College Football 2011: Week 1 Game Predictions
Though you’d be correct if your opinion of Week 1 in college football is a few good games outnumbered by a bunch of lopsided contests you might be missing the point.
Yes, it’s the FBS vs. the FCS, and yeah, it’s the Sun Belt against the SEC and the ACC playing the WAC...but, this is the triumphant return of college football.
Indeed, Thursday, September 1st, marks the long-awaited return of college football; 120 teams, 15 weeks, buckets of chicken wings and a virtual plethora of fine beverages.
The summer draws to a close, baseball is forgotten; oh yeah, the sound of the ball hitting the bat is finally over taken by the musical stylings of the officials' whistles, the quarterback calling the snap and the overwhelming joy of noise produced by a throng of mindless, illogical, desperate dedicated college football fanatics.
Our season has arrived, and life, with meaning, begins once again.
Put the marriage on hold, cease gatherings that don’t center around a large high definition television and screw any and all diets.
The following slideshow boldly looks ahead, 135 days into the future and offers predictions for every single Week 1 game for the 2011 college football season.
Nothing is more important than this article.
Amen.
Northwestern at Boston College
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Relative to the traditional mismatches in Week 1, the Eagles hosting the Wildcats is solid clash between two BCS schools.
Both teams went 7-6 in 2010, both lost their bowl games, and both return similar number of starters in 2011.
The Wildcats are 2-1 all time against BC, and the two haven’t met since 1993.
If Northwestern QB Dan Persa is 100 percent, the Wildcats should have the edge regardless of Boston College’s clear advantages—playing at home and returning seven starters to what was a dominant defensive unit in 2010.
Prediction: Northwestern in a close game
Troy at Clemson
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The Sun Belt’s Troy Trojans have the unenviable task of travelling to Clemson for their 2011 season opener.
Clemson returns 17 starters in 2011 while the Trojans return 12 total and only four to an offense that ranked No. 20 in scoring in 2010.
Clemson and Troy have never met.
The Tigers have the clear advantage in this game, though it may not be a blowout, don’t expect an upset.
Prediction: Clemson by two touchdowns
Richmond at Duke
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FCS Richmond finished 2010 at 6-5 with two of their six victories coming in overtime. Duke, on the other hand, finished last season with a disappointing record of 3-9.
The good news for the Blue Devils is that they return seven offensive and six defensive starters in 2011 including QB Sean Renfree who led Duke to a No. 22 ranking in passing yards.
Though this might look like an upset opportunity, don’t count on it.
Prediction: Duke by two touchdowns
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ULM at Florida State
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The Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe finished 2010 at 3-5 while Florida State went 10-4 and was ranked No. 16 in the final AP poll.
ULM and Florida State have never met in football.
The Seminoles should handle the Warhawks easily, and after a Week 2 game against FCS Charleston Southern, FSU should be undefeated when hosting Oklahoma in Week 3.
Prediction: Florida State by a bunch
Western Carolina at Georgia Tech
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This game is among the 11 Week 1 contests that will be played on Thursday night, September 1st, which marks the real start of the 2011 season.
Georgia Tech finished 2010 a disappointing 6-7 while FCS Western Carolina went only 2-9 last season.
The Yellow Jackets return only six offensive and seven defensive starters in 2011 but should still easily handle the Catamounts.
Prediction: Georgia Tech by a bunch
Miami (FL) at Maryland
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Slated for Monday night, September 5th, the Hurricanes' and Terrapins' game puts an exclamation point on the long-awaited first full weekend of college football in 2011.
Both squads finished 2010 in second place in their respective ACC divisions, but Maryland’s season showed a lot more promise.
Miami and Maryland both return similar numbers of starters, and both return their starting quarterback from last season. Both also will have a new head coach on the sidelines in 2011.
Surprisingly, the Hurricanes and Terrapins have evenly split their 16 previous meetings.
This is a hard game to call as both teams are talented, but the edge goes to Miami who is more athletic team top to bottom.
Prediction: Miami in a nail biter
Liberty at NC State
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FCS Liberty finished 8-3 in 2010 while NC State went 9-4 including a 23-7 thumping of West Virginia in the Champs Sports Bowl.
The Wolpack return eight starters to each side of the ball in 2011 including QB Russell Wilson who led NC State to a No. 18 ranking in passing yards.
Anything can happen in college football, but NC State should have no problem extinguishing the Liberty Flames.
Prediction: NC State by a bunch
James Madison at North Carolina
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Don’t expect a repeat of FCS James Madison’s 2010 stunning upset of Virginia Tech in 2011.
The Tar Heels, no doubt, are well aware of the Hokies' woes at the hands of the Dukes and should beat them handily.
If there is a stunner involving FCS and BCS teams in Week 1, the shock will likely be involving other parties.
Prediction: North Carolina by two touchdowns
William & Mary at Virginia
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FCS William & Mary (as a couple) went 8-4 in 2010 while the Cavaliers finished 4-8 and dropped their last four games in a row.
Virginia returns eight offensive and seven defensive starters in 2011 but loses QB Marc Verica who led the Cavaliers to a No. 25 ranking in passing yards, the statistical highlight of 2010.
