College Football 2011: The One Trap Game for Every FBS Team
With only a few precious exceptions, this season all 120 FBS teams will either survive a near miss or tragically drop a game to a team they should have beaten badly.
This slideshow attempts to identify a potential “trap” for each FBS team—a game that may surprise all of us and, most importantly, may be a shock to the team that is the target of the bombshell.
It is our aim to uncover what's not obvious and expose a carefully disguised wolf in a red hood.
It is important to clarify that I’m not claiming each of these games will definitely be shocking losses. Instead, I’m just presenting a case for why each opponent could be a “trap” for the team listed—preying on a weakness or placed in the schedule where it might be overlooked.
Boston College
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Boston College vs. UMass: Saturday, September 24
The Eagles would seem to have a lot more to worry about than FCS UMass in 2011.
Sure, at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, at Maryland, at Notre Dame, at Miami (FL) and UMass...at home? One of these things doesn’t belong with the others.
But the Minutemen are headed up and out of the FCS in 2012; the destination is the Mid-American Conference.
What better way to prove their worthiness than beat a local team, the big boys from the ACC, on their way out of the FCS?
Boston College is 18-5 all-time against UMass and has outscored the Minutemen 591-313; hardly a game you fear, especially amidst a schedule full of dangerous opponents.
The perfect storm.
Clemson
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Clemson vs. Auburn: Saturday, September 17
Clemson should be 2-0 when it prepares to host defending national champion Auburn in Week 3.
Auburn, on the other hand, thick in the throes of rebuilding, will have more than likely beaten Utah State in Week 1 and then hosted a good Mississippi State team in Week 2, a game that could go either way.
Though Clemson might consider 2011 a perfect year to finally end its 14-game losing skid against Auburn, don’t be surprised if Auburn (who will be more tested by the third week of the schedule) turns some heads by giving Clemson all it can handle.
The Clemson Tigers are 11-34-2 against the Auburn Tigers; the last time they beat them was in 1951, when they won 34-0.
Duke
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Duke at Florida International: Saturday, October 1
The Blue Devils and Golden Panthers have never met in football.
Though FIU hails from the Sun Belt and teams from the ACC are 17-2 against Sun Belt opponents, Duke against FIU makes a compelling case for win No. 3.
The Golden Panthers have only been playing football since 2002, and their 7-6 mark in 2010 was the high-water mark in their short history.
Though FIU might look like easy fodder for Duke, it’s interesting to note that this clash matches up the No. 27-ranked rushing offense in 2010 (FIU) and the No. 113-ranked rushing defense (Duke).
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Florida State
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Florida State at Clemson: Saturday, September 24
One of the most anticipated non-conference matchups in 2011 is the Week 3 clash between the Seminoles and Sooners in Tallahassee.
The matchup presents two national title contenders putting their high hopes on the line; one walks away with the sky as the limit, while the other can only hope for a conference title and BCS bid.
One of those games where the crystal football either slips away or shifts tantalizingly nearer.
After the Seminoles' ugly visit to Norman in 2010, which resulted in a 47-17 loss to the Sooners, the 2011 clash could result in more than mere revenge.
So if FSU beats Oklahoma in Week 3, the tomahawks go nutty and the Seminoles begin to think they can party like it's 1999.
Next is that little road trip to Clemson to face a team that went only 6-7 last season and hardly seems like a major threat.
Well, until you consider how many times teams have lost the game after they knocked off the No. 1 team in the country.
FSU is 17-7 all-time against Clemson; the Tigers last won in 2009, when they shellacked the Seminoles 40-24.
Georgia Tech
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Georgia Tech at NC State: Saturday, October 1
What if Georgia Tech somehow reloads and manages to go 4-0 or 3-1 into its Week 5 trip to NC State?
The Wolfpack may have also won three or four games by Week 5 but are still retooling from huge offensive setbacks of their own.
The Yellow Jacket faithful begin to believe that Paul Johnson is bringing the Ramblin’ Wreck back into contention and the 2010 6-7 finish was just a blip on the radar.
But Georgia Tech is still running the option, still getting it done on the ground (hey, they were the No. 1-ranked team in rushing yards last season) and is about to run into a defensive buzz saw.
The Yellow Jackets averaged over 320 yards per game on the ground in 2010, but when they met the Wolfpack last season, they managed only 247 yards in a game that ended 27-15 in NC State’s favor.
The Wolfpack ranked No. 14 overall in rushing defense in 2010, which could spell disaster, again, for Georgia Tech in 2011.
Maryland
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Maryland vs. West Virginia: Saturday, September 17
The Terrapins went 9-4 in 2010, which marked their best finish since 2004 and included an absolute dismantling of East Carolina (51-20) in the Military Bowl.
Hopes should be high going into 2011, which begins with a tough opener at home versus Miami (FL). Win or lose, Maryland fans should still, especially after a bye in Week 2, have great expectations going into the Week 3 game hosting West Virginia in College Park.
The Mountaineers, on the other hand, will have faced Marshall and FCS Norfolk State (both in Morgantown) and will have begun to gel offensively under new OC Dana Holgorsen.
Unfortunately for the Terrapins, Week 3 could be the game when West Virginia’s offense starts to explode under Leach Air Raid disciple Holgorsen—not good news for a team ranked No. 77 in passing defense in 2010.
Though Maryland might be taken off guard by the 350-yard-plus Mountaineer passing display, the Terrapins' struggle might serve as an example for the rest of WVU’s 2011 opponents.
Miami (FL)
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Miami vs. Ohio State: Saturday, September 17
The “U” will no doubt feel more confident hosting Ohio State considering the ongoing woes of the Buckeye nation.
The “Tat Five” will be gone, as will coach Jim Tressel; the only question about the Vest is whether he’ll still be living in Columbus or perhaps be on the bus to an SEC location.
After beating Toledo and Akron, the Buckeyes will prepare for their trip to Miami while the nation looks on, anxious for the dilapidated Buckeyes to fall further from grace.
But what if Ohio State reloads? What if the master “Plan B” is indeed masterful? Yes, what if year after year of successful recruiting and depth equals superiority even without the Body Art bandits?
What if Ohio State keeps winning anyway?
NC State
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NC State at Virginia: Saturday, October 22
What if the Wolfpack are 6-0 going into their Week 7 break?
Yes, what if they have reeled off six consecutive wins and face only a road trip to hapless Virginia before the big ACC Coastal showdown with Florida State?
Finally, NC State has a chance to capture its first ACC title since 1979, and only the Seminoles stand in their way.
But wait! The Cavaliers are barriers too, and in their second year under coach Mike London, surely they will be improved.
Here’s the compelling bit: NC State’s only solid statistical weakness in 2010 was pass defense, where it ranked No. 77, and by great coincidence the Cavaliers' only statistical strength was passing offense, where they ranked No. 25.
Provocative.
North Carolina
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North Carolina vs. Louisville: Saturday, October 8
North Carolina is another team faced with a rebuilding task in 2011. Still, you could make an argument that the Tar Heels could be a zero- to one-loss team after their Week 5 game at East Carolina.
That leads into the October 8 home game against Louisville, another team putting a team back together in 2011.
But the Cardinals showed great promise in 2010 under new coach Charlie Strong, who led Louisville to a 7-6 finish, which marked their best win total since Bobby Petrino coached his final season there in 2006.
Surprisingly, the Cardinals lead the Tar Heels 3-2 in their all-time series. The last time North Carolina beat Louisville was in 1996.
Frankly, Louisville is easy to overlook, especially in a home game. This could be a costly error.
Virginia
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Virginia at Indiana: Saturday, September 10
It’s tough to pick a “trap” game for a team that finished 4-8 in 2010; the only wins were over FCS Richmond, FCS Virginia Military Institute, Eastern Michigan and a shocker over Miami (FL).
Really, every game in 2011 could be an intriguing test for the Cavaliers, who haven’t won a game since the end of October.
I’m going with the road trip to Indiana in Week 2. Virginia should handle FCS William & Mary in the opener, and the visit to Indiana will be huge in determining how the rest of the season goes.
The Hoosiers present an interesting challenge because they are a team from a formidable conference that struggled in 2010, has a new coach and looks beatable on paper.
Yes, this is a game the Cavaliers should win and really need to win to improve from last season, which is exactly what makes it dangerous.
Virginia Tech
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Virginia Tech vs. Boston College: Saturday, October 22
With QB Tyrod Taylor and two of the top running backs gone, the Hokies will have to lean on a defense that retooled successfully in 2010 (the Hokie defense was predicted to be a challenge for Virginia Tech last season but wound up being the No. 26-ranked unit in the nation).
The entire receiving corps is back, as is RB David Wilson (the No. 3 rusher), which should make the transition somewhat easier, but this is a team that ranked No. 23 in rushing yards and only No. 72 in passing yards.
What’s interesting about the home game against Boston College is threefold. First, it looks like a game that should be “winnable,” which is always dangerous (the Hokies are 13-6 all time against BC); secondly, it’s placed on the schedule between Wake Forest and Duke, which are also games that look less ominous; and third and perhaps most significant, Boston College presents a huge defensive challenge for the Hokies.
The Eagles ranked No. 19 in scoring defense in 2011, second in the ACC only to Clemson, which ranked No. 13; additionally, BC ranked No. 1 in rushing “D” in 2010.
Yes, Boston College also faces retooling, but if you are trying to put a new offense on the field, the most harrowing opponent might be one with a great defense.
Wake Forest
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Wake Forest at Syracuse: Saturday, September 3
After going 11-3 in 2006, the Demon Deacons have slowly slid backwards, ultimately lowering their win totals as time has gone by.
Nine wins in 2007, eight wins in 2008, five wins in 2009 and then only three in 2010.
You have to wonder how long Jim Grobe can keep afloat in Winston-Salem.
Just like every other team in the nation, Grobe and company will be primed to prove that they have indeed improved as they start the 2011 schedule.
This is where things could go terribly wrong. Syracuse, which just came off its best season since 2001, will be equally eager to prove that last season wasn’t just some orange-colored aberration.
Despite going 8-5 in 2010, Syracuse may still, at least on paper, look like the team that won only 14 total games in the previous five seasons.
The Orange did it defensively (No. 17 overall in scoring “D”)—not good news for a Wake Forest team that ranked No. 91 in points scored.
