College Football 2011 Predictions: 11 Preseason Top 25 Teams Who End Up Unranked
It’s inevitable that a team expected to have a great season will for one reason or another fall short.
Some will enter the season ranked near the very top and predicted to make a BCS title run, but will ultimately drop out of the top 10 before the year is over. Others among the preseason Top 25 will free fall completely out of the rankings by December.
The ultimate recent example of this unsavory scenario is the 2010 Texas Longhorns. Texas was ranked among the top five teams preseason in 2010, coming straight off a BCS title game appearance, but by the time the dust settled, the Longhorns had unbelievably skidded to a 5-7 finish and were tied for second to last place in the Big 12.
Who saw that coming?
Whether it’s injuries, a brutal schedule, new quarterbacks, coaching changes or turnover in personnel, at least a few of the 2011 preseason Top 25 teams will drop enough games to not be included in the final rankings.
Here are 11 teams included in the 2011 early preseason polls (utilizing ESPN’s rankings) that may fall completely out of Top 25 by January 2012.
As a side note, 2005 was the last time when teams who finished with eight wins were ranked in the final Top 25; therefore in this analysis, we’re going to assume that teams have to manage nine wins to be ranked in the polls at the close of the season.
Mississippi State
1 of 11
If Mississippi State played in any division other than the SEC West, they would not be on this list.
Though Auburn might not play into the championship equation this season, LSU, Alabama and even Arkansas (who is being discounted by many) are all realistic candidates for at least a divisional title.
The Bulldogs return eight offensive and seven defensive starters from their 2010 team that went 9-4 and was ranked No. 15 in the final AP poll.
Returning are QB Chris Relf, RB Vick Ballard, most of the top receivers and a good chunk of the defensive line. Gone though are the Bulldogs' starting linebackers, which is a significant loss for a team that finished No. 21 in scoring defense.
For the Bulldogs it’s going to come down to mastering another brutal schedule and finding at least nine wins. Notably, their four losses in 2010 were to fellow SEC West foes Auburn, LSU, Alabama and Arkansas; the only divisional opponent they beat was Ole Miss in the closer.
Mississippi State will have to travel to Auburn and Arkansas, but has LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss at home. The Bulldogs will also have to square off with Georgia between the hedges, Kentucky on the road and South Carolina at home in Starkville.
Nine wins would be a stunning achievement and anything more would be a legendary season.
Virginia Tech
2 of 11
In 2010, the Hokies proved that two early season losses need not signal the total scrapping of a college football campaign.
After the ugly Week 2 loss to FCS James Madison, Virginia Tech reeled off 11 straight victories, an ACC title and a BCS Orange Bowl bid, ultimately finishing 11-3 and ranked No. 16 in the final AP poll.
In 2011, the Hokies return only six defensive and seven offensive starters; key losses are QB Tyrod Taylor and running backs Darren Evans and Ryan Williams.
Taylor, Evans and Williams combined for 1,990 yards on the ground, which was 72 percent of the Hokies' 2,782 rushing yards in 2010. Virginia Tech ranked No. 23 overall in rushing yards and only No. 72 in passing.
The Hokies' 2011 schedule is somewhat reasonable with Clemson, Miami (FL), Boston College and North Carolina all at home, and the bonus of Florida State completely off the regular season slate.
The big question is, will the Hokies be able to overcome their losses, retool and manage at least nine wins?
Their schedule and the relative stability on defense certainly make this a more distinct possibility for Tech than other teams with more difficult opponents in 2011.
But, will QB Tyrod Taylor be that easy to replace, and can the Hokies' defense provide enough cover to allow the offense to catch back up?
Arizona State
3 of 11
The Sun Devils have suddenly become the trendy choice for the "dark horse" team in 2011.
Arizona State went just 6-6 in 2010, but it’s important to remember that other than an ugly loss to Cal and an 11-point defeat by Oregon, the Sun Devils' margin of defeat in the other four games was a whopping nine points (to Wisconsin, Oregon State, USC and Stanford).
The Sun Devils return an impressive 10 offensive and nine defensive starters in 2011, which all points to better things in Dennis Erickson’s fifth campaign in Tempe.
The bottom line is that to stay among the best 25 teams in the land, the Sun Devils have to find three more wins in 2011 than they did in 2010, which is made significantly more difficult by the fact that a non-conference home stand with Missouri and then a road trip to Illinois are on tap early in the season.
The Pac-12 slate includes road trips to Utah, Oregon and UCLA, while USC, Oregon State, Colorado, Arizona and Cal are all home games.
So, will all those returning starters equal nine or more wins?
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Nebraska
4 of 11
I firmly believe Nebraska would have been a candidate for this type of list regardless of the big question of how the Cornhuskers will fare in the Big Ten.
Though QB Taylor Martinez will be back in Lincoln in the fall, gone are all but four other offensive starters and the defense brings back seven.
