College Football 2011: 10 Schedules That Are Harder than They Look
Only a mere 115 days separate us from today and the kick-off the 2011 college football season, which means just one thing: It’s time to get down to the serious business of predicting and prognosticating in earnest.
By now, we know who the favorites are, we are pretty sure of who will be returning to each squad and for the most part, every team’s schedule has been firmly nailed to the wooden post outside of the stadium gates.
Many teams who are predicted to do well in 2011 have three common traits: They performed fairly well last season, they have lots of returning talent and they have a schedule that seems at the very least “manageable.”
But which among these “doable” slates of games is actually a “wolf in sheep’s clothing?”
Perhaps the schedule presents the opportunity to mistakenly overlook hidden quality opponents, maybe it is the timing and actual order of the games that is the hidden pitfall, or perchance it is the overrating of the team playing the “feasible” schedule that makes the rating appear “easy” when in reality it is “perilous.”
The following slideshow attempts to identify 10 such schedules that may turn out to be harder than they look from the very blurred vision of early preseason.
South Carolina
1 of 10
It’s admittedly nuts to say “Hey, these SEC schedule’s are hard, aren’t they? Geez, I can’t believe it, look, these guys all got to play each other . . . Holy Schinkes!”
However, some of the SEC schedules are easier than they look (I’ll use Georgia as an example in 2011), while some actually are harder than they seem.
In 2011, SEC teams who don’t have Alabama and LSU on the schedule seem to have “gotten away with something.”
The Gamecocks are indeed a team that won’t be facing either LSU or the Tide next season. They have Florida and Clemson at home and their non-conference opponents are Navy, ECU and The Citadel, which leaves you thinking maybe this really will be the year South Carolina can break through to the BCS.
And maybe they will, but standing in the way are still some huge games that frankly won’t be that easy to win.
The highlights include the opener against East Carolina in Charlotte, which the Gamecocks should win but still presents the interesting match-up of ECU’s No. 8 ranked pass offense against South Carolina’s No. 97 ranked pass defense.
Then there is the Week 2 game at Georgia (the Gamecocks are 15-46-2 all-time against the Bulldogs), the October 15 road trip to Mississippi State and then a three game string of games beginning October 29 at Tennessee, at Arkansas and hosting Florida at home in Columbia.
And it’s key to note that South Carolina is 5-23-3 against the Gators, and last year’s 36-14 victory in Gainesville was only the second time since 1939 that the Gamecocks have beaten Florida.
Sure, they could win every one of these games; I’m just saying it might be a lot harder than it looks on paper.
Florida State
2 of 10
The Seminoles return a whopping 18 starters in 2011, and after a very solid 2010 effort (that seemed to just get better as the season progressed), next season is looking tasty.
Yes, FSU is primed to retake the national scene in college football, and even the schedule looks to be on their side.
At first glance, the Week 3 home clash with Oklahoma obviously grabs your attention, but after reading further, you get the feeling that the Seminoles have as good as a chance at running the tables as any other top ranked team (if they can beat the Sooners).
However, looks can be deceiving; what about the Week 4 game at Clemson? This could be the “emotional hangover” game after Oklahoma (win or lose) since 2005 the Seminoles are 2-4 against the Tigers.
And what about back-to-back home games in late October against Maryland and NC State? Yes, the Terrapins and Wolfpack who both went 9-4 last season and who both won their bowl games in grand fashion in 2010 (over East Carolina and West Virginia respectively).
These guys are not the same “easy conference” games they might have been in previous years.
And then there is that nasty little three game run to end the season which includes two huge rivalry games: Miami (FL) at home and then a road trip to Florida. The Seminoles are on the wrong side of the record against both those teams and who better suited or motivated to spoil your title run than your most hated foe?
No problem, right?
Wisconsin
3 of 10
The Badgers are another team that seem primed to do well in 2011, though they lost QB Scott Tolzien they return their dynamic duo running attack of James White and Montee Ball.
Placed in the new Big Ten “Leaders Division,” Wisconsin looks to be the frontrunner over beleaguered Ohio State, questionable against Penn State, Illinois, Purdue and Indiana.
Yes, Oregon State comes visiting in Week 2, but this is a team that did not play well last season and has lost a bunch of its firepower. The Nebraska game is at home, and Michigan and Iowa are both completely off the schedule.