Baylor
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Baylor at Kansas State: Saturday, October 1
After making big amends to the football people of Waco, Texas in 2010, the Baylor Bears look to do even more in 2011.
Obvious hurdles for the Bears are road games at Texas A&M and at Oklahoma State and big home games against Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas.
But what looms as a hidden challenge amidst the big tests is the October 1 road trip to Kansas State.
Why? Well, it will be the No. 22-ranked passing offense (the Wildcats, not Bears) against the No. 114-ranked passing defense (Baylor).
Yes, the Bears can also light it up through the air, but they have a problem stopping it defensively.
Iowa State
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Iowa State vs. Texas: Saturday, October 1
Iowa State’s 5-7 record in 2010 must be looked at relative to the fact that the Cyclones played what Phil Steele rated the hardest schedule in college football.
In 2011 Iowa State won’t be overlooking anyone but will be playing without the services QB Austen Arnaud.
Despite the fact that the Longhorns barely beat the Cyclones in 2010, the Texas game hardly seems like a “trap” game.
But this very well could be when Texas starts playing like Texas again. It’s the conference opener, the Longhorns' fourth game of the season and time to show the nation that they’re contenders again.
Expecting another seven- or 10-point game might be a mistake.
Kansas
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Kansas vs. Northern Illinois: September 10
Kansas simply did not play well in 2010, and this makes it extremely hard to select a “trap” game.
However, the Week 2 matchup with Northern Illinois at least creates some interesting angles.
The Jayhawks should be able to handle FCS McNeese State in Week 1 and may overlook a MAC team in the second week with a trip to Georgia Tech pending in Week 3.
But Northern Illinois went 11-3 in 2010, ranked No. 12 in scoring and No. 14 in defense and won’t be easy to beat.
The problem with a game with a good team from a non-BCS conference is that, if you lose, it looks bad regardless of how good the opponent actually is.
Will Kansas overlook Northern Illinois? Probably not, but regardless, if they lose this game Jayhawk fans may immediately sound the alarms signaling another rough season at Kansas.
Momentum is so important.
Kansas State
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Kansas State at Kansas: Saturday, October 22
Yes, Kansas State was a much better football team than Kansas in 2010, but this is a rivalry game.
The Jayhawks lead the overall series 65-38-5, but the Wildcats hold a 21-6 advantage against Kansas since 1990.
What’s interesting about this game is that amid a slam fest of Big 12 opponents, the Jayhawks may look too easy, while in reality the only statistical strength (a word being used very loosely) Kansas enjoyed in 2010 was rushing yards, which matches up well with Kansas State’s biggest weakness last season, defending the run.
Kansas State ranked No. 119 in rushing defense in 2010, allowing over 231 yards on the ground per game.
Missouri
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Missouri vs. Miami (OH): Saturday, September 3
Early-season games featuring a new quarterback are always intriguing, as they provide a first look at how a guy performs under actual game-day conditions.
The advantage the new QB at Missouri will have coming into 2011 is the return of virtually all of the Tiger team from 2010.
Still, there will be a learning curve, and though the MAC’s Miami (OH) might look like a good “preseason”-type game, the RedHawks were one of the most surprisingly successful teams in 2010.
Miami finished 10-4, won the MAC and returns 18 starters from last season’s team.
Will Missouri really drop a game to Miami (OH)?
Though it seems like a stretch, the Tigers cannot afford to overlook what will be a very good RedHawk team.
Oklahoma
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Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas): Saturday, October 8
The Sooners' road to their eighth national title looks fairly simple: First, you've got to beat Florida State on the road, and then the biggest hurdles are Missouri in Norman, Texas A&M (also in Norman) and the huge trip to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State in the finale.
No Big 12 championship game, no Nebraska game and, as a bonus, super rival Texas looks questionable at best.
But what if the biggest test on the Sooners' schedule is the Longhorns, not the Seminoles?
It’s ridiculous to say Oklahoma will “overlook” Texas, but this game may seem less of a threat than it has in the past.
The bottom line is that the Red River Rivalry is not just a huge rivalry game (and who knows how rivalry games will turn out, regardless of who the better team is supposed to be), but it will also be played between TWO very talented, athletic, powerful teams, not just one.
I’m just saying...what if this game decides the Big 12 title, and Texas is the winner?
Oklahoma State
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Oklahoma State vs. Arizona: Saturday, September 8
When you think of Oklahoma State, you may remember the explosive team that went 11-2 in 2010 on the back of an offense that ranked a lofty No. 3 in scoring.
When you think of Arizona, you might remember the promising beginning to 2010 and then the season-ending five-game losing skid that ultimately finished with the Wildcats at 7-6.
When you think of Oklahoma State and Arizona together, you might remember the 36-10 Cowboy victory in the 2010 Alamo Bowl, which was the last game both teams played.
It was a team sliding heartbreakingly backwards being dominated by a team surging triumphantly upwards.
So the Cowboys will take it to the Wildcats in their Week 2 meeting in Stillwater, right?
Well, it’s the No. 45-ranked pass defense (Arizona) taking on the No. 2-ranked passing offense (Oklahoma State), which just so happens will be playing its second game without OC Dana Holgorsen.
Perhaps even more intriguing, it will be the No. 9-ranked passing offense (Arizona) clashing with the No. 115-ranked pass defense (Oklahoma State).
Don’t assume this game will be a repeat of the 2010 Alamo Bowl.
Texas
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Texas vs. BYU: Saturday, September 10
Amid all the talk of Oregon versus LSU, Georgia versus Boise State, Oklahoma against Florida State and Alabama taking on Penn State, what about BYU at Texas?
This may be one of the most underrated non-conference matchups in 2011.
Though most folks may be more focused on how Texas plays than whom they are playing, don’t forget about the Cougars, who (while the Longhorns kept playing worse last season) continued to play better as the 2010 season progressed.
Mack Brown and Texas are going to be ready, in a big way, to prove to the world that they are back, but what if BYU is a better team? What if BYU is THE better team?
If the Longhorns can’t start playing like they have to win, as opposed to playing like they are sure they can win (and therefore can’t lose), they will lose to BYU.
Texas A&M
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Texas A&M at Texas Tech: Saturday, October 8
As a Texas Tech fan, I realize that this pick might seem like a homer, especially given the tempestuous relationship betwixt the Aggies and Red Raiders.
But as a disclaimer, I would like to state that from a completely logical standpoint the Red Raiders have no business beating the Aggies in 2011.
The Aggies are primed to win a bunch of games next season, they are stacked with experienced, talented athletes and they will be a formidable foe to every single team on their schedule.
The Red Raiders, on the other hand, are rebuilding their team under second-year head coach Tommy Tuberville. They are still searching for an identity on both sides of the ball, and they are very, very young.
All this logic is exactly why the Aggies should fear this game: because they absolutely should not lose it.
The Tech fans will be wild, willing their team to beat the hated Aggies, urging them to ruin their season. The Aggies will come directly off an emotional win or loss against a good Arkansas team.
Texas A&M won’t overlook this game, but it may be wise for the Aggies not to count it as a win prematurely (especially when they will face far greater threats this season).
Texas Tech
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Texas Tech vs. Baylor (in Cowboy Stadium): Saturday, November 26
Though the 2011 Texas Tech Red Raiders should fear every single team on their schedule, from FCS Texas State, Nevada and Iowa State all the way through Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Missouri, the season will end against a familiar foe that presents Tech with a Herculean task.
In the closer it’s Baylor, which is the game you have to win to at least validate an “OK” season. Yes, Baylor has its best team in years, but still, you don’t want to lose to the Bears.
Baylor returns most of its offensive firepower in 2011 and an “O” that ranked No. 19 overall in passing offense, while the Red Raiders sported a pass defense that ranked a dismal No. 118 in 2010.
Not a good combination when you are trying to add to a 15-game win streak over a team that hasn’t beaten you since 1995.
Though Tech could lose to any number of combinations of opponents next season, Red Raider fans should hope that it doesn’t need a win over Baylor to extend its nation-leading bowl eligibility streak.
Yes, for the love of God, please have at least six wins going into this game.
Cincinnati
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Cincinnati at Miami (OH): Saturday, October 1
Sadly, it almost seemed as if the Bearcats virtually dropped off the earth when Brian Kelly left for South Bend before the end of 2009 season.
It certainly didn’t help that the eight losses Cincinnati posted in 2010 were more defeats than the Bearcats had racked up over the last three seasons combined.
Though Cincinnati should improve in 2011, the game at Miami (OH) presents some interesting challenges.
First, it’s a game, when scanning the Bearcats' schedule, that should be marked as a “win,” which makes it dangerous to begin with.
Second, and really surprisingly, the Bearcats are 49-59-7 all-time against the RedHawks, and though Cincinnati has won the last five over Miami, it went 1-4 in the games previous to the last five.
It’s not like these were played in the 1950s; all four recent losses have come since 2000.
Third, we know that Miami (OH) won 10 games last season, won the MAC and returns 18 starters in 2011.
This game could get interesting.
Connecticut
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UConn at Vanderbilt: Saturday, September 10
Fresh off their first ever BCS appearance, the Huskies return 17 starters from their eight-win team in 2010.
UConn opens up the 2011 season against FCS Fordham and should easily be 1-0 by the time it travels south to face Vanderbilt.
Vandy looks to offer the perfect opportunity for an early-season win against an SEC opponent on the road.
But don’t be hasty in underestimating Vanderbilt. The Commodores return 21 starters from 2010, the most of any team in the FBS.
Yes, Vandy struggled to a 2-10 record last season, but it will certainly improve with everyone coming back, and what more perfect way to scream “WE’RE BACK!” than beating UConn, which took a fortuitous ride on the 2010 BCS Express.
Louisville
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Louisville at UConn: Saturday, November 19
Despite the fact that the Cardinals return only 11 starters in 2010, it will be exciting to see if coach Charlie Strong can continue to right the ship in Louisville.
Louisville’s pre-Thanksgiving trip to UConn will certainly not be overlooked, but it is where it fits into the schedule that makes it interesting.
The UConn game offers a relative breath of fresh air, as it follows a road trip to West Virginia followed immediately by a home game against Pitt, and it falls before the season finale at USF.
Suddenly, this game looks like a respite even though the Huskies are a good team. This all becomes infinitely more significant if the Cardinals are trying to find a win or two to reach bowl eligibility in their last four games.
