Red Sox & Rays: Keep Your Friends Close, Your Enemies Closer

The Boston Red Sox head to Tampa Bay Friday night as the Sox and Rays open the American League Championship Series. The two teams battled often during the regular season—quite literally, with a notable brawl on June 5.

Since the Rays won 10 of the 18 regular season meetings, does that mean Tampa Bay will roll into the World Series? Or does the experience of the defending champions give Boston the edge?

Statistically speaking...

Much has been made of the pitching match-ups, with many analysts giving an edge to Tampa Bay because of the balance in the rotation and the depth of its bullpen. Don't get carried away with citing regular season stats, though; after all they include a host of players and circumstances that have no bearing on this series.

Four-man rotations are the norm in the playoffs. Tampa Bay's four started 122 games in the regular season, Boston’s started 119. So let’s toss out team figures and instead consider the following:

Tampa Bay's rotation of Shields, Kazmir, Garza, and Sonnanstine: 3.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, opponents batted .251

Boston's rotation of Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, and Wakefield: 3.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, opponents batted .239

It doesn't appear that Tampa Bay has a decided advantage when we look at the starting four. In fact, it could easily be argued that the Red Sox hold the edge.

Some pundits have given the Rays the nod in the series by virtue of the back end of the rotation. Andy Sonnanstine has been a solid fourth starter, while Boston is going with the aged knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield. Is that really an advantage for Tampa Bay?

Wakefield had a better ERA, better opponent’s batting average, and allows fewer baserunners. What everyone is really saying by giving the nod to Sonnanstine is that they prefer dependability to the potential that Wake's knuckler won't dance.

Speaking of being unpredictable, Matsuzaka's penchant for walks and high pitch counts has been a hot topic. Yet again, the numbers tell a different story. Dice-K allows 1.32 baserunners per nine innings, marginally higher than Sonnanstine's 1.29 and Kazmir's 1.27. Speaking of Kazmir, Matsuzaka actually goes deeper into games than Tampa Bay's ace, and Dice-K averages only one more pitch per inning than Kazmir.

So what does all this mean? It means pay less attention to stats than you have been. They can be twisted, polished, and manipulated to mean whatever you want—a fact all too clear during election season.

Other non-numerical rumblings…

The Red Sox have gone to great lengths to make the point that Beckett is 100 percent and will be the postseason pitcher of old now that the rust has been shaken off. The fact that he's not pitching Game One tells you that assertion is utterly false.

The explanation that starting Dice-K then Beckett would give them both the same amount of time between starts rings rather hollow. If Beckett were the Beckett of old, Terry Francona would rush him out the hill for the opener, no questions asked.

While Beckett may not be in top form, he also won't be the shell of himself that we saw in the ALDS. Not pitching for nearly two weeks certainly had an effect on him, and it showed. Don't expect Beckett to throw a gem, but he'll go deeper into the game than Kazmir and should pitch well enough to win.

Not too long ago, Kazmir was not only the best pitcher on the Tampa staff, he was the Tampa Bay staff. He still has the best stuff on the Rays, but like Beckett, he's not the same electric Kazmir we've seen before. He struggled in September and he does not go deep into games.

This not only taxes Tampa Bay's deep bullpen, but it could actually affect the outcome the night before he starts. Manager Joe Maddon might be reluctant to overuse his bullpen in Game One knowing that he'll probably need at least three relief innings in Game Two.

Although Tampa Bay's bullpen has been excellent, the absence of Troy Percival leaves a void that quite possibly can be exploited. In the last 25 years, only the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series without their clearly-defined closer. (Jason Isringhausen missed the 2006 playoffs with a hip injury.) Even bullpens by committee evolve to determine a de facto closer, or devolve into chaos.

Being a closer isn't just about stuff or statistics, it's about confidence and peace of mind. Winning closers have the confidence to know that every time they take the mound, the game is theirs. A strong closer gives his team the confidence to know that if they get a lead, he'll keep it. And a good closer's presence shortens the game for his opponents.

The Tampa Bay bullpen was lights-out against a Chicago White Sox team that had obviously run out of gas by the ALDS. Maddon has been masterful working through Percival's injury problems; it remains to be seen if Maddon's mastery will continue.

The final thought…

In the middle of the summer, two division rivals that didn't like each other came to blows. One was the successful Goliath to the perennial loser's David. The fight emboldened the underdog, which surged into the playoffs, where it met the very same division rival in the ALCS.

If you think I'm talking about the Red Sox and Rays, you're only half right. Think four years ago, not four months, and it was Boston and the Yankees. Alex Rodriguez kicked off a brawl that brought the Red Sox "idiots" together as a team, providing the confidence and attitude that propelled the Sox to their first World Series title in 86 years. The fight could easily be pinpointed as the moment the Sox turned the corner and became winners.

Earlier this summer, sitting in first place with two championships in four years, Boston was now the king of the mountain and the Rays were the loveable losers. When Coco Crisp charged the mound to take on James Shields, he may have ultimately done more harm than good.

The Rays came together as a team as a result of that incident, with a resolve and an attitude that they could now stand toe-to-toe with the league's best. Losers no more, Maddon convinced the young Rays that they didn't have to get pushed around by the likes of the Sox.

You can be sure that Maddon, the unconventional motivator that he is, will find a way to remind his pupils during the series. And if the Rays manage to win, the Red Sox may have to shoulder the blame for helping Tampa turn the corner, way back in June.