College Football 2011 Predictions: Predicting Every FBS Conference Champion
Of course, every team's ultimate goal would be to win a national championship. I am not here to diminish the sense of accomplishment that comes with winning the Sears Trophy, but do not underestimate how important conference supremacy is to teams and coaches.
It does not matter whether you are Alabama or Idaho. Each team is striving to carve out a place at the top of its respective conference.
Some teams may be fighting off challengers who are trying to knock them off their perch. Other teams may be finally closing in on the end of a long climb from the bottom of their conference.
Here are the teams that will be enjoying the penthouse view atop their conference hierarchy at season's end.
ACC: Florida State
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Florida State came close to claiming the ACC championship last season, but the Seminoles came up short against Virginia Tech in the ACC title game.
Now heading into year two of the Jimbo Fisher era in Tallahassee, Florida State is the front runner to win the conference in 2011.
Quarterback Christian Ponder begins his NFL career with Minnesota, but if last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl was any indication, then the offense should be in good hands under the direction of dual-threat signal caller E.J. Manuel.
Wide receivers Bert Reed and Willie Haulstead are both potent wide receivers that can make plays in space. Running back Chris Thompson gained 846 yards as a sophomore and will headline the Seminole rushing attack.
A pair of seniors will lead the Florida State defense in defensive end Markus White and linebacker Nigel Bradham. Mark Stoops has done an excellent job since being hired as the Seminoles defensive coordinator in 2009. The unit should once again be one of the stingier defenses in the ACC.
The fact that Virginia Tech and Miami (FL) both have significant question marks going into the fall makes this selection that much easier. Virginia Tech loses its backfield trio of Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Williams and Darren Evans. Miami, meanwhile, faces uncertainty at quarterback with Jacory Harris and Stephen Morris battling it out.
Big East: West Virginia
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Despite the departure of decorated running buck Noel Devine, West Virginia will still be the team to beat in the Big East next fall.
Quarterback Geno Smith played excellent during his first season under center as a sophomore. Smith threw for 2,763 yards, 24 touchdowns and just seven interceptions.
He will be aided by the return of dynamic wide receiver Tavon Austin. Together, Smith and Austin should form arguably the top quarterback-wide receiver connection in the Big East. Stedman Bailey should also be a solid target for Smith at wide receiver.
For all of the offense’s returning talent, holes will need to be filled on the Mountaineers defense. West Virginia only gave up 13.5 points per game last season, which was good for third-best in the country. Seven starters are gone from that unit, though, including free safety Robert Sands and defensive tackle Scooter Berry.
Defensive tackle Julian Miller returns after recording nine sacks last season. He will be one of the leaders of this revamped West Virginia defense.
West Virginia will have the benefit of playing arguably its three toughest Big East games—versus Pittsburgh, Louisville and Connecticut—at home in the friendly confines of Milan Puskar Stadium.
Finally, it will be interesting to see how the dynamic between incoming coach Dana Holgorsen and exiting head coach Bill Stewart plays out. Despite the unconventional coaching situation, West Virginia has a perfect mix of a favorable conference schedule along with a number of returning playmakers. This combination makes it the early front runner to win the Big East in 2011.
Big Ten: Michigan State
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The one-two punch of Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell at running back leads head coach Mark Dantonio’s Spartans into the 2011 season.
Some Spartan fans may still be stewing over the 49-7 beatdown that Alabama handed Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl, but there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about this fall.
Baker and Bell accumulated 1,706 rushing yards last season, and the duo should once again collectively put up big numbers on the ground next season. Senior quarterback Kirk Cousins gives Michigan State solid quarterback play and a calming presence under center. Finally, Michigan State returns virtually its entire wide receiving corps from last season.
On defense, Dantonio’s team returns an ample amount of talent from a unit that gave up 22.3 points per game last season. Big holes have been left by the departure of senior linebackers Greg Jones and Eric Gordon though. The pair combined for 197 tackles last season, and finding replacements for them at linebacker will be a top priority for Dantonio and his staff. Chris L. Rucker’s presence will also be missed at cornerback.