Nothing is more dangerous than saying something along the lines of, “Okay, we need two wins; we can beat UConn, and then will have to just find one win in the other three...”
Pittsburgh
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Pittsburgh vs. USF: Saturday, September 29
After not achieving its lofty dreams in 2010, Pitt enters 2011 with a new head coach and a healthy number of returning starters from last season.
The other big benefit for the Panthers is that the media hype train has left Pitt for sunny Arizona State, Morgantown, West Virginia and Columbia, South Carolina, leaving Pitt free to get on with the important work of improving its football team.
OK, so what if—and this is a big “if”—Pitt wins at Iowa and then beats Notre Dame at home in Pittsburgh?
Well, it could happen, and when USF comes to town in Week 5, it will no doubt look considerably less daunting, as the Bulls are in a bit of a retooling phase in Tampa.
Oh, but USF is talented, and it could knock Pitt right off its newfound pedestal.
Rutgers
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Rutgers at Syracuse: Saturday, October 1
In 2010 the Scarlet Knights suffered their worst finish since Greg Schiano’s first two seasons at Rutgers.
To improve the Knights will have to find a way to reignite an offense that was absolutely anemic in 2010 (No. 101 overall in points scored).
The perfect way back to respectability in the Big East is to win the conference opener against Syracuse, which played better in 2010 but is still a team that Rutgers has beaten in four out of the last six tries.
Come on, this is Syracuse. It’s not West Virginia, it’s not Pitt—it’s not even USF.
But the Orange are not exactly the sort of team you can expect to improve your offense while playing.
Syracuse ranked No. 17 in scoring defense in 2010, which could be a poor matchup for impotent Rutgers.
Syracuse
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Syracuse vs. Toledo: Saturday, September 24
Syracuse’s thrilling 8-5 run in 2010 was the Orange’s best finish since going 10-3 in 2001.
Without a doubt Syracuse fans will enter the upcoming season with a much more hopeful outlook than they did in 2010.
Most thrilling among the Orange’s 2011 slate is a September 17 road trip to USC. The Orange and Trojans have only met twice previously, in Los Angeles in 1924 and then in the Kickoff Classic in East Rutherford NJ in late August of 1990.
Both meetings resulted in USC victories.
Win or lose, the USC game will be huge, and then the following weekend it's back to reality and a home game against Toledo.
You would be hard pressed to find two back-to-back opponents with a wider gap of stark differences: USC and then Toledo.
But Toledo went 8-5 in 2010, and it returns a whopping 19 starters from last year’s team (tied for No. 3 nationally).
What if Toledo poses almost as big as a challenge as USC, and what if it is flying so far under the radar that no one even realizes that fact until it’s too late?
USF
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USF vs. Ball State: Saturday, September 10
Whether it makes any sense or not, every team that has Notre Dame on its schedule counts the Irish game as one of the biggest blockbuster contests of their season.
Yes, whether you travel to South Bend or if the Fighting Irish come to you, it’s downright exciting.
In 2011 the USF Bulls will open their season with their first-ever meeting against Notre Dame, and they will travel to the holy grail of college football, South Bend, to do so.
It’s Skip Holtz loading up the family and traveling to his old hometown of South Bend, where father Lou Holtz spent 11 glorious seasons.
But after the love is gone, win or lose, it’s on to hosting Ball State in Tampa.
I’m not saying USF is going to beat Notre Dame and then lose to Ball State, and I’m not saying that the Bulls are going to lose to Notre Dame in a close game and then lose to Ball State.
I’m just saying that USF is undergoing some serious retooling, which makes games against “weaker” opponents that immediately follow thrilling opportunities against “big” programs loom even more dangerously.
West Virginia
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West Virginia at Syracuse: Saturday, October 21
If what OC Dana Holgorsen did last season at Oklahoma State is any indication of what will happen at West Virginia in 2011, things could get exciting.
With most of the offensive skill players returning, Holgorsen will have lots to work with to get his variation on Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” attack running at full throttle.
If that happens, the most dangerous opponent for the Mountaineers is a team with a stellar pass defense, and that team is Syracuse.
Syracuse was No. 7 nationally defending the pass, and it allowed only 164.2 yards through the air.
This could be the unlikely game that derails the shiny, yard-guzzling West Virginia Express.
Illinois
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Illinois vs. Arizona State: Saturday, September 17
The Illini have been successfully running the ball for several years, and even with the loss of back Mikel Leshoure, it’s hard to see Illinois not continuing to get it done on the ground.
That’s exactly what makes the Arizona State game during Week 3 so dangerous.
Though the Sun Devils struggled to hit the .500 mark in 2010, one of the real positives last season was a rush defense that ranked No. 17, allowing only 120 yards per game on the ground.
If the Illini are going to rely on running the ball, they may struggle mightily when the now highly touted Sun Devils come to town.
Indiana
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Indiana vs. Northwestern: Saturday, October 29
After facing a string of opponents including the likes of Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa, a game against lowly Northwestern looks pretty darn sweet.
It looks even more attractive when you look down the road and see your next two opponents, Ohio State and Michigan State.
But Northwestern is led by QB Dan Persa, who, if healthy, can make the Wildcats just as dangerous as anyone in the Big Ten.
Despite missing the last two regular season games (and the bowl game) due to an injury suffered in the Iowa game, Persa was the No. 9-ranked passer in the nation in 2010.
If he is back in starting form again in 2011, the Hoosiers' No. 93-ranked pass defense may struggle against the Wildcat aerial attack.
Iowa
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Iowa at Minnesota: Saturday, October 29
Iowa has won all but three of its last 11 games against Minnesota, which of course includes the Hawkeyes' 27-24 loss to the Golden Gophers last season.
Given last year's three point loss to Minnesota, surely Iowa won’t be overlooking its rivals to the north in 2011.
But Iowa’s potential troubles with the Golden Gophers may have more to do with the fact the Hawkeyes only return 10 starters in 2011 and Minnesota brings back 15 from a team that began to show improvement at the end of last season.
Is it truly a team that is rebuilding against a team that will steadily improve, which could equal the first back-to-back Minnesota over Iowa victories since 1999-2000?
It hardly seems scientific, but is it an idea worth entertaining?
Michigan
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Michigan vs. Western Michigan: Saturday, September 3
Seriously, the Brady Hoke era at Michigan won’t begin with a loss to Western Michigan. I mean, the Wolverines will triumph over the lowly Broncos, and then fireworks will start during Week 2 when Notre Dame comes calling.
Right?
Western Michigan has only faced the Wolverines five times in history. All five games were played in Ann Arbor, and all five were won by Michigan. The total combined score: 178-59.
Hardly the stuff that screams, “Caution – Do Not Enter – Beware!”
However, let’s remember that (without considering any improvements) Michigan ranked No. 112 in passing defense in 2010, while those little Broncos from Western Michigan ranked a lofty No. 16 in passing yards nationally.
Things that make you go "Hmmmmmmm..."
Michigan State
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Michigan State vs. Central Michigan: Saturday, September 24
Nestled happily between road trips to Notre Dame and Ohio State, it’s a breath of fresh air—Central Michigan comes to East Lansing to get whipped by ole Sparty.
It’s bad enough that this game is difficult not to overlook, but the Chippewas, only one year removed from going 12-2, seem to have begun to reload offensively, touting the No. 17-ranked passing offense in the land last season.
The Spartans allowed over 200 yards of passing per game in 2010, and they will be without two starting members of their secondary in 2011.
Central Michigan is 3-4-0 all-time against Michigan State, but the last time the two met (in 2009) the Chippewas defeated the Spartans, 29-27, in East Lansing.
Minnesota
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Minnesota vs. Illinois: Saturday, November 26
The Golden Gophers' 2011 schedule is hardly friendly for a team trying to start winning a substantial number of football games.
At USC, at Michigan, at Michigan State and at home against Miami (OH), Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Wisconsin.
Brutal.
Picking a trap game for Minnesota is almost impossible; it’s like picking which land mine is the ugliest or most dangerous.
But what will more than likely be the most hazardous opponents for the Golden Gophers in 2011 are the teams that look beatable only because they weren’t among the top performers of 2010.
Teams like Illinois, who went 7-6 rather than 11-2.
However, pegging the Illini might be a mistake because they can run the ball (No. 11-ranked in 2010) and Minnesota hasn’t been able to stop it (No. 98 against the run in 2010).
Nebraska
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Nebraska at Minnesota: Saturday, October 22
Nebraska worrying about playing Minnesota in 2011 seems like sheer nonsense, especially given the fact the Cornhuskers' first-ever Big Ten slate includes trips to Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan and home games with Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa.
Why worry about that five bucks you owe your sister when you owe your dad 500 dollars?
Which is exactly why the Golden Gophers present a perfect candidate to trip up a team like Nebraska. They look like an easier opponent, and they appear in the schedule immediately after an open date that was preceded by a nasty little run of games including at Wisconsin and against Ohio State in Lincoln.
Surprisingly, Minnesota is 29-20-2 all-time against Nebraska. Even though the Golden Gophers hold the overall advantage in the series, they haven’t beaten the Cornhuskers since 1960.
The two haven’t met in 20 years.
I really can’t see Minnesota toppling Nebraska, especially in Lincoln, but it could be more interesting than expected.
Northwestern
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Northwestern at Army: Saturday, September 17
Regardless of whether or not QB Dan Persa is completely back from last season’s injury, the Wildcats will have to play better defense to continue to improve.
The Wildcats ranked No. 95 versus the pass and No. 92 against the run last season and overall were ranked No. 77 in scoring defense.
An unlikely threat early in Northwestern’s season comes via a road trip to West Point to face Army, which ranked No. 8 in rushing yards in 2010.
Not only will the Wildcats have to stop Army’s ground attack, but they will be faced with moving the ball on a team that allowed less than 200 yards per game through the air.
A game with Army and getting to play at Army almost seems like a novelty until they leave you with nothing but bad memories and a big “L.”
Ohio State
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Ohio State vs. Colorado: Saturday, September 24
When you look ahead to Ohio State’s 2011 schedule, you obviously (now that you’ve been debriefed on the tattoos, lies and suspensions) are drawn to the first five games, when the Buckeyes will be without their coach and five of their best players.
Akron and Toledo are understandably discounted simply because they will be outpaced from a personnel standpoint, and this brings you to the next two obvious threats: a road trip to Miami (FL) and a home game against Michigan State.
