College Football 2011: 50 Legitimate BCS Contenders for 2011
The BCS is sort of like one of those large transparent boxes that air is blasted into so wads of cash included inside can fly around wildly.
Instead of letting teams inside to see how much money they can grab in a prescribed amount of time, the BCS locks the box with a wide variety of locking mechanisms and then hides the keys all over the world.
To open the box, programs literally have to dodge bullets, put their lives and good names on the line, and pass a ridiculous number of tests to even stand in line with one of the keys.
Not written officially in the rules for “the BCS cash box” but strictly observed is the fact that programs that aren’t already blessed with a cash cow in their pastures aren’t even allowed to play the game and find the keys.
Sure, you tell them they can find the keys and open the box, but you don’t really mean it; it just looks fairer if you say everyone has the same opportunities.
Ah yes, the BCS...celebrating not the “best” teams in college football but the ones that “qualify” to be the best.
So, who has a legitimate opportunity to stand in line with a key in 2011?
Who can win their conference, or finish second, or who from a non-BCS conference can go undefeated and receive a coveted “at large” bid?
Remember, these aren’t the 50 best teams in college football—these are the 50 that could make it to the “five-game showcase of college football.”
Air Force
1 of 50
Q: When is the last time a service academy was in the BCS?
A: Never.
How thrilling would it be to see Air Force break through to the BCS?
As members of the Mountain West conference, the road to the big dance is fairly clear: go undefeated.
This means beating TCU in Colorado Springs in Week 2, beating Navy, Notre Dame and Boise State on the road, and beating Army at home.
The Falcons return six offensive and seven defensive starters from 2010; key returners are QB Tim Jefferson and RB Asher Clark, who combined to lead Air Force to a No. 2 ranking in rushing yards last season.
Will Air Force Make the BCS in 2011? Not likely but definitely possible. If it happens, it will truly be historic.
Alabama
2 of 50
Listed among the top five in most preseason rankings, the Crimson Tide are candidates to win the SEC West, capture an SEC crown and earn a BCS bid.
“Earn” will be the key element to whichever team represents the SEC in the BCS; for Alabama, it means beating Penn State on the road in Week 2, surviving road trips to Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Auburn, and being successful at home versus Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU.
Once the West is won the Crimson Tide will have to win the SEC Championship on September 3 in Atlanta.
Alabama returns six offensive and nine defensive starters in 2011; key losses are QB Greg McElroy, RB Mark Ingram and WR Julio Jones.
Will Alabama Make the BCS in 2011? Whoever survives the SEC West in 2011 will likely represent the conference in the BCS; this may well come down to the November 5 meeting with LSU in Tuscaloosa. But in the SEC, every week is perilous.
Arizona
3 of 50
Despite the fact the Wildcats closed out their 2010 campaign with five consecutive losses, there is still reason to be somewhat hopeful going into 2011.
Arizona returns six starters to each side of the ball in 2011; on the plus side, QB Nick Foles, top receiver Juron Criner and RB Keola Antolin are all back, while on the minus side, four starters from each the offensive and defensive lines are gone.
To reach the BCS, the Wildcats first must win the new Pac-12 South, which offers the advantage of counting as members newcomers Utah and Colorado and having USC still out of the postseason conversation.
Someone has to win the South, and whoever does will get a shot at the Pac-12 title game, which is a sure avenue to the BCS.
An early-season string of games that are over by mid-October may tell whether the Wildcats have a realistic chance; at Oklahoma State, at home against Oregon and then Stanford, at USC and then at Oregon State.
Will Arizona Make the BCS in 2011? Seems like a long shot, but with Arizona State as a dark-horse candidate to win the new Pac-12 South, anything could happen, literally.
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Arizona State
4 of 50
Ah...the Sun Devils, the trendy choice to do more in 2011.
But, will a team that went 6-6 in 2011 really turn the ship all the way in the direction of a first ever BCS appearance?
The Sun Devils have a whopping 19 starters returning in 2011 (No. 5 nationally) from a squad that, other than an ugly loss to Cal and an understandable loss to Oregon, managed to only narrowly lose four of their contests (nine-point total margin of defeat).
But does stability result in wins?
We’ll know early how “for real” Arizona State is and then it either will be ugly or magnificent; it all starts in week two when Missouri comes calling followed by a road trip to Illinois, visits from USC and Oregon State and then a nasty little road with stops in Utah and Oregon.
Can they win the new South?
Can they save Dennis Erickson’s job?
I can’t wait to find out.
Will Arizona State Make the BCS in 2011? The Sun Devils have a lot to prove before they can be reclassified from a “dark horse” candidate to a “contender”. At least on the surface, the Pac-12 South seems the right venue for such a transformation.
Arkansas
5 of 50
Lost somewhere in the talk of Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn is Arkansas. Oh yeah...the Razorbacks, the team that went 10-3 and finished ranked No. 12 in the final AP poll, the SEC’s “other” representative in the BCS.
Yes, gone are QB Ryan Mallett and three offensive linemen, but back in the saddle is RB Knile Davis, who was the No. 16 rusher in the country last season.
The key for a Razorback return to the BCS in 2011 is obviously winning the SEC West and then either capturing the SEC title or finishing with the second-best record in the conference.
This means beating Alabama on the road, winning at LSU, beating Texas A&M in Arlington and holding off Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee and Mississippi State at home.
Will Arkansas Make the BCS in 2011? The Razorbacks seem to be overlooked because LSU and Alabama are ranked in the preseason top five and because of the loss of Mallett. But isn’t McElroy gone from Alabama, and didn’t LSU have significant issues with the quarterback position in 2010?
Arkansas definitely has a shot to play well in 2011, and in reality, it is their schedule that may be the biggest hurdle.
Auburn
6 of 50
After winning it all in 2010, it would seem prudent to put Auburn on the list of 50 teams who could make it to the BCS in 2011.