Virginia will, no doubt, be improved in Mike London’s second season but don’t be surprised if the Tribe keeps it closer than it should be.
Of note, two of William & Mary’s four losses in 2010 were a six-point defeat at the hands of James Madison and a 21-17 loss to North Carolina.
Prediction: Virginia in a nail biter
Appalachian State at Virginia Tech
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Really, it’s unfortunate (for this specific instance) that the Hokies were shocked by FCS James Madison last year. The 21-16 bombshell upset in 2010 means that Virginia Tech will not be lulled into overlooking any FCS opponent—especially one as potentially hazardous as Appalachian State.
The Mountaineers went 10-3 in 2010 and Virginia Tech returns only 13 total starters (not including QB Tyrod Taylor) from its ACC Championship team in 2011.
I am almost tempted to say Appalachian State has more than a marginal chance of upsetting the Hokies, but the James Madison shocker makes me believe that Virginia Tech will be more than ready for the Mountaineers visit in 2011.
Prediction: Virginia Tech by at least a touchdown
Wake Forest at Syracuse
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Wake Forest finished last season a dismal 3-9 while Syracuse surprised everyone with an 8-5 record that included a two-point victory over Kansas State in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Wake Forest should improve with eight starters returning to each side of the ball, and the ‘Cuse return seven offensive and five defensive starters to a team that was defensively dominant.
The Orange and the Demon Deacons have only met once, in 2002 when Wake Forest triumphed 20-10.
This should be a good game, but Syracuse gets the nod due to home-field advantage, and the fact that, while the Demon Deacons should improve, this is still a team that dropped nine straight games in 2010.
Prediction: Syracuse by more than a touchdown
TCU at Baylor
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With LSU versus Oregon and Georgia against Boise State headlining Week 1, this matchup may be unfairly overlooked as one of the best of the weekend.
TCU will return only eight total starters from their undefeated Rose Bowl champion team in 2011 while the Bears bring back eight offensive and five defensive starters to a team that had managed a solid 7-6 finish (especially given the Big 12 schedule).
TCU and Baylor are old rivals from the Southwest Conference with TCU holding a narrow 50-49-7 in the overall series.
Baylor with all its offensive firepower back may be too much for a TCU team who is going to need to totally retool in 2011.
Prediction: Baylor in a close one
Northern Iowa at Iowa State
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FCS Northern Iowa went 7-5 in 2010 and ended their season with a 14-7 loss to Lehigh in the first round of the FCS playoffs.
Iowa State went 5-7 in 2010 which must be put into perspective by considering they played what Phil Steele rated the hardest schedule in college football.
The Cyclones return 14 starters in 2011 but have already said a fond farewell to QB Austen Arnaud.
Paul Rhoads continues to field a formidable squad, and Iowa State should triumph over the in-state rival Panthers.
Prediction: Iowa State by two touchdowns
McNeese State at Kansas
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FCS McNeese State (Lake Charles, Louisiana) went 6-5 in 2010 while the Jayhawks skidded to 3-9 finish under first-year head coach Turner Gill.
Kansas returns eight offensive and six defensive starters to a team that was not statistically dominant in any category, but that said, they should improve in 2011 (and not just because they can’t get much worse).
The Jayhawks, like the Hokies, aren’t likely to be shocked by a FCS opponent in 2011 after dropping the 2010 opener in ugly fashion (6-3) to FCS North Dakota State.
Prediction: Kansas by a bunch
Eastern Kentucky at Kansas State
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Kansas State returns only five offensive and six defensive starters to a squad that went 7-6 in 2010.
Regardless of the turnover, Bill Snyder will have his Wildcats ready for the opener.
Of KSU’s six losses in 2010, they were competitive in all but one—a 48-13 thrashing at home versus Nebraska.
FCS Eastern Kentucky went 6-5 in 2010 and finished second in the Ohio Valley Conference.
Prediction: Kansas State by a touchdown
Miami (OH) at Missouri
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It’s easy to lose sight of the fact that Missouri tied Nebraska for the Big 12 North division crown in 2010 but ultimately missed the championship game by virtue of losing their head-to-head battle with the Cornhuskers.
Missouri returns nine offensive and six defensive starters in 2011 but are without NFL-bound QB Blaine Gabbert.
Miami (OH) proved the prognosticators incorrect in 2010 by finishing the season 10-4 as MAC East Champs. Gone is the RedHawk coach but back are nine offensive and eight defensive starters including QB Zac Dysert who led Miami to a No. 32 rank in passing yards.
Missouri is 1-0 all time versus Miami (OH).
This game may be a shocker with Miami upsetting Missouri who will miss Blaine Gabbert and a good chunk of their secondary more than they may have anticipated.
Prediction: Miami (OH) by a nose
Tulsa at Oklahoma
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This matchup sets up an interesting scenario in the state of Oklahoma.
Tulsa went 10-3 in 2010 and ended the season ranked No. 24 in the final AP polls. The Golden Hurricane return an impressive eight offensive and eight defensive starters in 2011 (minus their head coach but with their quarterback).