Logically, these are precisely the games where the concern should lie, but what about the “other” opponent? Yes, what about Colorado?
The Buffaloes (now members of the Pac-12) return a whopping 17 starters (tied for No. 5 nationally) from a team that just looked better and better after Dan Hawkins was dismissed after the Kansas game.
But the Buffaloes, really? Seriously?
Which is exactly why they may be the most dangerous opponent among the “first five”—nobody thinks they are.
Penn State
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Penn State at Temple: Saturday, September 17
Talk about a golden opportunity to overlook a team...Penn State’s true level of concern about its Week 3 meeting with Temple must be underwhelming.
Sure, Temple has only beaten Penn State three times in 40 tries, and the last time it won was in 1941, when it bested the Nittany Lions 14-0 in Philly.
Over the entire series Penn State has outscored the Owls 1,192-354.
So why even consider them a trap in 2011 when even Al Golden is gone?
First, the game comes directly after the Alabama game in Happy Valley. If Penn State were to win (and they could) or play the Tide tight, the letdown game could be next.
Second, Temple ranked an impressive No. 16 in scoring defense in 2010, which may make points even harder to come by for a PSU team that ranked No. 81 in scoring offense.
Could it happen? Sure, I guess so.
Will it? You would have to think not. But you just never know.
Purdue
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Purdue at Rice: Saturday, September 10
Purdue struggled to a 4-8 record in 2010, and from a statistical standpoint its weaknesses were an anemic offense that ranked No. 105 in scoring (they ran for more yards than they passed for) and a defense that was more effective against the run than the air attack.
Rice is a team that couldn’t stop the pass in 2010 but did a good job stopping the run; offensively it scored almost 30 points per game.
The Rice Owls seem to present an easy opponent for a team that is facing a full Big Ten schedule, but the Owls are only two years past a 10-3 season, and 2010 showed plenty of improvement.
Of all Purdue’s 2011 opponents (with the exception of FCS Southeast Missouri State), Rice is the one team that Boilermaker fans might identify as a win they can count on.
That and the fact Purdue’s only statistical strength (rushing yards) matches up well with Rice’s only statistical strength (defending the rush) make the road trip to Houston to play a Rice a mildly dodgy affair.
Wisconsin
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Wisconsin vs. Northern Illinois: Saturday, September 17
One of Northern Illinois’ real strengths in its 11-3 2010 season was a defense that ranked No. 14 in scoring; more significant in this case is the fact that the Huskies ranked No. 24 in stopping the run.
Yes, in 2010 Northern Illinois allowed only 126.5 yards per game on the ground.
But are the Huskies a lion in lamb's clothing for the mighty Badgers of Wisconsin? Well, seeing how Wisconsin, now minus QB Scott Tolzien, will rely even more on the super duo of backs James White and Montee Ball, from a rushing standpoint, maybe so.
Can NIU beat Wisconsin?
It would seem fantastic at best, but this is a very interesting early season matchup.
East Carolina
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East Carolina vs. UAB: Saturday, September 24
ECU’s two opening games in 2011 must be considered one of the most difficult beginnings in all of college football.
The opener is a meeting with South Carolina in Charlotte, North Carolina, and Week 2 brings the Virginia Tech Hokies to Greenville.
Hardly a happy-go-lucky start to the Pirates' second campaign under coach Ruffin McNeill.
ECU will have a bye week following the Virginia Tech game and then will greet C-USA foe UAB for the conference opener in Week 4.
What makes UAB dangerous for the Pirates is how similar the two teams are. Yes, both were ranked among the top 25 nationally in passing yards gained in 2010, and both were ranked among the 20 worst teams in defending the pass.
So while the Pirates may be looking for their first win when the Blazers come calling, somebody will have to stop somebody through the air in what should be a wild game.
Houston
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Houston at Tulane: Thursday, November 10
Despite losing starting both QB Case Keenum and his backup to injury in last year’s early-season game at UCLA, the Cougars still managed to rank No. 5 nationally in passing yards.
The NCAA has granted Keenum another year of eligibility for 2011, which makes another top-five passing finish highly probable.
What’s intriguing about Houston’s 11 FBS opponents in 2011 is how alarmingly porous their pass defenses were in 2010.
In fact, if you throw out the best of the 11 pass defenses, the average of the bottom 10’s rank in pass defense is a dismal No. 88. Four of the 10 opponents finished among the 20 worst pass defenses in college football.
Suddenly Houston looks like it could run the table in 2011.
So who’s the big bad team with the best pass defense of the 11 FBS opponents? Well, that would be Tulane, which ranked No. 28 in pass defense on its way to a 4-8 finish.
Suddenly, the road trip to Tulane seems really intriguing.
Marshall
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Marshall at Houston: Saturday, October 22
This one’s pretty simple: Houston is going to rack up some serious passing yards in 2011. QB Case Keenum is back, and Marshall’s pass “D” is not good.
It’ll be a top-five-ranked passing offense against a bottom-ranked pass defense (at least by last year’s rankings).
The Thundering Herd may be disappointed with their holiday to Houston in October.
Memphis
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Memphis at Arkansas State: Saturday, September 10
The Memphis Tigers only won one game in 2010 (against Middle Tennessee State), which makes finding their “trap” really difficult.
A team that ranked No. 119 in offensive scoring and No. 117 in defensive scoring is sure to find trouble along its entire path in 2011 despite any improvements.
But I’m going with the Week 2 game at Arkansas State because this is a team that the Tigers have dominated, earning a 31-21-6 lead in the all-time series.
This is a game Memphis will need to win to get some momentum going, and frankly, you would think their fans will insist they beat Arkansas State.
However, the Red Wolves are, at least on paper, the better team top to bottom, and if Memphis doesn’t improve drastically, it may drop an unthinkable game to little ASU.
Rice
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Rice vs. Tulane: Saturday, November 19
The Rice Owls ranked No. 119 (or second to last) in pass defense last year. allowing just over 300 yards per game through the air.
The Owls schedule is brutal for a team that has struggled mightily against aerial attacks; Houston, Baylor, Tulsa, SMU and UTEP all get it done through the air.
Though Tulane (which went 4-8 in 2010) might look like a respite late in the season for the beleaguered, air-weary Owls, think again: The Green Wave were deceptively ranked No. 38 in passing yards in 2010, averaging almost 250 yards per game through the air.
SMU
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SMU vs. Navy: Saturday, November 12
SMU plays Navy at the midpoint in a string of games against Tulsa, Tulane and then Houston. What is unique about the Navy game in this stretch is that the Midshipmen are the only opponent during this run that is not a fairly dominant passing team.
Yes, Navy is a rush-dominant squad, which provides relief from the air raid of the C-USA. But SMU, unlike many of its fellow conference members, is actually more effective stopping the pass than the run.
So is Navy a break or really a huge pothole in the road that leads to the bowl season?
Well, SMU is 7-8 all time against the Midshipmen, and Navy has won the last four consecutive meetings between the two.
Southern Miss
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Southern Miss at East Carolina: Saturday, November 5
Southern Miss had but one glaring deficiency last season (which seems to be a common theme in the C-USA): defending the pass.
Yes, it was the Golden Eagles' No. 99-ranked passing defense that arguably cost them their four regular season losses.
The Southern Miss “D” allowed a whopping 191 points in those four losses, all against predominantly passing-oriented teams (South Carolina, East Carolina, UAB and Tulsa).
South Carolina and Tulsa are off the 2011 schedule, but if the Golden Eagles pass defense doesn’t improve, repeat games against East Carolina and UAB loom as hazardous.
Since the ECU game is on the road in Greenville, it gets the nod as the “trap” game.
Tulane
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Tulane at Army: Saturday, October 1
Tulane hasn’t won more than four games since 2004, which makes its 4-8 mark in 2010 (the best finish since 2007) much less tragic.
The Green Wave offense was pass-dominant in 2010, but their defense was far more successful stopping the pass than the run.
This is what makes the No. 101-ranked rush defense look so scary against Army’s No. 8-ranked rushing offense.
Yikes.
Tulsa
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Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State: Saturday, September 17
Tulsa soared to an impressive 10-3 finish in 2010, which included the Golden Hurricane's first mention in a postseason poll in almost 20 years.
What Tulsa struggled with in 2010 was pass defense; in fact, the Golden Hurricane ranked dead last (No. 120) in defending the pass last season.
Though the Oklahoma State Cowboys certainly won't "surprise" Tulsa when they come visiting in Week 3, their appearance may spell disaster in what some believe will be a highly contested ball game.
It's the No. 2 pass offense against the No. 120 pass defense, which could be shocking only because it is so ugly.
UAB
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UAB at Troy: Saturday, October 1
UAB is yet another C-USA team that struggles defending the pass, which makes games against the likes of Florida, Tulane, Mississippi State, Tulsa and Houston downright scary.
But what of Troy, the little school from the Sun Belt Conference? Surely the Trojans won’t produce the same aerial woes as the other more formidable opponents.
That line of thought might be a big mistake.
The Troy Trojans ranked No. 11 in passing yards in 2010, No. 4 in 2009 and No. 33 in 2008; indeed, this is not something that just started last year.
Another interesting twist is the fact that the Blazers versus Trojans game represents a nice little in-state rivalry. Yes, Troy, Alabama is located just about 150 miles south of Birmingham, Alabama.
UCF
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UCF vs. Boston College: Saturday, September 10
The 11-3 2010 UCF Knights won the C-USA Championship and scored the program’s first-ever bowl victory with a thrilling 10-6 defeat of Georgia in the Liberty Bowl.
Despite some significant turnover in 2011, the Knights should still be a very good football team.
What UCF was most offensively successful doing last season was moving the ball on the ground. The Knights ranked No. 26 in rushing yards and No. 87 in passing yards.
This fact makes the Knights' game against Boston College, which ranked No. 1 nationally in rushing defense, a definite early-season “trap.”
UTEP
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UTEP at UCF: Saturday, November 25
The Miners went 6-7 in 2010 and ended the season with their first bowl appearance since 2005 (which unfortunately resulted in a 52-24 loss to BYU in the New Mexico Bowl).
Though the Miners weren’t very effective against the pass (No. 80 overall), they struggled even more against the charms of the running game (No. 90 overall).
