Francona should ponder lineup changes after Game 3 rout

Heading into Game 3 of the American League Championship Series, the defending champion Red Sox appeared to have the edge over the upstart Rays.  By stealing Game 1 at Tropicana Field, Boston had swiped home-field advantage in the series away from Tampa Bay, giving the Olde Towne Team a chance to punch its ticket back to the World Series without leaving Fenway Park.

Those hopes, however, were dashed on Monday night, as the Rays saddled Jon Lester with his first career postseason defeat in a 9-1 rout that included four homers offensively, and a brilliant performance from Matt Garza on the mound.

Their awful performance in all facets of the game last night should've raised a red-flag for the Red Sox.  As confident as they were heading into that game, they should be equally concerned coming out of it.

For one thing, the Rays have now proven that they can handily beat both Boston's 2007 postseason ace (Beckett), and Lester, whose ALDS dominance was crucial to getting the Red Sox past the Angels.  That, however, is less of an immediate problem, because Terry Francona's team must first get to Games 6 and 7 before worrying about how to win them.

The more salient concern heading into tonight's Game 4 is about the offense, which has sputtered badly so far in this series, because of three dead spots spread throughout the lineup.  Leadoff man Jacoby Ellsbury is 0-for-14 in the ALCS, and has not drawn a single walk.  Big Papi has been rather tiny in the three-hole, with four walks and nary a hit to show for his first three games.  And Jason Varitek, batting in the lower third of the order, is 0-for-10, failing even to advance runners or come up with a sacrifice fly.  All the Dustin Pedroias, Kevin Youkilises, and Jason Bays in the world can't save a team with three all-but-guaranteed outs in its lineup, especially when its its opponents have produced virtually from top-to-bottom.

In Game 4, the Red Sox will face crafty right-hander Andy Sonnanstine, whose stellar control and arsenal of "junk"-balls have given them fits in the past.  Sonnanstine's last two starts against Boston were shutout efforts of seven and six innings, respectively.  The BoSox's hitters, keen on patience and working the count, will need to alter their approach against the 25 year-old, who threw 67 percent of his pitches for strikes during the regular season.  But in addition to being more aggressive, the Red Sox would be well-served to undergo a lineup change for what is a theoretical must-win tonight.

Despite their struggles, manager Terry Francona has stuck with Jacoby Ellsbury atop his lineup and David Ortiz in the third spot; Jason Varitek's struggles have been important, but there is little the skipper could do about them with few other options to turn to.  Kevin Cash will start behind the plate in Game 4 with Tim Wakefield on the hill, but his mediocre bat is unlikely to provide the needed boost.  Francona has shown a penchant during his tenure in Boston for waiting out his players' slumps rather than looking for an immediate fix.  That strategy has paid-off sometimes, most notably with Dustin Pedroia at the beginning of last season, but with plenty riding on tonight's contest, there is no time left to waste.

Just as Boston's hitters would do well to change their approach tonight, Terry Francona should strongly consider altering his lineup card.  Coco Crisp, who is 3-for-6 with two doubles in limited action in the ALCS and batting .375 since the beginning of September, for example, has a rock-solid case to take over Ellsbury's spot in center and the top spot in the lineup.  Also, while David Ortiz is extremely unlikely to move out of, or even down in, the lineup, his recent struggles and 3-for-16 career mark against Sonnanstine do not portend good things out of the three-hole tonight.  Giving Big Papi a day off might not be a popular decision, but if Francona dared to try, it could result in a win-win, putting an additional potent bat in the lineup -- Sean Casey's, perhaps -- and getting Ortiz back on track.

If he's averse to taking any of his regulars out of the lineup, Francona would be wise to at least ponder clustering his slumping bats in one part of the lineup.  That Boston's three currently anemic hitters reside in different parts of the order has prevented the Red Sox from stringing together rallies early on in this series.  While batting Ortiz in the eight-hole -- as Joe Torre infamously did with A-Rod in the 2006 ALCS -- is almost certainly not a consideration, moving Ellsbury out of the leadoff spot definitely should be.

They are down only two games to one in the series, and there is plenty of baseball left to play, but given their recent struggles on both sides of the ball, these are desperate times for the Red Sox.

And desperate times call for desperate measures.

The question is, does the steady hand of Terry Francona -- the same one that has helped him lead the Red Sox to two World Championships in the past four years -- have the guts to make a change?