UFC 129 Fight Card Preview: Predictions for GSP-Shields and All 12 of the Fights

The anticipation continues to grow with UFC 129 just three days away. With many other fans and experts doing the same, I thought I’d throw my hat in the ring with my own predictions for St-Pierre vs. Shields and the other fights on this important card.

For the first time in UFC history, every fight on the card will be available for fans to watch, starting with the under card, which will take place on Facebook, and then followed by two fights on Spike TV prior to the pay-per-view.

Preliminary Card (Facebook):

Yves Jabouin vs. Pablo Garcia: Featherweight Bout
John Makdessi vs. Kyle Watson: Lightweight Bout
Jason MacDonald vs. Ryan Jensen: Middleweight Bout
Ivan Menjivar vs. Charlie Valencia: Bantamweight Bout
Claude Patrick vs. Daniel Roberts: Welterweight Bout

Preliminary Card (Spike TV):

Sean Pierson vs. Jake Ellenberger: Welterweight Bout
Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald: Welterweight Bout

Main Card (Pay-Per-View):

Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson: Lightweight Bout
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz: Light Heavyweight Bout
Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida: Light Heavyweight Bout
Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick: UFC Featherweight Championship
Georges St-Pierre vs. Jake Shields: UFC Welterweight Championship

The event, which many insiders are calling the company’s biggest since UFC 100, will take place this Saturday, April 30, from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

The main event will feature Canada’s top mixed martial artist, Georges St-Pierre, defending his UFC Welterweight Championship against the main who many believe to be his toughest challenge yet, Jake Shields.

Shields is an excellent all-around fighter with perhaps the best grappling skills of any fighter St-Pierre has ever faced in his sure-to-be Hall of Fame career.

But while that fight alone would be enough to get many fans to purchase the pay-per-view, the UFC has gone out of their way to stack this card with excellent fights all the way through.

One of those fights is the semi-main event which will feature UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo as he makes his UFC debut against a very dangerous Canadian opponent, Mark Hominick.

But it may actually be a fight with no title on the line that draws much of the attention from fans as MMA legend Randy Couture is set to step in the cage for what he claims to be his final fight, against Lyoto Machida.

With these great fights and many others on the under-card, fans will certainly get their money’s worth for this historic UFC event.

On to the predictions!

Yves Jabouin vs. Pablo Garcia: Featherweight Bout

Fans will be treated to a potentially very exciting opening fight between featherweights Yves Jabouin and Pablo “The Scarecrow” Garcia.

15-6 in his MMA career, Jabouin has been fighting professionally since 2001 and is a WEC veteran who has fought both Jonathan Brookins and Mark Hominick. He will be making his UFC debut in the first bout of this event.

Jabouin is primarily known as a kickboxer and has won 11 of his 15 fights by way of knockout during his nearly decade-long career.

His opponent, Pablo Garcia, is a former The Ultimate Fighter contestant who was a surprise first-round elimination from the show. But with a 9-0 professional record, Garza got his chance to compete in the UFC’s sister company, the WEC, in September of 2010.

Garcia took a fight against China’s Zhang Tie Quan on just five days' notice, replacing Jason Reinhardt who had to drop out of the fight due to not being medically cleared. While he was submitted in the first round, Garza earned himself a chance to compete in the very first featherweight fight in UFC history at The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck Finale.

Garcia earned knockout of the night honors by crushing Fredson Paixão with huge flying knee that brought the crowd to its feet. Paixão was unconscious for nearly two minutes after the fight and needed to be taken out on a stretcher.

The violent knockout earned Garcia an extra $30,000, but perhaps more importantly, another fight in the UFC.

Look for Pablo Garcia to push the pace heavily in this fight and look for another early knockout to line his pockets with another knockout of the night, submission of the night or fight of the night bonus. If he can avoid being counter-punched by Jabouin, I expect Garcia to use his striking to setup a takedown and attempt to finish the fight early in the first round with a submission.

Prediction: Pablo Garcia by Submission

John Makdessi vs. Kyle Watson: Lightweight Bout

Undefeated John “The Bull” Makdessi will be making his second UFC appearance after winning his first fight over Pat Audinwood at UFC 124.

Makdessi is a Canadian, who spent most of his career fighting in his home country before signing to compete against the best competition in the world in the UFC just last year. His kickboxing background has been the base for his mixed martial arts ability and has already earned him six knockout victories in his career and a one-sided victory in his UFC debut.

