Purdue-Northwestern: College Football Pre-Game Primer

Pre-Game Primer

 Purdue (2-4) at Northwestern (5-1)

Date:  October 18th, 2008

Location: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL

Game Time: 11:00 a.m. CT

On Air: ESPN 2, 720 AM

Line: Northwestern by 3.5

Northwestern can win if…

…they run the ball on every down.  Ok, maybe not that much, but a healthy dose of Tyrell Sutton usually results in a successful afternoon.  Wildcats quarterback C.J. Bacher is coming off a two-interception game and needs to be more of a game manager than gun-slinger against the Boilermakers. 

Sutton showed he is fully recovered from a hamstring injury he suffered two weeks ago when he burst for a 66-yard gain against Michigan State last week.

Defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz will have his hands full in Purdue quarterback Curtis Painter.  Luckily for Hankwitz, he’s facing the preseason Heisman candidate at the right time. 

Painter has struggled mightily in 2008, failing to live up to the hype as the nation’s best signal-caller.

Hankwitz can return to his highly successful blitz schemes, forcing Painter to make quick decisions that could turn into turnovers.  The Wildcats have been hit-or-miss on big plays this season, so expect more zone coverage in this game, limiting any big play potential Painter has.

Northwestern will struggle if…

…Painter transforms back into the quarterback he was the first three years of his career.  If there ever was a game for Painter to rebound, this one would be it. 

The Wildcat secondary has been giving up more big plays than Broadway and until it stops, opposing coordinators are going to exploit it.  If Painter gets into a rhythm, look out.

Northwestern has to win the time of possession battle to try and keep the high-scoring Boilermaker offense off the field.  As long as Bacher can continue to complete his short passes and Sutton can consistently get the first down, this shouldn’t be a problem.

Coming from behind, on the other hand, is the last thing the Wildcats need to do.  Bacher performs best when he can rely on Sutton and a steady passing game.

If the Cats are down early and forced into “comeback mode,” Bacher usually turns the ball over due to poor decision making.

Northwestern players to watch

Running back Tyrell Sutton

When healthy, Sutton is one of the best running backs in the country.  Against a less-than-stellar Purdue defense, his numbers should soar as long as the Wildcats aren’t forced to pass early.

Cornerback Sherrick McMannis

Coming off arguably his worst game of the season, McMannis needs to prove he still belongs in the starting lineup.  He already was removed from kick return duties, and if he doesn’t bring his A-game versus a big-arm talent like Painter, McMannis might not see the field again.

Purdue players to watch

Quarterback Curtis Painter

The self-proclaimed Heisman favorite heading into the season has become the Big Ten’s 10th-ranked passer and the nation’s 91st.  The talent is still there, but if Painter struggles early, look for Joe Tiller to pull the plug once again and return his senior to the bench.

Wide receiver Greg Orton

Painter’s favorite target is a studly 6-foot-3 and has recorded two separate nine-reception games already this season.  He could go off against the less-than-mediocre Northwestern defensive backs.

Linebacker Anthony Heywood

Leading Purdue’s defense with 9.3 tackles per game, Heywood will have the sole responsibility of stopping Sutton from any big gains.  The former fullback ranks 26th nationally in tackles per game.

Most Telling Statistic

Purdue’s defense allows over 400 yards per game, ranking 95th out of the 119 FBS schools.

Prediction

Purdue’s Joe Tiller will be making his final stop in Evanston, and NU coach Pat Fitzgerald will be honored for his induction into the College Football Hall of Fame at halftime. 

Northwestern is celebrating its Homecoming as well, so the players have to be motivated heading into this guaranteed gun-slinging match.

I really thought Northwestern would upset Michigan State, but they just weren’t as talented as the Spartans.  Coming off the bye week, they had no reason to play as poorly as they did, especially on special teams.

The numbers say the Wildcats should win this game, and with it being Homecoming weekend, they better. For some reason, I just don’t see them coming out on top. 

Curtis Painter isn’t this bad, and I expect him to regain his old form and prove he still has the talent to be one of the best passers in the country. 

Call it a gut-less prediction, but I see Bacher turning it over in the red zone to lose the game as time expires. 

- Purdue 34, Northwestern 30