This makes the season finale versus run-dominant UCF seem quite unsafe.
Army
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Army at Miami (OH): Saturday, October 8
It’s hardly possible that the Black Knights are going to overlook Miami (OH); they’ve seen the record, they’ve read the stats and they’ve watched the film.
But the RedHawks defense ranked a lofty No. 24 in stopping the run in 2010, allowing just over 125 yards per game on the ground.
This sets up rather nicely when faced with an offense that is completely run-dominated, like, say...Army.
BYU
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BYU vs. San Jose State: Saturday, October 8
The Cougars' 2011 schedule is a delightful hodgepodge of teams from all over college football, and San Jose State may be one of the least feared among BYU’s 12 opponents in its first year of independence.
BYU hosts San Jose State just before it travels to Oregon State to take on one of its four BCS opponents in 2011, and the Spartans could be easily overlooked in a season that is scattered with more challenging challenges.
Curiously, the Spartans lead the all-time series 9-5, and the Cougars have not won a game against San Jose State since 1968.
Navy
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Navy at Southern Miss: Saturday, October 8
Navy is among the service academies that utilize their discipline and precision to successfully run the option.
The Midshipmen ranked No. 6 in 2010 in rushing yards, while Army ranked No. 8 and Air Force ranked No. 2.
These are impressive numbers for schools that simply cannot recruit like the rest of college football.
Southern Miss ranked No. 13 in 2010 against the run, and though South Carolina, Air Force, Notre Dame and SMU might seem like bigger games with more to fear, the Golden Eagles might be scariest of them all.
Notre Dame
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Notre Dame at Purdue: Saturday, October 1
Purdue last beat the Irish in 2007, but lots has changed since then. Charlie Weis was coaching Notre Dame, and then the Irish went on to skid to a 3-9 mark, the lowest win total since 1963, when Notre Dame went 2-7.
Now Brian Kelly is stalking the sidelines, and the talk of the return of a football renaissance at Notre Dame is swirling all around college football.
The 2011 game at Purdue is interesting because it is placed at the end of a string of games beginning with a home game (the opener) against USF, followed by contests at Michigan, Michigan State in South Bend and then at Pittsburgh.
All four teams have a legitimate chance to win their respective conferences, and all four will provide a unique challenge for Notre Dame.
Then comes Purdue, seemingly providing the Irish a much-needed opportunity to take a huge gasp of fresh air before playing Air Force, USC and Navy.
It might be a mistake to think the air will be that fresh in nearby West Lafayette, Indiana.
Why? Because that’s the beautiful way college football works.
Akron
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Akron at Buffalo: Saturday, November 19
The Zips' 1-11 finish in 2010 marked their worst performance since 1994, when they also managed only one win.
I, for one, think Akron will play better in head coach Rob Ianello’s second season. Regardless, this is still a team that could literally lose to any number of 2011 opponents.
The selection of Buffalo is twofold: First, the Bulls also finished 2010 with only one conference win, and second, Buffalo is the only team the Zips beat last season (a 22-14 victory in the closer in Akron).
This might make the Bulls look less dangerous than the other 11 teams on the Zips' schedule.
Ball State
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Ball State vs. Buffalo: Saturday, September 17
Ball State opens its 2011 campaign against Indiana and then travels to play USF on the road. After the trip to Tampa, the Cardinals return to Indiana to host Buffalo before playing Army and then Oklahoma (both also home games).
Buffalo is precariously placed between four opponents who should outmatch the Cardinals, so the Bulls represent a precious early-season “W,” which also makes it inherently dangerous.
Ball State is 7-1 all-time against the Bulls, the only loss coming in the 2008 MAC Championship Game (42-24).
Bowling Green
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Bowling Green at Kent State: Saturday, October 29
Bowling Green’s 2-10 record in 2010 was the worst Falcon performance since 2000.
The only statistical bright spot last season was a passing game that ranked No. 51 nationally; to compare, Bowling Green ranked No. 120 in rushing yards and No. 100 in scoring defense.
Though improvements all over the field are no doubt expected and desired, if the Falcons run into a team that can successfully defend the pass, it may greatly hamper Bowling Green from trying to rise from its own ashes.
Kent State is that team and allowed only 200 yards passing per game (No. 47 nationally) last season.
Buffalo
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Buffalo at Ball State: Saturday, September 17
Despite only winning two games in 2010 (over FCS Rhode Island and Bowling Green), the Bulls were ranked a curious No. 18 overall in pass defense, which led them to No. 67 ranking overall in scoring “D.”
What Buffalo struggled with last season was scoring points and defending the run.
Ball State, which comes as a bit of respite on the schedule, nestled cozily with FCS Stony Brook between three BCS opponents (after the road trip to Pitt in the opener and before facing UConn and then Tennessee), was actually somewhat successful running the ball in 2010.
Yes, the Cardinals' only statistical strength last season was rushing yards, where they were ranked No. 63 nationally.
The two factors combine to make Ball State a somewhat elusively dangerous opponent.
Central Michigan
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Central Michigan at Western Michigan: Saturday, September 17
Of the “haves” and the “have-nots” in the MAC, the Chippewas have recently made a dramatic shift (at least temporarily) to the “have-nots.”
Despite a 3-9 finish in 2010, Central Michigan can still throw the ball (ranked No. 17 in passing yards last season).
Really, with a team trying to rebound from an awful season, every opponent is lethal, especially when you are also playing Kentucky, Michigan State, Northern Illinois and North Carolina State.
The intriguing opponent (that is somewhat camouflaged by falling directly between games with Kentucky and Michigan State) is Western Michigan, which finished 6-6 and held opponents to just over 220 yards per game through the air.
If WMU can stop the Central Michigan passing attack, the Broncos definitely present a challenge to a team that will have its hands full both before and after they play them.
Eastern Michigan
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Eastern Michigan at Kent State: Saturday, November 19
The Eagles, after going 2-10 in 2010, get off to an interesting start in 2011 with back-to-back FCS games followed directly by back-to-back BCS games (at Michigan and at Penn State).
By the time the conference slate opens on October 1 against Akron, the Eagles should be well seasoned.
EMU’s stark statistical reality in 2010 shows a dominant run game coupled with monumental struggles everywhere else on the field.
This fact makes Kent State the most likely hazardous opponent, as the Golden Flashes ranked a startling No. 4 (nationally) in rush defense. Kent State gave up a thrifty 97 yards per game on the ground last season.
Kent State
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Kent State at Temple: Friday, November 25
The Golden Flashes utilized a defense that ranked No. 42 in scoring to achieve a 5-7 record in 2010; what Kent State struggled with last season was offense.
KSU was ranked No. 74 in passing yards and No. 100 in rushing yards, which makes moving the ball a huge opportunity for improvement in 2011.
From a MAC standpoint, that makes Temple a precarious opponent for the Flashes, as the Owls finished last season ranked a lofty No. 16 in scoring defense.
Kent State is 2-3 all-time against Temple, and all five games have been played since 2006.
Miami (OH)
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Miami vs. Bowling Green: Saturday, September 24
The RedHawks successfully managed one of the biggest about-faces in college football when they took their 1-11 team from 2009 and transformed it into the 10-4 squad that played in 2010.
How did they do it? Well, through the air offensively and by playing defense really well against the run and somewhat less successfully against the pass.
Guessing how they will do in 2011 is made more complicated by the fact that coach Mike Haywood is gone, though Miami returns a whopping 18 starters.
What seems dangerous for the RedHawks in 2011 is assuming they will immediately taste the success (especially against MAC opponents) they did last season.
This makes their first MAC opponent, the Bowling Green Falcons, who played ugly and finished last season 2-10, a curious matchup.
Further intrigue is provided by the fact that the Falcons game falls between four non-conference clashes that Miami will be eager to play well in to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke (at Missouri, at Minnesota and then the Bowling Green game, followed by Cincinnati and Army at home).
Northern Illinois
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Northern Illinois vs. Kent State: Saturday, October 8
The other MAC team that showed substantial improvement in 2010 was Northern Illinois, which took its 7-6 record in 2009 and progressed to 11-3 in 2011.
Like Miami (OH), the Huskies will also be without their head coach next season, as Jerry Kill has left NIU for Minnesota.
Northern Illinois was very successful running the ball and playing defense last season, which makes the Kent State Golden Flashes (a team that is going to look really easy to the Huskies) deceptively challenging to the No. 7-ranked rushing team from 2010.
Kent State ranked No. 4 (yes, nationally) in stopping the run in 2010 and allowed foes only 97 yards per game on the ground.
So how did this scenario play out when the two met last season? Well, the Huskies and Golden Flashes haven’t played each other since 2008; Northern Illinois leads the all-time series 15-7.
Ohio
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Ohio at Central Michigan: Thursday, November 10
The Bobcats rode their No. 20-ranked rushing defense to an 8-5 record in 2010. What held Ohio University from further glory was an offense that was unbalanced (ran better than threw) and a passing defense that allowed over 230 yards per game (No. 83 nationally).
The weakness through the air creates a big advantage for a team like Central Michigan, whose only real strength in 2010 was throwing the ball.
Curiously, Ohio has been absolutely dominated by the Chippewas, who lead the all-time series 21-4-2.
Central Michigan, which tanked in 2010 and finished 3-9, might be a true wolf in sheep’s clothing for the 2011 Bobcats.
Temple
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Temple vs. Kent State: Friday, November 25
The Owls finished 2010 at an 8-4 mark and did so riding the backs of a defense that stifled opponents to an average of only 19.1 points per game.
What Temple struggled with was moving the ball, which it did only marginally better on the ground versus through the air.
This fact makes a team like Northern Illinois (No. 14 in scoring defense in 2010) dangerous, but frankly they’ll be expecting that game to be tough.
What might be a bit more shocking is Kent State, which ranked at No. 42 in scoring defense (allowing only 22.9 points per game last season) and still only finished at 5-7.
With the loss of coach Al Golden, who knows how the Owls will look in 2010? We have to remember that before Golden began to revive Temple football, the Owls hadn’t won more than seven games since 1979.
Toledo
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Toledo vs. Western Michigan: Tuesday, November 8
The Rockets are another MAC team that ran the ball successfully enough to post a winning record and earn a bowl bid.
What the 8-5 Toledo Rockets didn’t do quite so well in 2010 was defend the pass, where they ranked No. 86 nationally.
