College Football 2011 Predictions: Calling the 1st Loss for Every Top 25 Team
The 2011 college football season is just a few months away, believe it or not, and it is rarely too early to talk rankings.
And while compiling a top 25 produces quite the argument, predicting the undefeateds, the BCS berths and conference champions provides similar feelings of delusion.
Using ESPN's Mark Schlabach's 2011 Way-Too-Early Preseason Top 25, these are the predictions for their first losses next season.
25. Mississippi State Bulldogs
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A surprise 9-4 season and a 52-14 Gator Bowl demolition of a Michigan program in shambles had the Bulldogs finish in the top 15.
Mark Schlabach has Dan Mullen's program on the brink of the 2011 preseason rankings, and it is well deserved.
First Loss: @ Auburn, Sept. 10
Auburn is coming off its BCS title run and though the program saw Heisman winner Cam Newton, as well as DT Nick Fairley go to the NFL, the Tigers still have talent in the program.
The Bulldogs' defensive coordinator Manny Diaz left for Texas after finishing the year ranked 15th and 21st in run defense and scoring defense respectively.
Auburn may have a big target on its back, and MSU will be a significant underdog, but the talent and the intangibles look in heavy favor of the defending national champions.
24. Nebraska Cornhuskers
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The Cornhuskers barely missed out on a Big 12 title in 2010, finishing 10-4 with a disappointing 19-7 defeat in the Holiday Bowl against a formidable Washington team.
Nebraska's first year in the Big Ten will be one to watch as Bo Pelini will have several holes to fill on defense including the departures of Prince Amukamara and Eric Hagg. Losing Roy Helu Jr. hurts, but the 'Huskers have respectable replacements. Incoming freshman Aaron Green at tailback could be a name to watch.
First Loss: @ Wisconsin, Oct. 1
Expect the Big Ten newcomer to start the season clean with three consecutive non-conference home games followed by a possibly overlooked matchup at Wyoming.
But Nebraska's first test comes in its first Big Ten game at Wisconsin.
23. Arizona State Sun Devils
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Nine starters on defense and 10 on offense return for Dennis Erickson's Sun Devils, and they could be one of the more overlooked programs heading into the 2011 season.
Arizona State went 6-6 last year, but four of those losses were decided by four points or fewer.
First Loss: vs. Oregon State, Oct. 1
Predicting ASU's first loss is tricky. On one hand, it seems possible that the Sun Devils could drop games against Missouri, Illinois and USC. However, with the amount of talent and experience returning to the program, calling a loss seems just as likely as picking a win.
The Rodgers brothers (Jacquizz and James) present dynamic options for the Beavers, who will be looking to rebound after a lackluster 2010. Should ASU start the season hot with wins at Wisconsin and at home against UCLA, don't discount the streak going to three in Tempe.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
22. Virginia Tech Hokies
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Virginia Tech showed the nation the meaning of resilience last season after heartbreaking losses to open the year at home against Boise State and James Madison.
The Hokies subsequently ran the table to finish 11-2 before getting throttled by Stanford.
Frank Beamer is one of the best in the business, but dealing with the loss of his star quarterback and playmaker in Tyrod Taylor, in addition to a couple of running backs in Darren Evans and Ryan Williams has to hurt.
First Loss: vs. Clemson, Oct. 1
Skepticism bites hard. Will the Hokies have an answer offensively for Clemson's stingy defense?
Beamer's team has four games to find one or opening ACC play will be rough.
21. Missouri Tigers
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Missouri's pass-heavy offense will need some serious fine-tuning after Blaine Gabbert left for the NFL.
The 10th overall pick in the draft threw for over 3,000 yards for the Tigers last season. Where will the offense come from in 2011?
First Loss: @ Oklahoma, Sept. 24
This could be the closest thing to a sure thing. Oklahoma reloads just as well as any program in the nation, and the Sooners have some pieces in place for what could be another Big 12 title in Norman.
Missouri should win its non-conference matchups against Miami (OH) and Western Illinois. Even if the Tigers scrape by Arizona State on Sept. 9, they probably will not face a more dangerous team all season than Oklahoma.
20. Florida Gators
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Will Muschamp's first year in Gainesville will be a heavily scrutinized one.
The Gators failed to beat a ranked opponent in 2010 en route to a pedestrian 8-5 season, including their comfortable 13-point win over Penn State in the Outback Bowl.
Florida looks set for a furious turnaround as Muschamp is joined on the sidelines by offensive coordinator Charlie Weis. Finding an answer at quarterback, whether it's John Brantley or someone else, will go a long way towards success in the post-Urban Meyer era.
