2011 Statistical Predictions for All 32 Teams' Starting Quarterbacks
Who will the best quarterback be during the 2011 NFL season?
Some might say it's impossible to know that information, but we disagree.
By looking at 2010 statistics and projecting changes based on roster moves thus far, we are able to see a clear picture of how every starting quarterback will perform during 2011.
For accuracy purposes, we did predict any free-agent signings or trades. For instance, Kevin Kolb is likely to be traded, but we do not know where, so his statistics were not predicted.
And if these numbers seem a little wild to you, we did, in most cases, predict an improvement for all quarterbacks based on limited workouts this offseason for offensive lines and defenses. We see the passing game "coming back" strongest after the lockout.
Also, all highly-drafted rookies without veterans ahead of them are predicted to start.
So, with nothing more to preface, here we go.
Buffalo Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick
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Ryan Fitzpatrick is the clear-cut favorite to start in Buffalo during the 2011 season; a season during which we believe he will play well enough to bring Buffalo out of the NFL's cellar.
While Buffalo does need to add talent at tight end to help Fitzpatrick, the play of Stevie Johnson is good enough to see an incline on Fitzpatrick's statistics.
As the offensive line and targets in Buffalo mature and improve, so will Fitzpatrick.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,200 yards, 28 TD, 14 INT, 57-percent completion
Miami Dolphins: Chad Henne
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The Dolphins were rumored to be trying to add a quarterback to compete with Chad Henne this season, but to date, that has not happened. Miami could try to add another quarterback via free agency or a trade once the CBA is finalized, but at this point, we have to believe Henne will be the starter in Miami for 2011.
With a fresh running game headed by Daniel Thomas and a focused Brandon Marshall at receiver, Henne should enjoy success unseen so far in his career.
Another positive is that Henne has been leading player workouts in Miami this offseason.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,500 yards, 27 TD, 14 INT, 62-percent completion
New England Patriots: Tom Brady
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Brady's 2010 season was simply fantastic and led to his being named unanimous NFL MVP. His 2011 season could be even better.
Brady will have better options behind him at running back and a full season of experience from tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
Brady has scary talent and could be hitting his stride.
Projected 2011 stats: 4,100 yards, 39 TD, seven INT, 68-percent completion
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New York Jets: Mark Sanchez
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Mark Sanchez has led the Jets to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons, but he hasn't done so with staggering statistics.
Some will say that Sanchez' third year will be his coming out party; others that what you see is simply what you get.
Sanchez may also be facing a season without Pro Bowl wide receivers Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,400 yards, 22 TD, 13 INT, 56 percent completion
Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco
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While Mark Sanchez has led the Jets to two playoff appearances in his two seasons, Joe Flacco has led Baltimore to three-straight playoff appearances in his three years under center in Baltimore.
Flacco has never been a great statistical quarterback, largely due to the talent around him. With Anquan Boldin fully experienced in the offense and changes made at offensive coordinator, Flacco could enjoy marked improvement in 2011.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,700 yards, 29 TD, 12 INT, 64-percent completion
Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton
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Cincinnati drafted Andy Dalton with their second-round pick and will install him as their successor to Carson Palmer immediately.
Palmer, who has requested a trade at the threat of retiring otherwise, will not be playing in Cincinnati any time soon.
Dalton has a high-accuracy skill set and will be a great fit in Jay Gruden's West Coast offense. He also has established weapons in Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham and first-rounder A.J. Green to help him get ready for the NFL.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,300 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT, 61-percent completion
Cleveland Browns: Colt McCoy
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Colt McCoy hopes to turn a handful of successful starts in his rookie season into a lengthy career in Cleveland.
President of Football Operations Mike Holmgren, general manager Tom Heckert and head coach Pat Shurmur all think so.
McCoy is leading workouts, getting his teammates ready for the 2011 season if/when it takes place.
McCoy has the talent to win, but still lacks the elite wide receiver around him to show a great statistical jump in 2011.