What’s misleading about Wisconsin’s schedule is, after playing the first six games at home (or, in the case of Northern Illinois in the neutrality of Solider Field), the Badgers play five of the last six contests on the road.
Here is how it lays out beginning October 22; at Michigan State, at Ohio State, home against Purdue, at Minnesota, at Illinois and the finale at Penn State.
No matter how you slice it, that many road contests down the stretch will be a big test, and these are fully fledged Big Ten opponents, not UNLV and South Dakota, which are both featured in the early season home stand.
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Arizona State
4 of 10
The Sun Devils, despite going 6-6 in 2010, are many outlets “dark horse” candidate for title-ation in 2011.
Supporting ASU’s sunny forecast is the return of 19 starters (tied for the third most in the nation) and their placement in the new Pac-12 South Division which also includes USC (not postseason eligible in 2011), Arizona, UCLA and newcomers Utah and Colorado.
At first glance, the schedule looks interesting but not ugly: a huge road trip to Oregon on October 15 looms, but USC is at home and the other road trips are to Utah, UCLA and Washington State. Stanford and Washington aren’t even on the schedule.
However, the Sun Devils will have to prove themselves early with a Week 2 visit from Missouri (who lost QB Blaine Gabbert but returns much of their 10-3 team from 2010) followed by a road trip to Illinois (think what you want to, but this is a Big Ten team).
Yes, the road trip to Oregon will be tough, but don’t overlook the game that precedes the clash with the Ducks which is an equally nasty little visit to Utah (who may be a huge surprise in their first season in the Pac-12).
If you really think about it, even the finish which features home games versus Arizona and Cal just doesn’t seem easy. The Sun Devils are 37-46 against Arizona (1-2 in last three meetings) and 14-16 all-time versus Cal (2-8 in the last 10 games).
Texas A&M
5 of 10
The Aggies are yet another team who has a solid case for high expectations in 2011.
Texas A&M finally found a glimmer of hope in last season’s six game winning streak that saved Mike Sherman’s job and, along with 19 returning starters, may give him the opportunity to sign a new contract if the Aggies can really make a move in 2011.
Not unlike the SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 no Big 12 schedule is truly “easy”, but Texas A&M (other than the November 5 road trip to Oklahoma) would seem to have dodged some bullets in 2011.
The toughest opponents, Oklahoma State, Missouri and Texas are all home games (the Aggies have a huge advantage in hyped-up, towel-waving, gigging Kyle Field), while the Arkansas game is played in Arlington Texas, which, though officially netrual, should pack-in the A&M faithful.
But what’s hidden beneath the layers of goodness are a few tricky bits. First comes an interesting match-up with SMU in the opener, the Aggies should beat the Mustangs but watch-out for Texas A&M’s No. 89 ranked pass defense against SMU’s No. 21 ranked pass offense.
Then there is the October 8 road trip to Texas Tech, a team that should struggle in 2011 but who, due to the definite hate/hate relationship with the Aggies, will be ready to pounce on the opportunity to play “spoiler” (plus, the Red Raider fans will not make this game easy or pretty).
And don’t forget about the road trip to Kansas State (a team no one is talking about) that immediately follows the Oklahoma game. This game has “emotional hangover” and “overlook” written all over it. Remember, Kansas State improved to 7-6 in 2010 and will be looking for more during the next chapter of the second Bill Snyder football revival story.
TCU
6 of 10
The Horned Frogs, despite only returning 10 starters (including two on special teams) from their undefeated Rose Bowl championship season, will no doubt retool under Gary Patterson who has fielded quality teams year after year at TCU.
And frankly, the Horned Frogs schedule looks like it well help TCU rebuild and perhaps do so while racking up a bunch of wins.
Yes, other than the obvious (at Boise State on November 12), it looks like just another Mountain West schedule.
However, the truth is, this IS NOT the same Horned Frog team from 2010, and this fact will make the schedule more difficult; plus, look closer my friend...there are some quality teams on this slate.
The opening two weeks will be tough: at Baylor (a team with a great offense who played well in 2010) and then at Air Force (another team that could surprise a bunch of folks in 2011), then on to games against SMU, versus BYU in Arlington and at San Diego State.
TCU will play well regardless of who is wearing the purple and who is not, but this schedule won’t be a cake walk either way.
Notre Dame
7 of 10
The Irish seem to finally have enough talent and stability in place to begin to re-emerge as a factor on the national scene of college football.