First Loss: vs. Alabama, Oct. 1
Never mind the departures of Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram and Marcell Dareus, Nick Saban's defense will still be as nasty as ever, and the running game belongs to Trent Richardson, who put up a better yards per carry average than the former Heisman winner.
Muschamp's team will have a real test come that Saturday.
19. Texas Longhorns
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Texas obviously received the benefit of the doubt in the preseason rankings after an abysmal 5-7 season in 2010.
Poor play-calling, poor offensive line, poor quarterback—you name it, the Longhorns probably did it.
But that is yesterday's news and Mack Brown's team has a mission in 2011. With a revamped coaching staff, expect a brand new version of the Longhorns that most have never seen before.
First Loss: vs. Oklahoma, Oct. 8 (in Dallas, Texas)
Texas could very well lose in its second and/or third game of the season. But having BYU in Austin should provide a significant advantage. UCLA handled the Longhorns last year, but fully expect Texas to dish out some payback to the Bruins.
The annual showdown with the Sooners again will be an intriguing matchup. Oklahoma is easily the top team in the Big 12 South, but it is easier to throw everything in the trash when it comes to the Red River Rivalry. But when it is all said and done, Texas just may not have all the pieces in order to finish on top.
18. Georgia Bulldogs
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It is no news that Georgia struggled against better competition last season, dropping games against No. 24 South Carolina, No. 12 Arkansas and then-No. 2 Auburn. But four offensive linemen return for the Bulldogs, and that should provide some stability for 2011. The team lost a great offensive weapon in A.J. Green, but finding answers on defense will be more crucial than anything.
Georgia's first season in a 3-4 defense was no good. The second installment will have to be better if Mark Richt wants a shot at the SEC East.
First Loss: vs. Boise State, Sept. 3 (in Atlanta)
Boise State seems to always start off hot, and 2011 appears no different apart from the NCAA violations. But Chris Petersen is one of the best when it comes to playing to his team's strengths, and with Kellen Moore returning for his senior year, Petersen will have found plenty of new options for his wild offensive strategy.
Yes, it is virtually a home game for the Bulldogs, but the Broncos will play anybody, and they probably will beat anybody as well.
17. Auburn Tigers
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The defending national champions have several pieces to replace, including the Heisman winner Cam Newton and defensive tackle Nick Fairley. Auburn also lost a couple of key starters on the offensive line.
Expect the Tigers to lean on Michael Dyer to open the season as they figure out their strengths.
First Loss: @ South Carolina, Oct. 1
First of all, much of the Gamecocks success this season will depend on when/if they get their senior quarterback Stephen Garcia back from suspension for off-the-field issues.
South Carolina does have Marcus Lattimore, however, who could eventually be one of the best backs in the country.
If Auburn can't contain Lattimore, any hopes of defending its title appear to be gone.
16. Michigan State Spartans
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The Spartans had one of the most balanced offenses in the country last season, leading up to an 11-1 finish before getting obliterated by the Crimson Tide 49-7 in the Capitol One Bowl.
Michigan State returns much of that balance for 2011, but defensively will need some help.
With the first four and last four games of the year looking very winnable right now, the middle four should scare Spartans fans the most.
First Loss: @ Notre Dame, Sept. 17
The Irish finished 2010 strong, and should be stronger to start 2011. Brian Kelly gets Dayne Crist back from injury at quarterback and surprisingly Michael Floyd at receiver.
Seventeen starters return between the offense and defense for Notre Dame. Expect the Irish to defend their turf.
15. South Carolina Gamecocks
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Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery return for the Gamecocks, and Steve Spurrier hopes Stephen Garcia can provide the leadership he needs to repeat as SEC East champions.
Jadeveon Clowney, the top recruit in 2010, likely will come in and contribute early.
South Carolina was humbled after getting drilled by Auburn in the 2010 SEC Championship and later losing to Florida State in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
First Loss: @ Georgia, Sept. 10
The Bulldogs will be coming off a loss to Boise State and will be looking to spill blood. Going on the road to Sanford Stadium is never easy, and the Gamecocks will face a stiff early-season test.
Will Georgia have its defense figured out to stop Lattimore? Much of this game will depend on that matchup.
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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Dayne Crist will be back from injury and Michael Floyd shocked many by returning for his senior year.
The Irish looked good at the end last season, and with some good upside going into 2011, Notre Dame should be strong throughout the year.
First Loss: vs. USC, Oct. 22
Call it a gut feeling, but even though the Trojans look to carry the status quo from 2010 into this year, adrenaline will get the best of both teams in this rivalry match.
