MLB 2011: No Guarantees for Baseball Division Leaders

Just because a team is leading their division in May does not mean they will end up in the playoffs.  The New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies lead their divisions right now, but it is a long baseball season.  Only two of the division leaders last year at the beginning of May ended up winning their divisions.  What are the chances for each of these six teams leading their division to still be there in October?

Last season just the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins ended up on top of their division after leading on May 1st. The other four teams, the Oakland A’s, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres and New York Mets all missed the playoffs entirely. Two years ago only two of the six division leaders from May 1st won their division.

It was better in 2008 as four of the six won their divisions. In 2007 there were three that held on but in 2006 just one team held on. The numbers tell us that only two or three of the current division leaders will still be there in October.

New York Yankees
It is hard not to like the chances of the Yankees, especially with the early trouble of the Red Sox. But New York is not a team without issues, particularly in their starting rotation and the supposed strength of the team, the bullpen, has not been that great.

Cleveland Indians
The surprise team in baseball would be a logical choice to fall, but the American League Central is not very good. The White Sox have been terrible, the Tigers are nothing special and the Twins have had injuries. Maybe the Indians can hold on.

Los Angeles Angels
The Angels probably won’t hold on and win the division as Texas looks to be the better team and has already led the division this season.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are the one team that all of the oddsmakers in Vegas have penciled in to win their division. The Phillies have the best starting rotation in baseball and although the Marlins and Braves are good, the Phillies look tough.

St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are leading the division and maybe they can hold on. When you pick the winner in this division you just close your eyes and hope, as none of the teams look that good.

Colorado Rockies
The other team that should be there at the end along with the Phillies is Colorado. They should get challenged though by the Giants, but this looks to be the Rockies year.