College Football 2011: One Reason for Every Top 25 Team to Be Pessimistic

Pessimism usually doesn't win football games, and it certainly doesn't win BCS championships.

But some people choose to call it “realism” rather than “pessimism.”

Whatever it's called, it's not a good thing, but there's usually a reason for it.

So with spring practices over, and everyone's gaze fixed firmly on the fall, what are coaches, players and fans fretting about when it comes to the upcoming 2011 season?

25. Michigan

Big Blue hasn't exactly had the best past few seasons.

There are plenty of arguments to make as to why.

Rich Rodriguez was a bad coach.

Rich Rodriguez wasn't the right coach for Michigan.

Lloyd Carr left the cupboard shockingly bare for Rich Rodriguez.

Michigan was due for down years.

God is an Ohio State fan.

Okay, so that last one can't possibly be true, but all of the other arguments have been made and discussed ad nauseam.

With new coach Brady Hoke comes new hope in Ann Arbor.

But there are plenty of reasons for U-M fans not to get their hopes up.

The largest of those reasons is the simple fact that Michigan is rebuilding. Granted, that process was shifted into overdrive with the hiring of Hoke, who is known for remarkable turnarounds in a relatively short period of time.

But that time frame probably isn't one season.

24. Georgia

To say the Bulldogs had a sluggish start to 2010 would be an understatement. If you're a Georgia fan, it would be a massively comical understatement.

For some reason, Georgia fans don't have much tolerance for losing a few early games—even if the coach in question has a lengthy history of success at Georgia.

Mark Richt is, regardless of the first five games of 2010, a great coach, and he'll continue to be great at Georgia.

But Georgia fans are quick to jump on the “all is lost” bandwagon.

Don't think that attitude doesn't affect the coaching staff or the players. They don't live in a bubble, and they do hear the criticism, whether they'll admit it or not.

Georgia has several things going for it, most notably an impressive young quarterback entering his sophomore season with lofty expectations.

But that's also the biggest cause for concern.

Aaron Murray has all the makings of a great quarterback. But he's still young, and he'll make mistakes—even after the mountain of experience he gained last season.

Georgia fans have recently shown a penchant for criticism, and if Murray has a bad game or two, which all quarterbacks do, or the Bulldogs lose a few early contests, which is possible, the Bulldog doubters will be back in full force.

When someone tells you over and over again that your team isn't very good, you may actually start to believe it.

Georgia's biggest problem going forward is its own criticism.

23. Florida

What will Gators football feel like without Urban Meyer?

No one is quite sure, but the nation will find out in four short months.

One thing is clear: it will be different.

A new coach means new schemes. And new head coach Will Muschamp and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis are already at work transforming the Florida offense.

While there are plenty of reasons to like the Gators in 2011, there are plenty of reasons for pessimism.

Even before spring practices began, there were concerns about Florida's offense—in particular their quarterback situation and offensive line.

Now that spring practice is over, it's not looking too much better.

John Brantley, the projected starter for the Gators in 2011, had an abysmal spring game.

While he's still clearly the man to beat out for the job, the real issue is the fact that Florida doesn't have the next big thing waiting in the wings to replace Brantley should he not perform to Tebow-induced Florida quarterback expectations.

While Brantley does show good command of the offense, his execution leaves something to be desired.

Combine that with a sometimes porous offensive line, and you may have a recipe for another 8-5 season.

22. Texas

Can anyone remember the last time Texas only won five games?

Here's a hint: they only had five wins because Colorado forfeited a 37-29 victory of the Longhorns.

Another hint? Texas was coming off a season in which they won the first-ever Big 12 Championship Game before getting rocked by Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl.

If you haven't figured it out yet, it was 1997.

That was a long time ago in the world of college football, and Mack Brown was 10-1 at North Carolina.

Mack Brown came to Texas, and in his first year, guided the Longhorns to a 9-3 record—setting his lowest pre-2010 wins total at Texas.