Yes, the cards should be in favor of the Irish, but USC is still USC. The Trojans still have talent and enough of it will shine to be in a position to win in South Bend.
13. Wisconsin Badgers
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Wisconsin will be a heavy favorite to take the Big Ten title again in 2011, but rebuilding its monstrous and effective offensive line will be the X-factor toward determining how successful the Badgers running game will be.
The program said goodbye to its defensive coordinator Dave Doeren, who left for Northern Illinois, but two coaches were promoted from within as co-coordinators.
First Loss: @ Ohio State, Oct. 29
The Buckeyes will be looking to make up as much ground as possible if the team falters early on from its suspended players.
Wisconsin could come into this game undefeated with a huge target on its back. With Ohio State seemingly at full strength by this time, the Badgers could be in for a rough match at the Horseshoe.
12. Texas A&M Aggies
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The Aggies were the surprise of the Big 12 in 2010, and with a load of talent returning for another go this season, Mike Sherman's team looks to be equally dangerous.
Ryan Tannehill played superbly after getting the starting job at quarterback, and Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael provide a deadly one-two punch at tailback. Jeff Fuller is another dynamic option at wideout.
A&M's defense will have to find other options with Von Miller (No. 2 overall in the draft) gone, but in the program's second year in the 3-4 defense, expect the Aggies to be strong.
First Loss: @ Oklahoma, Nov. 5
In giving the Aggies the benefit of the doubt for the program's strange inconsistencies over the year, Mike Sherman could go into Norman with a doughnut in the loss column.
Still, the Sooners are mighty comfortable at home, and they return their own slew of playmakers. This matchup could decide who claims the Big 12 South crown.
11. Arkansas Razorbacks
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Arkansas will dearly miss its star quarterback in Ryan Mallett who left for the NFL. But the Razorbacks always seem very capable underdogs no matter the talent level.
Bobby Petrino will have to work to establish a new offensive identity with a new quarterback at the helm, but with the return of some special playmakers at receiver, the learning curve may be minimized.
First Loss: @ Alabama, Sept. 4
The Razorbacks figure to be a steady team in 2011, but having to go on the road to Tuscaloosa will be a tough fight in any year.
They nearly squeaked out a win over the Tide last year in Fayetteville, but the matchup this season will likely yield the same result, but in a different proportion.
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys
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The Pokes return plenty of talent for a run in the Big 12 South this season.
Quarterback Brandon Weeden had a great year in 2010, as did explosive wideout Justin Blackmon. But replacing Kendall Hunter will be as hard a task as any.
For the country's third-ranked scoring offense in Division I last year, points will again come in bunches. How will the defense hold up, though?
First Loss: @ Texas A&M, Sept. 24
Oklahoma State will be a powerhouse offensively, but the defense likely will give up its fair share of scores.
The matchup in College Station may turn into a shootout, but with A&M's two-headed monster at running back, the Cowboys defense looks to tire.
9. TCU Horned Frogs
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Coach Gary Patterson has earned the respect of doing more with less, but TCU is no longer the underdog that many have come to realize in the last couple of seasons.
Andy Dalton is gone, as well as a couple of reliable receivers in Jimmy Young and Jeremy Kerley.
Patterson's defense was tops in the country in Division I in 2010, and though the Horned Frogs do play in a gimme conference, last year's Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin was a statement.
First Loss: @ Boise State, Nov. 12
TCU figures to be undefeated going into this game, but that could be where that run ends.
In the matchup of "mid-majors turned BCS qualifiers," the Broncos will be licking their chops at the chance to derail TCU's hopes of a return to the BCS.
Kellen Moore's final year in college could be a big one.
8. Boise State Broncos
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Boise State makes the switch to the Mountain West this season, and its schedule figures to be a little more difficult than previous years.
But Heisman hopeful Kellen Moore returns for his senior season and could eclipse Colt McCoy's career wins record (45).
The Broncos offense will explosive as usual, despite the loss of two star receivers in Austin Pettis and Titus Young. Chris Petersen's system will find playmakers.
If the defense holds up, a BCS berth is not out of the question.
First Loss: None
There are very few games on the schedule that scream upset. Going to Atlanta to face Georgia will be a test, but with Boise State's typically hot starts, the Broncos could be in a position going into the TCU game on Nov. 12 to make noise in the BCS.
Mark them down for an undefeated season.
7. Stanford Cardinal
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Andrew Luck's decision to return for his senior season makes the departure of coach Jim Harbaugh a little easier to deal with for the Stanford faithful.