Unless you believe in Greg Little.
Projected 2011 stats: 2,900 yards, 23 TD, 11 INT, 65-percent completion
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger
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Ben Roethlisberger has done it all in his short career, winning two Super Bowls and losing one other. He has the talent around him to see big numbers in 2011 if the Steelers rely more on the passing game than they have in years past.
Big Ben will put up MVP-caliber numbers in 2011 and will see an extended run in the playoffs.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,900 yards, 32 TD, 15 INT, 65-percent completion
Houston Texans: Matt Schaub
9 of 32
The Houston Texans enjoy a high-powered offense that is based on the right arm of Matt Schaub. With Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and an expected addition at wide receiver through free agency, the Texans' passing attack could take off in 2011.
Schaub also benefits from a solid running game, which could prevent his numbers from being as high as you may expect from the Texans' offense.
Projected 2011 stats: 4150 yards, 31 TD, 12 INT, 64-percent completion
Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning
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According to our good friends at Pro Football Reference, 2010 was the first time in Peyton Manning's entire career that he was not ranked in the top eight quarterbacks when it comes to QB rating.
While Manning ranked No. 10 overall in 2010, he also posted career highs in passing attempts, completions and the third-highest interception number since his rookie season.
We believe that Manning is slipping with age. His 2011 numbers will show a further decline.
Projected 2011 stats: 4,200 yards, 30 TD, 20 INT, 66 percent completion
Jacksonville Jaguars: David Garrard
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David Garrard may spend the 2011 season trying to fight off first-rounder Blaine Gabbert, whom the Jaguars traded up six spots to select.
Garrard is still the planned starter at quarterback for the 2011 season as Gabbert will need time to develop as an NFL quarterback, but he will be on a short leash.
If Garrard plays the entire season, we will see the pressure of this effecting his game.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,200 yards, 22 TD, 16 INT, 61-percent completion
Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker
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Jake Locker will be handed the starting job in 2011 almost by default.
With Vince Young on the outs and Kerry Collins a free agent, the job in Tennessee may be his to lose.
Locker will struggle as a rookie, even though he started the last four years at Washington and is a favorite of offensive coordinator Chris Palmer.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,100 yards, 15 TD, 18 INT, 54 percent completion
Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton
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No one knows what to expect at quarterback in Denver next season.
The quarterback job will be available in an open competition, and it's anyone's ballgame at this time.
We are projected that Kyle Orton will win the job on the strength of his experience and ability to win ball games in 2011. This leaves Tim Tebow and Brady Quinn as backups or part-time players.
Orton has the arm and experience to really put up impressive numbers with Denver's talented group of receivers.
Projected 2011 stats: 4,400 yards, 35 TD, 12 INT, 63 percent completion
Kansas City Chiefs: Matt Cassel
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How will Matt Cassel follow-up his Pro Bowl 2010 season? With an All-Pro quality year.
Cassel will have the advantage of an extra season under his belt under Todd Haley but also added talent in the form of first-round pick Jonathan Baldwin.
With Baldwin, Dwayne Bowe and Tony Moeaki all expected to star in Kansas City next fall good things are on the horizon in Kansas City.
Projected 2011 stats: 4,300 yards, 32 TD, 12 INT, 64 percent completion
Oakland Raiders: Jason Campbell
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Jason Campbell may very well be the most under-the-radar starting quarterback in the NFL currently. While superstar numbers are not expected from Campbell, he is capable of putting up impressive statistics.
Campbell has Zach Miller at tight end along with Jacoby Ford at wide receiver, both talented players who are on the verge of breaking out.
Unfortunately for Campbell, the Raiders play in the AFC West, a conference with talented defenses across the board.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,350 yards, 18 TD, 18 INT, 56 percent completion
San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers
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Philip Rivers is considered by some as a top five quarterback in the NFL. After the 2011 season, we believe everyone will agree that Rivers is indeed a top five player.