While there are some bright spots for Brown and the Longhorns coming into 2011, there is one heckuva dark cloud overhead: most of the players whose disappointing performance from last year led to Texas' fall are back for 2011.

How much tolerance will Texas fans have for mediocrity from some of these players?

We'll find out come September.

21. Missouri

Sure, the Tigers have nine offensive starters returning.

Yes, many of them are skill position players.

But Missouri has lost their field general in Blane Gabbert. And Mizzou's defense will be substantially depleted as well.

Missouri does have an advantage—if you wish to call it that—in the fact that no one is really giving them much attention, at least on a national level.

Even though Missouri has the talent in place, it's easy to be a tad pessimistic when looking at the Tigers' chances in the Big 12 in 2011.

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M are not only ranked higher, they're all in the top 10.

The top third of the Big 12 is powerful, and Missouri doesn't look as if they're in the top third of the Big 12.

20. Nebraska

It's time for some Big Ten football.

Nebraska's first season in the Big Ten could mean big things for the Cornhuskers, and the conference as a whole.

The Huskers return six on offense and seven on defense—not a ton, but not quite “rebuilding” status, either.

One key returner, we think, is Taylor Martinez. This kid really shows glimpses of greatness. He's also shown glimpses of inconsistency.

But name one other star freshman quarterback in the last 20 years that wasn't inconsistent at times?

Nebraska's biggest question mark entering 2011 has to be their receiving corps.

Last year, the passing game struggled mightily—with some big-name receivers.

This year, there are no big-name receivers.

Will Martinez and his receivers be able to make a new name for the Nebraska passing game?

Nebraska's move to the Big Ten presents other issues, as well. The Big Ten plays a different style of football than the Big 12.

While fast, mobile quarterbacks can do well, Nebraska will need to shore up a questionable offensive line that has just two returning starters from 2010 to face the very big, very powerful, very fast Big Ten front sevens.

19. Notre Dame

Brian Kelly, Dayne Crist, Manti Te'o, and company will be back in action in South Bend, and the forever optimistic Irish fans are looking for big things.

With Notre Dame's pre-season rankings, it's not inconceivable that the Fighting Irish could find themselves in a BCS game come January, but there are a few hurdles they'll have to clear before that talk becomes more than speculation.

Notre Dame has lost most of the running game from last year. Both Armando Allen and Robert Hughes are gone.

Is Dayne Crist really the type of player to whom you want to pin all of your hopes and dreams?

Crist isn't a bad quarterback. But he's not Andrew Luck, Kellen Moore, Denard Robinson, or Landry Jones, either.

With the games Notre Dame has on its schedule this year, they will need to find a running game to be successful.

As of right now, the Irish don't have one.

18. Virginia Tech

Okay, so 2010 didn't start out so great. A close loss to Boise State is nothing for which Hokies fans should be ashamed.

A loss to James Madison, on the other hand...

But the season ended up turning out just fine. An ACC title, and another trip to the Orange Bowl.

Sure, the Orange Bowl opponent was an unLucky draw, but it's time for next season.

One of the reasons Virginia Tech was able to rebound last season like they did was Tyrod Taylor.

In the latter part of 2010, Taylor was unstoppable. He was on a mission, and he was pretty darned successful considering the first two weeks of the season.

Who will be the unstoppable force for the Hokies moving forward?

No team has ever lost a player like Tyrod Taylor without missing something.

17. Mississippi State

Mississippi State had an impressive finale to 2010 with a dominating win over Michigan.

Mississippi State has a lot of talent returning for 2011, including 15 starters overall. Missing will be linebackers Emmanuel Gatling, Chris White, and Maurice Langston.

With an entirely new linebacker corps taking the field in 2011, the Bulldogs will certainly have some issues on defense.

Combine that with the fact that there are four to five SEC teams ahead of them in most preseason rankings, and the hopes for another successful season must be tempered with realism.

16. South Carolina

The defending SEC East champions enter 2011 with a lot of unanswered questions.

Sure, winning the East is all fine and dandy, but the SEC Championship loss to Auburn and the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Florida State were pretty close to embarrassing.

