Vancouver Canucks' Stanley Cup Final Appearance Will Hurt NHL's Momentum

Ever since the lockout ended, the NHL has been blessed with young stars like Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin that have revived once-dead markets. Attendance figures in Pittsburgh, Washington, and Chicago were abysmal prior to the lockout. The NHL banked on these stars and were also lucky to have popular teams in the Stanley Cup Finals which helped ratings grow and eventually lead to a record TV deal with NBC and Versus a few months ago.

NHL Stanley Cup Final ratings for each series had a downward trend from 1995 until the lockout. Then, straight out of the lockout, when the NHL was doing everything in its power to right the ship, they were faced with two Stanley Cup matchups that brought in small ratings. In 2006, Edmonton and Carolina produced a 1.8 household rating. This was lower than anything pre-lockout from 1995-2005. The year after in 2007, Anaheim and Ottawa produced an even lower household rating at 1.2.

In the three following years, the NHL saw its ratings increase every year.

Why?

Great matchups. Star players. Big markets.

2008 and 2009 saw Sidney Crosby's Pittsburgh Penguins play against one of America's most popular teams in the Detroit Red Wings. Ratings more than doubled from 2007 in the first matchup with a 2.6 rating. The following year, Game 7 between Detroit and Pittsburgh brought in eight million viewers on average and this was the highest number of viewers for an NHL game since Game 6 of the 1973 Finals.

Finally, last year, Philadelphia and Chicago, two hockey mad markets, outdrew the 2009 finals. The deciding Game 6 had the highest overnight rating in 36 years.

This year, however, despite an increase in the regular season ratings and some solid series ratings in the postseason, the elite showcase event for the NHL might heavily decline. After a record breaking performance last season, we are one Vancouver win away from having a Canadian team in the Stanley Cup Final.

Having Vancouver in the final means we automatically lose one U.S. market and this is a major blow to the NHL and NBC. Also, when the Canadian team in the final is not Montreal or Toronto, who are historically popular teams and have a huge following in the United States, it hurts even more. What will be even more detrimental to the ratings is if Tampa Bay also makes it to the finals.

We'll have our fourth small-market U.S. team vs Canadian team Stanley Cup Final since 2004. And it's these series that generally draw the lowest ratings. This will be a huge blow to the NHL's momentum which has picked up heavily because of great Stanley Cup Finals in the last three years and the booming success of the Winter Classic.

The fact of the matter is that the small-market U.S. team vs Canadian team series' have drawn the lowest ratings. Edmonton vs Carolina, Ottawa vs Anaheim, and even 2004's Calgary vs Tampa Bay were the three lowest rated finals in the last 15 years.

The NHL can take solace in the fact that they have their $200 million TV deal already wrapped up for the next 10 years with NBC and Versus. The NHL is also praying that Boston wins their series out east. Boston, like Chicago and Philadelphia, is a great American city that will help garner ratings. Boston is a very passionate sports town and the Bruins have a strong following throughout the country.

Also, Vancouver has several stars in the Sedin twins and a world class goaltender in Roberto Luongo. Their proximity to Seattle also means the ratings in the Great Northwest will be up. But quite frankly, most of the U.S. population lives in the Central and Eastern timezones, and without a powerhouse from those regions, it's almost certain that the NHL's ratings will drop this June.

As mentioned before, Boston can give it a little boost, and even if Tampa Bay makes it, the fact that the NHL's popularity has grown over the last few years means that there is no way the NHL will generate ratings as low as 2007's abysmal 1.2 rating. We won't have that, but it will be a significant drop from last year's rousing success.

Some may argue that one of the most successful Stanley Cup Finals was in 1994 when Vancouver played against the New York Rangers in an epic seven game series. But this series had New York involved. New York is the largest North American market and it helped generate the whole USA vs Canada headlines. Tampa Bay does not do that. It's a retirement community in Florida. Boston does to a certain extent, but not to the same extent as New York did.

If Tampa Bay plays Vancouver, expect Stanley Cup ratings to dip below 2.0. A Boston appearance against Vancouver will have the ratings hover between 2.0 and 2.5. Either way, it's a drop and it's because of the lack of a Central Division ratings powerhouse like Chicago and Detroit in the final.