Oklahoma, on the other hand, finished last season 12-2 and return eight offensive and seven defensive starters for 2011.
This is no cupcake game.
Oklahoma is 16-7-1 all time versus Tulsa.
The Sooners are primed to do something big in 2011, and though it could happen, especially against a quality opponent like Tulsa, I just don’t see Oklahoma dropping the opener.
Especially in Norman.
Prediction: Oklahoma by two touchdowns
Louisiana-Lafayette at Oklahoma State
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Returning nine offensive and five defensive starters from its 11-2 offering in 2010, the Cowboys look primed to do something big in 2011.
The Rajin’ Cajuns, on the other hand, went 3-9 in 2010 and return just five starters to each side of the ball in 2011.
Oklahoma State is 7-0 all time against Louisiana-Lafayette.
Oklahoma State should be very confident coming out of this contest; what happens next remains to be seen.
Prediction: Oklahoma State wins big.
Rice at Texas
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The Longhorns return eight offensive and six defensive starters from their disappointing 5-7 team from 2010.
The Rice Owls return seven starters to both sides the ball from a team that finished 4-8.
Texas should be ready to prove that 2010 was but a blip on the otherwise successful Longhorn football radar when they face the Owls in Austin on September 3rd.
The Longhorns are 70-21-1 all time against Rice.
Texas is just too stacked with talented athletes to lose to the Owls in the opener.
Prediction: Texas by at least two touchdowns
SMU at Texas A&M
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As much improvement as SMU has made over the past two seasons (the Mustangs went 2-22 in 2007-8 and improved to 15-12 from 2009-10), the 2011 Aggies may be more than they can reasonably handle, especially at Kyle Field.
Texas A&M returns almost everyone (with the very big exception of LB Von Miller) while SMU similarly returns an impressive number of starters.
The Aggies are 41-29-7 all time against the Mustangs.
Straight up, the Aggies are just more talented, but this game will be closer than anticipated.
Prediction: Texas A&M by 10
Texas State at Texas Tech
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FCS Texas State is one year away from joining the ranks of the FBS via the WAC, but they will face both FBS Texas Tech and Wyoming in 2011 to get prepared for the move upwards.
Texas State went 4-7 in 2010 while the Red Raiders fought hard to achieve an 8-5 record.
Despite the fact that Texas Tech returns only 13 starters in 2011, they should be able to manage a win in the opener.
Prediction: Texas Tech by enough
Austin Peay at Cincinnati
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FCS Austin Peay and Cincinnati both struggled in 2010; the Governors finished 2-9 while the Bearcats went 4-8.
Cincinnati returns five offensive and a whopping 11 defensive starters in 2010 which should be enough to be victorious in the opener against Austin Peay.
Prediction: Cincinnati by two touchdowns
Fordham at Connecticut
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Vince Lombardi played football at Fordham which was once counted among the most elite teams in college football.
In 2010, FCS Fordham went 5-6 while its neighbor to the north UConn went 8-5 and made an unexpected visit to the BCS representing the Big East.
The Huskies return 17 starters in 2011, and they should open with a win against the Rams.
Prediction: UConn by a bunch
Murray State at Louisville
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The Cardinals return only 11 total starters to a team that went 7-6 in 2010 including a 31-28 victory over Southern Miss in the Beef O’ Brady’s Bowl.
FCS Murray State should be a good way for the Cardinals to kick off their second season under coach Charlie Strong.
Prediction: Louisville by two touchdowns
Buffalo at Pittsburgh
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Though it sounds like the Bills against the Steelers, in reality, it’s the Bulls versus the Panthers in the 2011 opener.
Though Pitt may have been disappointed with their 8-5 finish in 2010 (enough so to dismiss coach Dave Wannstedt), Buffalo went 2-10 last season and averaged only 14.2 points per game.
The Panthers should be able to easily extend their 2-0 all-time advantage against the Bulls.
Prediction: Pittsburgh wins big.
North Carolina Central at Rutgers
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Hailing from the MEAC FCS North Carolina Central struggled to a 3-8 finish in 2010.
Rutgers, on the other hand, returns 10 offensive and five defensive starters to a squad that went 4-8 last season—their worst mark since 2004.
It’s reasonable to expect that Rutgers will improve in 2011, and it is also rational to predict Rutgers over North Carolina Central.
Prediction: Rutgers wins.
USF at Notre Dame
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This is an interesting matchup for a delightful number of reasons.
First, you have previous Notre Dame coach Lou Holtz’s son leading USF against Dad’s former employer, then there is the fact that both these team’s enter 2011 under the leadership of a successful coach in his second season at a new institution where expectations are high.
Additionally, both these squads finished 8-5 in 2010.
Notre Dame and South Florida have never faced each other in football.
The Fighting Irish look to have the edge in this contest due to the obvious home-field advantage and secondly because they return 18 starters, six more than then USF’s 12.
Prediction: Notre Dame by seven
Marshall at West Virginia
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Marshall has never met in-state rival West Virginia. The series started in 1911, and the Mountaineers have since reeled off 10 consecutive victories including a thrilling 24-21 overtime win in 2010.