Perhaps this is exactly the logic behind placing the Tigers in the preseason Top 25 rankings.
In reality, Auburn will struggle to repeat, as they return only seven total starters in 2011, which is the lowest number in all of FBS football.
Add to this the obligatory SEC West slate of games, and though you have to respect what they did in 2010, it is hard to predict a repeat performance of any kind.
Will Auburn Make the BCS in 2011? Not likely, but it will be intriguing to see how quickly Gene Chizik and company can rebuild the Tigers.
Baylor
7 of 50
In 2010 the Bears finally ended a devastating central Texas football drought with a relative flood of Baylor wins. Yes, the seven wins the Bears tallied last season matched the best Baylor finish since 1995 and the first bowl appearance since 1994.
The big question going in to 2011 is, will the momentum and confidence finally gained in 2010 plus the return of most of the offensive firepower equal more wins?
Well, the biggest obstacles will be returning only five starters to a defense that ranked No. 89 in scoring in 2010 and a schedule that includes hosting TCU in the opener, road trips to Texas A&M and Oklahoma State, and home games against Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas.
Will Baylor Make the BCS in 2010? Any Big 12 team other than Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State or Texas must be considered a long shot to do anything short of making a decent bowl game.
Baylor gets the edge as a “dark horse” over Texas Tech and others due to their stability at the offensive skill positions. However you slice it, it just doesn’t seem likely.
Boise State
8 of 50
The Broncos make their move from the WAC to the Mountain West Conference just as Utah and BYU bolt, respectively, to the Pac-12 and independent status.
This is significant because it makes Boise State’s regular season slate of games easier than it would have been if the Utes and Cougars had still been MWC members.
The Broncos return seven offensive and seven defensive starters from 2010, and the key losses are the top two receivers Austin Pettis and Titus Young, who helped lead Boise State to a No. 6 ranking in passing yards.
If Boise State wants to return to the BCS equation, they will need to go undefeated; it’s that simple.
The Broncos BCS fate will be decided early when they meet Georgia in Atlanta in the opener; other critical contests are a string of tough home games including Tulsa, Nevada, Air Force and TCU.
Will the Broncos Make the BCS in 2011? If they can overcome the loss at receiver, Boise State has a realistic shot of running the tables (especially given the fact that the Broncos play most of their quality opponents at home).
If they survive Georgia (which in reality will be a home game for the Bulldogs), then everyone will no doubt be looking at the TCU game as the next hurdle.
For me, I think the Tulsa game may be the trickiest match-up for the Broncos, and the season may hinge on that meeting.
BYU
9 of 50
The Cougars declaration of independence seems to have muffled any talk of how they will actually play in 2011.
And really, just what will it take for BYU to make the BCS? At this juncture, the Cougars have no deal in place (Notre Dame is the only independent team that does) for how BCS inclusion works.
Realistically, BYU will have to go undefeated to be part of the 2011 BCS equation, which means running the tables on a schedule that includes stops at Ole Miss, Texas, Oregon State and Hawaii. Significant home games are against Utah and UCF, and the Cougars will meet TCU in Arlington at the end of October.
BYU returns a whopping 10 offensive and six defensive starters in 2011 from a team that went 7-6 last season in what was labeled a rebuilding year.
Will BYU Make the BCS in 2011? Though it doesn’t seem probable, BYU makes an interesting case for a long shot at quietly running the tables in 2011.
California
10 of 50
Ok, Cal in the BCS in 2011? Yes, that sounds a little crazy, even to me.
But, this is a team that returns seven offensive and five defensive starters (yes QB Kevin Riley is gone) from 2010, and this is a team that is only one year removed from winning eight games.
Last year’s 5-7 finish marked Cal’s worst performance in the Jeff Tedford era; I think it’s safe to say Cal is going to play better next season.
The really interesting aspect of the Golden Bears 2011 campaign is their placement in the new Pac-12 North division.
What if Stanford and Oregon struggle. Sure, it shouldn’t happen, but what if it does? Who takes over then and who lands in the Pac-12 championship, which is all you need to do to clear a trail to the BCS?
It won’t be easy; Cal has Stanford and Oregon on the road and the schedule is made dicer with trips to Colorado (a non-conference game for 2011), Washington, UCLA and Arizona State.
Will Cal Make the BCS in 2011? Not likely, but you never know.
Clemson
11 of 50
Clemson is yet another team that may be flying under the radar going into 2011.
When you talk about the ACC, you immediately think of Florida State, Virginia Tech and even NC State, Maryland and Miami (FL) before you stop to consider the Clemson Tigers.
That could be a mistake.
What if Florida State loses to Oklahoma early in the season? What if 2010 was the crowning achievement of teams like NC State and Maryland? Who then will be there to pick up the ACC Atlantic Division mantle and march bravely forward?
It will be Clemson.
Returning a whopping 17 starters from 2010, the Tigers lose QB Kyle Parker and RB Jamie Harper but return a host of talented athletes.
Yes, the schedule is tough, but the silver lining here is the proving ground necessary to put Clemson back in the national spotlight. Florida State, Auburn and North Carolina are home games, but road trips to Virginia Tech, Maryland, Georgia Tech, NC State and South Carolina will be rough.
Will Clemson Make the BCS in 2011? Though it doesn’t seem likely, stranger things have happened in the ACC. If Florida State struggles, Clemson has a chance to win the ACC Atlantic, which is mandatory for their first ever BCS appearance.
Florida
12 of 50
A whole new cast of characters will be in place in Gainesville when the curtain rises on the Gators 2011 season.
Though everyone is talking about Will Muschamp’s hair and Charlie Weiss’ pro-style offense, let us not forget that missing from the 13 returning starters in 2011 are four offensive linemen and six of the front defensive seven.