The biggest losses are at offensive line and running back with leading rusher Roy Helu gone, which is particularly significant for a team that finished 2010 ranked No. 9 in rushing yards and No. 113 in passing. Defensively, the line stays almost completely intact, but three starters from the secondary are gone.
As far as how a Big 12 team will fare in the Big Ten, it would seem prudent to quantify this unknown by stating that Nebraska was a member of the Big 12 North. This is not a team that went toe-to-toe with Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State on a yearly basis; this is a team that met these teams only on a rotating basis.
Saying Nebraska is a Big 12 team that has played under the rigors of Big 12 play, seems a bit of an overstatement.
For the Cornhuskers to still be in the Top 25 by the end of the season, they will have to overcome their personnel loses and find nine wins in a season that is stacked with Big Ten opponents. The Cornhuskers play at Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State and Michigan, and get Ohio State, Michigan State, Northwester and Iowa at home.
Absolutely no givens or certainties here; but holy Toledo, this is going to be fun to watch!
Auburn
5 of 11
Is it just me, or does Auburn being ranked No. 17 in ESPN’s preseason Top 25 seem to be nothing more than a show of respect leftover from what was a stellar 2010 campaign?
Indeed, who wants to leave the defending National Champs out of the Top 25?
With all due respect to the team that won it all last year, Auburn might have the least probability of finishing 2011 still in the Top 25.
Yes, QB Cam Newton is gone, but so too are all but seven starters; three return on offense and only four on defense. This total of seven returning starters is the lowest number in all of the FBS.
Add that monumental personnel turnover to a SEC West schedule, and you’ve got a really strong argument that Auburn might struggle in 2011.
Sure anything can happen, but we’re talking NINE wins among a murderers' row of opponents. The SEC West teams are tough enough, but the Tigers have road trips to Clemson, South Carolina and Georgia to sweeten the pot in 2011 also.
Wisconsin
6 of 11
The Badgers return only 12 total starters from their Rose Bowl squad in 2010. QB Scott Tolzien is gone, as is an alarming chunk of the offensive line and two stellar linebackers.
The good news is that Wisconsin returns running back duo James White and Montee Ball, who combined to lead the Badgers to a No. 12 ranking in rushing yards.
Regardless, many college football think tanks have Wisconsin as the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten crown, which now includes the formidable task of winning the new Leaders division and being victorious in the Big Ten championship game.
But what of the loss of Tolizen?
Sure Wisconsin only ranked No. 75 in passing yards last season, but how easy is it to replace an on-field leader like Tolizen, and what do the Badgers look like without him? When the heart of the offensive line is also being replaced, what does this do to the running game?
Most teams are facing similar questions, but can Wisconsin do so successfully amidst the backdrop of home games against Oregon State, Nebraska, and Penn State, along with road trips to Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota and Illinois?
Can they win nine games in 2011?
For me, it’s going to be a little harder than it looks.
South Carolina
7 of 11
After going 9-3 during the regular season, the Gamecocks dropped the SEC Championship to Auburn, then lost to Florida State in the Chick-fil-A Bowl to finish 2010 at 9-5 and ranked No. 22 in the final AP poll.
If South Carolina had lost just one additional game last season, they would have finished out of the Top 25.
And therein lies the concern in 2011; can the Gamecocks again manage nine wins ?
Key matchups include road trips to Georgia, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Arkansas, along with home stands versus Auburn, Kentucky, Florida and Clemson.
Additionally, non-conference games against East Carolina in Charlotte and a home game versus Navy are certainly no "cupcakes."
Hamstringing the Gamecocks will be the fact that although the meat of the offensive skill players are back from last season, gone are three solid offensive linemen and four of the defensive front seven.
Being in the SEC is no picnic, and it’s safe to say that all the teams that play within its difficult confines are precariously walking a tight rope. Any minor setback can cause the taut rope to tremble, and the balancing act ends with an unsightly fall from grace.
Let’s hope they don’t forget to install the safety net in Columbia.
Michigan State
8 of 11
Why is it so darn easy to underestimate that big green Spartan guy?
Michigan State may be the most overlooked team year in and year out in the Big Ten conference.
The flip side of that coin is, seriously, how did they manage to win all those games in 2010?
I mean, forget about that devastating shellacking at the hands of Alabama in the Capital One Bowl and remember all the close games; think about the overtime thriller against Notre Dame, the two touchdowns scored in the final two minutes to come back against Northwestern on the road, scoring 22 points in the fourth quarter to come back against Purdue and barely surviving a 19-point fourth quarter charge by Penn State in the season finale to secure a piece of the Big Ten pie for the first time in 20 years.
Returning in 2011 are six starters on each side of the ball, including QB Kirk Cousins, RB Edwin Baker and most of a stellar defensive line.