Rivers will hope that the Chargers are able to re-sign wide receivers Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd, otherwise the 2011 season could be disappointing for Rivers and Charger fans.
Projected 2011 stats: 4,700 yards, 33 TD, 13 INT, 66 percent completion
Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo
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Dallas' Tony Romo has the potential to put together a very, very good season if he can stay healthy in 2011.
Romo has an All-Star cast around him with wide receivers Miles Austin, Roy Williams and Dez Bryant and tight ends Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett; there are no excuses if Romo fails to produce gaudy numbers.
The offensive line in Dallas will also be improved, giving Romo more time to operate and produce.
Projected 2011 stats: 4,400 yards, 35 TD, 18 INT, 65 percent completion
New York Giants: Eli Manning
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Eli Manning is never going to put up an amazing touchdown-to-interception ratio; it's just not who he is. What he can do is push the ball up the field and produce great yards and yards per completion numbers.
It's those dang interceptions that will keep Manning from ever reaching the NFL elite.
Manning's 2011 season could get help from Plaxico Burress, who is expected to be released from prison in early June.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,900 yards, 29 TD, 20 INT, 61 percent completion
Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Vick
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Michael Vick doesn't just hurt you with his arm. You have to worry about his legs too.
Vick will put up impressive statistics when it comes to the passing game, and we expect him to continue to grow in that regard under Andy Reid.
We also believe Vick will again hurt defenses with his feet, which ultimately opens up the passing game.
Projected 2011 stats: 4,200 yards, 33 TD, 16 INT, 62 percent completion
Washington Redskins: John Beck
20 of 32
It is almost a running joke at this point that the Redskins coach Mike Shanahan may actually enter the 2011 season with John Beck as his starting quarterback.
We actually hope he does.
Beck is not as bad as some may say, but he's certainly not anywhere near a first or second-tier quarterback.
Projected 2011 stats: 2,500 yards, 18 TD, 21 INT, 57 percent completion
Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler
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Jay Cutler's second season under Mike Martz will be a dang good one.
Cutler will see amazing success in Chicago this season...if the Bears can find him a No. 1 wide receiver to work with.
While that player may be Earl Bennett or Johnny Knox, it is unlikely that either will step up as a truly legitimate threat. However, combined the two could do major damage.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,750 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT, 61percent completion
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford
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Should Matthew Stafford ever play a full season in Detroit he could set the NFL on fire.
With Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew already installed on offense and the additions of Mikel Leshoure and Titus Young through the 2011 draft, the Lions have some major talent assembled on offense.
Stafford has the tools to do damage against NFL defenses but he must stay healthy. Through two seasons, Stafford has played in just 13 games.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,800 yards, 27 TD, 14 INT, 63 percent completion
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
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Could Aaron Rodgers parlay his Super Bowl win into a regular season MVP performance in 2011? We definitely think so.
Rodgers returns almost his entire offense intact if James Jones chooses to re-sign, and if not, they drafted Randall Cobb to take reps and help on special teams.
The Packers have a very deep roster loaded with elite players. Rodgers statistics should show that.
Projected 2011 stats: 4,300 yards, 37 TD, 10 INT, 65 percent completion
Minnesota Vikings: Christian Ponder
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Christian Ponder was drafted to be the Vikings quarterback of the future. They may need him to be the quarterback of right now.
The Vikings return Joe Webb and Rhett Bomar at the position, but neither is capable of filling in long-term while Ponder acclimates to the NFL.
One option is to simply turn Ponder lose on the NFL, much like the Rams did with Sam Bradford last year.
A notable difference between Bradford and Ponder is the talent level assembled on the Vikings roster. With Sidney Rice, Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin in place, Ponder has Pro Bowl talent at key skill positions.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,300 yards, 21 TD, 17 INT, 63 percent completion
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan
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Matt Ryan's emergence as the best young quarterback in the NFL begun when he was drafted. His status as a top 10 quarterback will be solidified in 2011.