Add to the fact that the Gamecocks only return 13 starters from 2010 (and possibly only 12), and you have some cause for concern.

But the biggest reason to be pessimistic in Columbia can be summed up in two words: Stephen Garcia.

The fifth-year senior starting quarterback has been suspended for the second time since the end of the 2010 season, and the fifth time since he arrived in Columbia.

It's doubtful that Steve Spurrier has the courage to courage to kick this chronic foul up off the team, and he passed the buck to the university administration as quickly as he could.

Garcia, along with Marcus Lattimore, make up the heart of the Gamecocks offense. If Garcia does return, he'll be on a short leash, and if history has taught us anything about him, it's only a matter of time before he gets into trouble again.

When that happens (provided he returns at all), it will be a monstrous task for Lattimore to shoulder the sole responsibility for offensive stardom.

15. Arkansas

The 2010 season showed that Arkansas could still compete with the best programs in the nation.

Ryan Mallett was one of the top signal callers in the nation last year, and led the Hogs to the most wins since 2006.

But the Razorbacks will need to look for new leadership in 2011, as Mallett and 12 other starters won't be back next year.

Besides quarterback questions, Arkansas needs to deal with an offensive line with only two returning starters.

With those kinds of offensive holes, it's easy to see why some are pessimistic about the Hogs chances in the SEC in 2011.

14. TCU

It's not every day you get to play in the Rose Bowl—especially if you're not from the Pac-10 or Big Ten.

It's even less often you win the Rose Bowl.

TCU should be very proud of the accomplishments of the Horned Frogs. Winning the Rose Bowl with a non-AQ program is something special.

One of the big reasons for TCU's success over the past few seasons has been Andy Dalton. And Dalton was able to showcase his talent because he had a big, experienced offensive line in front of him.

Not only is that experienced line gone, Dalton is gone, too.

In fact, TCU returns just five offensive starters. Ouch.

To make matters worse, TCU is returning just five defensive starters as well. Double ouch.

It's not a stretch to find this reason for pessimism: lack of experience.

13. Auburn

Question: How do you replace Cam Newton?

Answer: You don't.

Many people point out that in 2010, Auburn wasn't even listed in many Top 25 polls. This year, they're in every single one.

While that may be true, last year they had Cam Newton. This year, they don't. They also don't have 13 other starters returning from last year.

Of all the Top 25 teams for 2011, no team has a bigger talent drain that Auburn.

Typically, defending BCS champions are placed at or very near the top of the next season's preseason rankings.

Auburn doesn't even crack the Top 10.

Even the craziest of diehard Auburn fans are forced to admit that pulling off another improbable run to the BCS title game is a little too crazy to even contemplate.

Much like TCU (but to a greater degree), the pessimism about Auburn stems from one thing and one thing only: talent drain.

12. Wisconsin

Last year saw Wisconsin win a share of the Big Ten title, and earn themselves a trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl.

The Badgers had their best season of football since an 11-1 season in 1998.

But Wisconsin will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's impressive run through the Big Ten.

The Badgers are returning 11 total starters from a year ago.

The biggest losses will come on offense, where nearly all of the skill players are gone.

Wisconsin will still have a big, powerful team in Madison, as they always do. But the 2011 team will lack the experience and raw talent that we saw in 2010.

Combine that with Wisconsin's tough schedule (which includes Nebraska, Penn State, and trips to Michigan State and Ohio State), and there's plenty of reason to doubt Wisconsin's chances in the Big Ten in 2011.

11. Michigan State

Another defending co-Big Ten champion, the Michigan State Spartans enter the 2011 cycle with high hopes.

MSU returns most of its big-name skill position players on offense, and with a quarterback like Kirk Cousins and a running back like Edwin Baker, there are some lofty expectations in East Lansing.

But Sparty has lost quite a swath of talent and leadership on defense, including team-leading tackler and All-American linebacker Greg Jones.

As if that weren't bad enough, the team's second-leading tackler, Eric Gordon, is also gone.