But with three offensive linemen and seven starters on defense having moved on, much of the starting lineup will look very different to most.
With Luck as one of the favorites for the Heisman, Stanford's chances of a successful season go way up.
First Loss: None
It is hard to predict any game in which Stanford won't be in position to win.
Most of its quality matches are at home, including Oregon on Nov. 12. The Cardinal will be gunning for revenge as the Ducks were Stanford's lone blemish on an otherwise fantastic 2010 campaign.
Put Stanford in the thick of the BCS race.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
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Everyone knows of Ohio State's five starters who were suspended for the team's first five games in 2011. How the Buckeyes perform during that stretch and how quickly they can recover when at full strength will ultimately determine how well Jim Tressel's team finishes this season.
Terrelle Pryor will continue to be the showcase on offense after he led the team to a Big Ten championship.
Should the Buckeyes drop a game early on, they will be fighting an uphill battle to defend their title.
First Loss: vs. Michigan State, Oct. 1
It is the Big Ten opener for the Buckeyes, but without their star playmakers, the Spartans should capitalize on Ohio State's suspended.
MSU is in a position to contend for the Big Ten, and a win over OSU, with or without its top players is a signature win.
5. Oregon Ducks
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Despite Oregon's loss in the BCS title game in January, the Ducks offense looks to be equally dynamic and explosive with quarterback Darron Thomas and running back LaMichael James returning.
Chip Kelly will still have some work to do in replacing several starters on the offensive line and on defense if he hopes to put his team in the hat for a return to the BCS.
First Loss: @ Stanford, Nov. 12
With a couple of Heisman hopefuls in place for a great offensive machine, Oregon figures to do very well during the season.
The Ducks ended Stanford's BCS hopes last year with a win at home, but they will have to achieve similar results against the Cardinal's own Heisman contender.
4. LSU Tigers
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LSU will always field a strong unit, and that argument won't waver much in 2011.
The Tigers relied heavily on Stevan Ridley last season, but won't have his services this time around.
The Bayou Bengals put out a strong defense ranked 11th in Division I in points allowed, and if their offense can come alive, they are legitimate contenders for the SEC West.
First Loss: vs. Oregon, Sept. 3 (in Arlington, Texas)
It will be the highlight of college football's opening weekend.
Oregon's explosive offense against LSU's stout defense figures to be front-page coverage, and an exciting game it appears to be.
But with Oregon's underrated defense, LSU may not have the fire on offense to put enough points on the board.
3. Florida State Seminoles
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Florida State is in prime position to capture the ACC title in 2011, especially with nine starters returning on both sides of the football.
Jimbo Fisher did very well in his first crack as head coach, but a BCS berth will do wonders for his career.
First Loss: @ Florida, Nov. 26
Expect the 'Noles to survive against the Sooners on Sept. 17, given the demolition handed to them in Norman last season.
FSU doesn't have the tough schedule that most ACC teams will endure, but the game against Florida during rivalry week should be the difference between an undefeated season and a BCS title shot.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
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The NFL draft was hard on the Crimson Tide, as Nick Saban saw Mark Ingram, Julio Jones and Marcell Dareus move on to the next level. But Alabama reloads as good as any program in the country, and if there is one school to challenge for the BCS after losing so much talent, it's this one.
It will be Trent Richardson's show early on as the Tide attempt to recalibrate their offense under a new quarterback.
A Saban-coached defense is always a trusty and sturdy defense, and should the offense sputter out of the gates, expect Alabama's D to pick up any slack.
First Loss: @ Ole Miss, Oct. 15
No science, just a hunch. The Rebels have played the Tide relatively close in the last few matchups. And if there is any year for Ole Miss to pull an upset, it might be this year with 'Bama on a reloading season.
1. Oklahoma Sooners
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Although the Sooners lost DeMarco Murray to the NFL, their offense should be one of the best in the country with quarterback Landry Jones and receiver Ryan Broyles returning to Norman.
If Jones replicates his 2010 season this year, his name could be in the Heisman mix towards the end of the year, but Oklahoma most likely will have to win the Big 12 again, which is also not out of the realm of possibility.
Plenty of experience also returns for the Sooners on both sides of the ball, so expect OU at the top of the rankings for some time in 2011.
First Loss: @ Florida State, Sept. 17
The Sooners gave Jimbo Fisher's Seminoles quite the beating when FSU came into Norman last year. It will be a marquee game to watch when Oklahoma completes the home-and-home in the second week of the season.
But even if OU drops this one to the 'Noles, the chance of the Sooners running the table en route to defending their Big 12 crown can't be overlooked.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
