point Vol victory—and Saban avenged in the SEC Championship game the same season. The 2008 Vols are not the caliber of the 2001 SEC Eastern Division Champions, and Alabama enters the game as the most complete team in the league—in spite of sleepwalking though the second half of the past three games.

The Bottom Line:

Alabama has yet to put together four full quarters of football on the season. The 2007 Alabama team did so just once—in a blowout win over UT in Tuscaloosa. Rivalry games can bring out the best in coaches and players, and they all know how important this game is.

The players have committed themselves to not allowing the trend of second half collapses to continue, and the coaches will have Alabama ready. While Saban was hired to build a championship program, there were two games that Saban knows hold more meaning for fans. The first one is this weekend.

Trickle Down Prediction…
Alabama Rolls.

Bama 35
UT 14