West Virginia is a dark horse candidate to become part of the BCS conversation in 2011 while Marshall hopes to improve in its second season under coach “Doc” Holliday.
It is hard to imagine 2011 being the year that West Virginia finally succumbs to the charms of Marshall. Watch for this game to be the coming out party of the new high-powered Mountaineer offense.
Prediction: West Virginia by 21
Arkansas State at Illinois
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Arkansas State finished 2010 4-8 while the Fighting Illini went 7-6 including a victory over Baylor in the Texas Bowl.
Illinois is 2-0 all time against Arkansas State.
Though both teams return a similar number of starters, it’s hard to imagine the Red Wolves being able to effectively stack up with Illinois at home.
Prediction: Illinois rolls.
Indiana vs. Ball State (in Indianapolis)
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The two schools from Indiana have clashed just five times in history, and the Hoosiers have won four of these contests.
The 2011 edition of the series will feature two teams that won a combined nine games in 2010. The biggest loss from last season’s squads is Indiana QB Ben Chappell who led the Hoosiers to a No. 14 rank in passing yards.
The MAC is 37-218-2 against the Big 10 and win No. 38 might just come during Week 1 of the 2011 season.
Prediction: Ball State in a wild one
Tennessee Tech at Iowa
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FCS Tennessee Tech finished at 5-6 in 2010 which included losses to top ranked TCU and Arkansas. Iowa went 8-5 last season and will spend 2011 retooling as they return only 10 total starters from 2010.
Despite the Hawkeye’s rebuilding campaign, they should be able to handle Tennessee Tech in the opener.
Prediction: Iowa by at least two touchdowns
Western Michigan at Michigan
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The Brady Hoke era at the Big House will begin Saturday, September 3rd, when the Broncos visit Ann Arbor.
Western Michigan returns six offensive and eight defensive starters from its 6-6 offering last season—and notably return QB Alex Carder who threw for 3,384 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2010.
Michigan is 5-0 all time against Western Michigan.
Though the Wolverines should earn Hoke his first “W,” the Bronco offense will offer a unique early season test, especially for a passing defense that finished 2010 ranked No. 112.
Prediction: Michigan in a closer game than expected
Youngstown State at Michigan State
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The Spartans return six offensive and six defensive starters from their 11-2, 2010 team that shared a piece of the Big Ten title with Ohio State and Wisconsin.
The Youngstown State Penguins were 3-8 last season and finished in last place in the Missouri Valley Conference.
Conditions look favorable for Sparty to be 1-0 going into their Week 2 home game against Florida Atlantic.
Prediction: Michigan State by a bunch
Minnesota at USC
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May be the best matchup in the Big Ten for Week 1; it’s the new Big Ten staring down the new Pac-12 in the opener.
The Golden Gophers have new coach Jerry Kill (from Northern Illinois) along with five offensive and nine defensive starters from 2010’s 3-9 team.
The Trojans, on the other hand, return six offensive and seven defensive starters in 2011.
USC is 5-1-1 all time against Minnesota.
The Golden Gophers should be an improved team in 2011, but it’s difficult to imagine them knocking off the Trojans at home; if this game was played in Minnesota, an upset might be more probable.
Prediction: USC by two touchdowns
Chattanooga at Nebraska
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The Cornhuskers will make their debut as a Big Ten football team by hosting the FCS Chattanooga Mocs from the Southern Conference.
Nebraska returns five offensive (including QB Taylor Martinez) and seven defensive starters in 2011 and will face a Chattanooga team that finished 2010 at the 6-5 mark.
It’s hard to conceive of the Cornhuskers dropping this game.
Prediction: Nebraska by a bunch
Akron at Ohio State
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We all know by now that both Ohio State coach Jim Tressel and five talented Buckeyes (headlined by QB Terrelle Pryor) won’t be on hand for the season opener against the Zips.
Though Akron will no doubt improve from their 2010 1-11 showing under the leadership of second-year coach Rob Ianello, really the Zips offer Ohio State a perfect opportunity to “test the waters.”
Rationally, it’s the stretch of three games at Miami (FL) and then hosting Colorado and Michigan State that will tell the tale of how the depleted Buckeyes will cope through the first part of 2011.
In seven tries, the Zips have only beaten Ohio State once—in 1894.
Prediction: Ohio State by enough
Indiana State at Penn State
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Regardless of who is named the starting quarterback at Penn State for 2011, the Nittany Lions (who return 15 starters from 2011) should be able to handle FCS Indiana State in the opener.
The Sycamores finished 2010 at 6-5 but should be no match for the boys from Happy Valley.
Prediction: Penn State by a bunch
Middle Tennessee at Purdue
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Middle Tennessee finished 2010 a disappointing 6-7 and will clash with a Purdue team that went 4-8 last season.
The Boilermakers, after going 4-2 in their first six games, dropped the final six games of the season including a 34-31 loss to Indiana to close out 2010.