But the Gators are still stacked with the speed and talent you would expect and how the new coaching staff melds this skilled group together will be exciting to watch.
Can they win the SEC East and then another conference title?
A stretch of games that start in mid September will tell the tale for the 2011 Gators; Tennessee at home, at Kentucky, Alabama in the Swamp, at LSU, at Auburn and then Georgia in Jacksonville after a week off.
Will the Gators Make the BCS in 2011? Florida is oozing with speed and talent, which makes them a threat to make the BCS each and every year.
It is interesting that the Gators have only been out of the BCS picture for one year; doesn’t it seem like Florida is a team “fighting” their way back in? The road may be shorter than it seems.
Florida State
13 of 50
Well, Florida State is certainly a frontrunner not only to make it to the BCS but to play in its fourth BCS title game.
The path that leads to a mere BCS appearance is simple: win the ACC Atlantic, win the conference championship and dance the BCS money dance.
Florida State returns eight offensive and eight defensive starters but will be replacing QB Christian Ponder and two stellar linebackers.
Key games for the Seminoles include a blockbuster Week 3 visit from top ranked Oklahoma, road trips to Clemson and Florida and home meet and greets with Maryland, NC State and Miami (FL).
Will Florida State Make the BCS in 2011? The Seminoles have as good as a chance as anyone in the country, but it’s no done deal.
If they beat Oklahoma (no easy task), the road trip to Clemson the following week becomes absolutely tantalizing as does every subsequent game while they are still undefeated.
Georgia
14 of 50
How bad was Georgia in 2010?
Well, apparently they were bad enough to make everyone forget how well they’ve played since 1996, which was the last time they won less than eight football games.
The Bulldogs return 17 starters in 2011, including QB Aaron Murray.
Georgia not only has the advantage of “flying under the radar”; they also will play to win a SEC East division that presents certain inherent opportunities.
Yes, Tennessee is still struggling; Florida is undergoing a transformation which leaves South Carolina with a big target on their backs.
The schedule isn’t easy, but come on, this is the SEC.
The Bulldogs have South Carolina (precariously placed in Week 2), Mississippi State, Auburn and Kentucky at home but will hit the road to face Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida and Georgia Tech.
LSU and Alabama are fortuitously off the schedule.
Yes, there is that little game against Boise State in the opener, but it will be played in Atlanta (which is virtually a home game with very green turf), and though it’s an absolute must win for the Broncos, it’s not for the Bulldogs.
Georgia’s whole season won’t end if they lose to the Broncos; they can still win the SEC East and still win the SEC and still go to the BCS.
Still, beating Boise State would be sweet.
Will the Bulldogs Make the BCS in 2011? I think Georgia has as good as an opportunity as South Carolina or Florida. With LSU and Alabama off the schedule, don’t be surprised if the Bulldogs meet one of the two in the SEC Championship game on Saturday, December 3 in Atlanta.
Georgia Tech
15 of 50
The Yellow Jackets in the 2011-12 BCS picture certainly doesn’t seem likely, but somebody has got to win the ACC Coastal division.
With the Hurricanes still in flux, the Hokies offensive firepower gone and the Tar Heels still reeling from the sanctimonious effects of sanctions, why not Georgia Tech?
Sure, win the division, win the ACC title game and BOOM, it’s the Ramblin’ Wreck in the BCS!
On the minus side, Georgia Tech losses a plethora of skill players from 2010 and returns only 12 starters; on the plus side, the upcoming schedule is at least digestible.
The only daunting road trips are to Miami (FL) and to NC State while North Carolina, Maryland, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Georgia are all home games.
Florida State is off the schedule completely.
Will Georgia Tech the Make the BCS in 2011? Not likely, but again, who will emerge as the true front runner in the ACC Coastal division?
Houston
16 of 50
The Cougars came into the 2010 season as a potential “BCS Buster” but ultimately watched their dreams die hard when both starting QB Case Keenum and his back-up were lost during the Week 3 game versus UCLA.
All seemed lost until the NCAA granted Keenum an additional year of eligibility in 2011, which suddenly has Houston back on the radar.
If the Cougars have any real shot at making a BCS fantasy a reality, they will have to go undefeated in 2011, and though teams from Conference USA such as Tulsa or SMU might seem more attractive candidates, it's Houston’s schedule that sets them apart.
Home games are UCLA, FCS Georgia State, East Carolina, Marshall, Rice and SMU and road trips are to North Texas, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, UAB, Tulane and Tulsa.
UCF and Southern Miss, both good teams from the East Division, are completely off the schedule.
Will Houston the Make the BCS in 2011? Though it seems completely unlikely, if the Cougars knock off the Bruins in the opener, they have a realistic chance of running the tables in 2011.
The closing game against Tulsa is intriguing, the Golden Hurricanes were a great team last season and return most of their starters, but they have an ugly schedule (Boise State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are all on the slate). If it comes down to the last game, it could be epic.
As far-fetched as it sounds, it could happen.
Illinois
17 of 50
The Illini find themselves in the new Big Ten leaders division, which includes Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State.
The reason to include them on this list is as a healthy answer to the unlikely question, “what if the Badgers, Nittany Lions and Buckeyes all tank in 2011?”
Illinois winning the new division seems less likely with their personnel turnover from 2010 which includes the loss of RB Mikel Leshoure, two offensive linemen and four stellar members of the defensive front seven.
The Illini do have the benefit of a somewhat cooperative schedule with Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin all travelling to Champaign.
Will the Illini Make the BCS in 2011? Not likely, but we’ll no doubt learn more about the 2011 Illinois squad when Arizona State visits on September 17.
LSU
18 of 50
In the 2011 Tigers, we have another top ranked team with an opportunity to do more than simply make a BCS appearance.
But, with Alabama hanging around in the same division and a tantalizing non-conference schedule, nothing is a given.
