College Football 2011: A Preliminary Look at the SEC Western Division

Every fan has heard the old adage defense wins championships. This old adage, as with most, must be taken with caveats. A team with a passable defense and good offense will beat a team with an overwhelming defense and a mediocre offense most times.

In 2010 there were four teams in hot contention for the SEC western division. Two of those teams had very good defenses and mediocre offenses, neither won the division. The other two teams had passable defenses and good offenses and they took the top two spots in the division.

Statistics Per Game 2010

Team	Alabama	Arkansas	Auburn	LSU
Total Defense	286.38 yards	347.92 yards	368.36 yards	307.15 yards
Pass Defense	176.23 yards	185.31 yards	169.85 yards	259.25 yards
Rushing  Defense	110.15 yards	162.62 yards	109.07 yards	137.31 yards
Scoring Defense	13.54 points	23.38 points	24.07 points	18.23 points

These teams’ final standings in the SEC Western Division were.

1. Auburn (No. 1 nationally)
2. Arkansas (No. 12)
3. LSU (No. 8)
4. Alabama (No. 10)

This is how another old adage was proved to be less than reliable.

There is a very simple reason for this: the improvement curve for offenses is unlimited, and the improvement curve for defenses is very limited. Only a very few outstanding defenses have ever finished the season allowing less than 10 points per game average.

For 2011 this puts Alabama and LSU in a difficult position. For either team to hope to improve their position in the SEC West, they can only hope for their defenses to improve very little. They will likely have to look upon their offensive units for the improvement necessary to move up in the rankings.

Statistics Per Game 2010

Team	Alabama	Arkansas	Auburn	LSU
Total Offense	444.08 yards	482.54 yards	499.21 yards	341.31 yards
Passing Offense	261.15 yards	333.69 yards	214.43 yards	155.62 yards
Rushing Offense	182.92 yards	148.85 yards	284.79 yards	185.69 yards
Scoring Offense	35.69 points	36.46 points	41.21 points	29.69 points

Alabama and LSU are hoping to improve their chances with offense in 2011. For Alabama or LSU to do this, it will mean they need two players to average 100 yards rushing per game.

LSU has some hope of improving in passing offense and could pick up some of the needed extra production there. Alabama had the schools best year ever in passing offense in 2010 and is expected to take a step back in that area for 2011. They will need to pick up even more production running the football.

Both Auburn and Arkansas have averaged near the same offensive production over the last two seasons and that is expected to be close to the case in 2011.

One interesting point is that Auburn the eventual division winner only averaged about six more points per game on offense while Alabama the eventual fourth place finisher allowed almost 10 points less per game on defense. In head to head matchups, LSU, Auburn and Arkansas were all able to hold the Alabama offense to much less than their season average. Alabama lost two of the three games.

With the 2011 season approaching, it is a safe bet that both Arkansas and Auburn will once again have at least passable defenses and offenses that will average more than 30 points per game. It is also a safe bet that Alabama and LSU will have very good defenses and passable offenses that should score between 20 and 30 points per game in 2011.

In a division that likely has four of the top 10 teams in the nation; one touchdown in points can make the difference between playing for the BCS Championship and going to a lower ranking bowl.

The one point that is obvious is that Auburn and Arkansas will find it much easier to improve their defensive performance over 2010. Past history indicates that both teams will have powerful explosive offenses to go along with what should be some improvement on defense.

Going into the season the team that gives their game plan more flexibility will likely prevail. Teams that are more one dimensional will find the going difficult in games against top-tier SEC opponents.

Both Arkansas and Auburn came out of spring practice looking much better than anyone expected. Both Alabama and LSU look to improve their offenses over last season. What team will succeed in the SEC west is anyone’s guess, but the path to find out looks promising for college football fans.    

The SEC East currently has three of the top five ranked teams in the nation in baseball. Fans can expect the quality of football from the SEC West to be on that level for 2011 as well.