Though an upset might seem to be looming, the Boilermakers will no doubt want to quickly right the ship and will be aided by returning a whopping 18 starters versus Middle Tennessee’s mark of only 12.
This plus home-field advantage gives Purdue the nod in Week 1.
The Boilermakers and Blue Raiders have never met previously.
Prediction: Purdue by a least a touchdown
UNLV at Wisconsin
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One of the Thursday night contests scheduled for Week 1, the Badgers and Rebels will storm out of the gates before most of the field.
Though Wisconsin will be rebuilding in 2011, they will be hosting a UNLV team that won only two contests in 2010 (over New Mexico and Wyoming who combined to go 4-20 last season).
The Badgers are 7-2 all time against the Rebels.
Prediction: Wisconsin wins big.
East Carolina vs. South Carolina (in Charlotte, NC)
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Every Carolina is involved in this matchup; yes, we have South Carolina against East Carolina in North Carolina.
This is a compelling matchup for a variety of reasons, one being that East Carolina lit it up through the air in 2010 (No. 8 overall) while the Gamecocks struggled defensively against the pass (No. 97 overall).
Still, the Pirates defense was porous in 2010, ranking No. 119, or second to last, in points allowed.
Both teams return a similar number of starters, and though it could get interesting if ECU starts shelling South Carolina through the air, I wouldn’t expect the Gamecocks to falter in the opener.
South Carolina is 10-5 all time against the Pirates; they haven’t met since 1999.
Prediction: South Carolina in a wild one.
UCLA at Houston
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It was in the 2010 game at UCLA that Houston lost both its starting and backup quarterbacks, basically shooting a hole in what looked to be a season where the Cougars could make a run at a conference title and more.
UCLA, on the other hand, sputtered to a 4-8 finish in 2010, despite high hopes that an improvement on the 7-6 finish in 2009 was possible.
Speed forward to this year and Houston QB Case Keenum has been granted another year of eligibility after his injury last season, and both teams are again hopeful that 2011 will be “the year.”
UCLA is 3-2 all time against Houston.
Prediction: Houston by 10
Mississippi State at Memphis
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Memphis hasn’t won a football game since September 18, 2010 when they beat Middle Tennessee 24-17 in Memphis.
Unfortunately and despite returning an impressive number of starters in 2011, the Tigers won’t be able to start winning again until at least the second game of the season (when they travel to Arkansas State).
Mississippi State is 33-10 overall against Memphis.
Prediction: Mississippi State by a bunch.
Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss
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Southern Miss scored almost 37 points per game in 2010 on their way to an 8-5 finish. Louisiana Tech, on the other hand, struggled to play consistently under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes and finished 5-7.
The Golden Eagles return more starters at skill positions and hold home-field advantage; these combined should be enough for Southern Miss to triumph over the Bulldogs.
Southern Miss is 30-13 all time against Louisiana Tech.
Prediction: Southern Miss by two touchdowns
Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane
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When the two met last season, Tulane only managed a six-point victory over FCS Southeastern Louisiana.
The Green Wave’s only statistical triumph in 2010 was passing yards where they ranked No. 38 overall. Luckily, Tulane returns starting QB Ryan Griffin in 2011 who along with six other offensive and seven defensive starters should be able to improve on their 4-8 mark in 2010.
Southeastern Louisiana went 2-9 in 2010 and finished last in the Southland conference.
At the end of the day, the Lions ought to provide Tulane the perfect spring board into the 2011 season.
Prediction: Tulane by more than two touchdowns
Charleston Southern at UCF
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The defending Conference USA champion Knights should have no problem handling FCS Charleston Southern (3-8 in 2010) in the opener in Orlando.
Prediction: UCF by a bunch
Stony Brook at UTEP
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UTEP only brings back three offensive starters (eight on defense) from their 2010 team that finished 6-7.
Still, and though it could get interesting, the Miners ought to be able to handle the Seawolves (6-5 in 2010) in their season debut in the Sun Bowl.
Prediction: UTEP in a closer game than expected
Army at Northern Illinois
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Both Army and Northern Illinois ran the ball really well last season; the Black Knights ranked No. 8 nationally in rushing yards while the Huskies ranked No. 7.
Both also return much of their offensive firepower from 2010 in 2011 and both return only four starters on defense.
This will be a close game which should be won by the Huskies who get the nod (despite losing their head coach) due to home-field advantage and by virtue of having a better defense in 2010, most importantly, a defense that was more effective at stopping the run.
Army won the only game between the two which was played in 1992.
Prediction: Northern Illinois in a close one
BYU at Ole Miss
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BYU is now independent, and the Rebels are now the “Black Bears;” it’s a provocative matchup in Oxford for Week 1.
Both teams return a bunch of starters from 2011 where BYU was more fruitful than Ole Miss (7-6 versus 4-8).
The Rebels are a bit of a mystery for 2011, but even with home-field advantage and a crowd eager for improvement, the Cougars should have a slight advantage with stability at quarterback and a strong finish in 2010.
Interestingly, these two schools have never met in football.