This obviously makes the inclusion of Ohio State and Boise State on the Rockets' 2011 schedule downright frightening, but what about Western Michigan, which finished 6-6 in 2010?
The Broncos rode their No. 16-ranked passing attack last season to a No. 27 ranking in offensive scoring.
Though the Rockets held the Broncos to 24 points while beating them 37-24 in 2010, in 2009 Western Michigan hung up 58 points on Toledo on their way to a 58-26 spanking. That game was played in Toledo.
Western Michigan
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Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green: Saturday, October 8
If you conduct the Broncos versus Bowling Green game on paper, the Broncos win every time.
The Falcons struggled so mightily in 2010 that it’s hard to scrape up enough good stuff to argue that they will play well against anybody in 2011.
This actually works as an advantage for Bowling Green, which hasn’t played to the low standard it established in 2010 since winning only two games in 2000.
The other bit that’s intriguing about the Broncos and Falcons is the fact that, historically, Bowling Green has owned Western Michigan, leading the all-time series 31-16-3.
Air Force
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Air Force vs. Army: Saturday, November 5
Air Force has been beating up on Army since the 1970s.
Yes, in the '70s the Black Knights were 5-4 against the Falcons, but as time went on Army was dominated by Air Force: 4-6 in the 1980s, 1-9 in the 1990s and 1-10 since 2000.
The last time the Black Knights beat the Falcons was in 2005, when they won 27-24.
In 2011 Air Force looks primed to beat Army once again, but there is one bit of evidence that might just tip the scales in the Black Knights' favor.
Army, like Air Force, can run the ball, but Army (unlike Air Force) can stop the run. How effectively? Well, last season the Black Knights held opponents to under 140 yards per game on the ground.
Boise State
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Boise State vs. Georgia (in Atlanta): Saturday, September 3
So who (if anyone) could be the Broncos' “Nevada” in 2011?
Well, I’m going with Georgia, and not because the Bulldogs are from the SEC and are therefore inherently dominant due to athleticism and superior competition.
No, I’m going with Georgia because Boise State’s most serious losses from their 2010 team are at the receiver position, where top ball catchers Austin Pettis and Titus Young are gone.
Sure, the Broncos can and probably will reload, but in the very first game of the season, on the road, can Boise State retool the receiving corps while facing the No. 16-ranked passing defense from 2010?
Georgia allowed only 180 yards per game through the air in 2010 playing a full SEC schedule.
I’m not saying...I’m just saying.
Colorado State
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Colorado State at New Mexico: Saturday, September 3
Well, the Rams struggled in 2010 and finished 3-9; their only wins were against Idaho, UNLV and New Mexico.
The only bright spot in Colorado State’s dismal statistical showing last season was a passing game that ranked No. 60 nationally (which looked good relative to the No. 103 rank in rushing and the No. 104 rank in scoring defense).
What might surprise the Rams is that the New Mexico Lobos' (who went 1-11 in 2010) lone statistical triumph last season was a pass defense that ranked a lofty No. 57 (allowing only 218 yards through the air per game).
The Rams versus Lobos opener is hardly the stuff dreams are made of, but don’t be surprised if New Mexico matches its entire 2010 win total after only one 2011 game.
New Mexico
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New Mexico at Wyoming: Saturday, November 19
Okay, seriously, who is going to surprise a team that went 1-11 last season?
Well, I guess the only semi, quasi-logical answer to that question is Wyoming, which is the only team it beat in 2010.
Yes, if the Lobos lose to the Wyoming Cowboys, that would be a huge blow to the depraved football people of Albuquerque, New Mexico.
San Diego State
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San Diego State at Army: Saturday, September 3
With coach Brady Hoke gone to Michigan, it is hard to predict how the Aztecs may play in 2011.
San Diego State’s 9-3 finish last season was its best performance since 1977, and the Aztecs should have no problem beating FCS Cal Poly in the 2011 opener.
But when they travel to the Hudson River Valley to face Army, then what happens?
Interestingly, the weakest defensive category for the Aztecs in 2010 was rushing “D” (of course, this is all relative to SDSU allowing only 22.1 points per game last season), which is of course Army’s strong suit.
Army doesn’t look like a huge opponent (on paper), especially with games against Michigan and TCU only two weeks later, but it would be a huge mistake for San Diego State to overlook Army.
First, how hard will the loss of Hoke hit the Aztecs, and then can they overcome that in only their second game without him against a great running team?
TCU
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TCU at Baylor: Friday, September 2
It makes sense to me that if the Horned Frogs are going to suffer an unexpected loss, it might just happen earlier in the season than later.
The logic behind this reasoning is that since TCU only returns 10 total starters from 2010 (and two are on special teams), the retooling process might be more apt take a hit earlier than later in the season.
Yes, Gary Patterson has been absolutely stellar at rebuilding Horned Frog teams during his tenure at TCU, but he is replacing a bunch of skill positions and talented athletes in 2011.
Baylor creates a perfect situation. It’s a team from a larger conference that has recently played very well but before that really struggled for a long time.
The Bears and Horned Frogs are old rivals from the now defunct Southwest Conference, which makes the idea of beating TCU less of a “pie in the sky” notion for the Baylor program.
Baylor is a solid team and returns much of its offensive firepower in 2011. If the Bears can play defense, don’t be surprised if this game is very, very close.
UNLV
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UNLV at New Mexico: Saturday, November 12
UNLV is another team that makes finding a “trap” game virtually impossible.
The Rebels went 2-11 in 2010 and ranked No. 110 in scoring offense and No. 116 in scoring defense.
The only two wins last season were over 1-11 New Mexico and 3-9 Wyoming, so we will just say that losing to New Mexico in 2011 would be a shock, a travesty and a setback for Bobby Hauck in his second season in Vegas.
Wyoming
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Wyoming at Utah State: Saturday, October 8
Now we come to Wyoming, who went 3-9 in 2010, scoring its precious trio of wins over FCS Southern Utah, Toledo and Colorado State (who it pounded 44-0).
The interesting factoid regarding Wyoming is that while it ranked No. 106 overall in rush defense, it was actually quite effective defending the pass, holding teams to an average of 207 yards through the air.
What this all amounts to is running teams are dangerous opponents for the Cowboys.
This means scheduled teams such as Nebraska and Air Force are downright bloodcurdling, but an opponent like, say, Utah State that may seem less foreboding actually may present the Cowboys with a challenge.
Utah State ranked No. 41 in rushing yards last season and went 4-8, including a big win over BYU.
It’s hard to overestimate Utah State, but Wyoming might want to give the Aggies a little special consideration.
Arizona
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Arizona vs. Oregon: Saturday, September 24
This game actually looks fairly compelling on paper. The Wildcats may have dropped their final five games in 2010 to finish 7-6, but these are still two Pac-12 teams that have been fairly successful over the past several years.
Yes, the Ducks definitely have a superior team, but this is a road game for Oregon.
The mismatch in this contest that makes it look like it could get ugly in a hurry is Arizona’s defense, which has lost four of its starting linemen from 2010.
Four of the front-line starters gone, and here comes the No. 4-ranked rushing attack from last season, an attack that averaged almost 300 yards per game in 2010.
Adding to the concern is the fact that this game is early enough in the season that whatever retooling Arizona has done may have not yet jelled.
Arizona State
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Arizona State vs. California: Saturday, November 26
After going 6-6 last season, the Sun Devils return almost everyone in 2011, making ASU a popular choice to be a dark horse candidate in the Pac-12.
If the Sun Devils really do make a move this season, it would be safe to say it’s their passing attack that will get them there (at least offensively speaking).
The No. 15-ranked passing offense returns virtually everyone in 2010, and if the Sun Devils are going to be thwarted, they will have to be shot down out of the air.
Hidden in the depths of the schedule, in the final game, is a California team that looks somewhat harmless after a 5-7 finish last season but ranked No. 21 against the pass in 2010, which marks the highest rank for a Pac-12 team.
So what if ASU really does make a serious threat to win a Pac-12 title, and what if all comes down to that little game against the Golden Bears?
Wow.
California
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California vs. Fresno State, Saturday, September 3
So what went wrong at Cal last season? Indeed, how did the Bears drop to their lowest win total in the otherwise successful Jeff Tedford era?
Really, statistically speaking, it comes down to the fact that the Golden Bears couldn’t score points, and at the end of the day it was the passing game that struggled more than the ground game.
It seems prudent to predict that Cal will improve in 2011, but the big question is how long will it take the Golden Bears to rebound from last year?
Well, it all starts with a big win over Fresno State in the opener.
But wait—Fresno State went 8-5 in 2010 and beat BCS teams Illinois and Cincinnati. And hold on just a minute: Cal has never beaten Fresno State—never, ever.
The Golden Bears and Bulldogs have only met two times in history (in 1995 and 2000), and Fresno State won both of these contests.
Colorado
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Colorado vs. Cal: Saturday, September 10
The Buffaloes looked like a different team in the last three games of 2010; with Dan Hawkins gone Colorado seemed refreshed and ready to start playing football again.
Coming into 2011 Colorado is a huge unknown. It’s a new coach and a new conference, but it’s the same quarterback and most of the offense that led the Buffs to a fairly respectable number of yards through the air.
This air attack, which should return in 2011, is exactly what makes Cal scary for Colorado.
Interestingly, this game will be played as a non-conference affair, as it was scheduled prior to the Buffs' membership transfer to the Pac-12, but it still features the California Golden Bears' No. 21-ranked pass offense.
Oregon
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Oregon vs. Nevada: Saturday, September 10
Can anyone stop the Ducks in 2011?
Teams will certainly struggle with Oregon’s offensive attack, but what creates an opportunity for the Ducks' 2011 foes is a defense that is in the process of replacing five of the front seven starters from 2010.
Like TCU, if Oregon gets tripped up, it may be earlier rather than later when questions of “who goes where” are still being answered on game day.
LSU in the opener isn’t going to be overlooked, and Nevada in Week 2 presents an interesting challenge until you realize that both of the top rushers from last season’s 13-1, No. 3-ranked running team are gone.
But maybe this makes Nevada even a more appealing choice as the “trap” game for Oregon; nobody, and I mean, nobody will expect the Wolf Pack to knock off Oregon.
Nevada has maintained an average of No. 8 in rushing yards over the past five years, and it has ranked in the top five three of these years; looks like it knows how to retool.
