College Football 2011: 8 Powerhouse Teams We Have No Confidence in
Oh go ahead and admit it, there are always a select number of teams placed near the top of preseason rankings that you just have to wonder about.
Initially you see their names listed and you think, “Wow, you know that team never impressed me last season,” or perhaps you muse quietly, “didn’t they lose like half their team to the NFL and graduation?”
And then at some point you read enough and hear enough on radio and TV to begin to believe that maybe you are wrong and the experts are right, yes, perchance these guys really do deserve to be ranked that high.
But still, in the back of your mind, in the catacombs where you hide your deepest and most intimate thoughts you know that something’s just not right with putting “Team X” at No. 7 in the preseason rankings.
You may be wrong, you may be right, you may be crazy or it might just be a lunatic you’re working for.
Regardless, the following slideshow presents eight teams that are commonly thought to be “powerhouse” contenders coming in 2011 that in reality don’t have our collective and complete confidence.
Stanford
1 of 8
After Stanford’s stunning No. 4 finish and BCS Orange Bowl victory in 2010 it’s easy to see why early predictions have the Cardinal among the best teams in the nation.
However, more careful analysis produces more questions than answers about the Cardinal and frankly the scales somewhat tip in the wrong direction, at least on paper.
On the plus side we have returning QB Andrew Luck who brings talent, leadership, intensity and physicality to the table.
The minus part of the equation includes the departure of three key offensive linemen, the exit of head coach Jim Harbaugh (replaced by former assistant David Shaw), the two primary receivers are gone and a slew of other coaching staff changes is headlined by the loss of both coordinators (Greg Roman offensively and Vic Fangio defensively).
How will these huge hits effect performance, leadership and the overall attitude of Stanford’s 2011 product is obviously an unknown.
Though the cupboard is far from bare, can Luck really carry this team successfully through a full Pac-12 schedule? Can he provide enough leadership to ignite the swagger and attitude the Cardinal had last year?
There is certainly enough downbeat evidence to make you wonder where Stanford will wind up at the end of next season.
Oklahoma State
2 of 8
Speaking frankly, Oklahoma State is a team a lot of people would like to see do well, regardless of their past successes they are and will be a classic “underdog” in the Big 12 until they can win a conference title.
This is no easy feat.
You can’t deny the Cowboys stunning successes in 2010; an 11-2 finish, a Big 12 South Division co-championship and a final AP ranking of No. 13.
On the other side of the coin you can’t repudiate the fact that these stunning achievements (in what was meant to be a rebuilding year) were gained squarely on the shoulders of an offense that ranked No. 3 in scoring (vs. a scoring defense that ranked No. 61).
What is troubling about the Cowboys moving forward is the loss of OC Dana Holgorsen who was the mastermind who turned the offensive fortunes of OSU a full 360 degrees.
Before you underestimate the loss of Holgorsen (who is at West Virginia) look at what happened to Texas Tech last season when Mike Leach left: the Red Raiders offense was completely transformed under Tuberville/Brown but not in a good way.
Yes, the Cowboys are going to attempt to run the same offense and have virtually everyone back on that side of ball except for RB Kendall Hunter (a huge, huge loss) but how much will the Oklahoma State attack be slowed without its teacher and visionary planner?
This question is exasperated by a defense that struggled last season and loses six starters from the defensive front seven.
If the Oklahoma State offense takes even a small step backwards this could put a bunch of pressure on a defense that might collapse.
All this makes it hard to be completely confident in the Cowboys finishing at or above the high mark they set last season.
TCU
3 of 8
Regardless of huge personnel losses from their 2010 undefeated Rose Bowl championship team, TCU has found its way into many preseason top 15 rankings.
Is it the past success of Gary Patterson’s Horned Frog rebuilding projects, is it the Mountain West schedule or is it just respect?
At any rate it seems questionable at best to expect TCU to come even close to matching their 2010 successes.
The defense may keep the Frogs in games but there are so many questions offensively and in terms of leadership that it is hard to justify their high preseason ranking.
It seems safe to say that TCU will field a competitive team and they are going to win some big games but will they be ranked in the Top 15 at the end of the season?
It sure seems tough and key games at Baylor, at Air Force, versus SMU, versus BYU and at Boise State will be the only ways we find out for sure.
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Ohio State
4 of 8
To begin with, let’s throw out there some of the raw data we would have been discussing if not for all the recent drama in Columbus Ohio.