Prediction: BYU in a close one
Delaware at Navy
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Delaware came up one point short against Eastern Washington in the 2010 FCS Championship game. As good as FCS Delaware is and despite their 12-3 record last season, I just don’t see the Blue Hens upsetting the Midshipmen.
Could it happen? Absolutely. Delaware is a quality football program, but this is a fact that Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo and his team will be well aware of and more than likely be completely prepared for.
Prediction: Navy by enough
Bowling Green at Idaho
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Both these teams were relatively successful throwing the ball in 2010, and both struggled on the ground and defensively.
Overall, even with the loss of their quarterback, Idaho still ought to be the superior team, especially defensively speaking in this game.
Home-field advantage at the picturesque Kibbie Dome tips the scales further towards an Idaho victory.
The two teams have only met once before—in the 2009 Humanitarian Bowl when the Vandals won by one point.
Prediction: Idaho in a close one
South Carolina State at Central Michigan
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After going 12-2 and winning the MAC in 2009, the Chippewas dropped to 3-9 in 2010 which marked their worst finish since 2003.
Central Michigan returns seven offensive and six defensive starters in 2011 including QB Ryan Radcliff.
Even though FCS South Carolina State went 9-3 in 2010 and lost in the first round of the FCS playoffs, the Chippewa’s should be able to knock them off in Week 1 which will hopefully mark the beginning of their return to respectability.
Prediction: Central Michigan by at least a touchdown
Howard at Eastern Michigan
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Even though the Eagles of Eastern Michigan only managed two wins in 2010 (OT versus Ball State and against Buffalo), they ought to be able to score an early season “W” against FCS Howard who went 1-10 and finished in last place in the MEAC.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan wins one
Kent State at Alabama
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The Golden Flashes have the unenviable task of travelling to Tuscaloosa to face the Crimson Tide in the season opener.
Even with Alabama QB Greg McElroy gone and Kent State returning 10 offensive starters in 2011, don’t look for the Crimson Tide to fall prey to Kent State in Week 1.
Frankly, if the Tide plays with the determination they showed when they shellacked the Michigan State Spartans in the Capital One Bowl, the Golden Flashes may be in for a long afternoon.
Kent State has never played Alabama in football.
Prediction: The Tide rolls.
Ohio at New Mexico State
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Both Ohio and New Mexico State return their starting quarterbacks in 2011, and the Aggies will return seven defensive starters versus only four for the Bobcats.
Despite any perceived advantages on paper (including home field), New Mexico State did not play well enough in 2010 to make a win over Ohio (a bowl team) look probable.
The Aggies and Bobcats have not met before in football.
Prediction: Ohio by at least a touchdown
Villanova at Temple
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Will Villanova actually join the Big East in football? Well, that remains to be seen, but we do know that Villanova will face off with the MAC’s Temple for the third consecutive year.
Temple is actually behind in its all-time series with FCS (for now) Villanova by a mark of 13-15-2.
Villanova went 9-5 in 2010 and lost to eventual FCS Champion Eastern Washington in the semifinals of the FCS playoffs.
Temple, on the other hand, rode its outstanding defense (No. 16 nationally in scoring) to an 8-4 finish.
Gone for 2011 are Owls' coach Al Golden (to Miami FL) and six of their defensive starters.
So, can Villanova knock off Temple for the second time in three years? My guess is they will, and they will be at least partially motivated by the Big East’s lack of commitment.
Prediction: Villanova in a nail biter
New Hampshire at Toledo
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Both Toledo and FCS New Hampshire finished 2010 with a record of 8-5.
Toledo’s record included a narrow 34-32 loss to FIU in the Little Caesar’s Bowl, and New Hampshire’s mark included a 16-3 loss to Delaware (who went on to be the runner up in the FCS) in the quarterfinals of the FCS playoffs.
But, the Rockets return a whopping nine offensive (including their quarterback) and eight defensive starters in 2011.
Toledo’s bid for their first MAC title since 2004 starts with a victory over the Wildcats.
Prediction: Toledo by two touchdowns
South Dakota at Air Force
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FCS South Dakota went 4-7 in 2010 which included a stunning upset of Minnesota (41-38).
Air Force, on the other hand, went 9-4 last season including a 14-7 defeat of Georgia Tech in the Independence Bowl.
The Falcons return 14 overall starters in 2011 and will be fully aware of what happened to the Golden Gophers when they hosted the Coyotes last season.
Prediction: Air Force soars.
Boise State vs. Georgia (in Atlanta)
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And so we come to one of the two games that should have the college football world openly salivating by the end of the long, hot summer.
Indeed, other than the Oregon vs. LSU matchup, this is one of the top two games for 2011’s Week 1.
The storyline is fairly clear: it’s the Broncos (0-4 all time versus the SEC) who are primed to make a BCS run this season against a Georgia team who struggled through 2010 but look very promising for 2011.
Both return similar numbers of starters to both sides of the ball, and both return their starting quarterbacks.
For me, this game comes down to the venue; though Boise State impressively knocked off Virginia Tech last season in Landover Maryland, its other big win came against Oregon State in Boise. The only loss (and it was a freaky loss) came on the road in Nevada.