Ryan has an All-Star cast of skilled players, incredible talent and a cool demeanor that will help him as the Falcons advance deeper in the playoffs.
We're predicting big things for Ryan and the Falcons in 2011. Like an MVP award and Super Bowl appearance.
Projected 2011 stats: 4,200 yards, 41 TD, 13 INT, 64 percent completion
Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton
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Cam Newton will be thrown to the wolves during his first season in the NFL, as he is the expected starter after being drafted No. 1 overall.
Newton can hurt defenses with his arm and legs equally, and we expect that like mobile quarterbacks before him, he will rely heavily on his legs while he learns to read defenses and make the right calls.
Newton does not have much around him either. Star wide receiver Steve Smith has asked for a trade and will not be back. This leaves Newton without a true No. 1 wide receiver.
Struggles are expected for Newton and Carolina in 2011.
Projected 2011 stats: 2,850 yards, 12 TD, 18 INT, 54 percent completion
New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees
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Drew Brees struggled in 2010 as interceptions and accuracy problems plagued his season.
In 2011, Brees will rebound with a renewed focus on the running game and a healthy cast around him.
Brees was largely considered a top three quarterback before the down season in 2010. His ability to rebound will go a long way in determining if he deserves that ranking.
Projected 2011 stats: 4,850 yards, 40 TD, 15 INT, 68 percent completion
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman
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Josh Freeman is big, strong and has a rocket arm. He also has talented receivers like Mike Williams to help drive up his statistics.
Freeman is quickly gaining a name for himself as a comeback expert and all-around great quarterback. We tend to agree.
In 2011, we expect Freeman to make the next step toward All-Pro status and continue to impress.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,600 yards, 28 TD, nine INT, 65 percent completion
Arizona Cardinals: John Skelton
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We believe the Arizona Cardinals will sign a free agent or trade for a quarterback to start over John Skelton, however, since we are not predicting any roster changes, the Cardinals are stuck with Skelton.
This is not all bad. Skelton showed some potential when called to duty during the 2010 season. He has the body type and skill set to become an NFL quarterback with enough coaching.
Skelton also has Larry Fitzgerald and Early Doucet to throw to.
Projected 2011 stats: 2,750 yards, 21 TD, 19 INT, 59 percent completion
St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford
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Sam Bradford lived up to his being drafted as the No. 1 overall player last year. During his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, Bradford led the Rams well and showed he has the talent to last as an NFL starting quarterback.
One big question surrounding Bradford before the 2010 draft was his ability to stay healthy for an entire season, something he did in 2010 behind a very good offensive line.
While Bradford is ready to explode, St. Louis could still use another big target at wide receiver and perhaps an upgrade at tight end.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,550 yards, 28 TD, 15 INT, 62 percent completion
San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith
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The San Francisco 49ers drafted Colin Kaepernick in the second round as a potential future quarterback under head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Until Kaepernick is ready to play, the team will rely on former No. 1 overall player Alex Smith, who is a free agent but has been given a playbook this summer.
Smith had a ton of talent coming out of Utah, but he has yet to show that talent when working under seven different offensive coordinators in San Francisco.
The talent is there on offense for Smith to do well. The onus is on Smith to lead this offense.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,400 yards, 24 TD, 15 INT, 63 percent completion
Seattle Seahawks: Charlie Whitehurst
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If veteran Matt Hasselbeck leaves the Seattle Seahawks as a free agent this summer, the ball will be handed to Charlie Whitehurst to lead the team in 2011.
Whitehurst is not without talent. Pete Carroll thought enough of him to swap picks in the 2010 second round and send an additional third-round pick to San Diego for him last year.
Whitehurst showed some potential in two starts during the Seahawks 7-9 season.
If given the ball and starting job, Whitehurst does have talent around him on offense to produce.
Projected 2011 stats: 3,100 yards, 20 TD, 14 INT, 59 percent completion
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