The much more experienced, but perhaps less physically gifted Kyle Watson will be Makdessi’s opponent at UFC 129. Watson is perhaps best known for his time on The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck, when he made it to the semifinals before he was defeated by teammate and eventual winner, Jonathan Brookins.

Watson is also fighting in just his second UFC event, but has been fighting professionally since 2003 and will be the much more experienced fighter.

As the lead jiu-jitsu instructor at Matt Hughes’ H.I.T Squad gym, Watson will almost certainly look to bring this fight to the ground in what could turn out to be an interesting chess match between these two fighters.

Given that Watson is the more well-rounded of the two fighters, I expect him to control the fight and edge out a decision victory. But this fight could very easily end in an early knockout the other way as well.

Prediction: Kyle Watson by Decision

Jason MacDonald vs. Ryan Jensen: Middleweight Bout

Jason MacDonald exploded onto the UFC scene by shocking The Ultimate Fighter Season 3 finalist, Ed Herman, and Chris Leben in back-to-back fights in 2006.

The submission expertise he displayed in those fights had him touted as perhaps the division’s hottest up-and-comer before he got absolutely destroyed by former UFC Middleweight Champion, Rich Franklin, in his first fight since losing to Anderson Silva.

Since that night, MacDonald has had a very up-and-down UFC career in which he has lost just about every fight to top-level opponents.

On the opposite side of the cage, Ryan Jensen is 15-7 in his career, but just 2-5 in the UFC. He has been submitted in all five losses while also submitting his opponents in his only two wins; both with guillotine chokes.

This is an extremely important fight for both fighters who may be close to getting the boot from the world’s top MMA company.

In the end, I believe that this is a fight that was almost tailored to be a submission victory for Jason MacDonald, who has supposedly re-committed to the sport.

Prediction: Jason MacDonald by Submission, Round 1

Ivan Menjivar vs. Charlie Valencia: Bantamweight Bout

Ivan Menjivar vs. Charlie Valencia: Bantamweight Bout

The UFC’s tiniest weight class will be represented well in this fight between two of the bantamweight division’s most exciting fighters, Ivan Menjivar and Charlie Valencia.

Menjivar has faced some of the top fighters in various weight classes including Georges St-Pierre, Matt Serra, Urijah Faber, Brad Pickett and Joe Lauzon. Unfortunately, the only one of those four that he beat was Joe Lauzon back in 2005.

Valencia is another fighter who has fought some top competition, but come out on the losing end. While he has looked good against lower-level talent, Valencia’s has lost to Urijah Faber, Cub Swanson, Brian Bowles, Dominick Cruz and, most recently, Miguel Torres.

As exciting as these two warriors can be, this may be a battle of gatekeepers.

If the fight stays on the feet, as I expect that it will, I believe Menjivar has a significant advantage.

Prediction: Ivan Menjivar by TKO, Round 2

Claude Patrick vs. Daniel Roberts: Welterweight Bout

In the final Facebook prelim fight of this event, Claude “The Prince” Patrick will square off against Daniel “Ninja” Roberts.

Patrick is a Toronto native who will certainly have the crowd in his corner for this, his third fight in the UFC. He has made the best of his first two UFC fights, defeating Ricardo Funch by decision at UFC 115 and James Wilks by decision at UFC 120.

His overall record sits at 13-1 with the only loss of his career coming all the way back in 2002, in just his second professional fight, to former UFC fighter Drew McFedries.

A brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Patrick feels comfortable on the ground and has won nine of his fights by way of submission. His opponent, Daniel Roberts, is a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu himself and has also submitted nine opponents.

I expect Roberts to actually try to keep this fight on the feet, despite the fact that he has never won a fight by way of knockout. His jiu-jitsu just may not be on the same level as Patrick’s.

One way or another, I see this one going the distance with these fighters being very evenly matched. Unless, of course, someone makes a big mistake.

Prediction: Claude Patrick by Decision

Sean Pierson vs. Jake Ellenberger: Welterweight Bout

In the first fight on Spike TV, welterweights Sean Pierson and Jake Ellenberger will do battle.

Pierson made his UFC debut at UFC 124 last December as he defeated Matt Riddle by unanimous decision in an exciting fight that Dana White referred to as, “the real fight of the night.” It was the first victory of his career by way of decision.