The Buckeyes return 13 starters from last season including QB Terrelle Pryor and other key offensive skill positions but took huge hits to their defensive back seven including the loss of two starting linebackers and four starting members of the secondary.
This basic set of facts is obviously convoluted and complicated by the “Tattoo Five” missing the first five games of the season and the ongoing woes of Coach Tressel (which may keep him off the field permanently).
It hardly seems worth conducting yet another analysis of the cause and effect of the off-field issues with those on field especially given the fact that we don’t know how the NCAA investigations and hearings will shake out later this summer.
At the end of the day it’s absolutely safe to say that top-ranked Ohio State is difficult to have any confidence in going into 2011; this is a fact despite how it happened or what will happen next.
Texas
5 of 8
Can heaping helpings of talent, speed, facilities and money guarantee success?
Indeed, can financial blessings, having your pick of coaches and the best recruits equal wins and championships?
Well these were among the hypotheses that were seriously tested in Austin in 2010 when the Longhorns almost unbelievably dropped to 5-7, their worst offering since going 4-7 in 1997.
Texas returns 15 starters in 2011 and key losses include a couple of wide receivers, three offensive linemen, DE Sam Acho, NB Aaron Williams and two starting members of the secondary.
But the big questions at Texas have less to do with personnel (remember, these cows are stacked) than leadership both on and off the field.
Was 5-7 indicative of what to expect in the latter part of Mack Brown’s tenure or instead do the nine straight 10-plus win seasons from 2001-09 truly reflect on how he will finish his career at Texas?
Las Vegas has Texas at 20/1 odds at winning the whole enchilada (the BCS championship) in 2011, which is the eighth best odds of anyone nationally.
Despite the confidence of the odds makers and preseason pollsters, you can’t help but wonder how confident anyone should really be about the Longhorns in 2011.
Florida
6 of 8
When you stop to consider the Gators coming into 2011 it’s virtually impossible not to immediately be drawn into a discussion of Will Muschamp, Charlie Weis and the changing of the coaching guard in Gainesville.
Indeed, what effect will the exit of Urban Meyer (who was 65-15 in six seasons) and the entrance of untested Muschamp have on Florida’s storied football program?
Though it’s absolutely worth discussing the coaching situation, what of the loss of four starting members of the offensive line and four starting members of the defensive line?
And what about the exit of two starting linebackers and two starting safeties?
Is it possible that while we analyze leadership changes and just assume that Florida will reload as they always do (which is highly possible) are we overlooking some serious attrition from a personnel standpoint?
Finally, what if the combination of the two together spell utter disaster at Florida; such as the Gators first sub eight win game since Ron Zook’s last season in 2004?
Notre Dame
7 of 8
Is momentum enough?
Is Brian Kelly really that good?
Do 19 returning starters equal success?
The Notre Dame Haters shriek (with well rehearsed disgust), “No!” while the Irish lovers yelp confidently, “Yes!”
And everyone in between the two . . . well, there aren’t any people between the two, you either love them or hate them, right?
Nevertheless, nobody is going to believe the hype or buy into the propaganda that this is finally the Irish’s “year” until they prove they can win 10 games (and then do it consistently year after year).
And ten-plus victories absolutely mean faster, tougher teams with a big dose of swagger.
Brian Kelly is the real deal but are the 2011 Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
They will have to earn our confidence.
Florida State
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The big questions as to whether or not FSU can finally return to being a national championship contender involve EJ Manuel, overall consistency and the linebacker position.
Incoming starting QB EJ Manuel has shown great promise thus far but at the end of the day this is a guy who has thrown only six career touchdown passes but has managed to toss a whopping 10 picks.
You can’t argue the fact that Manuel is talented but what if he is not truly consistent and effective when he gets all the reps?
As far as consistency is concerned this is the aspect of the 2010 team that should make people wonder; in other words, which Florida State team will show up on Saturdays?
Will it be the team that beat a good South Carolina squad in the Chic-fil-A Bowl or will it be the team that lost to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship?
To further illustrate will it be the team that got thumped by Oklahoma in Norman or will it instead be the group that manhandled Miami (FL) on the road?
Lastly, even though FSU is stacked defensively and should continue to improve in DC Mark Stoops’ second season in Tallahassee how much will the loss of starting linebackers Mister Alexander and Kendall Smith effect the Seminoles?
Florida State appears to have many of the critical stars aligned to make a run: the schedule, the signature game against Oklahoma, the returning starters and some momentum from last season, but what if in reality they are a few pieces short of solving the puzzle in 2011?
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