The Tigers return eight offensive and seven defensive starters in 2011 and open the season against Oregon in Arlington, Texas.
Other road trips of note are delightful visits to Mississippi State, West Virginia, Tennessee and Alabama, while Florida, Auburn and Arkansas are home games.
Will LSU Make the BCS in 2011? LSU has as good as a chance of making it to the Promised Land as does SEC divisional foe Alabama. The real juggernaut for the Tigers is that schedule, that dauntingly awesome schedule.
Whether you like LSU and freaky deaky Les Miles or not, you have to respect them scheduling both Oregon and West Virginia in the same season, and you have to admit that if they make a successful run through their 2011 slate, then the Tigers richly deserve any high prizes they might be awarded.
Maryland
19 of 50
The Terrapins went 9-4 in 2010, finished second in the ACC Atlantic and finished the season ranked No. 23 in the final AP poll.
Still, and even though they return seven starters to each side of the ball in 2011, you will be hard pressed to find a preseason Top 25 that includes Maryland.
Respect is hard to come by when you live just north of our nation’s capital.
The Terrapins road to their second ever BCS appearance will have to include capturing a ACC Atlantic Division title, which means knocking off Florida State, who looms as the most formidable hurdle.
There is no time to get the engine primed at Maryland with the opener against Miami (FL) in College Park followed by a visit from West Virginia after a week off.
Though Florida State, Georgia Tech and NC State are all road games, Clemson and Notre Dame are both home contests.
Will Maryland Make the BCS in 2011? If Florida State falters, Maryland has as good as chance as anyone (with the exception of NC State, which could be argued either way) of winning the division. Besides a tough schedule, the Terrapins must deal with replacing their top receivers to keep the ball moving in 2011.
Miami (FL)
20 of 50
Though the Hurricanes return 13 total starters in 2011 (including QB Jacory Harris), gone are the top rusher, the top receiver, three members of the defensive front seven and three cornerbacks.
Though new coach Al Golden will no doubt have Miami fired up, there is lots of retooling to be done in sunny Coral Gables.
Obviously, in order to make its fifth all-time BCS appearance, the Hurricanes will have to win the ACC Coastal division and win the ACC title.
When is the last time they did that? Never.
Seriously, since bolting the Big East for the new and improved ACC, the Hurricanes have never claimed even a divisional title.
Standing in Miami’s way in 2011 are road trips to Maryland (in the opener), Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State and USF and home games against Ohio State, Kansas State, Georgia Tech and Boston College.
Will Miami Make the BCS in 2011? Well, you’ve got to think Virginia Tech’s loss of offensive firepower is a good thing for Miami, who, at least on paper, should have a decent shot at an elusive Coastal title.
But, the schedule is just flat wrong. Ohio State? Kansas State? Florida State and Virginia Tech on the road?
Come on, man.
Michigan
21 of 50
Michigan may turn out to be one of the most interesting stories of 2011.
Sure, it’s Brady Hoke, it's Denard Robinson and it’s (and Michigan fans can hope it is) the revival of defense in Ann Arbor.
But, what makes 2011 interesting for Michigan is their placement in the new “Legends” division, which includes Michigan State, Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern and Minnesota.
What’s really fun is trying to figure out who the frontrunner is in that crowd.
Does Michigan State recreate the magic from 2010? Can Iowa rebuild that quickly? Can Dan Persa really take Northwestern to the top? And what about Nebraska; how will that play out?
With a whopping 20 returning starters (tied for the second most nationally), the Wolverines make as good as a case as any of these for capturing a first ever Legends title and a shot at the Big Ten’s big enchilada.
Key games include a Week 2 visit from Notre Dame, road trips to Northwestern, Michigan State and Iowa and a fantastic finish that wraps up the season with back-to-back visits from Nebraska and Ohio State.
Will the Wolverines Make the BCS in 2011? As fantasy filled as it seems, I say Michigan has as good as an opportunity to do so as does any other team in the entire Big Ten.
Michigan State
22 of 50
The 2011 season will tell us if the Spartans' 11 wins in 2010 was a magical romp through Fantasyland or instead the predecessor of a team that continues to be a threat to the Big Ten title week in and week out.
Michigan State returns 13 total starters in 2011, which includes most of the offensive skill positions and the defensive line, but it is without two great linebackers.
Like Michigan, the Spartans have the unique advantage of playing in the new Legends division of the Big Ten, which will be interesting to watch as, at some point, a leader begins to set itself apart from the rest of the pack.
Key games include road trips to Notre Dame, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern. Michigan and Wisconsin are both home games.
Will the Spartans Make the BCS in 2011? If they can recreate some of the magic from 2010, the Spartans have as good as a chance to win the Legends as does Michigan and Nebraska.
Why do the 2011 Spartans remind me so much of the 2010 Iowa Hawkeyes?
Mississippi State
23 of 50
Returning 15 total starters from 2010 the Bulldogs most serious loss is that of its linebacker corps, which was instrumental in earning Mississippi State a No. 21 ranking in scoring defense.
The biggest roadblock for the Bulldogs finally busting into the BCS is the one that has been firmly planted in front of them since the BCS began boggling minds back in 1998; the SEC West.
Yes, Mississippi has got to find a way to make it to the SEC title game (and win it) if they want to earn their spot among the BCS elite.
This is a job which is obviously made dramatically more difficult with SEC west foes Alabama and LSU anticipating a 2011 BCS title run.
For the Bulldogs in 2011 it will be road trips to Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky and Arkansas with LSU and Alabama both thankfully being home games.
Will the Bulldogs Make the BCS in 2011? Gosh, I’d like to say yes, but, I’m thinking not so much. But, if Alabama struggles with replacing its top three skill players and LSU continues their woes at quarterback and falters with a tough schedule, then anything could happen.
Missouri
24 of 50
Besides the loss of QB Blaine Gabbert and three members of the secondary, the Tigers return an impressive 17 starters in 2011.