Ellenberger actually lost his UFC debut to Carlos Condit, but has been on an impressive three-fight winning streak since that night. The three wins have also come against three highly skilled opponents in Mike Pyle, John Howard and, most recently, Carlos Eduardo Rocha at UFC 126.

This would normally be considered a mismatch given the level of competition that the two fighters have faced over their careers, but Jake Ellenberger actually took this fight on just over two weeks' notice. The question may be whether Ellenberger has had enough time to get in shape and prepare for Pierson.

But I believe Ellenberger will be ready to go and he should be considered the favorite to win this fight with his wrestling. He is very strong and does have the power to knock out just about anyone in the division, but if he is smart, he will bring this fight to the ground where he should have the advantage.

Prediction: Jake Ellenberger by Decision

Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald: Welterweight Bout

The younger brother of Nick Diaz and teammate of Jake Shields and Gilbert Melendez, Nate Diaz has not quite had the recent success of his fellow Cesar Gracie jiu-jitsu members.

Since the five-fight win streak that started his UFC career, Diaz has dropped four of his last seven fights. It should be noted that the losses have been against top level talent, but they are losses nonetheless.

On the other side of the cage, Rory MacDonald is coming off the first loss of his career, a knockout loss to Carlos Condit at UFC 115.

Both Diaz and MacDonald are big-time finishers and have won “Fight of the Night” bonuses in the past with their submission and knockout victories. In their 23 combined wins, Nate Diaz is the only one who went to a decision—once.

I’m expecting a very exciting fight here which will see Rory MacDonald surprise fans by knocking down and finishing Diaz in a battle which I predict to be the Fight of the Night.

Prediction: Rory MacDonald by TKO, Round 2

Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson: Lightweight Bout

An incredible card highlighted by some huge main event fights may have many overlooking the fight which will open the pay-per-view broadcast, a lightweight battle between Mark Bocek and Ben Henderson.

There are better strikers in this division than either of these two, but this has the potential to be one of the best grappling matches we see all year. Both fighters have finished countless fights by submission and this one could very well end the same way.

In fact, Mark Bocek has gone on record with his claim that he has the best jiu-jitsu of any fighter in the UFC’s 155-pound division. He’ll have to prove it against former WEC Lightweight Champion, Ben Henderson, who has proven that he can slither his way out of some awfully painful and dangerous-looking situations in previous fights.

But with two fighters who have very similar skills on the ground, it could neutralize and be more of a battle on the feet than their normal fights are. If it does, don’t expect to see a knockout, as each fighter has been shown to have a great chin in the past and neither fighter has particularly great knockout power.

Ben Henderson is currently listed as a very slight favorite, but I feel that he’s being underrated with that betting line. It may be that people are remembering his loss to Anthony “Showtime” Pettis and thinking that he isn’t quite as good as he really is. But I expect “Bendo” to prove that he can be a force in the UFC.

Prediction: Ben Henderson by Submission, Round 1

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz: Light Heavyweight Bout

Perhaps the oddest fight to be on the main card of this big event is the light heavyweight contest between Vladimir Matyushenko and Jason Brilz.

Matyushenko is a UFC veteran, but may be best known for the brutal beating he took at the hands of new UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, Jon Jones. He got right back in the cage, though, and defeated Alexandre Ferreira at UFC 122 just three months later.

Like his opponent, Jason Brilz is also known to many fans because of the disappointing decision loss he took at the hands of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. The loss came as shock for Brilz and fans who thought he had won the decision easily.

UFC President Dana White and matchmaker Joe Silva seem to have been impressed by Brilz’s performance in that fight, though, and this pay-per-view main card appearance may be somewhat of a reward.

Matyushenko and Brilz are fairly similar fighters who are late in their MMA careers. Neither man possesses particularly excellent striking skills on the feet. However, both have very solid wrestling skills with good control when they get their opponents down.

Often when we see two wrestlers go at it, it becomes a war on the feet, which means that the fight could take both competitors out of their comfort zones.

At that point, I expect that the fighter with the better chin will hold up. While Matyushenko may be the better technical boxer, I believe that Jason Brilz will prove to be the fighter who can take more punches.

Once the two fighters have stopped trying to take one another down, look for Brilz to knock Matyushenko down with punches, but finish on the ground with a submission.