If this game was going to be played on a truly neutral field (and Atlanta is NOT neutral) or in Boise, you would have to give the Broncos the edge.
But, this game will be played in front of a raucous Bulldog crowd who will (along with their beloved team) be eager to prove that 2010 was just a slight diversion off the otherwise winning path.
Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, the Georgia fanbase, the team and the entire SEC will be eager for an opportunity to show the nation that even the very best non AQ-BCS team cannot touch an elite SEC team.
This will be a close, epic game.
Prediction: Georgia by a field goal
Colorado State at New Mexico
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One of the only Week 1 conference matchups the Rams versus Lobos game pits two of the 2010 MWC bottom dwellers looking to get off to a better start in 2011.
As bad as the Lobos were last season (1-11), they return almost everyone in 2011 while Colorado State brings back seven offensive and six defensive starters from their 3-9 offering.
Overall, the Rams are 33-25 against the Lobos.
For 2011’s meeting, we’ll give New Mexico the edge based on the flimsy defense of home-field advantage.
Prediction: New Mexico wins.
Cal Poly at San Diego State
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FCS Cal Poly went 7-4 in 2010 while San Diego State achieved a 9-4 mark including a 35-14 victory over Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl.
The Aztecs return seven offensive and five defensive starters in 2011 but will be without coach Brady Hoke who has fled eastward to Michigan.
San Diego State should have no problem defeating FCS Cal Poly in its opener.
Prediction: San Diego State by at least two touchdowns
Weber State at Wyoming
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Wyoming returns almost its entire starting unit in 2011 which should be well-seasoned after a dismal 3-9 finish in 2010.
The Cowboys went 7-6 only one year ago, and the opener against FCS Weber State (6-5 in 2010) should mark the beginning of their long road back to .500 and beyond.
Prediction: Wyoming by a bunch
Northern Arizona at Arizona
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What’s more interesting than what the Wildcats will do against FCS Northern Arizona in Week 1 is what the Wildcats will do with the rest of their 2011 season.
Will Arizona finally win more than eight games under Mike Stoops?
Though the answer to that question is unclear, it seems prudent to predict that the Wildcats will beat the Lumberjacks, thereby winning their first game since beating UCLA 29-21 last Halloween weekend.
Are there trees in Northern Arizona? I’m just saying...
Prediction: Arizona by a bunch
UC Davis at Arizona State
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The Sun Devils will begin their 2011 “dark horse” campaign on Thursday night, September 1st, when they host FCS UC Davis.
UC Davis is a Division I-AA (FCS) Independent team that went 6-5 in 2010.
It seems realistic to predict the Sun Devils will be 1-0 when they welcome Missouri to the desert on Friday, September 9th.
Prediction: Arizona State by a bunch
Fresno State vs. California (in San Francisco)
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Both Cal and Fresno State return seven offensive and five defensive starters in 2011, and both will be without their starting quarterback from 2010.
Cal struggled to a 5-7 mark last season which marked the first losing effort in nine years while Fresno State went 8-5 marking their fourth consecutive season over .500.
Really, it may be Fresno State’s defense that spells disaster for them against Cal. The No. 83 ranked scoring defense might be the perfect opponent to re-ignite the pistons on the Golden Bear offense for 2011.
Somewhat surprisingly, Cal is 0-2 against Fresno State.
Prediction: Cal by a touchdown
Colorado at Hawaii
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The Buffaloes showed sparks of hope towards the end of last season (after coach Dan Hawkins was dismissed) and return nine offensive and seven defensive starters for their first campaign as members of the new Pac-12.
Hawaii, on the other hand, returns stellar QB Bryant Moniz (who led the Warriors to a No. 1 ranking in passing yards) but lose all but two of the other offensive starters and only six defenders come back from the 10-4 team.
All travel and time concerns aside, Colorado should have the advantage in this game. It may come down to one team retooling (Hawaii) against a team that finally looks like they are going to play good again (Colorado).
Colorado and Hawaii have split their only two meetings.
Prediction: Colorado by 10
Oregon vs. LSU (in Arlington, TX)
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To me, this is the most attractive game of Week 1; yes, this is the one I will fantasize about when baseball highlights are all that remains on “Plays of the Week.”
Both Oregon and LSU have realistic national title aspirations, and these dreams of grandeur will end for one and continue for the other. Provocative.
Really, this game is better served by a neural location especially since both these teams have a clear advantage at home with raucous fan bases and loud venues.
At the end of the day, I’m going with LSU because, first they return more starters from 2010 and secondly they have the clear geographic advantage.
No matter how you slice it, there will be more Tigers than Ducks in Cowboy Stadium on September 3, 2011.
LSU is 2-1 against Oregon, and the two have not met since 1977.
Prediction: LSU in an “instant classic.”
Sacramento State at Oregon State
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Oregon State will return seven offensive and four defensive starters when they attempt to improve upon their disappointing 5-7 finish in 2010.
FCS Sacramento state went 6-5 last season, tying for a second place finish in the Big Sky conference.
It is hard to imagine that Mike Riley will be anything but eager to right his ship in Corvallis. This all begins with a win over Sacramento State.