For Missouri BCS, inclusion means somehow capturing a Big 12 title; a feat that has eluded the Tigers since the conference was founded in 1996.
But, there is no Big 12 Championship game in 2011 so the Tigers just have to manage more wins than... mmmmm...Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Texas.
Key games include road trips to Arizona State, Oklahoma (ouch) and Texas A&M while Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech are all home games.
Will the Tigers Make the BCS in 2011? Even with the shrinkage and lack of a championship game, it’s a tough year to be in the Big 12. If anyone can overtake Oklahoma, A&M, OSU or Texas, it’s Missouri, but unfortunately, there are a lot of “ifs” in that equation.
NC State
25 of 50
The team with the most realistic chance of knocking Florida State off in the ACC Atlantic division is NC State.
Returning eight starters to each side of the ball including QB Russell Wilson, the Wolfpack’s most serious losses are its two top receivers and three members of the defensive line.
Despite a road trip to Tallahassee to face the Seminoles, the schedule is doable; road trips to Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Virginia and Boston College are complimented by home games against Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Clemson and Maryland.
Will NC State Make the BCS in 2011? Florida State is no shoe in, even for the ACC Atlantic title. NC State is a good team and is positioned perfectly to make a surprise run in 2011. This is considerably helped along by the huge heaps of hype that the Seminoles are receiving in the media. If this suitably puffs up FSU’s heads, then who knows?
Nebraska
26 of 50
Like Michigan and Michigan State, the Cornhuskers first season in the Big Ten Legends division will prove to be intriguing.
Just as you can make a solid argument for the Wolverines and Spartans emerging as the divisional leader, it’s easy to see the Nebraska at the top of the new heap.
Though QB Taylor Martinez will be back in Lincoln in the fall, gone are all but four other offensive starters; the biggest losses are at offensive line and running back (leading rusher Roy Helu is gone), which is particularly significant for a team that finished 2010 ranked No. 9 in rushing yards and No. 113 in passing yards.
Defensively, the line stays almost completely intact, but three starters from the secondary are gone.
Key games for the Cornhuskers include road trips to Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan. Ohio State, Michigan State, Northwestern and Iowa are all at home.
Will Nebraska Make the BCS in 2011? Again, who knows who will win the Big Ten in 2011, and more specifically, who knows who will win the Big Ten Legends Division in 2011?
Nebraska has more personnel turnover to address than does Michigan (with obvious coaching turnover) and Michigan State, and they have the added job of being in a new conference with unfamiliar opponents.
Still, the Cornhuskers will have a shot.
North Carolina
27 of 50
The Tar Heels take us back to the ongoing discussion regarding who will win the ACC Coastal division, and, other than the obvious choice of Virginia Tech, why not North Carolina?
You have to be impressed with how UNC coped with the NCAA issues that sunk the Tar Heels defensive driven dreams in 2010. Finishing 8-5 wasn’t sub-par or mediocre; yes, given the circumstances it was quite an achievement.
Heading into 2011, the Tar Heels return only 14 total starters, taking the biggest hits at the offensive skill positions.
The schedule includes road trips to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Clemson and NC State, while the Tar Heels have the benefit of welcoming Miami (FL) to Chapel Hill.
Will North Carolina Make the BCS in 2011? It really seems less than likely that the Tar Heels can win the Coastal division in 2011 mainly due to their losses at the offensive skill positions and a rough road schedule.
But, with what Butch Davis did in 2010 after losing so much talent, you have to believe that UNC will be better on the field than they look on paper.
Northwestern
28 of 50
If this was the high school yearbook, Northwestern would be voted “Least likely to win the new Division”.
Yes, with a membership that includes Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska and Iowa, the new Big Ten Legends division will be daunting for Northwestern.
But Northwestern returns 17 total starters in 2011 which is second only to Michigan in the new division.
Key returnees include QB Dan Persa, top receiver Jeremy Ebert and RB Mike Trumpy.
Besides early tests at Boston College and at Army, the Wildcats will travel to Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska, while Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State are all home games.
Ohio State and Wisconsin are absent from the regular season schedule.
Will Northwestern Make the BCS in 2011? It just doesn’t seem likely, but if Dan Persa is back to starting form in the fall and given the somewhat favorable schedule, Northwestern is at least a “dark horse” candidate in what should be a wild divisional race.
Notre Dame
29 of 50
Well, in 2011, the BCS’ “Notre Dame” clause may have its most realistic opportunity of being utilized since it was last used back in 2007 when the Irish were extended a bid to the BCS Sugar Bowl (a game in which they got man handled resulting in a 41-14 loss to LSU, the only way for NBC to make that look good is if they extend the hand of friendship to their dyslexic viewers).
The “Notre Dame” clause gives the Irish the unique opportunity to earn a BCS bid if they are ranked No. 8 in the final BCS standings.
This means Notre Dame will more than likely have to finish the 2011 season win one loss or less.
The Irish return an impressive 18 total starters in 2011 (tying them for No. 4 overall nationally), and the biggest question marks loom at running back.
It all comes down to the schedule, and Notre Dame must win and win often to make it to the BCS dance, therefore providing NBC the glory of using every sports cliché in the book.
Road games are at Michigan, at Pitt, at Wake Forest, at Stanford and Maryland at Fed Ex Field in Landover, Maryland.
Home contests are against USF, Michigan State, Air Force, USC, Navy and Boston College.
Will Notre Dame Make the BCS in 2011? The pieces are in place for a BCS run in South Bend, and the Irish’s schedule is somewhat front loaded to the point that by the off week in mid October, we may know how misty eyed NBC is going to get.
Ohio State
30 of 50
Taking Jim Tressel’s precarious position out of the equation, we are left approaching the Buckeyes campaign in three steps.