Another huge factor is that this game immediately follows the epic clash with LSU in Arlington, Texas; it’s the possibility of the all-important “letdown” game.
Oregon State
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Oregon State at Wisconsin: Saturday, September 10
The Beaver versus Badger game this upcoming season won’t be a true “trap” for either team; it’s two BCS opponents who have no doubt circled September 10 as an important date in their non-conference schedules.
What makes the meeting dangerous for Oregon State is the fact that their personnel losses coming into 2011 match up very poorly with Wisconsin’s obvious strengths going into next season.
The Badgers have lost QB Scott Tolzien, but this is a team that runs the ball effectively and a team that retains its super duo of top rushers in 2011 (James White and Montee Ball).
Unfortunately, Oregon State has lost five of its front defensive seven, which could be ugly when it is trying to regroup quickly enough to travel to Wisconsin to face the footloose and fancy-free Badgers.
It might be a bit like running into a literal buzz saw.
Stanford
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Stanford vs. Cal: Saturday, November 19
Despite the loss of coach Jim Harbaugh, it’s difficult to find a bunch of pitfalls in Stanford’s 2011 schedule.
We all know the Oregon game (at Stanford) will be huge, but other than that and the finale hosting Notre Dame, it’s hard to find the game that will trip the Cardinal up.
And so we go to “The Big Game,” or Stanford vs. Cal, which actually presents several interesting facts. First, Stanford’s significant losses from last year's team are at receiver and offensive line, which pair up well with a Cal team that ranked No. 21 in pass defense in 2010.
Second, this game falls between emotional, high-pressure meetings with Oregon and Notre Dame, hastening the dreaded “letdown” or “overlook” theories.
Third, this is a rivalry game, and rivalry games rarely make any sense at all.
UCLA
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UCLA vs. Texas: Saturday, September 17
Who will improve more in 2011, Texas or UCLA?
Who will lose his job sooner, Mack Brown or Rick Neuheisel?
Perhaps most interesting when UCLA and Texas meet again in 2011, will UCLA prove that its stunning win in Austin last season wasn’t just a fluke, or will Texas exact relentless, graceless revenge on the Bruins for their sins against the powerful state of Longhorn?
My guess is option two, in each case.
Texas is just too athletic, fast and talented and will indeed want to avenge the ugliness that was 2010. Additionally, UCLA’s relative success running the ball last season might be mightily thwarted by the loss of five members of the Bruin offensive line.
USC
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USC at Arizona State: Saturday, September 24
From the cheap seats, it seems like 2011 represents a low mark in USC preseason hype. Yes, it is postseason-banned again in 2011, and yeah, it only went 8-5 last season, but this is USC!
What somewhat hampered the Trojans in 2010 was a pass defense that ranked a dismal No. 109; USC allowed an average of 259 yards per game through the air.
Will this improve in 2011? Well, if it doesn’t, a team like the once lowly Sun Devils of Arizona State (who ranked No. 15 in passing yards in 2010) might be a huge hurdle for the men of Troy.
The last time ASU beat USC? November 6, 1999.
Utah
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Utah at BYU: Saturday, September 17
After spending 30-plus years as a member of the WAC and then a little over a decade as part of the Mountain West, the Utah Utes finally stare down the barrel of their first-ever BCS schedule (as new members of the expanding waistline of the Pac-12) .
Screams of “But who’d they play?” are replaced with quips of “Let’s see ‘em play USC,” which is exactly why BYU might be the most dangerous game on Utah’s schedule.
BYU and Utah will both field good teams in 2011, but the Utes will have to be very careful to not forget where they came from.
Not only would the Cougars love to smack the newest BCS-eligible team (their neighbors and rivals) right in the kisser, but BYU might have as good as a team (or better) than at least half of the Pac-12 teams Utah will face in her maiden voyage on the West Coast.
Washington
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Washington at Utah: Saturday, October 1
After much gnashing of teeth, Jake Locker has now left the building. But what about the return of RB Chris Polk, who was the leading rusher on a Husky team that ranked No. 38 in rushing and only No. 84 in passing?
This rushing retention is exactly why newcomer Utah looms as a dangerous “trap” for Washington.
Why worry about the Utes? They are like from the WAC or the MWC, right?
Well, they had the No. 11-ranked rush offense in 2010 and also hold the allure of being a team that Washington has never lost to.
That’s right—the Huskies are 6-0 all-time against Utah, but this is a series that, up until now, was played between the years 1931-1979.
Washington State
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Washington State vs. UNLV: Saturday, September 10
Washington State’s only two wins in 2010 were over FCS Montana State and a shocker over Oregon State in Corvallis.
Choosing a “trap” game for Washington State is basically near impossible because it could quite literally fall victim to any team on its 2011 schedule.
This leads to the selection of UNLV, which finished 2010 2-11. The reason for this choice is that the Cougars should be able to beat UNLV, which is a very dangerous situation for a team that has won only five games in the past three seasons.
Alabama
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Alabama at Mississippi State: Saturday, November 12
Alabama will more than likely, depending on how the season actually plays out, be the favored team in each of its games in 2011.
My thought is that if Alabama is going to drop a game unexpectedly, it may happen later in the season, when things heat up and the pressure is on a new quarterback with less game experience (this is a different approach from TCU and Boise State, who both have MWC schedules that are more front-loaded).
For me, that game is at Mississippi State: a good team, on the road and a team Alabama ought to beat. But the pressure will be on, and even greater if the Tide manage a win over LSU the previous week.
Arkansas
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Arkansas at Ole Miss: Saturday, October 22
The Ole Miss Rebels (aka Black Bears) were so bad last season that it is easy to forget this is the same team that had back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2008 and 2009 (even more impressive when you consider the division the Rebs play in).
The reason Ole Miss could be a “trap” game for Arkansas in 2011 is twofold. First, the game falls after a combination of games at Alabama, versus Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas and then back at home against Auburn (i.e. the “letdown” theory).
Second, Ole Miss is really, really flying under the radar in the SEC West. I mean, when you have LSU, Alabama, Mississippi and Arkansas to worry about, what’s the big deal about Ole Miss?
It’s on the road, and it’s deceptively placed to look like the beginning of an “easy” two-game stretch at Ole Miss and at Vanderbilt.
Auburn
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Auburn vs. Mississippi State: Saturday, September 10
Though the Tigers certainly won’t be desperate in 2011, the defending champs return only seven total starters in 2010 (the lowest of any team in the FBS).
This makes the start of the season precariously dangerous for Auburn.
What happens when you’ve got your championship ring on your finger in the SEC opener, everybody’s still celebrating 2010 (as they certainly should) and Mississippi State comes to town, and you get beat?
The Tigers are going to drop a couple of games in 2011, not because they suck, but because they play a difficult schedule and will be forced to rebuild.
Florida
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Florida at Kentucky: Saturday, September 24
The Gators are another 2011 team that sports more “unknowns” than “knowns.”
A totally new coaching staff, new schemes, new personnel and old personnel in new spots. All bets are off with Florida until it hits the field this fall.
We do know that the Gators will be fast, athletic and talented, but surely it will take them at least a few games to digest all the big changes.
This is why the road trip to Kentucky in Week 4 is somewhat attractive as a “trap” game. If the Gators can manage a win over Tennessee in Gainesville in Week 3, they should be 3-0 coming into the game against the Wildcats.
But in case you missed it, Kentucky showed a lot of promise in its first season under Joker Phillips, and returning 17 starters certainly won’t hurt.
The Wildcats, frankly, are the kind of team that doesn’t throw too much of a scare into the Gator nation, regardless of what anyone says. Florida ain’t afraid of a team that hasn’t beaten it since 1986.
Another interesting twist is where this game falls in the schedule, which is on the cusp of a stretch of games versus Alabama, at LSU, at Auburn and versus Georgia at Jacksonville.
Georgia
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Georgia vs. South Carolina: Saturday, September 10
I think Georgia has a great chance of knocking off Boise State in its opener, which is exactly why South Carolina becomes a dangerous game.
No, the Gamecocks aren’t flying under the radar, but after playing in a game with the monumental amount of hype that will precede the opener against the Broncos, what happens next?
Georgia might gain a mountain of confidence in beating the blue turfers, but will that help or harm a team that has its work cut for it in 2011?
Kentucky
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Kentucky vs. Ole Miss: Saturday, November 5
Kentucky did a great job defending the pass in 2010; in fact, it ranked No. 14 in passing defense, allowing only 176 yards per game. What hurt the Wildcats was a run defense that ranked No. 85.
This deficiency makes Ole Miss a real threat to Kentucky; the Rebels had the No. 18-ranked rushing offense in 2010, second in the SEC to only Mississippi State, who ranked No. 16.
The Bulldogs won’t fly under anyone’s radar, but the Rebels (aka Black Bears) are perfect candidates for such a deceptive task.
LSU
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LSU at West Virginia: Saturday, September 24
West Virginia presents an interesting challenge to every team that has to play it in 2011.
New offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen makes the possibility of an offensive explosion in Morgantown, West Virginia very real.
LSU has no shortage of talent in its defensive secondary (despite the loss of Patrick Peterson) and was ranked No. 1 in pass defense in the SEC in 2010.
But what may happen in West Virginia is all about timing. When will the yardage detonation occur, and who will be its first victim?
LSU may feel well protected from such an attack, but that might be a critical battle readiness error, especially given the venue and the fact that this game follows directly on the heels of a huge game at Mississippi State.
Mississippi State
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Mississippi State at UAB: Saturday, October 8
Watching the Bulldogs gives one the distinct impression that they don’t overlook anyone. Every game is serious business, as it should be, especially when your main objective is just to get out of your division alive.
But Mississippi State’s No. 91 ranking in pass defense in 2010 is bound to hamper it if it can’t improve, and setbacks at linebacker in 2011 certainly won’t help.
This is what makes UAB a dangerous opponent. Flying so low under the radar that the blip is but a shadow, but armed with the No. 24-ranked passing offense in the nation (in 2010), UAB deserves a bolder blip.
It’s a ridiculous prediction that the Bulldogs would lose to the Blazers, but don’t be surprised if this game is closer than it should be.
Ole Miss
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Ole Miss vs. BYU: Saturday, September 3
So what do coach Houston Nutt and the Black Bears do to rise up from their 4-8 performance in 2010? Yes, the Rebs won just one conference game last season, over Kentucky.