In all, 18 starters come back from a 2010 that had its ups and downs but the low turnover ratio should do nothing but help Brian Kelly to improve Notre Dame’s chances of making it back into the BCS.
Notre Dame’s schedule in 2011 has the obvious challenges, but other than the huge closer at Stanford, it doesn’t seem like there is a game that the Irish wouldn’t have a chance in.
This may be true, or it could be a huge misconception, possibly overestimating the Irish’s good qualities and underestimating those of their scheduled opponents.
To me, these are the games that seem the most hazardous: at Michigan, at Pitt (a new coach in Todd Graham but lots of returning talent), Air Force in South Bend (this could well be a shocker, look what Navy’s option offense did to the Irish in 2010) and Maryland in Landover (the Terrapins are a very good football team).
Stanford
8 of 10
Though Andrew Luck is back under center at Stanford, gone is Jim Harbaugh and a handful of starters from the team that went 12-1 and won the Orange Bowl.
Still, the Cardinal is found ranked among the top ten teams in many preseason listings and they have a schedule that seems, at least on the surface, to make a run at the new Pac-12 North division probable.
Indeed, you can easily support an argument that Stanford could be 7-0 going into their October 29 visit to USC; the first seven games are home contests against San Jose State, UCLA, Colorado and Washington with road trips to Duke, Arizona and Washington State.
But the last five games are substantially dicier at USC, at Oregon State and then a home stand featuring Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame.
USC may be ineligible for postseason play, but they will still be eligible to win the game; anything can happen at Oregon State. Oregon should be a part of the national championship equation again in 2011, Cal is a rivalry game and Notre Dame, well, who knows what that game will mean, but Stanford is 8-17 all time against the Irish.
Alabama
9 of 10
Again, we all know that the SEC schedule is inherently laced with peril and doom, especially the SEC West schedule and though it seems ridiculous to state the obvious; the Crimson Tide schedule in 2011 is harder than it looks.
Why?
Well, Alabama is expected to win all these games. Seriously, they will more than likely be the favorite in every game on their schedule (without the services of Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram and Julio Jones).
Kent State at home in the opener (aka the warm-up crushing of the Golden Flashes), Penn State (come on, how good is Penn State?), back at home versus North Texas (the Mean Green get a whipping) at home against Arkansas (Mallett-less), at Florida (the Gators are still working things out), at home against Vandy (yawn . . .) and at Ole Miss (did you see them play last season? Well, maybe that’s because they weren’t on TV).
Moving swiftly on to the second half of the season, the Tide are at home against Tennessee (seriously?), at home against LSU (come on, it’s in Tuscaloosa), at Mississippi State (we won’t lose to them, no matter how good they are), against FCS Georgia Southern and then the finale at Auburn (Cam Newton, where for art thou Cam Newton?).
What’s the big deal?
Pittsburgh
10 of 10
Todd Graham takes over as the head coach at Pitt with 16 starters returning from the 2010 Panther squad that finished 8-5 and unranked.
Key returnees include QB Tino Sunseri, No. 2 rusher Ray Graham and No. 2 receiver Mike Shanahan. The bulk of offensive line is back as is most of the defense that earned a No. 15 ranking in scoring, allowing opponents an average of only 19 points per game.
What Pitt struggled with in 2010 was scoring points. They ranked No. 67 overall in scoring and averaged 26.3 points per game.
Fortuitously, offense is exactly what Todd Graham had great success with at Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes ranked No. 13 in passing yards, No. 15 in rushing yards and No. 6 in scoring last season. All this resulted in a 10-3 record and Tulsa’s first final AP ranking in 20 years with a defense that ranked No. 85.
With the Panthers returning a lot of experienced skill offensively and the bulk of a very good defense, 2011 looks promising.
And, again, the schedule looks quite agreeable. Seriously, this may be the easiest schedule of the bunch.
Early tests at Iowa (who should be rebuilding) in Week 3, hosting Notre Dame in Week 4 and the late road trip to West Virginia (Thanksgiving Friday) are highlights, but then the remainder is somewhat underwhelming.
But this may be a Big East that won’t roll over and play dead like it did last season, and games that look “easy” such as at home contests against USF, UConn, Cincinnati and Syracuse could be fraught with difficulties.
Most compelling is a home game on October 15 against Utah, who may start gaining some national attention when they give the Panthers a run for their money.
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