Step One: Can Ohio State survive the first five games without the body art services of the“Tat Five” and the Vest? To recap the five games are as follows: Akron and Toledo at home, Miami (FL) on the road and Colorado and Michigan State on the road.
While there are certainly no guaranteed wins, the fact that Akron and Toledo are there, early, as test games for the “replacement” offensive skill players may be fortuitous.
Step Two: After the “Tat Five” and the Vest return (again, we’re assuming he will for this analysis), how long will it take them to get up to speed and then can they win the remainder of their games?
Key games are at Nebraska, at Illinois and at Michigan with tough home stands against Wisconsin and Penn State.
Step Three: Can they manage to all of the above amidst the backdrop of the scandal, media hype and despite the fact they return only 13 starters from 2010.
Key losses include four members of the front defensive seven and four starting members of the secondary.
Will the Buckeyes Make the BCS in 2011? Ohio State has been in the BCS more than any other team since the madness began back in 1998. The last time they missed the BCS cut was in 2005.
Even without Tressel-gate, Tattoo-gate and the Indian princess Sanction-a-hontis, the Buckeyes would have had more work to do with the new format of the Big Ten. A divisional title and a championship game just would have made it harder.
Regardless, given the turmoil and turnover, it is easy to see the Buckeyes dropping more than one game in 2011, which may well be the year that they finally take a year off from the BCS.
The other deciding factor may be if Ohio State is ruled ineligible for postseason play in 2011; then the question becomes mute.
Oklahoma
31 of 50
Oklahoma is No. 1 in many preseason polls and have all the “right stuff” for a BCS bid and a shot at the crystal football.
The Sooners return 17 total starters in 2011 and pack more punch from a skill position standpoint than does any other top ranked team.
For Oklahoma, it will come down to thrilling road contests at Florida State and at Oklahoma State, beating Texas in the Red River Rivalry and extending their home field advantage despite attacks from Tulsa, Missouri, Texas Tech and Texas A&M.
Will Oklahoma Make the BCS in 2011? You’ve got to think they will. Even if they drop the early game at FSU, the Sooners have the meat of their schedule at home and probably have a better chance of earning a BCS bid than does anyone else in the nation.
Oklahoma State
32 of 50
So, will the Cowboys finally punch the Aggies, Longhorns and Sooners in the mouth and earn their first ever BCS bid?
If they do, the defense will have to really improve, and the offense can’t lose a step despite the loss of OC Dana Holgorsen.
The Cowboys return nine offensive and five defensive starters from 2010, the key losses being RB Kendall Hunter and a disturbing five members of the defensive front seven.
Oklahoma State has Arizona and Oklahoma at home but must travel to Tulsa, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Texas Tech and Iowa State.
Will Oklahoma State Make the BCS in 2011? As much as I want to say yes, I’m going to say no. It’s the questions at defense, the new leadership offensively and an unfavorable schedule that make you believe that the Cowboys will do well to finish third in the Big 12.
Oregon
33 of 50
The Ducks are another team that is expected to fly high in 2011 and return six offensive and five defensive starters from last season.
Most of the offensive firepower is back, and the biggest concerns are with the defensive front seven, where Oregon losses six starters.
After winning the last Pac-10 title won without a championship game, Oregon enters the bold new world of the Pac-12 as members of the North division, which also includes Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State.
If the Ducks can repeat as Pac-12 champs, they need to first win the West and then move forward to the title game, which is scheduled for December 3 and will be hosted by the team with the best in-conference record.
Key games are the blockbuster contest with LSU in Arlington, Texas in the opener and road trips to Arizona and Stanford.
Will Oregon Make the BCS in 2011? If defensive questions can be answered early, Oregon has as good of chance of making the BCS as any other Pac-12 team. The LSU game can be lost without losing a shot at the BCS.
Oregon State
34 of 50
The 2011 Beavers share a similar set of circumstance as do their now divisional foes, the California Golden Bears.
Both teams are well coached, come off disappointing 2010 campaigns and both are new members of the Pac-12 North division that is headlined by Oregon and Stanford.
The main difference between Cal’s 5-7 and Oregon State’s 5-7 is the fact that the Beavers played a more difficult schedule.
Oregon State returns only 12 total starters in 2011; the biggest losses are in the defensive front seven, where the Beavers lose five starters from last season and Jacquizz Rodgers on offense.
Any remote hope of BCS eligibility means the Beavers have to find a way to win the North by virtue of jumping ahead of Oregon and Stanford in the standings. Key games are at Wisconsin, at Arizona State, at Utah, at Cal (in San Francisco) and at Oregon. Stanford, UCLA, BYU, Arizona and Washington are all at home.
Will Make Beavers the BCS in 2011? Any outside chance of this happening might be firmly squelched by a really nasty schedule.
Penn State
35 of 50
When you look at the new divisional format for the Big Ten, a quick glance at the “Leaders” division highlights Ohio State and Wisconsin as head liners.
But, with both these powerhouses facing rather large question marks Penn State might be flying a bit under the radar.
Returning 16 total starters from 2011, the Nittany Lions are far more than the third option in the new Leaders division.
The highlights of the schedule include a visit from Alabama in Week 2 (a game that could be lost without losing hope) and a three punch combination to close out the season that includes a home game versus Nebraska followed by back-to-back road games at Ohio State and at Wisconsin.
Will Penn State Make the BCS in 2011? I think this can happen. With everything going on in Columbus and some serious questions on the offensive line in Wisconsin, Penn State has a good opportunity to win the division and face the “Leaders” winner in the first ever Big 10 championship.
It’s also a benefit that the Nittany Lions will have the entire season to work out their quarterback questions before hitting that three game juggernaut in November.
Pittsburgh
36 of 50
Somebody has to win the Big East in 2011.
Will it be West Virginia? Will it be USF? Or will it be Pitt, who returns 16 starters and has the benefits of the services of new head coach Todd Graham?
