College Football 2011: ACC Post-Spring Preseason Power Rankings
Though the 2011 season is still over three months away, it's never too early to talk about college football, or create inane lists. Honestly, ranking teams in May is an exercise in futility, as things can happen in the seemingly insignificant summer months that can alter the landscape of the entire season (see North Carolina last year).
And, as always in college football, there are many players yet unseen at this level who will be contributing for every team in the league. There is no way to know how new players will develop, or how teams will come together, but, with all the time spent reading about spring practice and checking far too many blogs and local news articles, it would all seem like I waste if I didn't translate the knowledge into something constructive.
Without further ado, here's the post-spring power rankings for the Atlantic Coast Conference, composed by me, and likely disagreed with by 11 out of every 12 readers.
1. Virginia Tech Hokies
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Until further notice, the Hokies remain atop the ACC in football. Some would argue that Florida State has a more promising outlook, and will be ranked higher at the onset of the season (both of which are true), but this is a power ranking, and anyone who's watched ACC football over the past seven years knows where the power has resided.
The four ACC championships are not even as impressive as the fact that the Hokies have finished as the highest-ranked team in the ACC (in the AP poll) six out of those seven years—the lone exception being one spot behind a Wake Forest team they beat in 2006. The ACC has belonged to Virginia Tech in football, plain and simple.
With regards to 2011, the outlook is bright for several reasons. First, the schedule is a joke. An absolute joke. According to most poll projections, the Hokies won't have a ranked team on the schedule at the season's beginning. There should be plenty of time for the many new players to assimilate, and there are enough talented returners (Jayron Hosley, Bruce Taylor, David Wilson, all the receivers) to carry the load against the likes of Appalachian State until they do.
More importantly, there are positive vibes coming out of spring practice. Logan Thomas is looking like the real deal, and players like Tariq Edwards and the many sophomore defensive linemen are coming along swiftly.
Florida State fans may disagree with me, and with reason, but 44-33 tells me that Virginia Tech still holds the power in the ACC.
2. Florida State Seminoles
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Talent-wise, Florida State looks like the best team in the ACC. E.J. Manuel came on at the end of the season. He was 23-of-31 for 288 yards and a TD in the ACC championship, with one of his two interceptions coming off a tipped pass. He played even better in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, going 11-of-15 for 82 yards and a touchdown.
Having a combined completion percentage of 74 percent against the defenses of Virginia Tech and South Carolina is nothing to sneeze at. Add to that the fact that the Seminoles have 18 starters coming back and capped their fourth straight year of a top-10 recruiting class, and things look bright in Tallahassee.
Mark Stoops, of a somewhat well-known coaching family, seems to have the defense coming together in his second season. He coached a fairly talented crew of defensive backs at rival Miami (Ed Reed, Sean Taylor, Phillip Buchanon, Antrel Rolle), and is now looking to develop the same kind of talent on the Seminoles defense with guys like Brandon Jenkins and Greg Reid.
The Seminoles look primed for a return to the glory days of the '90s, when they were ranked in the top five at the end of every year. Whether or not we see that kind of ascension is left to be seen.
Though he may appear to be on the verge of becoming one, I'm still not convinced Jimbo Fisher is a great coach. He has to prove it, and September 17th against Oklahoma seems like the time to do it.
3. North Carolina Tar Heels
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One benefit of the very unfortunate situation that kept 13 players off the field last season for the Tar Heels was that young players got playing experience that they wouldn't have otherwise acquired. The defense should be stellar. With the duo of Quinton Coples and Donte Paige-Moss, the Heels might have the best defensive line in the country. Zach Brown (not the one with a band) is a very talented linebacker as well. Even with the loss of All-ACC Bruce Carter, the front seven should be staunch.
However, questions remain for North Carolina. The offensive line, anchored by three solid veterans (Cam Holland, James Hurst and Jonathan Cooper) and the wide receivers (Erik Highsmith and Dwight Jones) are set, but there is uncertainty at running back, and quarterback Bryn Renner is as untested as they come. The offense will have to mesh for the Tar Heels to find more success in 2011. An easy opening schedule should allow time for adjustment and development.
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4. Miami Hurricanes
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Call me crazy, but I believe the Hurricanes will have a good season in 2011. I'm of the philosophy that you can't have top-20 recruiting classes every year (as the 'Canes did from '07-'10) without bringing a ton of good players into your program. Although, Miami has seemed recently to find new and varying ways to squander talent—something it showed no signs of putting a stop to last season.
Despite his efforts, the team never came together under Randy Shannon. New coach Al Golden, with his team breakfasts and whatnot, professes to have brought some cohesion and leadership to the Hurricanes football team. And, like someone suffering from short-term memory loss, I'm going to believe him.
