Alabama Football: What Are the Odds Bama's New QB Outdoes McElroy's Numbers?

Larry Burton (Syndicated Writer)

Last year Greg McElroy ended his senior season with some heady numbers. He ended the year 223 for 313. That came out to a 70.9 completion ratio.

Not bad.

He threw 20 touchdowns with only five interceptions. That's the kind of touchdown to interception ratio a coach wants from his starter. He also ended the year with a quarterback rating of 169.0 and a per yard average of 9.5 yards.

Except for the per yard average, those are all good numbers.

Alabama is a predominately running team and when they pass, they are usually the short routes that get first downs or intermediate gains. They do however have a great completion ratio for those rare times they do throw the bombs, they just don't do it often enough for most fans.

Last year Saban knew he had some problems in the secondary and a ball control offense kept the opposing offense on the bench. He was content to run long time consuming scoring drives to control the game.

This year, things have changed in Tuscaloosa.

Saban will use the running game to ease the new quarterback, who most expect to be A.J. McCarron, into a comfort zone, at least for the first few games. But as his comfort and confidence increases, Saban has mentioned more than once the need to increase the number of "Explosive" plays as well as "Big Plays."

Saban started grumbling about this in 2008 and 2009 when the defense was so good, but talked less about it last year.

Saban's explanation of an "Explosive" play is a run of over 13 yards and a pass play of over 17 yards and a big play is a run of over 16 yards and a pass of over 21. It is his goal to have a minimum of seven big plays or nine explosive plays each game.

If this defense plays up to expectations, this will allow Saban to loosen up opposing team's defenses by mixing in more intermediate to long passes this season. With a lead and a solid defense, Saban has hinted that he does not intend to let the offense go overly conservative and points to the blowout win in the Capital One Bowl Game where they simply continued to pile up yardage and points on Michigan State.

With both McCarron and Sims having a quicker release and stronger arm than McElroy, you could expect to see Saban giving them the opportunity to put more passes in the air this year, especially with the ability that Richardson, Lacy and Hart all have shown as receivers coming out of the backfield.

Expect to see this year's quarterback numbers end up surpassing last year's.

Most didn't think this would happen in McElroy's first year either, but he put up much better numbers than his experienced predecessor.

The same could and should happen this year.

Hanks is played big in the spring practices and looked like a veteran senior ready to make a real mark in this, his last season, and the same could be said for Marquis Maze. Both of these players, who usually run deeper routes that Julio Jones did last year, will be an early season target and quick favorite of the new Alabama quarterback. That should help in the bigger play stats.

And if Kevin Norwood or another receiver steps up to fill a good portion of Julio Jones productivity, then the passing game could really be a huge asset to the team and keep the run defenses the Tide may see, be kept a bit more honest.

Look for Alabama to pass for well over 3,000 yards this season, a number that will edge out the numbers that McElroy put up last year.