The biggest losses from 2010 are the leading receiver, the leading rusher and four members of a defensive unit that ranked No. 15 in scoring.
Key games include road trips to Iowa, Rutgers, Louisville and West Virginia. Notre Dame, USF, Utah, Cincinnati and Syracuse are all home games.
Will Pitt Make the BCS in 2011? Pittsburgh should not be overlooked as a candidate to win the Big East and make the BCS, but the schedule may be the biggest concern for the Panthers in 2011.
Rutgers
37 of 50
After winning only one conference game in 2010, it’s hard to imagine the Scarlet Knights will be back in contention in 2011.
But Rutgers returns 10 offensive starters this season including QB Chas Dodd. The biggest concern is defensively, where the Knights return only five.
The total returning starters (16) is second only to Pitt and Cincinnati in the Big East.
Though Rutgers will travel to North Carolina, Syracuse, UConn and Louisville; USF, Pitt, Army, Navy and West Virginia are all home games.
Will Rutgers Make the BCS in 2011? Probably not. But, if 2010 was just a blip on the radar for Rutgers (the Scarlett Knights went 43-21 the previous five seasons), then why count them out when deciding a winner for the Big East?
South Carolina
38 of 50
The defending SEC East champion Gamecocks return seven offensive and six defensive starters in 2011.
Much of the offensive firepower returns via the skill positions, but gone are four of the front defensive seven who contributed to an impressive 23.1 points per game allowed in 2010.
Like its SEC brethren South Carolina’s season will no doubt come down to trying to successfully maneuver its way through the conference schedule.
This task will be made more difficult in 2011 with the rising fortunes of SEC East Georgia and Florida.
The Gamecocks have Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi State and Arkansas on the road but host Navy, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida and Clemson at home in Columbia.
LSU and Alabama are both off the 2011 regular schedule.
Will South Carolina Make the BCS in 2011? The Gamecocks travel to Georgia to play the Bulldogs in Week 2, though South Carolina could conceivably lose this game and still move forward to the top of the SEC East a win would signal the beginning of another special season.
Can they finally make it to the BCS? My estimation is yes they can, but it will be even more difficult than it was last season.
Stanford
39 of 50
Though QB Andrew Luck and most of an improving secondary are back on campus at Stanford in 2011, gone are the top receivers and the heart of the offensive line, and oh yeah, gone also is coach Jim Harbaugh.
Though Luck is reported to have shredded defenses in spring ball, how much will the singular Cardinal miss Jim Harbaugh when it is time to prep the team for game day?
Stanford is now a member of the new Pac-12 North, which includes Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Washington and Washington State.
Oregon is definitely the other “team to beat” in the 2011 North division.
Key games for Stanford in 2011 include road trips to Arizona, USC and Oregon State. Fortuitously, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame are all home games.
Will Stanford Make the BCS in 2011? The Cardinal certainly has the personnel to make a repeat BCS performance, and with a schedule that is easier than Oregon’s, has a perfect platform in which to win the North.
TCU
40 of 50
Though TCU stormed to a perfect record, a Rose Bowl victory and a number two ranking in the final AP poll in 2010, a repeat performance is unlikely.
The Horned Frogs return only 11 total starters from their 2010 product, which nets them a ranking of second to last nationally.
Working in TCU’s advantage (held over similar teams like Auburn, who are also looking to rebuild coming off stellar 2010 performances) is its Mountain West schedule.
Road trips include stops at Baylor, at Air Force and a little game at Boise State. Significant home games are SMU and BYU.
Will TCU Make the BCS in 2011? Regardless of the monumental turnover in personnel, TCU still has a chance for another perfect season. The opener versus Baylor will set the tone (no easy task really) for what the Horned Frogs will do with their 2011 season.
Tennessee
41 of 50
What? The Volunteers.
Yes, Tennessee, and not just because I had to come up with 50 contenders.
The Vols return seven offensive and six defensive starters from 2010, with significant hits coming to the defensive front seven.
What’s interesting about the 2011 Volunteers is their opportunity to fly totally under the radar in the SEC East.
If Florida, South Carolina and Georgia all falter (and it could happen), then suddenly, Derek Dooley and the Tennessee Volunteers look attractive (and not because you’ve had too much to drink).
The Vols will have to win some shockers to make it happen: at Florida, at Alabama, at Arkansas and at Kentucky. Home games feature visits from LSU and South Carolina.
Will Tennessee Make the BCS in 2011? You know what, probably not. But, did you think Texas would go 5-7 in 2010? And that, my friend, is the beautiful thing about college football.
Texas
42 of 50
While all eyes are on Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, it’s easy to imagine Mack Brown and his newest friends plotting and planning their utter destruction of the Big 12.
Sure, they have all the money; why not take all the “W’s” too?
The Longhorns return eight offensive and six defensive starters from its walk of shame in 2010, but don’t overlook a program like Texas that is absolutely oozing with speed, talent and sheer power.
Texas faces UCLA, Missouri and Texas A&M on the road, while BYU, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are home games.
Will Texas Make the BCS in 2011? Don’t be shocked if they do.
Texas A&M
43 of 50
The Aggies are gigging themselves with the prospects that the 2011 season finally presents them with.
With 19 returning starters (tied for No. 3 in the country) and a somewhat agreeable schedule, Texas A&M seems a realistic candidate to overtake Oklahoma for the Big 12 crown.
The Aggies have to face Arkansas in Arlington in early October, have road trips to Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas State and host Oklahoma State, Missouri and Texas at home in College Station.
The huge game is a November 5 visit to Norman to face Oklahoma, where the whole campaign for a BCS bid could end or continue for either team.