The main hurdle for Miami is getting one of the quarterbacks to step up. Both Jacory Harris and Stephen Morris struggled at times in 2010. If one of them would just take over, he would find that he has a veritable stable of running backs (Lamar Miller, Storm Johnson, Mike James) and a very talented receiver in Travis Benjamin.
The defense, which ranked third in the ACC in 2010, returns eight starters. Brandon Harris and Allen Bailey will be tough to replace, but a lot of talent is returning, including All-ACC players Ray-Ray Armstrong and Sean Spence.
If the quarterback situation is finally rectified, the Hurricanes could be poised for a breakout season in 2011; but that's a big if...
5. North Carolina State Wolfpack
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Wolfpack fans received a bit of a shock on April 29th when Tom O'Brien announced that he was tired of Russell Wilson's Deion Sanders-like career path, and let him go in favor of Mike Glennon. Along with their All-ACC quarterback, the Wolfpack lost top receivers Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams, as well as All-ACC tight end George Bryan and two offensive linemen. But leading rusher Mustafa Greene returns, and Glennon has been getting rave reviews in spring practice.
The defense took far less of a hit, returning eight starters. Led by Audie Cole and J.R. Sweezy, the D should be improved in 2011, which is a nice realization when seeing that they were actually fifth in the ACC in total defense last season, despite the fact that it seems like every game for the 'Pack was a shootout in 2010.
Coming off an impressive 23-7 beatdown of a solid West Virginia team in the Champs Sports Bowl, the Wolfpack should be an ACC title contender again in 2011 if 1) Glennon is the great quarterback Tom O'Brien is telling us he is, and 2) The ancillary receivers from a year ago step up and fill the gaps left by Spencer and Williams.
O'Brien did a solid job of reviving a bad Boston College program, and after three rough years starting out at NC State, I believe he will follow up an excellent 9-4 season with another of the like. Though I'm still not certain that releasing Russell Wilson was a good idea...
6. Maryland Terrapins
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There's a lot to like about Maryland in 2011. The Terrapins return leading rusher Davin Meggett and ACC Rookie of the Year quarterback Danny O'Brien. Although top receivers Adrian Cannon and Torrey Smith graduated, the murmurs about the new receivers in spring practice have been very positive.
However, the Terrapins have a tough schedule, both in and out of conference. They play West Virginia and Notre Dame, both of which are likely to be ranked. In the ACC, they have road games at Florida State and NC State. The one break they have is avoiding a matchup with defending champ Virginia Tech.
It'll be interesting to see how new coach Randy Edsall handles this team in his first year. It's been a long drought for Maryland since Ralph Friedgen began the decade with three consecutive 10-win seasons. There's no doubt this team has talent, but with a first-year coach it can go either way.
Edsall had remarkable success at Connecticut, guiding the Huskies all the way through their transition into Division I-A football (it was still called that back then, so I'm not using the stupid new names) so I wouldn't be shocked if Maryland surprises some people this season.
7. Boston College Eagles
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Boston College had an amazing turnaround in 2010, rallying from a miserable 2-5 start to win its next five games and earn bowl eligibility, before losing a close game to a very good, ranked Nevada team in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. The Eagles return 14 starters in 2011, including their starting quarterback (Chase Rettig), running back (Montel Harris), wide receivers and both punter and kicker.
Luke Kuechly, who might be the best linebacker in the country, anchors the defense that returns seven starters, defensive end Max Holloway and cornerback Donnie Fletcher among them. Boston College was last in the ACC in total offense in 2010, but first in total defense. The defense should be just as stout—despite the loss of Mark Herzlich—and the offense should be much improved with just about every skill position player coming back.
The one qualm I have with regard to the Eagles is due to their tough schedule. In conference, their four road games are Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland and Miami, and they have to host Florida State and NC State. Out of conference, they play three bowl teams from a year ago: Notre Dame, Central Florida and Northwestern. In order to have continued success in his third season, coach Frank Spaziani will have to find a way to lead the Eagles to wins in close games.
8. Clemson Tigers
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Clemson is the perennial underachiever in ACC football. It's really astounding how much talent the Tigers can squander each season as they limp to a seven-win or eight-win season and an irrelevant bowl.
They come into 2011 fresh off their third top-20 recruiting class in the last four years, but it remains to be seen if Dabo Swinney will ever do anything with his talent. Last season, Clemson held a 17-point lead over eventual national champion Auburn, and then blew that game and limped to a 6-7 finish.
Clemson lost a considerable amount of talent, with the departures of Da’Quan Bowers, Kyle Parker, Jamie Harper, Jarvis Jenkins and DeAndre McDaniel. Quarterback Tajh Boyd will take over behind center, but he had limited experience last season. Receiver DeAndre Hopkins and tailback Andre Ellington return, along with 11 other starters.