Prediction: Oregon State by a bunch
Stanford at San Jose State
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Stanford is 49-14-1 all time against San Jose State, and it would seem prudent to predict that the Spartans won’t score win No. 15 over the Cardinal in 2011.
San Jose’s one bright spot, statistically speaking, was their passing game which ranked No. 45 nationally. But the 1-12 Spartans return to 2011 minus QB Jordan LaSecla who has graduated.
Stanford does have some questions to answer in 2011, but those will more than likely be addressed later in the season.
Prediction: Stanford by a bunch
Montana State at Utah
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Another Thursday night affair, Utah will kick off its first ever Pac-12 campaign by hosting FCS Montana State.
The Utes only return 13 starters from their 10-3 2010 team, but it seems unrealistic that they would drop the opener against Montana State who went 9-3 and lost in the second round of the 2010 FCS playoffs.
Prediction: Utah wins big.
Eastern Washington at Washington
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In this matchup, we have one of the more compelling cases for a FCS upset.
Eastern Washington went 13-2 in 2010 and captured the NCAA Division I (FCS) Championship with a 20-19 win over Delaware.
Washington, on the other side of coin, finally earned outgoing QB Jake Locker a bowl berth by going 6-6, an opportunity which was not wasted as the Huskies shocked Nebraska 19-7 in the Holiday Bowl.
But for 2011, gone are Jake Locker, five other offensive and four defensive starters.
This certainly does not spell sure disaster for a well-coached Huskie team nor does it mean that the Eagles have the upper hand in this game.
However, I personally like the angle of Eastern Washington being motivated to topple the state’s biggest college football team on their home turf.
It could happen, and if it does, it will be interesting to see how quickly everyone forgets about Washington’s rebuilding year and the fact that Eastern Washington is a very good football team.
Prediction: Eastern Washington in a nail biter
Idaho State at Washington State
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These two teams combined to win three total games in 2010.
Hardly the stuff “must-see” TV is made of.
Despite the gnashing of teeth these teams have no doubt caused their fans—though it is hard—to imagine Idaho State upsetting Washington State based completely on talent level and home-field “advantage.”
Prediction: Washington State wins one.
Missouri State at Arkansas
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There seems no reasonable argument that would refute the notion that the Razorbacks won’t be 1-0 when they meet New Mexico in Little Rock on September 10, 2011.
Prediction: Arkansas by a bunch
Utah State at Auburn
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Tiger fans will welcome back their defending national champions on Saturday, September 3rd when they face off against the Utah State Aggies.
However, only a mere seven starters will be back from the team that captured the big crystal football in 2010.
Even though Utah State returns eight offensive and five defensive starters in 2011, this is still a team that finished 4-8 and was ranked No. 94 in total offense and No. 101 in total defense by the end of last season.
That just doesn’t spell upset.
This will be Auburn and Utah State’s first meeting in football.
Prediction: Auburn by enough
Florida Atlantic at Florida
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Despite the monumental changes astir in Gainesville, it is difficult to envision the Gators dropping the home opener to a FAU team that went 4-8 in 2010.
The Gators are 1-0 versus FAU.
Realistically, Florida should remain unscathed until Tennessee comes calling during Week 3.
Prediction: Gators by a bunch
Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky (in Nashville, TN)
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Though I’m sure it makes sense why two teams from Kentucky are meeting in nearby Nashville, it still seems curious enough to comment on. Perhaps, the liquor and fireworks laws are more favorable in Tennessee?
The Wildcats and Hilltoppers have more in common than just the state of Kentucky; first, both coaches (Joker Phillips and Willie Taggert) played for the programs they now coach, secondly both are in their second season at the helm and third both return 17 starters from 2010.
Even with all the similarities at the end of the day, this is the matchup between an up-and-coming SEC team and a Sun Belt team that has only played FBS ball since 2009.
Kentucky is 2-0 all time versus Western Kentucky.
Prediction: Kentucky by a bunch
Montana at Tennessee
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Derek Dooley’s first season was full of gut-wrenching surprise finishes, but the first game of his second campaign in Knoxville should be devoid of any such drama.
FCS Montana went 7-4 and finished tied for third in the Big Sky conference in 2010 but should be no match for the Vols who return seven offensive and six defensive starters from their 6-7 offering.
Prediction: Tennessee wins big.
Elon at Vanderbilt
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Vanderbilt returns the most experienced squad in the FBS in 2011 with 11 offensive and eight defensive starters (plus two on special teams) coming back to campus.
After an ugly 2-10 finish in 2010, the Commodores will need all the help they can get to start to turn things around.
A win over FCS Elon (6-5 in 2010) will be a start.
Prediction: Vanderbilt wins.
North Texas at FIU
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The Mean Green and Golden Panthers will be one of only three conference games during Week 1 of the 2011 season.
With the home field, the momentum from last season’s performance (a 7-6 finish versus 3-9) and more returning starters, FIU gets the nod in this one.
FIU is 4-2 overall versus North Texas.
Prediction: FIU by two touchdowns
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