As far as the schedule goes, Michigan State will enjoy playing the suspension-weakened version of Ohio State. That is right; Michigan State is the fifth game on the Buckeyes' schedule. This will be the final contest that Terrelle Pryor, Dan Herron, DeVier Posey and Mike Adams will have to sit out. A pair of midseason games versus Wisconsin and Nebraska stand out as the toughest part of the Spartans' Big Ten slate.
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Big 12: Oklahoma
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The pass-catching combination of quarterback Landry Jones and wide receiver Ryan Broyles leads a loaded Oklahoma squad into the 2011 season.
Arguments could be made for Texas A&M and Oklahoma State here, but ultimately this Sooners squad will have to be defeated before it is moved down in the pecking order.
Almost everyone of note from last year’s Fiesta Bowl victory versus UConn returns, with the exception of running back DeMarco Murray. However, freshman Roy Finch played well during his limited opportunities last season, gaining 398 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Both Finch and incoming freshman Brandon Williams should take on carries in the backfield, easing the sting of Murray’s departure.
A midseason neutral-site matchup versus rival Texas, a November 5th home game versus Texas A&M and the regular season finale at Oklahoma State will serve as the three pivotal cruxes in the Sooners' Big 12 slate.
Conference USA: SMU
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SMU has come a long way since having the dreaded “death penalty” handed down by the NCAA.
There have been some losing seasons, to say the least, but the program is now thriving under former Hawaii head coach June Jones. SMU lost a close game to Army in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl to close out the 2010 campaign, and expectations are even higher for next season.
Junior quarterback Kyle Padron will lead the Mustangs offense. Padron played excellent as a sophomore, throwing for 3,828 yards and 31 touchdowns. He has an abundance of talent and is one of the most underrated signal callers in the country
Wide receiver Aldrick Robinson is now a Washington Redskin, but Cole Beasley recorded over 1,000 receiving yards last season. Beasley will have no problem stepping in as the No. 1 wide receiver in the offense.
SMU was only average last season on defense, giving up 25.6 points per game. The Mustangs return the bulk of their defensive line and secondary, though, which should signal improvement as the tenured unit heads into 2011.
Teams such as UCF, East Carolina and Houston will have something to say about this prediction next fall. However, SMU is the early favorite to build on last year’s success and take home the Conference USA crown in 2011.
Mid-American Conference: Miami (OH)
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Miami (OH) won the 2010 Mid-American Conference championship under former head coach Mike Haywood. The RedHawks' 10 victories in 2010 were astounding considering that the team only won one game in 2009.
Former Michigan State offensive coordinator Don Treadwell enters as the new Miami head coach. Treadwell will have an experienced unit that appears to be the odds-on favorite to defend its MAC crown in 2011.
On offense it will all begin and end with junior quarterback Zac Dysert. Dysert was an all-conference selection in both 2009 and 2010. He threw for 2,406 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. The return of four starters on the offensive line should set the tone for the RedHawks offense up front.
On defense, Miami returns nine starters from a unit that showed dramatic improvement in comparison to its dismal 2009 campaign.
Miami came out of nowhere to win the conference last season. The RedHawks will be the hunted in 2011 rather than the hunter. With that being said, this team has talent on both sides of the ball and appears to be the class of the conference.
Mountain West: TCU
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TCU is looking forward to bolting for the Big East and its automatic BCS bid in 2012, but the Horned Frogs will look to snag one final Mountain West crown before they depart.
Running back Ed Wesley was an all-conference selection last year. Wesley becomes the focal point of the Horned Frog offense with the departure of quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver Jeremy Kerley. He gained 1,078 yards last season and should take on an even bigger role in an offense that will favor the running game.
TCU had the nation’s No. 1 defensive unit last season, allowing only 12 points per game. There are holes that need to be filled defensively, and it will be a stretch to say that the Horned Frogs will be as strong as last year on the defensive side of the ball. New players will be stepping in, but history suggests that TCU will not fall too far on defense.