Prediction: Jason Brilz by Submission, Round 2

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida: Light Heavyweight Bout

In a fight that will likely end up being the last of a legendary career, 47-year-old Randy Couture will face Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida.

Machida, a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, is among the most dangerous strikers in the business and can make even the most veteran fighters frustrated with his elusive, yet still point-scoring style.

Couture is one of only two fighters (BJ Penn) to hold UFC titles in multiple weight classes and is already a member of the UFC Hall of Fame.

Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson put together game plans to beat Machida, but Randy Couture is generally known as the best game planner in all of MMA.

However, with this potentially being the last fight of his career, we may see a completely different Randy Couture from what we are used to seeing. We may just get a fighter who lays it all on the line in an effort to give fans something to always remember him by.

Machida would prefer to keep this fight at a distance on the feet, while Couture will almost certainly look to close the gap and work from within the clinch.

Unfortunately for Couture, I see this fight going the way of the extremely patient, yet effective Machida, as he carves up Couture on the feet. If Couture can get the fight to the ground, that will likely be his best chance, but very few fighters have ever been able to do much to Machida on the ground, so it’s hard to believe that it will suddenly change.

Prediction: Lyoto Machida by TKO, Round 3

Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick: UFC Featherweight Championship

The newly-created UFC featherweight division will have its first title fight as champion Jose Aldo defends the belt against Canada’s own Mark Hominick.

The former WEC champion, Jose Aldo, was crowned as the inaugural UFC Featherweight Champion upon the two organizations merging earlier this year. He has been battling injuries and will be making his long-awaited UFC debut this Saturday night at UFC 129.

On the surface, this appears to be perhaps the biggest mismatch on the card, but Mark Hominick appears confident heading into a fight where he is over a 3-to-1 underdog in Vegas.

Hominick is a very patient striker who has the talent to stand with just about anyone in the featherweight division. He utilizes a technique that may frustrate the champion with very accurate punches that don’t often leave him open for counter-striking.

His aggression comes in waves, but when he does come with the punches, he is very difficult to stop.

Jose Aldo, on the other hand, prefers to load up and use a combination of vicious leg kicks and powerful shots to both the body and head that could end the fight at any time. He is one of the few fighters in the smaller weight classes who possesses the power to end a fight with one shot.

While Mark Hominick has some skills that could cause Jose Aldo some trouble, the overall game of the champion is going to be too much in this fight.

I expect a lot of feeling out early in the fight, with a close Round 1 that may actually go to the challenger. But by the second round, I expect Aldo’s leg kicks to start paying dividends as he slows Hominick down and begins landing some big shots up top.

Prediction: Jose Aldo by TKO, Round 2

Georges St-Pierre vs. Jake Shields: UFC Welterweight Championship

The main event of this monumental event will feature the man whom many believe to be the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet, and perhaps the greatest of all-time, Georges St-Pierre, as he defends his UFC Welterweight Championship against Jake Shields.

With St-Pierre being arguably the top pound-for-pound fighter on the planet, and one of the greatest of all time; he is currently listed as a big favorite in this fight...And for good reason.

GSP is perhaps the most complete fighter on the planet with his tremendous cardio, impressive standup and world-class wrestling.

The biggest question that will be answered in this fight is whether St-Pierre can come forward with his usual force against a submission expert like Jake Shields.

While St-Pierre would normally just be able to toss his opponents around due to his superior strength, many believe that Shields will at least be able to neutralize things in that regard. If the fight does end up on the ground and Shields is on his back, St-Pierre will have to be cautious and avoid getting caught in submissions.

Ever since St-Pierre was knocked out by Matt Serra back in 2007, he has completely dominated every fight he has been in. Making use of a new, more careful style, St-Pierre hasn’t even been in trouble in any fight since that crazy night at UFC 69.

Many expect this fight to be wrestling-versus-jiu-jitsu war, but I’m actually going in another direction.

I see this fight being a lot like St-Pierre’s second fight with Josh Koscheck, with him attempting to keep the fight standing up where he has a significant advantage. Rather than allowing Shields the opportunity to submit him, St-Pierre will continue with his cautious aggression and pick Shields apart on his way to a unanimous decision.

Prediction: Georges St-Pierre by Decision

UFC 129 St-Pierre vs. Shields: Fight Card, News, Predictions, Results, and More!