Gone though are two tremendous linebackers, two members of the secondary and three offensive linemen.
The Spartans will have to retool and face a schedule that will rate more difficult than did the 2010 slate that had them playing in the state of Michigan until Oct. 23, and the Spartans didn’t play Ohio State at all last season.
In 2011, the fun starts early with a mid-September visit to Notre Dame, followed by an early October visit to Ohio State. After a week off, Sparty hosts Michigan and Wisconsin back-to-back, then travels to Nebraska.
Will the magic of 2010 be back in 2011?
Can the Spartans manage only four losses?
If not, they’re out of the Top 25.
TCU
9 of 11
Not unlike Auburn, TCU might have earned a lofty spot in the preseason Top 25 (ESPN has them at No. 9) due at least in part to their stunning successes in 2010.
But the reality of the situation is that the Horned Frogs return only four starters to each side of the ball from their perfect, 13-0 Rose Bowl team that was ranked No. 2 in the final AP poll.
Gone is QB Andy Dalton, two of the leading receivers, four offensive linemen, three defensive linemen and four members of the secondary.
Yes, leading rusher Ed Wesley is back, and TCU was more successful on the ground than through the air, but he will certainly have less help around him in 2011.
What works to the Horned Frogs' advantage is that unlike Auburn, they won’t be playing a SEC West schedule. Instead, TCU has the benefit of retooling and rebuilding against Mountain West opponents, which now includes Boise State, but does not include Utah.
Nine wins?
It certainly could happen, but road trips to Baylor, Air Force and Boise State, plus home games against SMU and BYU could make things interesting.
Oklahoma State
10 of 11
The Cowboys are difficult to include on this list.
With all the talk of Oklahoma State finally busting through the Big 12 and onto the BCS scene, is it even remotely realistic to discuss the possibility of the Cowboys not even finishing 2011 in the Top 25?
Unfortunately, I think so.
Really, there are three major parts of the argument that the Cowboys may falter in 2011.
First, there is the very real loss of OC Dana Holgorsen, who in one year magically transformed the OSU offense. Sure it was absolutely the athletes that executed on the field, but the mastermind has left the building, and how the Cowboys react to this is a huge unknown.
Is it enough to hire a guy who says he’s just going to use the same playbook, or was part of the magic Holgorsen’s careful preparations and adjustments for each opponent and his game day decisions that made the Cowboys' offensive attack so consistently explosive?
Secondly, you’ve got the issue of defense. The Cowboys ranked No. 115 overall in pass defense last season, and they gave up a whopping 82 points in their only two losses to Nebraska and Oklahoma, both home games.
Oklahoma State returns only five defensive starters in 2011, and losses include three linemen, two linebackers and a cornerback.
The real concern becomes if the offense is not as productive and the defensive performance remains static, then suddenly you can’t count on simply outscoring teams and wins like 41-38 over Troy and 38-35 over Texas A&M become losses.
The last concern is the schedule, which is simply not easy. Teams like Oklahoma State don’t gain much from the departure of Nebraska and Colorado because they didn’t play them every year, and the Cowboys will still have to face Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and even Baylor, which is no longer as attractive as it once was.
Non-conference battles at home against Arizona and on the road versus a very good Tulsa team don’t make for an easy start to the season either.
Could they win it all? Possibly.
Could it all go very poorly? Perhaps.
In my opinion, Oklahoma State will be among the more intriguing storylines in 2011 since their season could quite literally go either way.
Ohio State
11 of 11
Saying the Buckeyes will finish out of the Top 25 by the end of 2011 is predicting a fairly catastrophic event.
The last time Ohio State finished the season with less than nine wins was 2004 when they "struggled" to an 8-4 finish, but still managed a No. 20 spot in the final AP poll.
The last time they finished a season completely out of the Top 25? 10 years ago in 2001, when they went 7-5.
Even given the calamitous events in Columbus with the "Tat Five" and Coach Tressel’s woes, it is hard to imagine that the Buckeyes won’t be winning at least nine games in 2011.
But the truth is these guys will have to play without five critical players for five games; yes, they will likely beat Akron and Toledo, but what of the road trip to Miami (FL) and the subsequent home games against Colorado and Michigan State?
And then you’ve got the rest of the slate, which includes road trips to Nebraska, Illinois and Michigan, plus visits to the Horseshoe by Wisconsin and Penn State.
Even when the tattoo people return from exile, Ohio State returns only a grand total of 13 starters from 2010.
I’m just saying, nothing is a done deal, and there simply are no guarantees, even in a place called Columbus, Ohio.
And to top it all off, there is still a possibility that Tressel’s current five-game ban might be increased or he might be dismissed altogether.
Worst case scenario for the 2011 Buckeyes is if Coach Tressel is in some way prevented from being a part of the preparation process that occurs between games; this punishment might prove far more detrimental to Ohio State football than solely preventing his presence at game time.
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