The November 12th matchup versus Boise State will be the telling game on the schedule. Along with obviously Boise State, TCU will be tested by Air Force. Air Force runs a unique wishbone offense and will provide fits for TCU.
Pac-12: Oregon
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I realize that the majority of Oregon’s front seven on defense needs to be replaced, but there is still way too much to like about Oregon next season.
The backfield trio of quarterback Darron Thomas and running backs LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner all return after carving up defenses in 2010. These three players should once again shine in head coach Chip Kelly’s fast-paced, spread offensive system.
The departure of Jeff Maehl stings, but the presence of Josh Huff and Lavasier Tuinei should be more than enough talent for the Ducks at wide receiver.
As I stated earlier, Oregon is staring at heavy losses on the defensive side of the football. With that being said, the Ducks have recruited at an extremely high level over the past few years. I expect new playmakers to emerge on the defensive side of the ball.
November will be the month in which we truly find out if the Ducks have what it takes to bring a third straight conference championship to Autzen. The conference slate is backloaded with a final three-game stretch that includes a road game versus Andrew Luck and Stanford, a home game versus ever dangerous USC and a home finale versus rival Oregon State.
Ultimately, Oregon’s team speed and returning veterans carry it over the top in the new-look Pac-12 conference.
SEC: Alabama
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Alabama loses quarterback Greg McElroy, running back Mark Ingram, wide receiver Julio Jones and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus.
With that being said, Alabama is still my pick to reign supreme at the top of the SEC in 2011.
Running back Trent Richardson is a Heisman candidate. He will take on more carries due to the departure of Mark Ingram, but Richardson will not fall off due to the departure of his backfield mate.
It has become more uncertain as to whether quarterback A.J. McCarron will be the Crimson Tide’s starter. Regardless, wide receivers Marquis Maze and Darius Hanks will make life easier on whoever steps under center.
The Crimson Tide fielded one of the top units in the country last year, only giving up 13.5 points per game. Incredibly, the defense might be stronger in 2010. The aforementioned Dareus is gone on the defensive line, but players such as linebacker Dont’a Hightower, safety Mark Barron and cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick are all future NFL talents.
The fact that Alabama plays LSU and Arkansas in Tuscaloosa bodes well for the Tide. Road trips to Mississippi State, Florida and Auburn will have to be navigated.
Sun Belt: Florida International
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The renovation job that head coach Mario Cristobal has done at Florida International has been simply remarkable.
Florida International defeated Toledo last year in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl to cap off a great 2010 campaign.
As nice as the 2010 season was, the Panthers are poised to take even bigger steps next fall.
Home-run threat wide receiver T.Y. Hilton returns for his senior season at the school after accumulating 848 receiving yards and five touchdowns in 2010. Hilton will benefit from the return of senior quarterback Wesley Carroll. Running back Darriet Perry is a ground-churning tailback and gives the offense balance.
The strength of Florida International’s defense will be its strength up front on the defensive line. Tourek Williams, in particular, is a vaunted pass rusher for the Panthers.
Troy is the traditional power of the Sun Belt conference. The Trojans have to fill a number of holes going into next season, particularly at wide receiver. Troy also has to play at Florida International on October 25th.
Florida International has been on a steady climb under Coach Cristobal. The Panthers are now poised to take home the conference crown in 2011.
WAC: Hawaii
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Hawaii always puts up big numbers on offense and is a consistent bowl game participant. The Warriors should have the talent to take down the WAC next year though.
Hawaii came up short in the Hawaii Bowl last season, but a sizable amount of talent returns from last year's team.
The player to watch will be quarterback Bryant Moniz. Moniz threw for 5,040 yards and 39 touchdowns last season as a junior. He is a great talent for the Warriors and will once again lead a lethal Hawaii offense. I expect the offense to still run at a high level despite the departures of Greg Salas and Alexander Green.
Nevada will provide strong competition, but ultimately I expect Hawaii to emerge from the WAC as champions.
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