You have to figure they’re going to improve, and we’ll know a lot more once they hit the field in Oxford against BYU.
Yes, that’s the newly freed BYU Cougars, who went 7-6 last season in what was coined a “rebuilding year.”
BYU might be one of the better football teams in 2011, which may be something that gets lost amid its independent status, but regardless, BYU will be a tough team for Ole Miss to open a “new and improved” campaign against.
South Carolina
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South Carolina vs. East Carolina (in Charlotte, North Carolina): Saturday, September 3
The Gamecocks certainly won’t be surprised that the Pirates can and will throw the ball for an obscene number of yards when they meet in the opener.
But if South Carolina can’t improve on its pass “D” that ranked No. 97 in 2010 (a chore hampered by the loss of the support of four key members of the defensive front seven), things could get interesting in Charlotte.
Tennessee
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Tennessee vs. Middle Tennessee: Saturday, November 5
Yet another ridiculous (though thought-provoking) “fantasyland” prediction...can the Vols really struggle against the Blue Raiders?
Following are the key points to the argument that yes, indeed, Tennessee could struggle (but maybe not lose) to Middle Tennessee.
First, after everything that went down in 2010, coach Derek Dooley and the boys won’t be overlooking anybody—well, with the exception of FCS Montana, Buffalo and...Middle Tennessee.
Second, the Volunteers' offensive strength in 2010 (No. 30 in passing yards) matches up well against Middle Tennessee’s defensive strength, which was defending the pass (also ranked No. 30 nationally).
Third, this game is placed right between two huge tests for Tennessee: versus South Carolina at home and then at Arkansas.
Vanderbilt
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Vanderbilt vs. Army: Saturday, October 22
I think it’s safe to say that Vandy doesn’t overlook any of its SEC opponents, which relegates any notion of a “trap” game to the non-conference schedule.
This, and the fact that the Commodores ranked No. 100 in rush defense last season, makes Army (which was ranked No. 8 in rushing last season) a dangerous proposition for Vandy.
Arkansas State
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Arkansas State at Western Kentucky: Saturday October 1
The Red Wolves ranked a dismal No. 111 in rushing defense in 2010, which makes opponents like Illinois and Virginia Tech flat scary, but these types of teams won’t surprise Arkansas State. They’ll likely know what’s about to hit them.
Much less obvious are the rushing stylings of Western Kentucky, which went 2-10 in 2010 but ranked No. 33 in offensive rushing yards.
One of the Hilltoppers' wins was a 36-35 victory over Arkansas State.
FIU
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Florida International at Western Kentucky: Saturday, November 5
If you want to beat Florida International, you need to run the ball and stop the run. The Golden Panthers ranked No. 77 against the run and were No. 27 in rushing offense in 2010.
If Western Kentucky improves its No. 86-ranked rush defense, it (with a No. 33-ranked rushing “O” in 2010) is the perfect surprise combination to take down FIU.
Florida Atlantic
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Florida Atlantic vs. FIU: Saturday, November 12
It’s hard to find “trap” games for Sun Belt teams because after they get beat up by BCS teams, they all beat each other up.
FAU won’t be “surprised” by FIU, but it will (unless it shows great improvement) have a hard time stopping the Golden Panthers' No. 27-ranked rushing offense with its No. 107-ranked rushing defense.
Louisiana-Lafayette
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Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Kent State: Saturday, September 10
The Ragin’ Cajuns won just three games in 2010, which makes every opponent in 2011 lethal.
Louisiana-Lafayette was successful throwing the ball last season (its only statistical highlight), which makes its meeting with the MAC’s Kent State (ranked No. 47 in pass defense) compelling.
The Golden Flashes went 5-7 in 2010, which may disguise the fact that they were the No. 42-ranked scoring defense in the land.
Middle Tennessee
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Middle Tennessee at North Texas: Saturday, December 3
The Blue Raiders ranked a dismal No. 94 in rushing defense in 2010, which makes the prospect of playing North Texas (the Mean Green ranked No. 19 in rushing yards) suddenly daunting.
Prior to North Texas’ 23-17 road victory over Middle Tennessee last season, the Mean Green had dropped four straight to the Blue Raiders.
North Texas
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North Texas vs. Florida Atlantic: Saturday, October 8
The first part of the Mean Green’s schedule reads like a horror story: at FIU, versus Houston, at Alabama, versus Indiana and at Tulsa.
The game that follows the trip to Tulsa is a home game against Florida Atlantic, a team that went 4-8 in 2010.
The Owls might look like less of a threat after two BCS teams and a very good Tulsa squad, which is exactly why they may trip up the Mean and the Green.
Troy
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Troy vs. Middle Tennessee: Saturday, September 24
Though Middle Tennessee leads the all-time series against Troy (11-7), the Trojans have won the last five meetings between the two.
This and the fact that Troy faces the Blue Raiders after road trips to Clemson and Arkansas make Middle Tennessee hardly seem like a big challenge.
But the Blue Raiders can challenge Troy’s air attack more so than any other Sun Belt opponent.
It will come down to the No. 11 passing offense against the No. 31 pass defense, which means anything could happen.
ULM
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Louisiana-Monroe vs. Grambling: Saturday, September 10
FCS Grambling might not jump out and grab you as an opponent any FBS team should fear, but ULM may need to take the Tigers seriously when they come to Monroe in Week 2.
Why?
Well, first, this game falls between the opener at Florida State and the Week 3 game at TCU, making it look even more like a breeze.
Second, Grambling went 9-2 last season and finished first in the SWAC. This is no pushover, FCS or not.
Last, these two schools are located a mere 38 miles apart. Yes, hop on I-20 and travel the 30-some odd miles westward from Monroe, through Ruston (home of Louisiana Tech), and there just south of the interstate is Grambling State University.
Wouldn’t FCS Grambling love to knock off the FBS team located less than 40 minutes away? You bet.
The Warhawks and Tigers have only met once in football, in 2007, when ULM won 28-14.
Western Kentucky
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Western Kentucky at North Texas: Saturday, November
North Texas presents a challenge to a Hilltopper team that won only two games in 2010 because at a quick glance the Mean Green (who scored only three victories last season) seem to be a team that may be "beatable" for WKU in 2011.
A dangerous scenario for a team trying to climb out of a deep cellar.
Fresno State
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Fresno State at San Diego State: Saturday, December 3
With Boise State gone from the WAC and Hawaii and Nevada devoid of much of their offensive firepower, you have to wonder if Fresno State is the next team to beat in the WAC.
Fresno State played very consistently in 2010, and though the obvious threats of Cal, Nebraska, Boise State and Hawaii dot the Bulldogs' 2011 schedule, the San Diego State Aztecs are a bit of unknown.
SDSU is another team that played well in 2010, but the two have not met since 2002, when Fresno State won 16-14.
Curiously, SDSU leads the all-time series 26-20-4, and prior to the Bulldogs' 2002 victory the Aztecs beat the Bulldogs four consecutive times.
Fresno State’s consistent performance in 2010 makes a 2011 “trap” hard to find, but the season finale against San Diego State might loom large in the Bulldogs' quest for their first piece of a WAC title since 1999.
Hawaii
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Hawaii at Louisiana Tech: Saturday, October 1
Hawaii offensively overpowered teams in 2010 on its way to a 10-3 record. Though the Warriors' passing attack was lethal in 2010, gone next season are all but three starters from the potent Hawaii attack.
This plus the loss of four members of the secondary make early season games against the likes of Colorado and Washington look truly scary, but flying somewhat under the radar would be a team like Louisiana Tech, which threw the ball and ran the ball well in 2010 and looks to improve in 2011.
Idaho
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Idaho at San Jose State: Saturday, November 5
Regardless of the fact that Idaho finished 2010 6-7, it is difficult to find a “trap”-type game for a team that has struggled for years.
Really, a decent target for this kind of contest in 2011 is San Jose State, which flies under everyone’s radar by virtue of finishing 1-12 and in last place in the WAC.
Idaho has historically struggled with San Jose State, which leads the all-time series 12-9-1.
Louisiana Tech
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Louisiana Tech vs. Houston: Saturday, September 17
The Bulldogs ranked a dismal No. 117 last season in pass defense, which makes their 2011 Week 3 game hosting QB Case Keenum and the Houston Cougars chilling.
Yes, despite the early-season loss of Keenum and his backup, the Cougars still managed a No. 5 overall ranking in passing yards last year.
Yikes.
Nevada
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Nevada vs. Fresno State: Saturday, October 22
As good as Nevada was in 2010, gone are most of the thrilling offensive players that drove it to a thrilling 13-1 finish.
But with the defense staying somewhat intact, it is hard to say who might “trap” the Wolf Pack. It won’t be Oregon, Texas Tech or Boise State, and it probably won’t be San Jose State, UNLV, New Mexico or New Mexico State.
That leaves someone like perhaps Fresno State, a team that won’t surprise Nevada but may be good enough to beat it.
New Mexico State
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New Mexico State at San Jose State: Saturday, September 24
The Aggies only won two games in 2010 and were ranked among the bottom 30 teams nationally in almost every major statistical category.
So who will offer NMSU a real surprise threat in 2011?
Well, the options realistically are San Jose State and New Mexico, the two teams that the Aggies beat in 2010.
I’m going with San Jose State because that game comes earlier (by one week), when hopes are still somewhat high.
San Jose State
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San Jose State at Utah State: Saturday, November 12
The Spartans' only win in 2010 was over FCS Southern Utah, which makes 2011’s schedule look almost insurmountable.
Seriously—at Stanford, at UCLA, versus Nevada, at BYU, versus Hawaii, versus Navy and at Fresno State.
That’s not even right.
The game that might surprise the Spartans? Realistically, there is not such a game on the schedule, so, we will defer to Utah State, a team that only won four games in 2011.
Utah State
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Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech: Saturday, October 22
The Utah State Aggies were quite successful running the ball last season; they ranked No. 41 in rushing yards and averaged almost 170 yards per game on the ground.
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs present an interesting matchup for Utah State, as they were very successful defending the run last season (ranked No. 40 nationally).
Still it’s a stretch to say this presents a "trap" for the Aggies because they will be challenged in every game with perhaps the exception of San Jose State and New Mexico State.
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