Will the Aggies Make the BCS in 2011? Even with a loss to Oklahoma, the Aggies could make the BCS (if the Sooners make the title game), but it won’t be easy. Texas A&M can’t afford a two game slip-up if they want to bump up their game to the next level. You have to give the Aggies the nod over Oklahoma State by virtue of their defense.
UCF
44 of 50
Q: When is the last time a member of the Conference USA made it to the BCS?
A: Never.
And this is exactly why UCF, a team that has only been playing FBS/Division 1A ball since 2006, making it to the BCS is a bit of a pipe dream.
But, so was the Knights' 11-3 run in 2010 that ended with a 10-6 win over Georgia in the Liberty Bowl and a No. 21 ranking in the AP Poll. All were firsts for UCF.
The Knights return seven offensive and four defensive starters in 2010 and will have to be perfect to even be considered a threat to the BCS elite.
Perfection means road wins over BYU, FIU, SMU, UAB, Southern Miss and East Carolina and home victories against Boston College, Marshall, Memphis, Tulsa and UTEP.
Will UCF Make the BCS in 2011? Probably not. The Boston College game in Week 2 and the BYU game in Week 4 will tell us a lot about the 2011 Knights. Wouldn’t it be sad if these guys ran the tables and were still excluded from the BCS?
Think it wouldn’t happen? Please refer to the 1998 Tulane team (11-0), the 1999 Marshall team (12-0) and 2008 Boise State (12-0), all who were not included in the BCS.
UCLA
45 of 50
As dicey as the new Pac-12 South division is, even UCLA will be included in a list of BCS contenders.
It’s Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and USC (who is not postseason eligible), and it’s all up in the air in 2011.
UCLA returns 16 starters in 2010, which is second only to Colorado and Arizona State in the South division.
Back on campus is RB Jonathan Franklin, who led the Bruins to a No. 32 ranking in rushing yards (a statistical triumph when considering their No. 116 ranking in passing yards), but gone is virtually the entire offensive line that cleared the way.
Rick Neuheisel’s staff revival will have to make big waves at UCLA if they are to have an outside shot at even a divisional title; but again, how good is Arizona State?
The schedule doesn’t mess around; highlights are: at Houston, at Oregon State, at Stanford, at Utah and at USC. And don’t forget about home games against Texas, Cal and Arizona State.
Will UCLA Make the BCS in 2011? It’s not looking probable, but with the new division format, suddenly, anything is possible.
USF
46 of 50
Again, someone has got to win the Big East (and represent them in the BCS).
USF returns only 12 total starters from 2010 with key losses all over the field.
But, Skip Holtz will continue to improve the Bulls, and other than road trips to Notre Dame (in the opener) and Pittsburgh, most of the meat of the schedule is played at home in Tampa.
Will USF Make the BCS in 2011? OK, let me answer that question with another question, “Will UConn make the BCS in 2010?”
Utah
47 of 50
How quickly can a successful program like Utah ramp up its play to the level of a BCS conference like the Pac-12?
Well, for its first try, Utah will have the benefit of being in the new Pac-12 South Division, which lacks a clear leader going into next season.
The Utes return seven offensive and five defensive starters in 2011; key losses include both leading rushers, one of the leading receivers, four members of the defensive front seven and three members of the secondary.
Hardly good news for the folks up in Salt Lake City.
But, somebody has got to win the South and face the North in the first ever Pac-12 title game. And that somebody will enter the conference championship game one win away from the BCS.
Utah faces USC, BYU, Pitt, Cal and Arizona on the road, while Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA and Colorado are home games.
Will Utah Make the BCS in 2011? I think it’s safe to say that Utah (a team that is 33-6 in the last three seasons) has as good as a shot at winning the South as does Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado or UCLA.
Maybe the Utes are actually the best “dark horse” candidate in the Pac-12 in 2011?
Virginia Tech
48 of 50
The Hokies have captured both the ACC Coastal Division title and the ACC conference crown three out of the last four years.
That type of track record makes it difficult to count out the Hokies even with the loss of QB Tyrod Taylor and two of the leading rushers who helped Virginia Tech earn a No. 23 ranking in rushing yards in 2010.
Key games in 2011 are at Georgia Tech and homestands against Clemson, Miami (FL), Boston College and North Carolina.
Will Virginia Tech Make the BCS in 2011? It is a real possibility, but how easy is it to replace a guy as good as Tyrod Taylor, and, if they make it there, can the Hokies knock off Florida State in the title game?
West Virginia
49 of 50
The Mountaineers make the most compelling argument for winning the Big East in 2011.
If they can overcome substantial defensive losses (five members of the front seven and three members of the secondary) and catch-on quickly to new OC (and coach-in-waiting) Dana Holgerson’s “air it out” offensive scheme, the sky is the limit.
Back-to-back early non-conference tests at Maryland and hosting LSU highlight a schedule that is somewhat manageable.
Will West Virginia Make the BCS in 2011? West Virginia has a great opportunity to win the Big East and make their third ever BCS appearance (they are 2-0 in BCS games). What’s standing in the way is defense retooling and offensive execution. If it all goes well, look for the new Mountaineer offense to be obscenely racking up both yards and wins in 2011.
Wisconsin
50 of 50
A front runner in the new Big Ten “Leaders” division, especially given the recent chaos in Columbus, the Badgers are also many folks' preseason pick to win the Big Ten.
But what about the loss of QB Scott Tolizen? Sure, Wisconsin only ranked No. 75 in passing yards last season, but how easy is it to replace an on field leader like Tolizen, and what do the Badgers look like without him? Also, when the heart of the offensive line is being replaced, what does this do to the running game?
Sure, most teams are facing similar questions, but can Wisconsin do so successfully amidst the backdrop of home games against Oregon State, Nebraska, Penn State and road trips to Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota and Illinois?
Will Wisconsin Make the BCS in 2011? Despite the loss of Tolizen, it is hard to pick a more likely representative from the Big Ten than the Wisconsin Badgers.
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