If there's one thing a Big Ten team can't be without, it's defense.

If there's one thing that's a huge question mark for MSU in 2011, it's defense.

10. Texas A&M

At first glance, Texas A&M seems to have all of the pieces in place to have a shot at running the table in the Big 12 in 2011.

But two high-energy, high-talent players—Von Miller and Michael Hodges—are gone.

Defensive end Lucas Patterson is also gone, but those are the only three starters departing the Aggie defense from 2010.

But if there's one area that no team in the Big 12 will be able to be without this year, it's defensive production.

Some of the nation's best offenses in 2011 will call the Big 12 home, and all 11 players will be needed on every play to keep the Big 12's prolific offenses out of the end zone.

A&M also has Oklahoma State relatively early in its 2011 schedule (Sept. 24).

The Aggies will meet Oklahoma in Norman this year on Nov. 5.

While Texas A&M may be one of the Top 10 teams in the nation to start the year, it's a puzzle to figure out if they'll be able to handle the offenses of Oklahoma State and Oklahoma as the season wears on.

9. Florida State

One of the greatest assets any team can have is talent depth.

Florida State certainly has that coming into 2011, and the depth is perhaps at it deepest since the glory days of the turn of the millennium.

Consequently, the expectations for the 2011 Seminoles are crazy high.

Florida State has had some great recruiting years, and it's the main reason they're ranked so high on most preseason lists.

But with all of the talent and all of the hype, it's sometimes hard to see (or believe) that there may be some areas in which FSU isn't so talented.

The Seminole offensive line is, at best, untested.

Not only is Florida State breaking in some new names on the line, some of the familiar names have been bitten by the injury bug all spring.

Several nagging and recurring injuries, combined with some new faces, are enough of a distraction to allow a little doubt to seep into the minds of Florida State fans.

8. Oklahoma State

If there's one thing that no one can question, it's Oklahoma State's offense.

The Cowboy offense greedily put up points in 2010, and with the entire unit returning intact, save Kendall Hunter, the easy money is on Oklahoma State again putting up some monster numbers come fall.

But the Cowboy defense kept Oklahoma State grounded in 2010. Oklahoma State needs to score as many points as it does because the defense allows points in handfuls.

In order for Oklahoma State to make the jump into the national BCS conversation, they'll need to address some glaring issues on defense.

That will be tough to do in 2011, as the front seven goes through a rebuilding phase.

That pesky, porous defense is enough to cause pessimism in the mind of even the most devout of fans.

7. Ohio State

If the NCAA or the administration at Ohio State really wanted to punish the football program, the suspensions would have been for the first five Big Ten games of 2011.

Did we really expect the suspended players to play a lot against Akron or Toledo?

Even so, head coach Jim “I-didn't-know-whom-to-tell” Tressel and his five wayward players will miss games against the University of Miami and Michigan State.

Both of those teams are going to be pretty tough opponents in 2011, even if Ohio State had everyone suited up.

Even if the Buckeyes get through those games without a loss, which is by no means certain, the sixth game on the schedule is at Nebraska.

That's one heck of a place to make your return.

The Cornhuskers will be in mid-season form while nearly half of the Buckeye offense will be playing their first game.

And that's all assuming the NCAA doesn't increase the penalties the Ohio State has already imposed.

If that's not enough to create some pessimism, there's not much that will.

6. Boise State

Kellen Moore is back and Boise State is filled with resolve after a disappointing loss to Nevada in 2010.

So what could possible cause any pessimism in Boise?

Kellen Moore is certainly one of the top players in college football, and enters the 2011 season as a Heisman contender.

But great quarterbacks usually require great receivers. If there's no one to throw to, there's not much point.

Two venerable starters, Austin Pettis and Titus Young, are gone. In fact, fully half of Boise State's offensive starters lost are receivers.

There will be little starting experience for those wideouts left in Boise, and it is unclear as to whether they can be big-time playmakers by catching bombs from Moore.

5. Stanford

Stanford faithful were overjoyed with Andrew Luck announced his intention to earn a degree from Stanford.

