College Football Rankings: 10 Games That Will Shape the BCS Next Season
In college football, every game matters, but some matchups stand out as the difference-makers in any season. These high-powered battles between conference title contenders will have BCS bowl bids at stake even before the conference championship games are played.
Read on for the 10 biggest regular-season games of the year, along with the early pick to win each contest.
10. October 8: Connecticut at West Virginia
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For better or worse, the Big East still gets an automatic berth in a BCS bowl, so this meeting of the probable top contenders in the conference will have some very high stakes.
West Virginia has a slightly better shot to take the conference crown with a win here, as their toughest remaining opponent (Pitt) has to come to Morgantown, while the Huskies must play at Pittsburgh.
Home field will definitely play a role here, too, but the key to the game likely lies with Geno Smith. The Mountaineers QB will have had five games to get the feel of new coordinator Dana Holgorsen’s offense, and should be able to put up big numbers even against the Huskies’ Kendall Reyes-led pass rush.
Without Jordan Todman, UConn just won’t be able to put up enough points to match Smith and WVU. The Mountaineers will take it.
9. November 5: Texas A&M at Oklahoma
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Coming off a breakout 2010 season, Texas A&M is looking to reestablish itself as a Big 12 contender. They’ll face a daunting challenge against the defending conference champs on the road, with Oklahoma likely to come in undefeated.
The Aggies could come in with a perfect record themselves, though, assuming they hold serve at home against Oklahoma State and Missouri and survive a Cowboys Stadium showdown with Arkansas.
With 10 starters returning and Ryan Tannehill entering his second full season at QB, there aren’t many question marks on the Aggies’ offense. The same can be said for the Sooners, who boast Heisman contenders at QB (Landry Jones) and WR (Ryan Broyles).
The Aggies won last year’s meeting, but they had the home field advantage and Von Miller on their side. They’ll have neither in 2011, and Jones will lead the Sooners to what’s likely to be one of many shootout wins.
8. November 26: Florida State at Florida
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In a likely down year for the ACC, few teams seem equipped to challenge Florida State. The Seminoles will have plenty of work ahead of them, though, thanks to a killer non-conference schedule including both Oklahoma and this intra-state rivalry.
The Gators, under new coach Will Muschamp, will be battle-tested after a fearsome conference schedule that includes road dates with LSU and Auburn and a home showdown with Alabama. Two wins out of three in those meetings would be enough to have the Gators thinking BCS coming into this regular-season finale.
Both offenses return largely intact, with the exception of new Florida State QB E.J. Manuel, who takes the starting job full-time thanks to Christian Ponder’s departure. With explosive RBs Chris Rainey (Gators) and Chris Thompson (Seminoles), some big plays on the ground will likely swing the momentum in a see-saw affair.
Expect the Gainesville crowd to give the Gators just enough of an edge in this one. Florida’s defense will have a little more speed than the Seminoles’ offense, and will make one or two key plays to seal the deal.
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7. November 26: Alabama at Auburn
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Despite the loss of Cam Newton, Nick Fairley and swaths of other starters, Auburn will still be a dangerous team.
With RBs Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb to lean on, they’ll certainly put points on the board, and a defense long on upperclassmen might even be better top-to-bottom than last year’s, despite losing Fairley.
Alabama, though, boasts the best defense in a loaded conference, along with a star RB of their own—Trent Richardson—running behind a veteran line. They’ll be especially tough in pass coverage, with All-America candidates Mark Barron and Robert Lester at safety.
On paper this looks like a fairly easy win for the Tide, but Auburn’s won seven of the last nine in the series and will have home field here.
Stranger things have happened than an Auburn upset in the Iron Bowl, but not this time. With both QBs making their first starts in the rivalry, the defenses will determine the outcome, and Alabama’s is too good and too experienced not to come out on top.
6. November 12: TCU at Boise State
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Now a conference showdown with Boise State’s move to the Mountain West, this matchup of perennial BCS busters will effectively end the loser’s season and give the winner the inside track on a major bowl berth.
Barring another major upset like Nevada pulled last season, whoever takes this game will likely go unbeaten for the year.
TCU is a great team, but winning on the blue turf in Boise is a special challenge. (Of course, for the last several years, few teams capable of competing with the Broncos have been willing to make the trip, which has fattened Boise State’s record somewhat.)
Both defenses will be loaded, with the Broncos returning four all-WAC performers and the Horned Frogs three all-MWC defenders led by linebacker Tank Carder. Offensively, TCU’s trio of runners (led by senior Ed Wesley) faces off with four-year starting QB Kellen Moore’s passing game.