Overall, Clemson has a few solid players on offense, with Hopkins, Ellington and All-ACC tight end Dwayne Allen. However, I don't think the Tigers can sustain such heavy losses, especially on defense, without seeing negative effects. And when a 6-7 team endures heavy losses, the outlook is usually bleak. Until Dabo proves me wrong, I expect to be underwhelmed by Clemson.
T9. Duke Blue Devils
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I've been high on Duke ever since the Blue Devils announced the hiring of David Cutcliffe. I was immediately convinced that he could develop a program akin to what Jim Grobe has done at Wake Forest. However, the going has been slow, which is not particularly surprising, considering the mess he walked into when he arrived in Durham.
His first two years showed a marked improvement, winning four conference games at a school that hadn't won a conference game in three straight seasons. The Blue Devils won four games in 2008, then just missed bowl eligibility at 5-7 in 2009. They experienced a bit of a backslide last season, falling to 3-9, but they lost four of those games by six points or fewer.
2011 could be the year Cutcliffe takes Duke to a bowl game. Despite three very tough games against Stanford, Florida State and Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils have a schedule that appears to have mostly winnable games.
With 14 returners coming back, including quarterback Sean Renfree (who had an excellent spring), their top two receivers and leading rusher Desmond Scott, the Blue Devils have their best outlook of the decade in 2011. Eight starters return on an offense that ranked seventh in the ACC in 2010. Both the starting punter and kicker return, as do six players on defense. This could finally be the year that David Cutcliffe brings Duke back to (at least some) relevance in college football.
T9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
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Georgia Tech was a disappointing 6-7 as well last season, but there were some mitigating factors. The Yellow Jackets lost four games by single digits last season. Moreover, they lost four out their last five after starting quarterback Josh Nesbitt went down early in the Virginia Tech game.
The bad news is Nesbitt is not coming back, and fill-in Tevin Washington struggled mightily down the stretch with a 41 percent completion percentage. He played so badly in the spring game (five turnovers) that I'm not even certain his job is secure anymore.
Top rusher Anthony Allen, who had 1,316 yards last season, is also gone. Running backs Roddy Jones and Orson Smith return, as does most of the offensive line but the Yellow Jackets have to replace center Sean Bedford.
The defense, which wasn't particularly good last year (ninth in the ACC in scoring and total defense), only returns five starters. Whether or not that is a good thing is left to be seen, as some fresh faces could fit in better to Al Groh's 3-4. Also, among the few returners includes the entire defensive line, which should be much improved.
Overall, I don't much like the Yellow Jackets outlook in 2011. Replacing the starting quarterback, running back and center in a triple-option offense is going to lead to a drop-off in offensive production for sure. The defense was startlingly bad last year, and probably won't be that much improved with so many starters to replace. Paul Johnson is a good coach, and will return the Yellow Jackets to ACC title contention soon, but not this season.
11. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
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When Jim Grobe implies that his players have not been displaying the work ethic expected of major college football players, you know the program is at a low point. Wake Forest had a miserable season in 2010, following two wins at the season's beginning with an appalling nine straight losses. Of those nine losses, only two were by single digits.
Quarterback Tanner Price had a miserable 2010 campaign. He averaged a measly 5.6 yards per attempt, and his seven touchdowns were eclipsed by eight interceptions. It's hard to tell if his struggles were more attributable to his own shortcomings, or a lack of support.
The offensive line returns four starters, but new center Garrick Williams struggled in spring practice. Running back Josh Harris will have to find consistency in 2011 if the Demon Deacons are to find any success. The Wake Forest defense returns nine starters, including the entire secondary, and should subsequently be much improved.
I believe Jim Grobe is an excellent coach, and will right the ship eventually...but not this season.
12. Virginia Cavaliers
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If it weren't for the win over Miami, the 2010 UVA football season could have qualified as a total loss. The Cavaliers followed a 3-9 season with a 4-8 season. Not the kind of improvement they expected when they canned Al Groh in favor of Mike London. The Cavs return 17 starters, but after watching last season it's debatable whether that's a good or a bad thing. And among the few positions requiring replacements are quarterback, running back and wide receiver.
Virginia has a plethora of quarterbacks in the stable, but unfortunately there have been no developments in spring practice to distinguish one from the pack. Other than Perry Jones, there is no experience in the backfield. The defense, which returns mostly intact, should be solid. Cam Johnson had 6.5 sacks last season, and corner Chase Minnifield was a first-team All-ACC selection.
The offense shows little to no promise. Whether or not the Cavs crawl out of the ACC cellar is largely dependent on the development of the offensive skill players. One of the quarterbacks separating himself would be a start. As for now, the woeful Cavs, the first ACC team to lose consecutive games to Duke since the Gipper was calling plays, remain at the bottom of the barrel.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