That meant at least one more year of the bona fide Heisman contender playing for the Cardinal.

If you remove Luck from the Stanford equation, though, there's more than enough reason for some pessimistic thoughts to enter one's mind.

Including Luck, Stanford only returns five offensive starters, none of which are wide receivers.

The offensive line returns just two of the five starters from 2010.

The defensive side of the ball isn't much better, and the Cardinal lose starters at nose tackle, defensive end, inside linebacker, outside linebacker, and corner.

Yes, Andrew Luck is a phenomenal player.

Phenomenal players are made so by their supporting cast, and the colossal turnover Stanford is faced with this year could spell trouble in the new Pac-12.

4. Oregon

The Ducks had easily the best year in their program's history in 2010.

While there's always the BCS hangover to deal with, the Ducks will probably have more pressing concerns on their hands.

While the prolific Ducks offenses returns for another run at the Pac-12 and BCS, the defensive front seven was decimated and returns just one starter from last season.

Putting up points never seems to be Oregon's problem.

Keeping the other team from scoring has been a problem, and it doesn't look like the issue will be solved for 2011.

Maybe the adage is true: defense wins championships.

The Ducks' defense in 2011 is a major cause of pessimism. What does that mean for their championship chances?

3. LSU

A lot of people were surprised by LSU last year.

After all, LSU wasn't really picked to win the SEC, and they were underdogs in many of the games, especially early in the season.

After a few close calls, and some fairly embarrassing clock-management issues, LSU surprised and impressed many people across the nation.

Now that their returning talent has proven itself, it wasn't too much of a stretch to put LSU this high in the preseason—especially given the talent LSU has accumulated through recruiting over the past few seasons.

But LSU has a tough road ahead in 2011.

The season begins with a Top Five showdown with Oregon in Arlington, Texas.

After easily dispatching FCS Northwestern State, LSU is faced with games at Mississippi State and West Virginia.

LSU's biggest game of 2011 will come on the road, at Tuscaloosa on Nov. 5.

With some top opponents on the schedule (inside and outside of the SEC), there will be no room for error—especially the types of errors we saw in 2010.

LSU's ability to flub their way into undesirable situations is the main cause of pessimism in Baton Rouge.

2. Alabama

After disappointing Tide fans in 2010 by not winning a second consecutive BCS title, the Tide are once again at or near the top of most preseason lists.

There are plenty of reasons to be high on the Tide this year, especially considering the talent and experience they return on both sides of the football.

After easily dispatching co-Big Ten champion Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl, the Tide are hoping for a bowl game a little bigger this year.

While they seem to have many of the pieces in place, it's hard not to notice the giant question mark over the head of new starting quarterback, sophomore AJ McCarron.

Or is it Phillip Sims?

There's a competition underway in Tuscaloosa for the starting quarterback spot, and head coach Nick Saban has eluded to the fact that the competition won't be solved until August, at the earliest.

The main problem is that Alabama has two great talents in McCarron and Sims. So whom do you start?

The longer the quarterback competition drags on, the more of a issue it could become.

God forbid that Saban falls into the oft-ailing trap of not being able to make up his mind.

1. Oklahoma

With everything that's been said about Oklahoma, and everything we can see, it might be hard for some to believe that there's anything that could cause Oklahoma fans any kind of pessimism for the 2011 season.

After all, the Sooners are pretty much a consensus top pick, right?

Well, if you look at the headlines the Sooners have made since their dismantling of UConn in the Fiesta Bowl, they've all be negative headlines.

Kenny Stills and Tony Jefferson were arrested.

Then, Stacy McGee was arrested.

Then, OU self-reported to the NCAA regarding a series of NCAA rules violations regarding off-season workouts.

Then Jamell Flemming was suspended for academic reasons, and that suspension may not resolve until into the fall semester—especially critical because cornerback in one position at which Oklahoma is not particularly deep.

Basically, there's nothing on the field that presents much of a problem for the Sooners.

Off the field, however, there are distractions galore.

And distractions never cause anything good.