Quarterback play will tell the tale in this one. Casey Pachal shouldn’t be too much of a downgrade compared to the departed Andy Dalton, but he can’t match up with Moore, who may be a dark-horse Heisman candidate again.
The Broncos will take it behind Moore’s clutch play.
5. November 26: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
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Oklahoma has a very real chance to finish next season undefeated, with this game representing their biggest obstacle. Texas will likely need more than half a season to recover from last year’s slump and challenge a top five team, and Texas A&M has to play the Sooners in Norman.
Oklahoma State has a good chance for at least one conference loss after road dates with Texas A&M and Missouri, but could still be in the running for the Big 12 title with a win here.
The Cowboys will need every bit of their home field advantage, but their high-octane offense should keep the crowd fired up. Expect a reprise of last year’s shootout, with both QBs likely to put up video-game numbers.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they couldn’t win this matchup in Stillwater last year, either. With the key players on both sides being largely the same group (except for the Cowboys' loss of RB Kendall Hunter), there’s no compelling reason to believe OK State can pull it out this time around.
Expect another high score and another Sooners win.
4. October 1: Michigan State at Ohio State
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The final game of the suspensions to be served by Ohio State’s Tattoo Five, this meeting will have a lot to say about who takes home the Big Ten title. Each of these teams faces a tough test at Nebraska, but should otherwise be favored to win out in conference play.
The home field advantage for OSU will be a major bonus here, but much will depend on the play of the (as yet undetermined) QB who will be replacing Terrelle Pryor.
All-Big 10 corner Johnny Adams and the Spartans defense will be licking their chops at the chance to force turnovers against an inexperienced signal-caller.
If Joe Bausermann or one of his compatriots can keep from losing the game, Ohio State has a chance in a defensive battle. More likely, though, a late turnover or two will tip the balance to the Spartans, with Edwin Baker running out the clock on the Buckeyes.
3. November 12: Oregon at Stanford
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Both teams have a good shot to be undefeated in conference play coming into this game, and Stanford is highly likely to be undefeated overall. Oregon either will or won’t have survived their opener with LSU, but will be playing for the Pac-10 title either way.
These two teams combined for 1100 yards of offense in last year’s meeting, and this time around should be no different. Key defensive starters have graduated from each team (notably linebackers Casey Matthews of Oregon and Owen Marecic of Stanford), while the core offensive weapons return intact.
Oregon had to come back from a 21-3 opening deficit to win at Autzen Stadium last year. With Stanford holding the home field advantage this time, count on Andrew Luck to finish off the Ducks and give Stanford one of the biggest wins in school history.
2. November 5: LSU at Alabama
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If any team is going to come out of the SEC undefeated, it’s the winner of this game. The two best defenses in what looks like college football’s strongest conference will duke it out for a possible national title shot.
LSU, even if they’ve beaten Oregon in the opener, will still have had to get past Florida and Auburn to get here without a loss. The Tide will also have faced Florida (in Gainesville), though their meeting with Auburn comes later in the year.
A lot is going to depend on whose quarterback makes the fewest mistakes. Alabama will be starting A.J. McCarron or Phillip Sims, either of whom will be facing the toughest defense they’ll see all year. LSU’s Jordan Jefferson knows the Tide well, having pulled off a big win over Bama in the bayou last year.
If LSU were playing at home, the inexperience at QB would doom Alabama. With the game in Tuscaloosa, though, the Tide offense can try to play ball control and wait for LSU to make a mistake.
Expect lots of turnovers and not much scoring, with Alabama pulling out a squeaker.
1. September 3: LSU vs. Oregon (Game to Be Played at Cowboys Stadium)
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Amazingly, the season’s biggest game will come just as the year begins, when many ranked teams will be fattening their stats on the Savannah States of the world.
Whoever escapes from this neutral-site showdown of potential preseason Top 5 teams will be a serious contender for an undefeated season, with each team facing only one major road test afterwards (LSU at Alabama, Oregon at Stanford).
The matchup of Oregon’s high-flying offense and LSU’s ultra-fast defense should be one for the ages, but the edge goes to the Ducks because of the timing of the game and the experience of their offense.
Oregon returns its two most important offensive weapons, QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James, while LSU loses defensive captain Kelvin Sheppard and two other leaders in Patrick Peterson and Drake Nevis.
This early in the year, the Tigers will still be adjusting to their new personnel, and the Ducks will be closer to midseason form with Thomas running the show.
Oregon is the pick in a close battle.
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